The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Madhuvan]

38 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-41	Jax	6	64	301	3,733	10,330	36.14%
		Phx	6	67	413	6,997	11,445	61.14%
		Ral	8	66	333	4,332	8,660	50.02%
	Total		20	197	1,047	15,062	30,435	49.49%

 

Added 28 shows since yesterday and another 1k seats sold.  

 

Comps against T-0 sales

 - Super Mario - 1.393x (44.14m)

 - Space Jam - 3.398x (44.51m)

 - Barbie - 1.583x (33.56m)

 - Paw Patrol - 10.73x (48.53m)

 - My Hero Academia - 9.28x (26.76m)

 - Demon Slayer - 5.56x (23.45m)

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .434x (21.72m)

 - Dr Strange - .653x (23.5m)

 - BP2 - .852x (23.85m)

 - Thor 4 - .92x (26.68m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.564x (27.37m)

 

This could be pretty representative of where the final could land, but I'll bump my prediction up to 30m.  While I do think sales will keep rising, we're already at 50% full.  People will have to make a choice between a 10pm+ show or waiting for the next day.  Saturday should be well above Friday in gross though with the full day of shows.  

This is without OTP adjustment right?

 

So ig 45m-50m Friday for Tay

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

13 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

In regards to ATP for Eras Tour, at AMC Lincoln Square for example, the IMAX tickets are going for $28.89 for an adult and $22.13 for a child. Dolby is going for $29.89 for an adult and $23.13 for a child. These showtimes are selling out like mad as well. I would not be shocked to see an ATP above $20.

Interesting, I'm in a Top 40ish market and at my AMC, IMAX tickets for Eras are $23.89/$17.13 and Dolby is $24.89/$18.13. I just checked The Grove in LA and the IMAX/Dolby prices there are higher than my local, but still lower than Lincoln Square. So there is some variance based on markets, at least with the PLF shows. Someone tell Indiewire, they can stop crying about Taylor's illegal price fixing now...

[Shawn Robbins]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

I meant it as a compliment!

[Eric is Quiet]

Moderation

 

Nobody's in trouble, but a lot of the "Swift vs. Adele" stuff and "will Taylor be cast in this movie" stuff feels off topic and fits in the Eras Tour thread. Just wanted to stop it before things got worse.

[Cap]

10 minutes ago, Eric McCall said:

Moderation

 

Nobody's in trouble, but a lot of the "Swift vs. Adele" stuff and "will Taylor be cast in this movie" stuff feels off topic and fits in the Eras Tour thread. Just wanted to stop it before things got worse.

Honestly, just move it all to that thread. (I would but I am on mobile)

[ringedmortality]

10 minutes ago, Eric McCall said:

Moderation

 

Nobody's in trouble, but a lot of the "Swift vs. Adele" stuff and "will Taylor be cast in this movie" stuff feels off topic and fits in the Eras Tour thread. Just wanted to stop it before things got worse.

 

Man this is fucking hilarious. It's like this place turned into Fauxmoi

[cowboylikeme]

So what's the prediction for Taylor's OD? New to here. Have no idea how the things work. 😅

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, cowboylikeme said:

So what's the prediction for Taylor's OD? New to here. Have no idea how the things work. 😅

 

No real prediction yet. There are a lot of mitigating factors around the film that make it more difficult than any other major blockbuster to prognosticate. It'll probably take a few weeks to see how the sales pattern plays out to start narrowing in on a real number. 

FWIW, if I had to take a guess on it right now I'd go something like 50-65-55 for opening weekend. 

[Eric is Quiet]

21 minutes ago, Cap said:

Honestly, just move it all to that thread. (I would but I am on mobile)

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, that's not a $50m Friday, now is it?  (edited out as I misunderstood the original point — see post below)

 

Still, larger than Endgame previews and a flat Sat-Sun?  Maybe something like 50% to 60% of Endgame admissions due to ATP difference? To be generous let's presume something like a 3:1 adult:child ratio which gave an ATP of $18.25 versus 2019 ATP of $9.16.

 

That's... That's a tall order, IMO.  

It had imax/plf. Plus are you expecting 25% kids for OW. Seems high to me.

[vale9001]

As i wrote yesterday Barbie has Thursday previews for the "imax week" and sales are cute if we count there are 3 weeks left.

That day will have easily an increase from Wed and who knows if can be the biggest weekday. 

 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by vale9001

[Bob Train]

I presume Barbie PVOD release date will get delayed due to IMAX release? Quite rare for a movie to be on PVOD and have IMAX theaters at the same time. Even with Mario they waited until after it lost IMAX to Guardians 3.

 

Also, could Barbie return to #1 the weekend it gets IMAX? Exp4ndables looks like a non-factor and not sure 2nd weekend of Haunting in Venice will be strong enough. Would become first movie to be #1 in 10th weekend since...Titanic I think?

 

[filmlover]

Expendables 4 reeks of "dump" but it might be #1 that weekend even with a high single digits opening unless one of either The Nun 2 or A Haunting in Venice overperform.

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I presume Barbie PVOD release date will get delayed due to IMAX release? Quite rare for a movie to be on PVOD and have IMAX theaters at the same time. Even with Mario they waited until after it lost IMAX to Guardians 3.

 

Also, could Barbie return to #1 the weekend it gets IMAX? Exp4ndables looks like a non-factor and not sure 2nd weekend of Haunting in Venice will be strong enough. Would become first movie to be #1 in 10th weekend since...Titanic I think?

 

There is a small chance it does take #1 back. IMAX pre-sales are surprisingly solid for a film that’s been out 2 months and already grossed over 600 million domestic. Tickets also just went on sale during the Eras blitz, so kind of got buried. As they continue to advertise in the coming weeks, pre-sales should climb even more. Depending how many regular theatres it’s still playing in that weekend, a 10-12 million weekend isn’t out of the cards. 

[XXR & Friends]

13 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Would become first movie to be #1 in 10th weekend since...Titanic I think?

 

Specifically the 10th weekend, probably. TGM got back to #1 in its 15th weekend. 

[vafrow]

On 9/1/2023 at 5:44 AM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, D1, hour 22, T-43

 

Total sales:  16,662

New Sales: 11,002

Growth from yesterday: 196%

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  206

Tickets per showtime: 80.7

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Again, no comps for this regional coverage outside recent films, so comparing against pulls from morning of just to get scale.

 

9.61x T-1 Blue Beetle

18.72x T-1 Equalizer

23.58x T-1 Gran Turismo

 

Some observations on sales:

 

-Early evening shows are mainly sold out. Lots of showings that are down to front row seats for example.

 

-Theres a lack of late shows in many theatres. Only the early evening. I think showtime decisions were made quickly, and likely under estimated demand. I imagine they would prefer to have a 6:00 pm show and a 10:00 pm show rather than a 7:30, which is what many have.

 

-They haven't figured out what they're doing with Dbox. Those seats are remaining unsold. 

 

-Unlike stateside, shows start as early as 12:30. Those shows are less busy actually, but I'm guessing that they fill up in time. This feels like something people will skip school for, or take an afternoon off work.

 

-The usual pattern for MTC4 is to confirm all showtimes the Tuesday of the week before, so if there's an expansion of capacity, that's when I'd expect it. But, I imagine there will be a revisiting of how much they can dedicate, especially as Exorcist has moved.

 

My entirely too early prediction, with caveats of lack of comps and all of that, is that this will have an opening Friday of $50-60M. 

 

 

 

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, D1, hour 22, T-42ish (noon data pull)

 

Total sales:  19,275

New Sales: 2,653

Growth from yesterday: 16%

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  214*

Tickets per showtime: 90.1

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Again, no comps for this regional coverage outside recent films, so comparing against pulls from morning of just to get scale.

 

11.15x T-1 Blue Beetle

21.71x T-1 Equalizer

27.34x T-1 Gran Turismo

 

Some data observations:

 

-Increased showtimes appear to be from IMAX evening showings. These finally opened up after Exorcist moved. They must have just happened this morning because sales are light, but I expect every seat of these shows to sell out eventually.

 

-Reminder that in Canada, showtimes appear to be allowed to start earlier, with some from 12:30. However, a lot of theatres don't open for matinees on weekdays. I'm guessing that in time, they'll expand hours ( both earlier and later shows) and add capacity, but, that may happen closer to the date.

 

-I still don't know what an ideal growth rate is beyond opening day, but 16% feels pretty good. The prime shows remain almost fully sold, so growth has come from people buying earlier shows it seems. I haven't checked Saturday or other day sales formally, but I'm also guessing that has absorbed a lot of demand.

 

-Base ticket prices for the market for MTC4 runs from $10.75 to $13.50 usually. Those are all charging $19.89 Canadian. Surcharges for AVX (chain branded Dolby screen) and IMAX are being added for those shows.

 

More time is always needed to fully assess, but, I'm still thinking of this in the $50M range more based on feel, and looking to see if the trends and data point away from that in either direction,, and nothing does at this stage yet. 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I could see a $60M Friday. Endgame did $60M on Thursday and previews started at 5PM IIRC, not much earlier than what this is doing on Friday. ATP will probably be 70-80% higher overall so it could hit $60M with basically half the ticket sales and that seems doable based on current trends. FWIW, I paid $14.99 per ticket for IMAX at my AMC for Endgame and I just paid $25.89 for the same exact IMAX for Eras Tour.

 

As for a $300M OW or $900M DOM total, I mean, I’d love to see it but that seems overly implausible. 

Best case scenario 60/120/110 for 290m OW 🙂 But for now Barbie OW to 200m is my expected range.

[Madhuvan]

I know it's most likely not true but just wanted this to be out

 

She filmed 3 shows at LA to edit and make it seamless. But this also means she has 3 sets of Surprise songs don't be surprised if we end up with 3 versions of the movie or maybe she will pick the best 2 of the 6. Let's see 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

some of these predictions are getting out of hand…I could see something close to $200M OW but no chance $300M is happening with only F/S/S 

 

Assuming a generous 50% drop weekend to weekend, after 4 weeks a $200M OW would be at $375M total (no weekday grosses), nowhere near $900M

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

some of these predictions are getting out of hand…I could see something close to $200M OW but no chance $300M is happening with only F/S/S 

 

Assuming a generous 50% drop weekend to weekend, after 4 weeks a $200M OW would be at $375M total (no weekday grosses), nowhere near $900M

$300m total is excellent outcome and what it likely will do unless it becomes a bigger event than expected