The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

8 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

In the case of Latin American dub, all the dialogues and songs will be on spanish. The voices for Elphaba and Glinda are actors who portrayed them in (mexican) musicals.

 

Yeah i read about It. At this point it's gonna be the same for every country. Universal already made It with dear Evan hensen. 

[filmlover]

I'm actually feeling good about the rest of the year now that we have nowhere to go but up after witnessing one of the most embarrassing flops ever. Even the early signs for Gladiator II seem confident in the film itself. Hopefully some of the smaller titles like Here and A Complete Unknown and Nosferatu (as well as specialty fare with some commercial potential like We Live in Time, Anora, A Real Pain, etc.) are able to provide positive news as well.

[AniNate]

I don't know if we're at the nowhere to go but up point yet. Rest of the month looks pretty blah though hopefully Venom 3 holds better its second weekend than Five Nights did. Way things are looking we're about to be losing around $100mil again on 2023. 

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by AniNate

[leoh]

35 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I still think Moana 2 will win the battle here. It’s getting all PLFs as well isn’t it? And basically no competition until Mufasa, interestingly 

nope, Moana is not getting all PLFs. It’ll share them with Wicked and Gladiator. The share it’ll get in the PLFs will depend heavily on a possible Wicked and Gladiator breakout. Wicked should get a bigger opening weekend than BJBJ (111 million). Yet it’ll have almost no prime time IMAX showing (at least in NY and LA the only prime time IMAX showing it has is at AMC Universal theater, for obvious reasons lol). So I’m pretty sure IMAX will give it some prime time showings for the thanksgiving weekend.

 

as Shawn said, the over-performance of Wicked will certainly have an impact  over Moama box office. Both appeal for the very same demographics, both are female driven musicals, Wicked likely will skew a bit more adult audience though.

 

I think Moana pre sales start next week, then we’ll have a better idea of what will happen.

Edited 5 hours ago by leoh

[AniNate]

Impressive as Wicked's presales are, I still think it's gonna be the move that loses out on Thanksgiving PLF if anyone does. Moana evidently has even bigger buzz if Quorum is to be believed, and it will surely dominate the matinee showtimes. Gladiator may still get the late nights if it has a respectable opening, or possibly share those with Wicked if late night audiences prove to show up for that.

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Impressive as Wicked's presales are, I still think it's gonna be the move that loses out on Thanksgiving PLF if anyone does. Moana evidently has even bigger buzz if Quorum is to be believed, and it will surely dominate the matinee showtimes. Gladiator may still get the late nights if it has a respectable opening, or possibly share those with Wicked if late night audiences prove to show up for that.

oh yeah I doubt IMAX or Dolby will give Moana their late night showings

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, vafrow said:

There's a lot going on, so I thought I'd do a bit of an omnibus update on some of the tracks. I'll try and do proper updates for Gladiator, Wicked and a quick count on Terrifier tomorrow. Will aim for Smile and Venom this weekend.

 

-Wicked is really looking strong. I don't have the comps for this one, and I think we'll need to see if anyone comes through with a Barbie update, because that's what I'm most curious to see.

 

-The showtime allocation on Wicked is bizarre. Dolby screens and lots of 3D for the prime shows and only 11 showtimes across my five screens. Similar to Gladiator, the chain seems to be keeping their options open.

 

-Speaking of ths chain, I saw word of a Wicked prop giveaway for anyone buying Wicked tickets opening weekend. Not sure how much incentive that provides, and anyone buying tickets between now and the day before previews is eligible, so it doesn't add too much incentive to get tickets early.

 

-Terrifier is still doing well. It should be full theatres for the peak time shows for Friday, hopefully leading to spillover.

 

-Gladiator didn't seem like it was doing anything too noteworthy on its second day, but again, limited showings and 40+ lead time.

 

-I haven't updated since the weekend but Venom is trending up, Smile is trending down.

 

- Lastly, we have some key members here who post updates from Florida. I don't know where they are situated exactly (as tracking an area can be done from anywhere), but @TheFlatLannister if you're anywhere near the impacted areas by Milton, I hope you're staying safe.

 

 

we’re all safe here in Florida  

 

Widespread theater shutdowns throughout our state so I won’t have any numbers until maybe Monday. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

30 minutes ago, leoh said:

nope, Moana is not getting all PLFs. It’ll share them with Wicked and Gladiator. The share it’ll get in the PLFs will depend heavily on a possible Wicked and Gladiator breakout. Wicked should get a bigger opening weekend than BJBJ (111 million). Yet it’ll have almost no prime time IMAX showing (at least in NY and LA the only prime time IMAX showing it has is at AMC Universal theater, for obvious reasons lol). So I’m pretty sure IMAX will give it some prime time showings for the thanksgiving weekend.

 

as Shawn said, the over-performance of Wicked will certainly have an impact  over Moama box office. Both appeal for the very same demographics, both are female driven musicals, Wicked likely will skew a bit more adult audience though.

 

I think Moana pre sales start next week, then we’ll have a better idea of what will happen.

Perhaps, but Moana 2 just has more general interest and doesn’t have to share the weekend with any other big movie like Wicked does. While presales are impressive, I think we’ll need to see Moana’s presales to decide definitively 

[AniNate]

Moana presales might still not be as immediately newsworthy as Wicked's are. Inside Out 2's ramped up in the final week, although I guess now we have that as a tracking comp.

[Eric the Clown]

Feel like the game plan is something where Moana has all of IMAX, Wicked has Dolby in the morning, and Gladiator has Dolby at night.

 

Of course, if I may go on my soapbox again, theaters should be investing in more PLF screens and have like...two or three IMAX/Dolby theaters if their locations allow them, but I guess pickleball and ziplining is oh so more important.

[AniNate]

6 minutes ago, Eric the Clown said:

 

 

Of course, if I may go on my soapbox again, theaters should be investing in more PLF screens and have like...two or three IMAX/Dolby theaters if their locations allow them, but I guess pickleball and ziplining is oh so more important.

 

The impression I got was all of those things were on the table? $2.2 billion is a lot of money, far more than pickleball and ziplining would require.

 

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by AniNate

[AnthonyJPHer]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Moana presales might still not be as immediately newsworthy as Wicked's are. Inside Out 2's ramped up in the final week, although I guess now we have that as a tracking comp.

That’s what I suggested to Shawn. Similar presale pace to Inside Out 2. But honestly I do think there will be more upfront interest than Inside Out 2 out of the gate. I’ll probably be proven wrong but, oh well.

[vale9001]

Moana pre Sales will definitely start stronger than inside out. Again a very female audience (while families as always will wait for last moment) plus The Rock promoting It. 

[AniNate]

First Moana had just a slightly higher female skew (64% to 62%). It's still ultimately a family movie that people would prefer to see with their families, not so much a Girls Night Out event the way It Ends with Us and seemingly Wicked are.

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by AniNate

[vale9001]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

First Moana had just a slightly higher female skew (64% to 62%). It's still ultimately a family movie that people would prefer to see with their families.

 

Yeah It's a family movie but in terms of pre Sales the fact It's stronger on young females should led to stronger initial pre sales than inside out. 

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, Eric the Clown said:

Feel like the game plan is something where Moana has all of IMAX, Wicked has Dolby in the morning, and Gladiator has Dolby at night.

 

Of course, if I may go on my soapbox again, theaters should be investing in more PLF screens and have like...two or three IMAX/Dolby theaters if their locations allow them, but I guess pickleball and ziplining is oh so more important.

 

Or studios could schedule films better. 

 

There are probably not enough PLF heavy films spread during the year currently to justify that expense to theaters. 

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, Eric the Clown said:

Feel like the game plan is something where Moana has all of IMAX, Wicked has Dolby in the morning, and Gladiator has Dolby at night.

 

Of course, if I may go on my soapbox again, theaters should be investing in more PLF screens and have like...two or three IMAX/Dolby theaters if their locations allow them, but I guess pickleball and ziplining is oh so more important.

 

If Moana 2 managed to negotiate plf screens when the film wasn't even on the calendar to start the year, then that's some ridiculous leverage they have on theatre chains even coming off that disastrous 2023.

 

We'll see who ends up with what soon enough, but I'm guessing there may be some interesting stories about jockeying for screens among the studios.

 

Like I've said in my updates, MTC4 is taking a very odd approach, with limited showings in general. It feels like the approach being taken is to allocate out screens minimally from now, and see who earns them closer to release date. 

 

 

[AniNate]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

If Moana 2 managed to negotiate plf screens when the film wasn't even on the calendar to start the year, then that's some ridiculous leverage they have on theatre chains even coming off that disastrous 2023.

 

Well, I'm sure that leverage got quite a boost from Inside Out 2. 

[Eric the Clown]

6 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

If Moana 2 managed to negotiate plf screens when the film wasn't even on the calendar to start the year, then that's some ridiculous leverage they have on theatre chains even coming off that disastrous 2023.

 

It's already confirmed that Moana (and Mufasa) will have IMAX at the very least, and apart from WB, Disney generally always has the best leverage when it comes to IMAX anyhow. I would be shocked after this article that Moana 2 wouldn't get some sort of substantial PLF play in some capacity.

 

https://deadline.com/2024/09/moana-2-mufasa-the-lion-king-imax-box-office-1236094108/

[AniNate]

If the Disney Animation movie ended up being another original, I think exhibitors would've been a lot more trepidatious about reserving the PLF for it. But as of now every metric we have is pointing to Moana 2 being a huge hit, so not much reason for the theaters to hesitate.