The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

4 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-23

 

Tickets sold: 107

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 17

 

Don't have comps yet, but this seems like a solid start for something that will have most of its sales in the final days (according to those that tracked the previous Venom movies)

 

Cool. I’m seeing the same thing, in NY and LA it’s also selling well. I have just taken a look at Orlando major theaters and it’s also selling well over there. So hopefully @TheFlatLannister will be able to give us a look at first day of pre sales in Florida.
 

Thursday 5pm Venom Fan Event screenings are doing particularly well, with already over 50% occupancy most of them. ATP will also be high since it’s taking in all PLFs and IMAX.

 

Both Venom 1 and 2 were walk ups heavy anyways, let’s see how this one plays out. 

Edited 9 hours ago by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-23 *First 12 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
618	2137	126946	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-23

(0.729x) of Joker: Folie a Deux ???

(0.456x) of Beetlejuice $4.46M

(1.063x) of Alien $6.91M

(0.546x) of Dune 2 $5.08M

(0.103x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $3.96M

Comps AVG: $5.10M

 

Not a bad start, but also not a great start for a CBM. Doesn't feel remotely like a $100M OW to me, but we shall see. Behind Joker 2 at the same point in time. 

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-23 *First 12 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
618	2137	126946	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-23

(0.729x) of Joker: Folie a Deux ???

(0.456x) of Beetlejuice $4.46M

(1.063x) of Alien $6.91M

(0.546x) of Dune 2 $5.08M

(0.103x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $3.96M

Comps AVG: $5.10M

 

Not a bad start, but also not a great start for a CBM. Doesn't feel remotely like a $100M OW to me, but we shall see. Behind Joker 2 at the same point in time. 

How

[TheFlatLannister]

45 minutes ago, leoh said:

So Joker most likely to get ~6M Thursday… if so how much do you think Joker would get Opening Weekend? Is there any considerable risk of an under 50M ow for Joker?

Probably $6.5M+ maybe even $7M when accounting for Monday EA

 

idk Empire was saying $55M-$65M so maybe he's expecting really good IM. Same IM as Joker 2019 and it goes under $50M

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-23 *First 12 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
618	2137	126946	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-23

(0.729x) of Joker: Folie a Deux ???

(0.456x) of Beetlejuice $4.46M

(1.063x) of Alien $6.91M

(0.546x) of Dune 2 $5.08M

(0.103x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $3.96M

Comps AVG: $5.10M

 

Not a bad start, but also not a great start for a CBM. Doesn't feel remotely like a $100M OW to me, but we shall see. Behind Joker 2 at the same point in time. 

oh cool, I think at t-23 Joker already had like 7 days of sales, right? So basically Venom in 12 hours sold 73% as much as Joker 3 first days of sales. Let’s see how it plays out on the coming days.

 

Hopefully people will understand you’re not comparing 1st day vs 1st but instead t-23 vs t-23, if it keeps the pace it’ll improve quite well against the comps.

Edited 7 hours ago by leoh

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-23 *First 12 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
618	2137	126946	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-23

(0.729x) of Joker: Folie a Deux ???

(0.456x) of Beetlejuice $4.46M

(1.063x) of Alien $6.91M

(0.546x) of Dune 2 $5.08M

(0.103x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $3.96M

Comps AVG: $5.10M

 

Not a bad start, but also not a great start for a CBM. Doesn't feel remotely like a $100M OW to me, but we shall see. Behind Joker 2 at the same point in time. 

 

The walk-ups will determine if it gets that high, but I genuinely feel like we're only going to be setting ourselves up for disappointment if we expect Venom: The Last Dance to just automatically open with $100M. 

 

I'll track the movie in a few hours, but I'd still expect an opening between $70M-$80M. 

[iEnri]

Venom is internationally heavy and walk up heavy as well, so it should be fine. However, those early 100M projections are already failing apart which is not a great start, lets be real.

Edited 8 hours ago by iEnri

[AnthonyJPHer]

Venom 3 reminds me a lot of Twisters tbh. Low presales but great walk ups

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Venom 3 reminds me a lot of Twisters tbh. Low presales but great walk ups

Or Venom 2

 

Legion had a <$42M OW club based on presales, which it ended up beating almost in its opening day

[leoh]

1 hour ago, iEnri said:

Venom is internationally heavy and walk up heavy as well, so it should be fine. However, those early 100M projections are already failing apart which is not a great start, lets be real.

comps are not first day of pre sales vs first day, right? So as it’s clear it’s 12h of pre-sales vs movies that at t-23 had already many days of pre-sales. Taking Joker comp., Venom in 12h sold 73% as much as Joker 3 days of pre sales (If I’m not mistaken, Joker at t-23 had already 3 days of sales accumulated). So let’s see how it plays out. It’s a pretty short pre sales window for a CBM. Pace will be really important given the short time it has for pre sales.

Edited 7 hours ago by leoh

[leoh]

11 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Or Venom 2

 

Legion had a <$42M OW club based on presales, which it ended up beating almost in its opening day

Exactly, and if I’m not mistaken same thing happened with Venom (2018). I remember Lady Gaga fanbase was rivalling Venom cuz it opened at the same day as A Star Is Born 😅  

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

oh cool, I think at t-23 Joker already had like 7 days of sales, right? So basically Venom in 12 hours sold 73% as much as Joker 7 first days of sales. Let’s see how it plays out on the coming days.

 

Hopefully people will understand you’re not comparing 1st day vs 1st but instead t-23 vs t-23, if it keeps the pace it’ll improve quite well against the comps.

This isn't true

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by HummingLemon496

[leoh]

45 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

This isn't true

 

 

I just checked it out… in fact, Joker started pre sales at t-25 not at 30. You can see the T-25 tracking here.

 

So basically, Venom sold in 12h 73% as much as Joker sold in 3 days (t-25,t-24,t-23) in FL.

 

thanks.

Edited 7 hours ago by leoh

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-3) 

20 showtimes/731 tix sold (+108)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-3) [???]

1.62x Beetlejuice 2 (T-3) [15.88m]
2.21x AQP Day One (T-3) [15.03m]
3.02x Trap (T-3) [6.64m]

 

This is decent pace, especially considering reviews aren’t good.

Joker 2 Previews (T-2) 

20 showtimes/843 tix sold (+112)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-2) [???]

1.54x Beetlejuice 2 (T-2) [15.09m]
1.99x AQP Day One (T-2) [13.53m]
2.97x Trap (T-2) [6.53m]

 

Bad day pace wise but considering the numbers I’m getting don’t reflect themselves in other markets it doesn’t move any needle for me. Still thinking ~7m, not sure if they’ll throw in the fan event or if they’ll spread that out. Tomorrow it should sell at least 120 tickets hopefully, and if it does so the final comp with Deadpool will come out to 12.1m, which is a decent # but as I explained in an earlier post Joker will definitely overindex by a fair amount

[Ryan C]

On 9/30/2024 at 6:34 PM, Ryan C said:

 

Joker Folie à Deux

 

T-3 and T-0

 

Monday, September 30 - Fan Event Showings: 1,755 Seats Sold (3.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, October 3 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 5,532 Seats Sold (37.8% Increase From Last Time)

= 7,287 Seats Sold (27.7% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 6:30PM Eastern Time

 

More on this tonight!

 

Joker: Folie à Deux

 

T-2

 

Thursday: 6,481 Seats Sold (17.1% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 11:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Was going to originally wait untill Wednesday to see how this was doing, but I thought it would be better to track this Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (just before previews start) so I could get a better look at how it's pacing in the final week of pre-sales. 

 

Though this isn't amazing, I'm actually surprised at the jump this had from yesterday. I didn't think it would be over 10%, but it is and if it keeps pacing like this for the next two days, then maybe we'll be a preview number in the $7M range. Hopefully more (including EA screenings)

 

Still, that's barely more than half of the $13.3M that the first Joker earned in previews back in 2019 and word-of-mouth definitely isn't going to do this movie any favors. 

 

We'll see how it does tomorrow and on Thursday, but I'd predict a preview number (at best) between The Marvels' $6.6M and The Flash's $9.7M. 

[crazymoviekid]

22 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Joker II

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 41 Tickets

Theater 2: 53 Tickets

 

BB: $11.24M

Alien: Romulus: $17.97M

Dune 2: $14.24M

Aquaman 2: $11.75M

The Marvels: $4.22M

John Wick 4: $8.45M

 

Idk man. Sales by me are fine. Only way this is going down is if it plays like an MCU title. $9M+ for now

Joker II

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 51 Tickets

Theater 2: 73 Tickets

 

BB: $13.24M

Alien: Romulus: $17.52M

Dune 2: $12.92M

Aquaman 2: $13.61M

The Marvels: $4.65M

John Wick 4: $8.56M

 

This could still swing low, but the strongest average is around $13M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 63 Tickets

Theater 2: 99 Tickets

 

BB: $29.36M

Alien: Romulus: $64.71M

Dune 2: $19.04M

Aquaman 2: $33.05M

The Marvels: $12.03M

John Wick 4: $21.18M

 

A little scattershot right now, but I'll go for $20M

[Pinacolada]

Yeah im not gonna sweat one way or the other on Venom 3s presales too much, as I remember both Venom 1 and 2 surprising late in the game with their walkups. I imagine this will be similar, though I recognize 2024 is a different game

 

I will however say that there really isn't much of a hook with Venom 3 other than come see Tom Hardy do this with his buddy Venom again, and "This is the last one", which rings a little hollower than something like The Dark Knight Rises for example. 

 

Venom 2 had Carnage who was a massive villain that everyone knows. We don't really know who or what the villain of this movie is except for these generic spider looking Aliens? I know Knull is hinted at in the recent trailer but that means nothing to non comic book nerds and he's not even shown. Just mentioned. Visually, it also just looks a lot weaker imo

 

I think positive reactions and reviews will be big here. I know it's Venom and we shouldn't expect much, but I honestly think this could be the best received of the 3 and be legitimate fresh on RT. That may be enough to get people to be like "damn, apparently it's pretty good. There's been fuck all else in terms of blockbusters for over a month other than a bad Joker movie and nothing after it for weeks. I'll check it out."

Edited 7 hours ago by Pinacolada

[lorddemaxus]

The only thing that cautions me from late walkups like people are expecting is that Venom 2 had pretty terrible WoM. Like it did shit by any metric you want to measure WoM and I don’t see people being as interested in a sequel to a movie they didn’t like.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, leoh said:

oh cool, I think at t-23 Joker already had like 7 days of sales, right? So basically Venom in 12 hours sold 73% as much as Joker 3 first days of sales. Let’s see how it plays out on the coming days.

 

Hopefully people will understand you’re not comparing 1st day vs 1st but instead t-23 vs t-23, if it keeps the pace it’ll improve quite well against the comps.

Yeah T-x comp to T-x

 

I don't really like comparing first day to first day because numbers may look really promising at first, but once it switches to T-x vs T-x, numbers usually drop drastically and just causes unnecessary panic. 

[Flip]

Venom 3 First Day (T-23)

 

25 showtimes/79 tix sold

 

1.14x AQP Day One First Day [7.75m]
.39x Joker 2 First Day [???]*
.18x Deadpool 3 First Day [6.93m]

 

Not great, so it will have to rely on having an insane finish to reach the $100m mark.
 

* i likely won’t be using Joker as a comp going forward, but I wanted to represent how Joker is really over performing in my sample