The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ringedmortality]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

what do we mean by breakout? $35M OW? 

 

id be good with that

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

id be good with that

That would be good and a pleasant surprise for Napoleon and the BO in general right now. If WOM is good it could play through the holidays well.  

[DAJK]

Wish is selling AWFUL. Not quite under Strange World but definitely under Encanto.

 

I’m about ready to call Napoleon over Wish for the weekend.

[TMP]

Just saw Napoleon in IMAX and it was PACKED. Felt like I was watching an MCU movie. $40m OW should be likely?

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-31, Day 1, taken at around 10:30 PM CST):

Day: T-31	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	75	74	74	13104	0.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		69	N/A	93.24
MTC1:		44	N/A	59.46
Marcus:		16	N/A	21.62
Alamo:		6	N/A	8.11
Other chains:		8	N/A	10.81

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.39x Hunger Games (11 PM CST): $2.22 Million

0.16x The Marvels (10:15 PM CST): $1.06 Million

 

Being a fraction of an MCU flick is normal, but having a Day 1 less than half of the Hunger Games prequel... yeah not great bub

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-30, Day 2):

Day: T-30	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	83	36	110	15223	0.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		98	29	89.09
MTC1:		71	27	64.55
Marcus:		23	7	20.91
Alamo:		6	0	5.45
Other chains:		10	2	9.09

 

Day 2 Comps:

0.45x Hunger Games (11 PM CST): $2.59 Million

0.22x The Marvels (10:15 PM CST): $1.48 Million

 

Average: $2.03 Million

 

It actually sold more tickets on Day 2 than The Marvels did lol. Next update in two days, switching to T-28 comps.

[abracadabra1998]

4 minutes ago, TMP said:

Just saw Napoleon in IMAX and it was PACKED. Felt like I was watching an MCU movie. $40m OW should be likely?

 

I once saw In the Heights in a near sold out theater. Exhilarating experience, but needless to say (and very sadly), not exactly an indicator of box office success. Beware of using anecdotal evidence. Most updates from Minny, Orlando, and Sacto seem to indicate a pretty strong finish, but this is the type of movie that would have weaker walk-ups by default, so maybe let's be cautiously but not overly optimistic

[crazymoviekid]

Do we have any idea on Wish's EA numbers from last Saturday?

[keysersoze123]

Wish MTC1

Tuesday - 38872/392599 562292.08 2597 shows

Wednesday - 41240/728718 553252.58 4779 shows

 

~1.7m previews going by Encanto comps. Its possible Encanto did better overall considering it was better received and probably would have played more diverse as well. But Wish will come on its own tomorrow. I expect it to win the weekend overall despite finishing below Napoleon today.  

 

Edit: this does not include early shows. Studios seem to keep them out of previews. They seem to be added to Friday shows number based on TMNT or MI7. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:04 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Napoleon MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 30617/262969 521092.39 1640 shows +7280

Wednesday - 23017/359930 381434.93 2382 shows +4676

 

Let us see where it ends up tomorrow. 

Napoleon MTC1

Previews - 61695/264105 982744.63 1650 shows

Wednesday - 33366/377139 537468.44 2534 shows

 

It more than doubled House of Gucci. Thinking close to 3M previews. Terrific final day for sure. Around low 30s until Sunday.   

[DAJK]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Napoleon MTC1

Previews - 61695/264105 982744.63 1650 shows

Wednesday - 33366/377139 537468.44 2534 shows

 

It more than doubled House of Gucci. Thinking close to 3M previews. Terrific final day for sure. Around low 30s until Sunday.   

Yep, more than double Gucci for sure. ATP is also much higher. Mid-30s or beyond wouldn’t shock me at this point.

[Cmasterclay]

Holy shit, did I actually call something right??

[Eric is Quiet]

Well...shit. If Napoleon really does land and Color Purple succeeds, stuff like Holdovers and Poor Things do solid for platform releases...maybe people are finally moving away from NTCs after all.

[keysersoze123]

On 11/20/2023 at 7:58 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1 previews - 9009/495798 179369.93 2535 shows

 

Meh but expected. Around BB level I think. Only thing is it has longer cycle and its opening just before holidays. 

Aquaman 2 MTC1 previews - 10579/499171 210996.43 2551 shows +1570

 

Only thing going for it is longer presale cycle than BB and S2. Let us see if it helps catch it. But Not seeing more than 25-30m OW at this point. 

[YM!]

38 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Napoleon MTC1

Previews - 61695/264105 982744.63 1650 shows

Wednesday - 33366/377139 537468.44 2534 shows

 

It more than doubled House of Gucci. Thinking close to 3M previews. Terrific final day for sure. Around low 30s until Sunday.   

Wasn’t able to get a full track today due to celebrating my mom’s birthday but from the buildup I saw at my theaters. Felt confident in 3M for Napoleon.

[MovieMan89]

17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Holy shit, did I actually call something right??

Props if so, no chance I would have said Napoleon could do anything. Though I will stick by it being what people must be defaulting to since nothing is pulling respectable numbers for the holidays. 

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Props if so, no chance I would have said Napoleon could do anything. Though I will stick by it being what people must be defaulting to since nothing is pulling respectable numbers for the holidays. 

Or maybe people just want to actually see it.  It happens

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Or maybe people just want to actually see it.  It happens

The critical reception for that kind of a movie would make that surprising. Those are normally tough sells as it is, middling reception would typically kill it for sure 

[babz06]

I dont know what is drawing people to Napoleon but i welcome adult fare doing well in theaters. 

[Bob Train]

Napoleon is familiar but not too familiar, which is what audiences want. Certainly more accessible than something like KOTFM as the subject matter is way more well-known. Pheonix is a decent draw even if he's no Leo.

[Cmasterclay]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The critical reception for that kind of a movie would make that surprising. Those are normally tough sells as it is, middling reception would typically kill it for sure 

The first trailer got 33 million views. That's superhero movies number. Trailer views ain't everything but clearly some real interest exists.