The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ThomasNicole]

About the Joker 2 sales ... well at least seems like Transformers One and The Wild Robot seems like both can try +40M OW 

[filmlover]

A studio only having one movie they are currently promoting means that one movie is bound to be the studio's submission for every movie (Universal is also promoting The Wild Robot and Wicked right now, but those are being targeted with movies with broader reach as family films). The teaser for The Wolf Man is now going to the one thing they submit for most movies since they're likely not going to start promoting next summer's tentpoles until Wicked comes out (the teaser for the live-action How to Train Your Dragon is obviously premiering in time for that, and it's reasonable to assume Jurassic World Rebirth will have a teaser ready since it and Wicked share the same male lead).

[CheeseWizard]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-9, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 13

New Sales since T-12: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 1.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 84

New sales: 45

Growth: 115%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 15

New sales: 4

Growth: 36%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 7/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 7/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.151x KFP4 for $0.7M

0.191x IO2 for $2.5M

0.084x DM4 for $2.3M

13.000x Garfield for $25.0M

 

Average: $1.8M (excluding Garfield)

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

9.900x Garfield for $5.7M

 

Hard to make much sense here of comps. The EA sales are fantastic, clearly that's attracting a crowd. Which is likely causing demand for Thursday to remain low. We'll probably only get a sense once Saturday showings are done.

Parts of the movie got leaked onto tiktok so I can kind of understand early access being great, though I wonder if this is gonna end up like The Flash, where EA put expectations too high and it ends up severely underperforming (or whatever happened there my memory is garbage)

Edited September 11 by CheeseWizard

[filmlover]

Piece by Piece will be having Early Access shows in Dolby Cinema 9 days before it opens on 10/2.

 

Piece By Piece DOLBY Early Access at an AMC Theatre Near You (amctheatres.com)

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

I definitely think this maybe is part of the problem lol. There´s so many viral posts mocking this movie over the endlessly amount of times they played the trailer in front of everything

 

That said, horror is always the more likely genre to have insane walkups. Maybe despite the presales suggesting low 10M, good WOM can push it to 15M or so, which should be fine for a cheap movie

That trailer was one of the most offputting unpleasant trailers ever. Of course I say this as somebody who is not a fan of these types of movies and had to see the godamm trailer at every live action movie I saw for the last 5 month but still I am probably not alone.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

Parts of the movie got leaked onto tiktok so I can kind of understand early access being great, though I wonder if this is gonna end up like The Flash, where EA put expectations too high and it ends up severely underperforming (or whatever happened there my memory is garbage)

 

Kids films that do weekend EA shows usually do really well in that slot. Especially when there's not a lot of kids programming in the market at the time. My issue is that the only comp I have for this release type is Garfield, which isn't providing thr best outlook.

 

The other realization I had is that the Saturday EA happens on the same day that the chain is running their community day promotion. They're offering a bunch of second run movies for free that morning. Tickets are fully sold out for all showings at this point, but it's probably driving traffic to the ticket buying site. People who couldn't get a free ticket to Paw Patrol in the morning might be noticing Transformers in the afternoon.

[TheFlatLannister]

12 hours ago, Ryan C said:

@TheFlatLannister Just a quick question. Are you gonna track how Speak No Evil is doing or not?

Maybe not. I’ve been quite busy we will see. 

[Flip]

Speak no Evil has a strong 94% golden egg score in South Korea, hopefully it can be well received here as well

[CheeseWizard]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kids films that do weekend EA shows usually do really well in that slot. Especially when there's not a lot of kids programming in the market at the time. My issue is that the only comp I have for this release type is Garfield, which isn't providing thr best outlook.

 

The other realization I had is that the Saturday EA happens on the same day that the chain is running their community day promotion. They're offering a bunch of second run movies for free that morning. Tickets are fully sold out for all showings at this point, but it's probably driving traffic to the ticket buying site. People who couldn't get a free ticket to Paw Patrol in the morning might be noticing Transformers in the afternoon.

Damn, so the numbers might be over-inflated?

[filmlover]

 

[JonathanMB]

I think the biggest problem for both Speak No Evil trailers is that there really isn't a clear hook other than "these are some real weird and creepy hosts!" No high-concept plot or line/shot that hooks you in the way that other horror/thriller breakouts have. I guess we'll see if reviews are enough to persuade people. 

[Krissykins]

$15m budget for Speak No Evil. 

[filmlover]

I could see a scenario where it performs similar to Barbarian ($10M opening/$40M total), another acclaimed September horror film that arrived flying under the radar but managed to pull a respectable run in the end.

[vafrow]

38 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Damn, so the numbers might be over-inflated?

 

The numbers are all legitimate, but yes, it might be overindexing for that particular day within the MTC4 chain. But with it showing a $5.7M EA total, it's clear that it's never going to hit that number. As I said, having a better comp than Garfield would help. The problem is that there's not too many recent weekend EA openings, and when there has been, I haven't always tracked it. 

[SpiderByte]

5 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

About the Joker 2 sales ... well at least seems like Transformers One and The Wild Robot seems like both can try +40M OW 

Wait is Joker looking under 40? How the hell did that happen?

[TomThomas]

8 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Wait is Joker looking under 40? How the hell did that happen?

It's not, tracking suggests 50-60.

[PrinceRico]

I just don't understand what is happening with the joker?  It's the musical aspect turning people off or are people just not interested?

[Ryan C]

23 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Speak No Evil

 

T-2

 

Thursday: 615 Seats Sold (53.3% Increase From Last Time)

(From 14 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 3:50PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Not a whole lot to say here. A few more showtimes were added to some specific theaters, though it's sales are nothing to go crazy about right now. 

 

Still thinking for an opening over $10M and early reviews being good definitely will help, but unless things really pick up tomorrow and Thursday, a breakout probably isn't gonna happen. 

 

Speak No Evil

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 793 Seats Sold (28.9% Increase From Last Time)

(From 15 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 3:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: If this can manage to get to 1,000 tickets sold by tomorrow once the first preview showings start (for whatever reason at 2:00PM), then that would be pretty impressive. 

 

Still looking at a preview gross of about $1M (I'd be very concerned if it was any lower than that) and an opening between $10M-$15M. 

Edited September 11 by Ryan C

[TinaDuraes]

1 hour ago, PrinceRico said:

I just don't understand what is happening with the joker?  It's the musical aspect turning people off or are people just not interested?

I think people just underestimated how much the first one really came out at the perfect time. Perfect movie going climate, perfect comic book movie climate, perfect political climate, etc. It really was catching lightning in a bottle.

 

So it's not surprising that a sequel that not even the most hardcore fans of the first one wanted with a new approach coming out half a decade later it's not doing as well.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local Regal (5pm)

 

Speak No Evil: 19/1028

 

COMPS

Blink Twice: 810k
The Crow: 844k
The Trap: $1.3m
AFraid: 950k