The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Imagine someone opening 6 months ago the club "Joker 2 OW under It ends with Us OW" 🫣

I'm sadly not that lucky, given that I opened a "Joker 2 will be the biggest movie of the year" club after the actors' strike commenced last year. I look like a massive idiot now. I'm still shocked that it's now set to potentially open to less than half of the first movie's launch. And you know word of mouth will make Batman v Superman look like My Big Fat Greek Wedding by comparison, especially if the leaks are true. Add in the quadrupled budget this time around...

[toutvabien]

19 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I mean it's still a huge drop, sure, but it feels like apathy is much stronger domestically. If the first one performed domestically like in the rest of the world, it would've easily taken the highest grossing R rated DOM until Deadpool & Wolverine, but maybe those US controversies hurt it because mass shootings is a much more sensitive topic in US than overseas.

Will for sure be interesting to break it down. My main point of conflict here is that I think the first one's success was a result of the whole globe aligning on equal measure/level of interest. I'm sure it still was probably a no-show in certain markets, but I believe in most of the world it was a similarly-sized phenomon. And I believe most billion dollar blockbusters of that year other than Star Wars made 2/3 of their box office outside of North America. Measuring stuff as "a bigger breakout in the rest of the world" misses the nunace of stuff like Joker and Avatar being huge all over, Fast and Furious mainly driven by China in its last few installments, Venom and Aquaman massively overperforming there, Europe carrying Bond and the % of consistent show-up each market had during peak MCU.

 

This sequel looks like it will drop by 60% or so in America, but it will be interesting to see in which parts of the world it will hold better or worse than its predecessor. I'm sure it may even grow in a few markets, while there are others that may see a bigger dive than the US. Varried apathy & interest, very much unlike the overperforming/phenomenon path the first one saw everywhere.

[leoh]

3 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Joker 2 MTC1

 

EA:

23187/52615, 177 shows

 

Thu:

46965/978602, 5049 shows

 

Fri:

33670/1008095, 5226 shows

 

Low numbers, similar to/under Marvels and The Flash at the same point. 

so you’d say Joker may get an under 50M ow just like The Marvels did?

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm sadly not that lucky, given that I opened a "Joker 2 will be the biggest movie of the year" club after the actors' strike commenced last year. I look like a massive idiot now. I'm still shocked that it's now set to potentially open to less than half of the first movie's launch. And you know word of mouth will make Batman v Superman look like My Big Fat Greek Wedding by comparison, especially if the leaks are true. Add in the quadrupled budget this time around...

Funny comparison actually, as My Big Fat Greek Wedding lost three quarters of its audience from original to sequel. 
 

A My Big Fat Greek Wedding Style drop would see Joker 2 make $250m worldwide. 

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

so you’d say Joker may get an under 50M ow just like The Marvels did?

I wouldn’t worry about a Marvels style drop. The drop between Captain Marvel and The Marvels was -$894m. 
 

For that to happen again, this would need to make $184m worldwide. 

[vafrow]

23 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Everyone is waiting for Art The Clown instead of Joker.

 

What's funny is that with Smile 2 tickets up for sale today, how much that poster feels like it could be a poster for Joker Folie a Deux. Especially with a pop singer angle to it. Throw in Terrifier as another clown based movie, Joker is a movie that weirdly doesn't stand out that well.

[Firepower]

15 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

And you know word of mouth will make Batman v Superman look like My Big Fat Greek Wedding by comparison, especially if the leaks are true.

Not really, let's not go to extremes, it still has much better reception so far than what Batman vs Superman had on release, it was just panned across the board.

Edited 2 hours ago by Firepower

[leoh]

2 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Yeah the pace is one thing that is slightly odd, I almost wonder if I'm missing some data. Need to check that.

I think @TheFlatLannister was seeing this odd pace in Florida as well the other day.

 

 

 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 minute ago, leoh said:

I think @TheFlatLannister was seeing this odd pace in Florida as well the other day.

 

 

 

 

 

Hurricane caused several MTC shutdowns so pace has been wonky. Might update later today as everything seems to be back online

[vale9001]

39 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm sadly not that lucky, given that I opened a "Joker 2 will be the biggest movie of the year" club after the actors' strike commenced last year. I look like a massive idiot now. I'm still shocked that it's now set to potentially open to less than half of the first movie's launch. And you know word of mouth will make Batman v Superman look like My Big Fat Greek Wedding by comparison, especially if the leaks are true. Add in the quadrupled budget this time around...

 

 

well i was on the train of "the barbie of the year" 

 

of course not like 650M final but in terms of the pop culture event of the year. 

[Cmasterclay]

Having regular non-movie people at work tell me they heard Joker 2 is bad, they fumbled it hard.

[AniNate]

That would seem to track with my hypothesis that Venice diluted interest, even if it was indirectly.

[Firepower]

21 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Having regular non-movie people at work tell me they heard Joker 2 is bad, they fumbled it hard.

What did they do when they heard Ayer's Suicide Squad is bad? Or BvS?

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, Firepower said:

What did they do when they heard Ayer's Suicide Squad is bad? Or BvS?

Audiences were less picky, especially about superhero movies, back then. Also a huge part of Joker's appeal was its perceived quality, all the reviews and Golden Lion buzz and stuff helped push it to heights.

[ZeeSoh]

Moderation:

 

Please keep discussions here on topic. Anything tracking related is OK, but discussions regarding reviews, international gross, domestic gross, etc are better to be had in the main Joker thread. 

[AniNate]

I don't think those two movies are comparable in good faith anyway because neither of them had early embargo lifts. There wasn't any kind of clear media narrative about their quality yet at this time before their releases.

 

 

Edited 43 minutes ago by AniNate