The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Transformers One: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

Garfield: $2.79M

KFP4: $2.23M

Trolls 3: $4.20M

 

Going close to $2.5M. 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 14 Tickets
Theater 2: 15 Tickets

 

Garfield: $18.79M
KFP4: $3.85M
Trolls 3: $3.72M
Paw Patrol 2: $1.31M

 

Umm....too early

 

Transformers One

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 13 Tickets
Theater 2: 10 Tickets

 

Garfield: $2.40M
KFP4: $2.19M
Trolls 3: $3.16M

 

Still aiming around $2.5M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 19 Tickets

Theater 2: 25 Tickets

 

Garfield: $9.51M

KFP4: $4.68M

Trolls 3: $3.86M

Paw Patrol 2: $1.47M

 

Most comps inching up. Guessing around $7M-$9M

[vafrow]

On 9/18/2024 at 5:45 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 54

New Sales: 23

Growth: 71%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 4.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 40

New sales: 17

Growth: 74%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/1

Early Evening: 29/6

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 9/3

Dolby 3D: 21/4

IMAX: 16/4

4DX: 8/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.163x KFP4 for $0.8M

0.240x IO2 for $3.1M

0.077x DM4 for $2.1M

3.000x Garfield for $5.8M

0.545x GB:FE for $2.6M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

Well, it finally got the kick it needed. Later than I hoped, but we're back to something reasonable here, especially if it's indicative of growth curve we'll see as walk ups. Getting to low $3M range, plus strong EA shows puts $4M on the table.

 

Growth is heavily concentrated in the early shows, likely an indication of families showing up.

 

It's important to note that this gained on all comps, including Garfield, which was at such a low baseline that moderate sales at the end were creating a high growth curve. To outpace that is impressive, especially when it was flat yesterday.

 

Transformers One, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 80

New Sales: 26

Growth: 48%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 6.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows (15 minutes before showtime)

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 62

New sales: 22

Growth: 55%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 8/1

Early Evening: 45/6

Late Evening: 27/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 13/3

Dolby 3D: 29/4

IMAX: 27/4

4DX: 11/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.190x KFP4 for $0.9M

0.219x IO2 for $2.8M

0.051x DM4 for $1.4M

2.667x Garfield for $5.1M

0.541x GB:FE for $2.5M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

 It didn't maintain the momentum I hoped. It's still not a bad final day, but all the comps did better.

 

This track has been all over the place for me though,, so I'm reluctant to make any bold predictions here. Transformers is also a walk up friendly franchise, so we'll see how that goes.

 

And I know studios aren't thinking of trackers when deciding release strategies, but I really do dislike all of these early access shows. I'm pretty sure 4 of 5 locations in my sample having them has thrown off the tracking.

[vafrow]

The Substance, western GTA (southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday previews 

 

Theatres: 3

Showtimes: 6

Sales: 16

 

I've been following this off and on for the last week. It launched with some good up front demand, but then has been quiet.

 

It is getting a wide distribution with MTC4 though. When looking at Friday showtimes, about 2/3rds of locations in Canada are playing it. Only half of them have Thursday previews though.

Edited 6 hours ago by vafrow

[CheeseWizard]

56 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 80

New Sales: 26

Growth: 48%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 6.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows (15 minutes before showtime)

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 62

New sales: 22

Growth: 55%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 8/1

Early Evening: 45/6

Late Evening: 27/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 13/3

Dolby 3D: 29/4

IMAX: 27/4

4DX: 11/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.190x KFP4 for $0.9M

0.219x IO2 for $2.8M

0.051x DM4 for $1.4M

2.667x Garfield for $5.1M

0.541x GB:FE for $2.5M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

 It didn't maintain the momentum I hoped. It's still not a bad final day, but all the comps did better.

 

This track has been all over the place for me though,, so I'm reluctant to make any bold predictions here. Transformers is also a walk up friendly franchise, so we'll see how that goes.

 

And I know studios aren't thinking of trackers when deciding release strategies, but I really do dislike all of these early access shows. I'm pretty sure 4 of 5 locations in my sample having them has thrown off the tracking.

How big do you think early access is gonna be overall? The movie already made 2 million in China over 3 days of early access if that’s of any use. 

[cubsfan]

52 minutes ago, vafrow said:

The Substance, western GTA (southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday previews 

 

Theatres: 3

Showtimes: 6

Sales: 16

 

I've been following this off and on for the last week. It launched with some good up front demand, but then has been quiet.

 

It is getting a wide distribution with MTC4 though. When looking at Friday showtimes, about 2/3rds of locations in Canada are playing it. Only half of them have Thursday previews though.

After seeing it last night (amazing!) WOM will be strong either way. If you love horror specifically body horror this delivers in a holy shit kind of way.

[vafrow]

12 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

How big do you think early access is gonna be overall? The movie already made 2 million in China over 3 days of early access if that’s of any use. 

 

I'm probably in a bad place to judge because it did so well in EA in my sample, with only a lacklustre Garfield as an EA comp. My suspicion is that it's EA performance was skewed by the Community Day promotion the chain had running, with free movies playing earlier in the day that sold out days prior, with TOne benefitting from spillover.

 

That said, for Garfield, which had similar amount of EA shows, the breakdown was $575K EA, $1.925M for previews.

 

I think EA shows will be weigh a bit heavier here, but that's more intuition than anything at this point. Maybe a 1:3 ratio for EA to previews.

[AniNate]

I do wonder just how much of a net positive impact these EA shows have if any. Don't think I've seen a movie that has benefited from them in eventual weekend or legs yet. Seems they mostly just confuse people.

[filmpalace]

51 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

After seeing it last night (amazing!) WOM will be strong either way. If you love horror specifically body horror this delivers in a holy shit kind of way.

Seeing it for the second time tonight and I can't wait. Truly hope this can reach a bigger audience through WOM, because it deserves it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Transformers One MTC1 Thursday:

overall 2704 shows 17408/499391

 

Transformers One MTC1 Friday:

overall 5770 shows 24696/1051701

 

Not able to get dollar value with the new method. EA also was not working for some reason. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Menor the Destroyer

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Transformers One MTC1 Thursday:

overall 2704 shows 17408/499391

 

Transformers One MTC1 Friday:

overall 5770 shows 24696/1051701

 

Not able to get dollar value with the new method. EA also was not working for some reason. 

Hmmm. Garfield was at 11685 tickets sold on T-1, and KFP4 was at 27688 tickets on T-1. That would put it 2.9m previews if it follows Garfield or 2.4m previews if it follows the pace of Panda 4. However, I imagine both are more MTC2 heavy and skewed younger.
 

Mutant Mayhem which had the same patterns of geek friendly-family friendly Paramount IP live-action to animation, loads of EA that arguably decreased previews and similar reviews. It was at 32578 tickets. Similar sort of pace, puts it at 2M but TMNT had discount Tuesdays and summer which should shrink comps some. It also didn’t have as much PLFs I imagine.

 

Thinking around 2-2.5M previews without EA personally.

[WebSurfer]

From what I’m seeing, looks like somewhere between +30 to +40 for Tone this weekend.

Edited 2 hours ago by WebSurfer

[vafrow]

42 minutes ago, YM! said:

Hmmm. Garfield was at 11685 tickets sold on T-1, and KFP4 was at 27688 tickets on T-1. That would put it 2.9m previews if it follows Garfield or 2.4m previews if it follows the pace of Panda 4. However, I imagine both are more MTC2 heavy and skewed younger.
 

Mutant Mayhem which had the same patterns of geek friendly-family friendly Paramount IP live-action to animation, loads of EA that arguably decreased previews and similar reviews. It was at 32578 tickets. Similar sort of pace, puts it at 2M but TMNT had discount Tuesdays and summer which should shrink comps some. It also didn’t have as much PLFs I imagine.

 

Thinking around 2-2.5M previews without EA personally.

 

What's funny is that I track format sales in a fair amount of detail and I never actually incorporate that into my analysis in the end.

 

TOne for my data has no regular showings. Everything is Dolby or higher (with lots of 3D). It's probably going to push the ATP higher. Especially since comps like Garfield and KFP4 weren't getting a lot of premium theatres, with Furiosa and Dune getting the LPFs.

 

A reason for optimism at least.

[CheeseWizard]

If we’re looking for a reason for pessimism, apparently it’s on track to bomb in Spanish-Latin speaking countries, though that could be due to that particular dub’s widely hated casting choices of a singer to play Megatron and an apparent sex offender to play bumblebee. Could this be of concern?

[AniNate]

That does sound like a pretty bad judgment call on the part of international distribution, but I wouldn't think that means anything as far as English language domestic sales are concerned. Wasn't anticipating real great international turnout anyway. Might explain why it's doing abnormally terrible in Mexico though.

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by AniNate

[CompoundTheGains]

Some Terrifier 3 numbers that I am now tracking and will update weekly:   
9/18/2024   
Michigan -- 38 theaters.   
432 tickets sold across all showings on Thursday, October 10. 
That’s (on average) 11.3684211 tickets sold per theater. 
 
Most sold tickets:   
MJR Southgate Cinema with 53 tickets sold 
AMC Livonia 20 with 38 tickets sold 
Cinemark Southland Center and XD with 28 tickets sold 
Celebration! Cinema Lansing & IMAX with 25 tickets sold

Edited 2 hours ago by CompoundTheGains

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 9/19/2024 
Massachusetts -- 21 theaters 
476 tickets sold across all showings on Thursday, October 10. 
That’s (on average) 22.666667 tickets sold per theater. 
 
Most sold tickets: 
AMC Methuen 20 with 91 tickets sold 
Cinemark West Springfield 15 and XD with 72 tickets sold 
AMC Liberty Tree Mall 20 with 70 tickets sold 
AMC Dartmouth Mall 11 with 50 tickets sold 
AMC DINE-IN Framingham 16 with 36 tickets sold. 
3 of the theaters do not yet have a pre-sale ticket sold (not sure when they were opened up for pre-sale).

Edited 2 hours ago by CompoundTheGains

[Flopped]

2 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Seeing it for the second time tonight and I can't wait. Truly hope this can reach a bigger audience through WOM, because it deserves it.

 

I've also seen it twice already. It's such an experience. Idk if the average person will like it, but it will 100% become a genuine cult classic with a long long life and theatrical showings years from now. 

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Transformers One MTC1 Thursday:

overall 2704 shows 17408/499391

 

Transformers One MTC1 Friday:

overall 5770 shows 24696/1051701

 

Not able to get dollar value with the new method. EA also was not working for some reason. 

For Friday : Comparaison ( with 10% up with Imax and Dolby Screen) :

 

Trolls 3 : 24520/607494 349759.46 4099 shows +4531 ( Comp : 8,9M)

KFP 4 : 47914/810715 708369.90 5454 shows +12040 ( Comp : 8,8M)

Paw Patrol 2 : 35529/452902 446536.43 3039 shows +7245 ( comp : 5,2M)

 

Probably around 8M for true Friday (11M with previews) if the walkups are good. With the 45% jump for Sat and 40% drop for Sun , the OW will be around 30-31M. 

 

[misterpepp]

Smile 2 on sale Sep 30

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3  9/19/24 
Colorado -- 26 theaters 
526 tickets sold across all showings on Thursday, October 10. 
That’s (on average) 20.2307692 tickets sold per theater. 
 
Most sold tickets: 
Cinemark Carefree Circle XD and IMAX with 57 tickets sold 
AMC Westminster Promenade 24 with 53 tickets sold 
Cinemark Tinsletown Colorado Springs and XD with 50 tickets sold 
Cinemark Century Bel Mar 16 and XD with 38 tickets sold 
 
1 theater did not yet have a pre-sale ticket sold (not sure when it was opened up for pre-sale there).

Edited 1 hour ago by CompoundTheGains