The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Boxofficerules]

2 minutes ago, Eric MacNeil said:

Quorum Updates

Killers of the Flower Moon T-15: 35.58% Awareness

The Holdovers T-36: 15.39%

Next Goal Wins T-43: 13.89%

Thanksgiving T-43: 20.29%

Wish T-48: 32.06%

Poor Things T-64: 17.06%

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-76: 52.63%

The Beekeeper T-99: 24.8%

 

The Exorcist: Believer T-1: 54.99% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 41% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-8: 44.74% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

I thought Taylor Swift was selling way more than that?

[Bob Train]

Just now, Boxofficerules said:

I thought Taylor Swift was selling way more than that?

IDK why they even bothered tracking that when it is clearly incompatible with their models. 

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, Eric MacNeil said:

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-8: 44.74% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

It's fucking OVER swifties. This film will have walkdowns instead of walkups.

[Hilts]

19 hours ago, Hilts said:

Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.702x	=	$2.18m
A Haunting In Venice					1.680x	=	$2.02m
Talk To Me					2.184x	=	$2.72m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					2.517x	=	$1.89m
Insidious: The Red Door					0.555x	=	$2.78m
The Nun II					0.929x	=	$2.88m
The Creator					1.138x	=	$1.82m
Saw X					1.190x	=	$2.38m

Pure horror comp average is $2.5m, it did have a decent final day but did not move the needle much so I will bump slightly my prediction to $2.7m.

 

I am liking Friday numbers from @el sid though so can scrape over $30m OW. Reckon it may be a nailbiter/fudge.

 

I will take the 5% off here.

 

Lessons learned: Demeter does not seem to be a good horror comp for me. Also be more selective on comps. Insidious and Nun were pretty much nailed on so this will add to my collection nicely.

 

$30m OW is not over, does not take an outrageous multiplier to get there but let's see the FRI number. Negative WOM won't exactly help but may not be much of a hindrance either until after the weekend. I will happily eat my words though since I have gone under in the Derby 😉

[M37]

38 minutes ago, Hilts said:

since I have gone under in the Derby 😉

If I had time to do it this morning, my number was gonna be $29.73M (off an expected $2.9M Thur)

[vale9001]

The eras tour: 36M pre Sales in 48 hours.

Quorum: 84% chance of 10M

[Tinalera]

Taylor Swift

Fri Oct 13

Toronto Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Fri	4	13	2566	352	2918	0.8793

 

Yep Swift just keeps moving along nicely.

[ChipDerby]

49 minutes ago, M37 said:

If I had time to do it this morning, my number was gonna be $29.73M (off an expected $2.9M Thur)

 

I went straight up with $30 mil

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

IDK why they even bothered tracking that when it is clearly incompatible with their models. 

 

Sometimes you need some bad results to help calibrate your models.

 

I still don't put a lot of faith in quorum numbers,, but I appreciate them putting out the outliers.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-12	20	163	73	11,793	28,984	40.69%	0.62%
T-11	20	164	118	11,911	29,080	40.96%	1.00%
T-10	20	166	87	11,998	29,294	40.96%	0.73%
T-9	24	185	355	12,353	31,189	39.61%	2.96%
T-8	24	185	54	12,407	31,189	39.78%	0.44%
MTC1	7	67	+22	6,997	11,518	60.75%
MTC2	4	41	0	1,943	6,420	30.26%
MTC3	3	34	+20	2,221	6,396	34.72%
Other	10	43	+12	1,246	6,855	18.18%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.255x	=	$26.48m	$39.72m
Oppenheimer				2.548x	=	$26.76m	$40.13m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.114x	=	$29.62m	$44.43m
T-8 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.272x	=	$20.10m	$30.15m

 

*+50%

 

Slightly slower day today. Added new sales split by chain plus daily growth.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-11	20	164	118	11,911	29,080	40.96%	1.00%
T-10	20	166	87	11,998	29,294	40.96%	0.73%
T-9	24	185	355	12,353	31,189	39.61%	2.96%
T-8	24	185	54	12,407	31,189	39.78%	0.44%
T-7	24	185	104	12,511	31,189	40.11%	0.84%
MTC1	7	67	+44	7,041	11,518	61.13%
MTC2	4	41	+12	1,955	6,420	30.45%
MTC3	3	34	+31	2,252	6,396	35.21%
Other	10	43	+17	1,263	6,855	18.42%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.265x	=	$26.70m	$40.05m
Oppenheimer				2.570x	=	$26.98m	$40.47m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.148x	=	$29.87m	$44.80m
T-7 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.238x	=	$20.06m	$30.09m

 

*+50%

 

Alright picked back up again a little today.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-18	21	82	93	1,048	15,266	6.86%	9.74%
T-17	21	82	70	1,118	15,266	7.32%	6.68%
T-16	21	82	162	1,280	15,266	8.38%	14.49%
T-15	21	82	70	1,350	15,266	8.84%	5.47%
T-14	21	82	81	1,431	15,266	9.37%	6.00%
MTC1	8	32	+26	600	5,897	10.17%
MTC2	4	18	+18	293	3,132	9.36%
MTC3	3	18	+19	387	3,798	10.19%
Other	6	14	+18	151	2,439	6.19%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.573x	=	$16.51m
Barbie					0.856x	=	$19.01m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.268x	=	$19.96m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.583x	=	$11.40m
Sound of Freedom					1.389x	=	$7.22m
Asteroid City					19.338x	=	$21.27m

 

Still selling decently everywhere. Finally largely settled against comps. Actual accurate number is probably ~25% of these.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-17	21	82	70	1,118	15,266	7.32%	6.68%
T-16	21	82	162	1,280	15,266	8.38%	14.49%
T-15	21	82	70	1,350	15,266	8.84%	5.47%
T-14	21	82	81	1,431	15,266	9.37%	6.00%
T-13	21	82	114	1,545	15,266	10.12%	7.97%
MTC1	8	32	+67	667	5,897	11.31%
MTC2	4	18	+5	298	3,132	9.51%
MTC3	3	18	+31	418	3,798	11.01%
Other	6	14	+11	162	2,439	6.64%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.601x	=	$16.81m
Barbie					0.858x	=	$19.05m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.348x	=	$20.66m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.660x	=	$11.95m
Sound of Freedom					1.402x	=	$7.29m

 

And back to beating all comps again. Reminder for newcomers - major overindex here.

 

Reason I am keeping SoF is that also overperformed here (mostly due to the pay-it-forward I assume) so may be a reasonable indicator, maybe not. That was a Tuesday (or Monday?) opening so bear that in mind. Starts to pick up tomorrow and then a bigger ramp up from T-7 onward so that may be an interesting comparison.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-25	15	61	195	195	10,575	1.84%	-
T-24	16	64	156	351	10,818	3.24%	80.00%
T-23	16	64	123	474	10,818	4.38%	35.04%
T-22	16	67	103	577	11,157	5.17%	21.73%
T-21	16	67	73	650	11,157	5.83%	12.65%
MTC1	7	21	+25	293	2,213	13.24%
MTC2	4	21	+15	133	3,504	3.80%
MTC3	3	20	+27	174	4,277	4.07%
Other	2	5	+6	50	1,163	4.30%
Comps
Asteroid City					14.130x	=	$15.54m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.952x	=	$17.18m
Barbie					0.600x	=	$13.31m
Haunted Mansion					7.831x	=	$24.28m
Oppenheimer					0.977x	=	$10.26m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.953x	=	$6.86m
The Exorcist: Believer					14.444x
Killers of the Flower Moon					0.895x

 

Slowing down at pretty even pace but most comps still rising. No new shows added today.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-24	16	64	156	351	10,818	3.24%	80.00%
T-23	16	64	123	474	10,818	4.38%	35.04%
T-22	16	67	103	577	11,157	5.17%	21.73%
T-21	16	67	73	650	11,157	5.83%	12.65%
T-20	16	72	50	700	11,880	5.89%	7.69%
MTC1	7	21	+19	312	2,213	14.10%
MTC2	4	26	+6	139	4,227	3.29%
MTC3	3	20	+22	196	4,277	4.58%
Other	2	5	+3	53	1,163	4.56%
Comps
Asteroid City					14.000x	=	$15.40m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.966x	=	$17.30m
Barbie					0.607x	=	$13.47m
Haunted Mansion					7.292x	=	$22.60m
Oppenheimer					1.014x	=	$10.65m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.975x	=	$7.02m
Killers of the Flower Moon					0.831x

 

Similar story to yesterday. MTC2 added a few shows. Removed Exorcist comp as now we know the number it is spitting out a ridiculous figure. May add it back later once it has more activity as the longer presale window had quite a lull around this time for about a week.

[The Wild Eric]

2 hours ago, vale9001 said:

The eras tour: 36M pre Sales in 48 hours.

Quorum: 84% chance of 10M

Dawg, they aren't saying it. I am. I know this is off-base, but it's just waht I've given from my own archiving and information. Besides, it'll likely land in the 50s or even 60s by the time we reach release day, so all this ribbing is meaningless.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11740	43831	26.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

73

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

 

T-8 comps

(1.838x) of GOTG3~$32.16M FRIDAY for TET

(2.877x) of ATSV ~$49.91M FRIDAY for TET 

(3.799x) of TLM~$39.13M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $40.4M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $56.56M

 

Switching to T-X

*Keep in mind these new T-x comps will fall really fast*

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11849	43831	27.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

109

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-7

 

 

(1.806x) of GOTG3~$31.61M FRIDAY for TET

(2.774x) of ATSV ~$48.12M FRIDAY for TET 

(3.713x) of TLM~$38.25M FRIDAY for TET 

(2.276x) of Barbie~$48.02M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $41.5M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $58.10M

 

First real sign of some acceleration. Added Barbie comp 

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/30/2023 at 1:48 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-13):

Day: T-13	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	128	612	12651	20936	60.43

 

Been slacking on Taylor, my last update was 8 days ago, so average of 76 tix sold a day. On par with the last few updates, nothing new to report.

 

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.42x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $31.64 Million

2.6x Oppenheimer at T-1: $27.35 Million

 

To make up for my slacking off, I'm following @Porthos descent into madness and looking into Saturday sales; it'll take a min, but I'll report back

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	130	679	13330	21102	63.17

 

This is over 6 days, over 100 new seats sold a day is an improvement over the past few weeks.

 

Comps (last day I tracked each, unadjusted):

1.49x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $33.25 Million

2.74x Oppenheimer at T-1: $28.75 Million

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
159	1856	29461	6.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

224

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(1.072x) of Flash~$10.40M THUR Previews

(0.729x) of ATSV ~$12.66M THUR Previews

(1.423x) of Fast X~$10.67M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.24M

 

*Just for fun*

(1.009x) of Barbie ~$21.29M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	1973	30059	6.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

117

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(1.128x) of Flash~$10.94M THUR Previews

(0.754x) of ATSV ~$13.08M THUR Previews

(1.494x) of Fast X~$11.20M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.74M

 

Super strong day 6

Edited October 6, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[ChipDerby]

I'd expect an uptick in Eras ticket sales going into the weekend. Seems to have been trending online today.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	484	24356	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.358x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.76M THUR Previews

(0.947x) of Blue Beetle ~$3.13M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.45M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	488	24356	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.347x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.64M THUR Previews

(0.924x) of Blue Beetle ~$3.05M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.35M 

[misterpepp]

The Holdovers will go on sale on Oct 11.

 

Have a great weekend 

[keysersoze123]

On 10/5/2023 at 9:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews(T-21) - 31644/177567 440453.54 1255 shows +2490

Friday - 34069/327514 478476.49 +3943

 

Another really good day. Will have a great internal multi for sure. 

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews(T-20) - 33681/181395 469247.61 1278 shows +2037

Friday - 37556/334420 531243.62 2191 shows +3487

 

This is still excellent.