The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	154	11257	20003	8746	43.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

90

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	45.47		559	19233		1/325	19887/39120	49.16%		28183	31.03%		22.74m	32.97m
MoM	66.95		506	13063		0/353	29617/42680	30.61%		21117	41.42%		24.10m	34.95m
Thor 4	100.91		393	8667		0/249	24865/33532	25.85%		16962	51.56%		29.26m	42.43m
BP2	96.07		395	9104		2/308	29023/38127	23.88%		16800	52.06%		26.90m	39.00m
AM3	141.43		200	6184		0/249	27442/33626	18.39%		10475	83.49%		24.75m	35.89m
GOTG3	176.76		317	4948		0/226	26866/31814	15.55%		10750	81.36%		30.93m	44.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-6 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	161.90		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		11757	74.39%
JWD	209.74		285	4170		0/223	23587/27757	15.02%		10966	79.76%
Ava 2	199.23		236	4390		0/184	21739/26129	16.80%		8986	97.33%
AtSV	265.43		266	3295		0/142	19179/22474	14.66%		9744	89.76%
Barbie	191.38		468	4570		0/180	17188/21758	21.00%		12077	72.42%
Oppy	422.31		153	2071		0/75	8239/10310	20.09%		4621	189.27%
Barben	131.70		621	6641		0/255	25427/32068	20.71%		16698	52.38%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2432/6150  [39.54% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	154	11185	20003	8818	44.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

72

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	44.65		515	19748		1/325	19372/39120	50.48%		28183	31.29%		22.33m	32.37m
MoM	65.28		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	41.76%		23.50m	34.07m
Thor 4	98.32		302	8969		0/251	24732/33701	26.61%		16962	51.99%		28.51m	41.34m
BP2	92.66		412	9516		2/307	28444/37960	25.07%		16800	52.49%		25.95m	37.62m
AM3	139.72		127	6311		0/249	27315/33626	18.77%		10475	84.18%		24.45m	35.46m
GOTG3	169.15		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	82.03%		29.60m	42.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-5 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	155.99		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	75.00%
JWD	190.91		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	80.41%
Ava 2	188.18		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	98.13%
AtSV	246.80		278	3573		0/142	18901/22474	15.90%		9744	90.50%
Barbie	174.96		470	5040		1/180	16708/21748	23.17%		12077	73.01%
Oppy	400.64		130	2201		0/77	8355/10556	20.85%		4621	190.82%
Barben	121.78		600	7241		1/257	25063/32304	22.42%		16698	52.81%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2439/6150  [39.66% sold]

 

====

 

Ooooof.

 

Only real silver lining I might be able to point to is that not many new showtimes have gone up recently which is one of the things that juice sales starting Sunday night week-of.  The desirable showtimes/theaters are just packed solid. 

 

The only other thing I might be able to point to, which is perhaps is related to the showtimes, is the Friday release throwing a tiny monkey wrench into all of these Thursday comps.  I don't know when theaters are planning on expanding their Friday slates (as opposed to expanding their Thursday ones).  Plus buying habits might be slightly different for a Friday Night Movie versus an Thursday Night/Afternoon one.

 

But even so.... "Oooof".

 

(also timing cuts both ways, as all of these comps are Saturday comps, which is a traditionally slower day for pre-sales, for whatever reason)

((still don't know what is gonna happen, mind, if/when more showtimes are added, but as omens go, I've seen better))

[Madhuvan]

Taylor hasn't even acknowledged the movie since weeks.I don't understand, what's even the plan here. Bit of promotion would have helped.

[Valencia]

2 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Taylor hasn't even acknowledged the movie since weeks.I don't understand, what's even the plan here. Bit of promotion would have helped.

This is just easy side money for her. Whatever it makes, it makes.

[Sparkle Jump Rope Queen]

44 minutes ago, Valencia said:

This is just easy side money for her. Whatever it makes, it makes.

so true lol. 

 

 

the fact that it's been able to make a profit in its first day presales alone is insane 

[Taylor89]

3 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Taylor hasn't even acknowledged the movie since weeks.I don't understand, what's even the plan here. Bit of promotion would have helped.

 

she's going to make at least 200m from this movie. 

[lola]

What does T-(a number) mean? I’m new here lol 

[Giorno]

24 minutes ago, lola said:

What does T-(a number) mean? I’m new here lol 

days until release

[lola]

56 minutes ago, Giorno said:

days until release

Thank you. The abbreviations here are too complicated 😅

[Giorno]

8 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Taylor hasn't even acknowledged the movie since weeks.I don't understand, what's even the plan here. Bit of promotion would have helped.

im pretty sure every swiftie alive knows this is happening, this "movie" isn't gonna get the casual moviegoer anyways so whats the point of spamming ads?

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

What Happens Later T-25: 20.54% Awareness

Eileen T-60: 12.32%

The Book of Clarence T-95: 17.07%

Elio T-144: 22.31%

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-151: 40.27%

Deadpool 3 T-207: 54.04%

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-4: 46.54% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

 

Killers of the Flower Moon T-11: 37.43% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-39: 44.52% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 44% chance of 50M, 39% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 90M, 17% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M

 

Godzilla Minus One T-53: 18.14% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

[Gabe0mazing]

6 minutes ago, Eric MacNeil said:

Elio T-144: 22.31%

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-151: 40.27%

I know it's just based on awareness, but does this mean that Kung Fu Panda 4 could hit franchise highs? Also that's a pretty brutal number for Elio.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, lola said:

What does T-(a number) mean? I’m new here lol 

 

2 hours ago, Giorno said:

days until release

 

Yes, it technically stands for "T minus", but as the person who more or less originated it over here (I don't think any of the prior trackers used it before me, though I could be wrong), I fully admit to stealing it from being an homage to the countdowns used in NASA.

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

41 minutes ago, Eric MacNeil said:

Quorum Updates

What Happens Later T-25: 20.54% Awareness

Eileen T-60: 12.32%

The Book of Clarence T-95: 17.07%

Elio T-144: 22.31%

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-151: 40.27%

Deadpool 3 T-207: 54.04%

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-4: 46.54% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

 

Killers of the Flower Moon T-11: 37.43% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-39: 44.52% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 44% chance of 50M, 39% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 90M, 17% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M

 

Godzilla Minus One T-53: 18.14% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

What does this mean? How does killers have only a 4 percent chance of 20 million? The tracking has been upward of that? 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Curiouser and Curiouser

[keysersoze123]

The Marvels Presales are starting tomorrow

 

MTC1 opening day presales for past 4 movies

 

1) Guardians 3 - 68696 // 2nd day morning number

2) Antman - ~88.5k

3) Wakanda - 110K

4) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

What would be a good target. Eternals sold something in low 30s. That is the base minimum. Anything close to Guardians is good. If its above that its terrific. 

 

 

[Giorno]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels Presales are starting tomorrow

 

MTC1 opening day presales for past 4 movies

 

1) Guardians 3 - 68696 // 2nd day morning number

2) Antman - ~88.5k

3) Wakanda - 110K

4) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

What would be a good target. Eternals sold something in low 30s. That is the base minimum. Anything close to Guardians is good. If its above that its terrific. 

 

 

Anything that would point to a 100m OW from the jump

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Anything that would point to a 100m OW from the jump

OW projections we will know based on few days of presales. It has one huge advantage. Since the movie is comfortably under 2 hours, shows are scheduled 150 minutes apart. So even with 3PM start, Imax/PLF have 4 shows on releasing thursday. So it does not even need to have the same screen allocations as Guardians to hit big OW. 

 

MCU have the biggest fan base among all franchises today( I am not counting swifties here :-) ). That will help with initial presales for sure. 

[TwoMisfits]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels Presales are starting tomorrow

 

MTC1 opening day presales for past 4 movies

 

1) Guardians 3 - 68696 // 2nd day morning number

2) Antman - ~88.5k

3) Wakanda - 110K

4) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

What would be a good target. Eternals sold something in low 30s. That is the base minimum. Anything close to Guardians is good. If its above that its terrific. 

 

 

Interesting that the movies have been dropping 20%ish in 1st day presales for the last 4...so I guess a good number would be 20% off or less GOTG 3 or about 55K...that would be a number that would probably indicate "yeah, it's opening to reasonable expectations" (which we've mentioned in the specific movie thread of $71-$117M)...

[XXR & Friends]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels Presales are starting tomorrow

 

MTC1 opening day presales for past 4 movies

 

1) Guardians 3 - 68696 // 2nd day morning number

2) Antman - ~88.5k

3) Wakanda - 110K

4) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

What would be a good target. Eternals sold something in low 30s. That is the base minimum. Anything close to Guardians is good. If its above that its terrific. 

 

 

45-50K is my estimate 

[SpiderByte]

The discourse here will be terrible tomorrow so I'll probably stay off lol. If you think the sky is falling was bad with Guardians, anything indicating less than 100 mil ow will cause"MCU IS OVER" and "Marvel needs to SHUT DOWN PRODUCTION" (despite the fact that they have already done that. Twice. And still are currently)

Edited October 9, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Hilts]

On 10/8/2023 at 8:40 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	24	185	355	12,353	31,189	39.61%	2.96%
T-8	24	185	54	12,407	31,189	39.78%	0.44%
T-7	24	185	104	12,511	31,189	40.11%	0.84%
T-6	24	185	69	12,580	31,228	40.28%	0.55%
T-5	24	185	70	12,650	31,228	40.51%	0.56%
MTC1	7	67	+29	7,096	11,518	61.61%	0.41%
MTC2	4	41	+7	1,967	6,420	30.64%	0.36%
MTC3	3	34	+16	2,284	6,396	35.71%	0.71%
Other	10	43	+18	1,303	6,894	18.90%	1.40%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.279x	=	$27.00m	$40.49m
Oppenheimer				2.598x	=	$27.28m	$40.92m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.194x	=	$30.20m	$45.30m
T-5 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				17.969x	=	$19.77m	$29.65m

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	24	185	54	12,407	31,189	39.78%	0.44%
T-7	24	185	104	12,511	31,189	40.11%	0.84%
T-6	24	185	69	12,580	31,228	40.28%	0.55%
T-5	24	185	70	12,650	31,228	40.51%	0.56%
T-4	24	185	122	12,772	31,228	40.90%	0.96%
MTC1	7	67	+53	7,149	11,518	62.07%	0.75%
MTC2	4	41	+22	1,989	6,420	30.98%	1.12%
MTC3	3	34	+14	2,298	6,396	35.93%	0.61%
Other	10	43	+33	1,336	6,894	19.38%	2.53%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.292x	=	$27.26m	$40.89m
Oppenheimer				2.623x	=	$27.54m	$41.31m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.235x	=	$30.49m	$45.74m
T-4 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.116x	=	$19.93m	$29.89m

 

*+50%

 

Better day. Could this finally be the start of the ramp up.