The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[crazymoviekid]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Wait, is this indicating a $5.7m Friday including previews, for Smile 2? Surely not. That would put it in low to mid teens for the weekend. 

I'm playing it safe for now, but yes, that's what I'm saying given sales of last night.  Hopefully positive WOM picks things up today.  In regards to Thursday preview to weekend multipliers...

 

Exorcist: 9.3x

Saw X: 9.15x

Nun II: 10.52x

Prey For the Devil: 10.89x

Smile: 11.30x

Barbarian: 12.40x

 

Thanks to no other previews, but Thursday AND a late 7pm start, leggier previews are a strong possibility..  If it does end up with $1.25M for Thursday, given the range of multipliers, it can be anywhere from $11.44M-$15.50M.  However Thursday goes will project the whole weekend.

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

I'm playing it safe for now, but yes, that's what I'm saying given sales of last night.  Hopefully positive WOM picks things up today.  In regards to Thursday preview to weekend multipliers...

 

Exorcist: 9.3x

Saw X: 9.15x

Nun II: 10.52x

Prey For the Devil: 10.89x

Smile: 11.30x

Barbarian: 12.40x

 

Thanks to no other previews, but Thursday AND a late 7pm start, leggier previews are a strong possibility..  If it does end up with $1.25M for Thursday, given the range of multipliers, it can be anywhere from $11.44M-$15.50M.  However Thursday goes will project the whole weekend.

Can’t see it going that low thankfully. 

[M37]

RE: Smile 2’s IM, seems like most people are penciling in 10x or more. However, keep in mind that the previews/weekend pattern of the original was impacted to some degree by Hurricane Ian buzzing through Florida and up the SE coast, all of which is typically a good market for horror.
 

Last fall, both Saw X and Exorcist were closer to 9x than 10x, and we shouldn’t be surprised with like $2.3/$22M result here

[Flip]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Where are the  Gladiator 2 updates?Have not seem some in a few days. 

It’s pacing similar to Twisters. In my sample Twisters barely grew until T-23 (it increased just 29% from a low seat number from T-38 to T-23)

[Flip]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Where are the  Gladiator 2 updates?Have not seem some in a few days. 

It’s pacing similar to Twisters. In my sample Twisters barely grew until T-23 (it increased just 29% from a low seat number from T-38 to T-23)

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[AniNate]

Way I see it, regardless of how early presales start, movies should ideally be pacing at at least a 10% increase for every 10% of time drawn closer to release. We were 40 days out on Monday so was planning another count tomorrow.

[CompoundTheGains]

18 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

Theater count for Terrifier has risen to 2,762 for its second session.  FYI according to Exhibitor Relations Co. on X

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

I expect better drops for Terrifier 3 , but the estimations of Smile 2 and TWR are the same as me.

 

Tomorrow first Wicked/Gladiator predictions !!! (for me it will be 80-120M for Wicked OW and 40-60M OW for Gladiator 2).

[kayumanggi]

 

[grumpythepenguin]

2 hours ago, Tinalera said:

I havent done any research on demos-does the Demo for VIPs slant to a particular group (as an example, do more Male then female go to VIPs? I coulld see if that's the case, but then Universial has put out movies of all Demos so I dont think its that.

 

The VIP theatres tend to be setup for dates/couples (two seats together, spacing around them). So I imagine romantic comedies like Anyone But You are ideal, but anything that has broad appeal to both men and women would be preferred.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Its something Ive wondered myself, and I dont have answers. For whatever reason it might be maybe they want to only hit the bigger seat theatres for their films? I havent done any research on demos-does the Demo for VIPs slant to a particular group (as an example, do more Male then female go to VIPs? I coulld see if that's the case, but then Universial has put out movies of all Demos so I dont think its that.

 

You might have something with the not bickering idea, that would be the only one close that I can think of. 

 

Might be they just feel showing a film in a 70-100 seat screening isnt worth their time (for whatever reason)

 

The general consensus I'm seeing is that it is over price.

 

And I don't have any formal research into this, but I will say that when VIP sales are an option for an opener, it certainly drives sales. It's usually among the best selling formats when it's available, and at its price point, probably delivering the most gross revenue in most cases.

 

Just from what I've observed is that it's a strong date night option. The seat service for alcoholic drinks, and restricting below 19 makes it more appealing. 

 

I also think the scarcity actual helps drive early sales. If you're thinking of getting tickets, but you see tickets going fairly fast in a small theater, you'll pull the trigger.

 

And locations that have VIP screens are usually the large multi plexes, so theyre getting a bunch of screens anyways, including at least one large capacity one.

 

I think it's likely just a question of revenue splits. And with Wicked shaping up to be a monster, if a deal is going to be reached here, I think it could happen. Both sides would be leaving money on the table if they don't.

 

That said, some VIP showings are showing up for Gladiator, so maybe they're just going to commit there.

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[AniNate]

No one's been promoting it but HERE tickets are now on sale. Doesn't seem to be getting a very wide release though, so I guess expectations definitely ought to be tempered there.

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Flip]

14 hours ago, Flip said:

Smile 2 (T-1)

 

9 showtimes/172 tix sold (+74)

 

1.07x Speak No Evil (T-1) [1.39m]

1.67x The Watchers (T-1) [1.67m]

 

Very good day. If there is 100 tickets sold between now and T-0 I think 2m should be done and dusted.

Smile 2 (T-0)

 

9 showtimes/273 tix sold (+101)

 

Missed Speak No Evil (T-0) [???]

1.84x The Watchers (T-0) [1.84m]

decent finish, but I just don’t get why theaters waited until the last minute to add showings, they did the same thing with Longlegs and Terrifier 3

 

Predicting: 2.0-2.15m

[el sid]

Smile 2 had, counted today for today, 333 sold tickets in 3 theaters:

197 in the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY,

22 in the AMC Grand Rapids in Michigan 

and 114 sold tickets in the AMC Metreon in California. 

 

Comps (always counted in the same three theaters and also on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): M3gan had 298 sold tickets = 3.1M. 

Smile had 208 = 3.2M. 

The Invitation had 94 = 2.75M. 

Prey for the Devil had 86 = 2.55M. 

And Halloween Ends had 451 sold tickets = 4.05M. 

 

Average: 3.1M for Smile 2. 

It lost in all comps since yesterday (they were way too high) and I think this trend will continue. So around 2.5M from previews is more realistic. Not under 2M judging from my (at the moment) three theaters. 

 

Still not frontloaded. For Friday Smile 2 had today 526 sold tickets (in the the same three theaters). 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

RE: Smile 2’s IM, seems like most people are penciling in 10x or more. However, keep in mind that the previews/weekend pattern of the original was impacted to some degree by Hurricane Ian buzzing through Florida and up the SE coast, all of which is typically a good market for horror.
 

Last fall, both Saw X and Exorcist were closer to 9x than 10x, and we shouldn’t be surprised with like $2.3/$22M result here

Could that be thrown off by the T-Mobile deal? Think it was confirmed it wasn’t eligible for use on Thursday. 

Edited 8 hours ago by Krissykins