The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

15 hours ago, M37 said:

Even though the time period and OW range are similar, both of those films had lower early sales and a very strong finishing kick, bringing in a lot of action casuals towards the end. Not sure a slower pace sci-fi epic will replicate, so those comps will likely over-project the final value for Dune P2

 

I agree - I actually like Avatar 2 better than either...and I know, I know - Christmas season vs Spring Break season...but see, I think that plays similar for its targeted audience - 19+ having time off in both seasons (especially 19-25),,,both movies didn't draw little Timmy and Janie - they drew adults who wanted to see sci-fi fantasy...

 

So, they bought a LOT of PLF tickets and spread out that PLF over weeks...

Edited January 29 by TwoMisfits

[iEnri]

I do not remember Part 1 falling from initial projections and that had HBO Max which should lower the number of casuals. But also pre sales for it were closer to the release date than Part 2 so we will see.

[Porthos]

I agree with @TwoMisfits about Ava 2, which is why I added from Day 1.   When it comes to PLFs, one thing to keep in mind here is just as much as the EA IMAX shows are burning up demand, they're also freeing up a shit-ton of PLF tickets for Thursday and beyond.

 

Take a look at a pair of numbers from Sacto:

 

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-33 days and counting

 

PLF:   1004/9813 [10.23% sold | 89.56% of all sales]

 

Nearly 90% of all sales are PLF of some sort (including DBOX).  That should mean that there wouldn't be many PLF seats left, or at least good ones.  Yet look at the percentage sold.  Only 10% or so.  There are a LOT of great seats for PLF seats at the better theaters in town.  

 

3pm previews here is helping here if only to take off some demand from the 6-7pm corridor.  Also is allowing showtimes at 10pm corridor instead of 11pm.  Not that there'll be many in the 10pm range, but it'll be more than if they were all 11pm and later.

 

Now I don't know how indicative Sacramento is compared to other cities, especially the ones without IMAX screens.  But I wouldn't be surprised if something similar is playing out in other areas with IMAX EAs.

[keysersoze123]

Big Imaxes have sold well into the weekend. Lincoln Sq on saturday has sold (412, 412,412,323,317) across 5 shows. Sunday also is uber strong just looking at the shows. This is playing similar to Oppenheimer in 1st selling out large Imaxes and then start selling elsewhere. It more than a month to go. I think Oppenheimer comps will play out very well. 

 

Edit: Lincoln Square has sold well into its 2nd weekend. Definitely getting Oppenheimer vibes. Nolan himself calling for watching this movie on Imax 70mm does not hurt for sure. 

Edited January 29 by keysersoze123

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/24/2024 at 10:43 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Lisa Frankenstein: (Day 1, taken at 10:30 PM)

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	32	14	14	4530	0.31

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2	2	14.29
MTC1:		9	9	64.29
Marcus:		2	2	14.29
Alamo:		3	3	21.43
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Day 1 Comps:

1x Night Swim: $1.45M

0.45x Thanksgiving: $450k

 

Set the sheet up for this and thought I'd might as well post the numbers. Not a good start obviously but I don't see why there would be any sort of fan rush so it's whatever.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

A couple of the ones not many folks care about first

 

Lisa Frankenstein (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	32	13	30	4530	0.66

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2	2	6.67
MTC1:		13	9	43.33
Marcus:		2	2	6.67
Alamo:		11	3	36.67
Other chains:		4	0	13.33

 

Comps:

0.625x Thanksgiving: $625k

0.18x Haunted Mansion: $545k

 

Average: $585k

 

More comps to come.

 

The Chosen, Season 4, Eps 1-3:

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	23	532	532	2171	24.5

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		243	243	45.68
Marcus:		141	141	26.5
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		148	148	27.82

 

Comps:

4.12x The Shift: $1.54 Million

3.13x After Death: $1.25 Million

 

Average: $1.4 Million

 

Not sure if they'll even report Thursday gross for this but I always find it funny just how many tickets stuff like this sells in pre-sales.

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/25/2024 at 9:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	40	139	8206	1.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		113	31	81.29
MTC1:		108	33	77.7
Marcus:		4	0	2.88
Alamo:		18	1	12.95
Other chains:		9	6	6.47

 

Comps:

0.51x Napoleon: $1.53 Million

0.26x KOFM: $675k

0.79x The Creator: $1.06 Million

0.15x MI7: $1.08 Million

0.17x Indiana Jones: $1.22 Million

 

Average: $1.1 Million

 

Average is finally over a million so that's good I guess? It did grow against all comps, so that's a pretty good sign, but it is still highly overindexing at MTC1.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	44	64	203	8327	2.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		154	41	75.86
MTC1:		154	46	75.86
Marcus:		7	3	3.45
Alamo:		23	5	11.33
Other chains:		19	10	9.36

 

Comps:

0.5x Napoleon: $1.5 Million

0.3x KOFM: $785k

0.85x The Creator: $1.14 Million

0.15x MI7: $1.05 Million

0.17x Indiana Jones: $1.22 Million

1.42x Haunting in Venice: $1.7 Million

1.93x Iron Claw: $1.3 Million

 

Average: $1.24 Million

 

Added some more comps. Either this must really be underperforming here, or I'm missing something with my comps. Any reason this would be less front-loaded than say The Creator or Napoleon? I get MI7/Indy aren't the best comps, and even KOFM overperformed a bunch here, but I don't see why this would be any more backloaded than the two I previously mentioned. I just don't see it behaving like something like the Beekeeper, which is very friendly genre for walk-ups.

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 18862/55434 386095.68 181 shows +1026

Previews(T-33) - 27183/509465 560918.33 2536 shows +4036
Friday - 20578/787467 424849.88 3957 shows +3622
Saturday - 20415/828807 405973.15 4169 shows

 

I would say its a solid day 2. and presales are strong through the weekend. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 19734/55434 402623.92 181 shows +872

Previews(T-32) - 30858/511607 631727.38 2545 shows +3675
Friday - 24319/789991 498565.89 3968 shows +3741
Saturday - 24241/832248 477980.37 4185 shows +3826

 

Another good day for sure. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/26/2024 at 6:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-34, Day 1, taken at 6 PM):

Day: T-34, T-30	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	74	503	503	14285	3.52
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	89	481	1082	44.45
TOTALS:	78	592	984	15367	6.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		453	453	90.06
MTC1:		302	302	60.04
Marcus:		31	31	6.16
Alamo:		104	104	20.68
Other chains:		66	66	13.12

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Comps:

Day 1 Comp- 1.1x The Marvels: $7.23 Million

Oppy Comp (at T-35): 0.66x: $6.96 Million

 

Honestly, not bad at all I don't think, especially with so much demand burned off by early sales (EA is nearly at Thursday previews level rn). Gonna be following the advice of others on this one, with so many variables at the moment.

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-32):

Day: T-32, T-28	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	74	390	893	14285	6.25
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	67	548	1082	50.65
TOTALS:	78	457	1441	15367	9.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		826	453	92.5
MTC1:		509	302	57
Marcus:		107	31	11.98
Alamo:		157	104	17.58
Other chains:		120	66	13.44

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Just Thursday Comp:

1.06x Oppy: $11.14 Million

 

EA Comp:

1.27x Barbie EA: $1.4 Million

 

To provide some more context, I widened the theaters I tracked back in the summer, at Oppy T-25, so until then I am only comparing like for like theaters (and not including EA for Dune). I will be able to provide a fuller, more accurate picture of how this is doing in the region then. As for EA, Barbie was also in a limited number of screenings (6 in the region), but at T-0 it was at 98% capacity. I am intrigued to see how close Dune comes to that.

 

Having said all that, very very solid two days since my last update!

[ando]

Dune 2

Day 3 Toronto Scotiabank Theatre (IMAX showtimes only)

 

1823 total (+202 in past 24 hrs) 

 

Thu- 448

Fri- 450

Sat- 560

Sun- 365

 

Feb 25th EA show is sitting at 390/408, practically full. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29 by ando

[keysersoze123]

On 1/26/2024 at 9:13 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 12846/290951 248978.96 1415 shows +1085

Friday - 9870/549578 180964.16 2598 shows +791

 

Awful pace as I said yesterday. 

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 15915/291908 305912.83 1422 shows // +1924 over past day.

Friday - 13470/550942 246123.84 // its sold +2320 over past day. 

 

It has started to pick up as of today. Let us see how the pace goes over final 4 days. Still thinking ~2.5m for its previews. But if its a stinker it wont get there. 

[dallas]

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-4 

35 tickets sold (+7)

11 showtimes

 

(2.33x) of The Beekeeper - $5.59 Million

(0.223x) of Aquaman 2 - $1.0 Million

COMPS AVG - $3.3 Million

 

Seeing some solid growth here. My gut says to stick with my $2.5M prediction, but fortune favors the bold so I'm gonna predict $3M previews. 

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, dallas said:

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-4 

35 tickets sold (+7)

11 showtimes

 

(2.33x) of The Beekeeper - $5.59 Million

(0.223x) of Aquaman 2 - $1.0 Million

COMPS AVG - $3.3 Million

 

Seeing some solid growth here. My gut says to stick with my $2.5M prediction, but fortune favors the bold so I'm gonna predict $3M previews. 

It's got to be good if those reviews are mixed  to terrible then it's going to collapse. 

[dallas]

23 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

It's got to be good if those reviews are mixed  to terrible then it's going to collapse. 

Maybe but we said the same about Aquaman and the collapse never happened.

[iEnri]

5 minutes ago, dallas said:

Maybe but we said the same about Aquaman and the collapse never happened.

Aquaman had holidays legs to save it and is a very leggy series 

Edited January 29 by iEnri

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, iEnri said:

Aquaman had holidays legs to save it and is a very leggy series 

Yeah big difference with a sequel to a billion dollar hit that comes out at christmas and a original that comes out the first weekend of Feb. 

[HummingLemon496]

15 minutes ago, dallas said:

Maybe but we said the same about Aquaman and the collapse never happened.

Argyle is not the sequel to a 1148m film

Edited January 29 by HummingLemon496

[Porthos]

On 1/28/2024 at 12:12 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-33 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23634	24755	1121	4.53%

 

Total Showings Added Today	24
Total Seats Added Today	2516
Total Seats Sold Today	129

 

Day 2 Comps EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC/"Spaghetti at the wall" Edition [DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY!!!]

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune D2	228.31		97	491		0/74	11158/11649	4.21%		2915	38.46%		11.64m
Dune D3	206.45		52	543		0/74	11106/11649	4.66%		2915	38.46%		10.53m
Batman	34.65		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	9.53%		8.46m
TGM	58.72		393	1909		0/257	34292/36201	5.27%		11474	9.77%		11.31m
Thor 4	23.73		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	6.61%		6.88m
BP2	30.11		469	3723		0/292	32828/36551	10.19%		16800	6.67%		8.43m
Ava 2	66.37		369	1689		0/142	19649/21338	7.92%		8986	12.47%		11.28m
Wick 4	170.62		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	20.58%		15.19m
GOTG3	51.97		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	10.43%		9.09m
Fast X T-33	170.36		14	658		0/182	27086/27744	2.37%		4122	27.20%		12.78m
Oppy T-33	178.22		7	629		0/50	6943/7572	8.31%		10750	10.43%		18.71m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  The Batman had two days of exclusive pre-sales for Early Access shows which resulted in 475 seats sold before regular showtimes went on sale.

 

Regal:     337/8153  [4.13% sold]
Matinee:    15/2762  [0.54% | 1.34% of all tickets sold]
--

Sun:    558/814  [68.55% sold] [+23 tickets]
Thr:    563/23941  [2.35% sold] [+106 tickets]

PLF:   1004/9813 [10.23% sold | 89.56% of all sales]

 

===

 

Gonna switch to full T-x comps on Monday night.  Not that I'll have much to choose from, but c'est la vie.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23452	24729	1277	5.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

156

 

Day 3 Comps EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC/"Spaghetti at the wall" Edition [DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY!!!]

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune D3	235.17		52	543		0/74	11106/11649	4.66%		2915	43.81%		11.99m
Dune D4	208.66		69	612		0/75	11219/11831	5.17%		2915	43.81%		10.64m
Batman	37.65		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	10.86%		9.19m
TGM	55.55		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	11.13%		10.70m
Thor 4	25.24		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	7.53%		7.32m
BP2	31.79		294	4017		0/292	32534/36551	10.99%		16800	7.60%		8.90m
Ava 2	68.62		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	14.21%		11.67m
Wick 4	176.14		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	23.44%		15.68m
GOTG3	54.32		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	11.88%		9.51m
Fast X T-32	193.19		3	661		0/182	27083/27744	2.38%		4122	30.98%		14.49m
Oppy T-32	198.91		13	642		0/50	6930/7572	8.48%		10750	11.88%		20.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     362/8153  [4.44% sold]
Matinee:    17/2762  [0.62% | 1.33% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:        575/814  [70.64% sold] [+17 tickets]
Thr:    702/23915  [2.94% sold] [+139 tickets]
PLF:     1119/9813  [11.40% | 87.63% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Dune: Part Two's sales actually increased today.  And not by that small of an amount, either.

 

...

 

Guess all those ads on the NFL Championship games served their purpose. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited January 29 by Porthos

[vafrow]

On 1/28/2024 at 7:39 AM, vafrow said:

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-33 Thursday previews and T-29 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 119

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/2

Early Evening: 93/9

Late Evening: 25/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 30/7

IMAX: 60/4

VIP: 27/4

4dx: 2/2

 

Early Access

2 IMAX showings

Sales: 299

New Sales: na

Growth: na

 

I was out of town, so only got this set up late. 

 

There's nothing I have that can really be used as a comp here. Everything recently for this coverage area started closer to release date. And the high EA shows distorts the totals, and I don't have anything that really mimics that.

 

I'll need to see how often I update the EA shows. It's a pain to count with numbers so high through a manual count. I may focus on the previews only.

 

Also worth noting how much IMAX is driving sales. Taking EA and previews, it accounts for over 80% of sales, which is pretty crazy. The lack of EA capacity will likely see that ratio slip, but, it's worth noting, and probably drives the ticket price up. 

 

 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-32 Thursday previews and T-29 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 145

New Sales: 26

Growth: 21.8

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8.5

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/2

Early Evening: 115/9

Late Evening: 29/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 37/7

IMAX: 77/4

VIP: 29/4

4dx: 2/2

 

No update to EA shows

 

Good growth for being a few days in, especially for a Sunday evening. 

 

I didn't update the EA shows, as I may have over counted my first take yesterday, and not enough time to dissect what's happening there. I may need a more structured approach for the busier theatres. I have not had any tracks yet with a manual count and a near full IMAX theatre. It's a challenge to not lose count.

Edited January 29 by vafrow

[dallas]

Dune 2 is still selling very well here. I'm really confident in $10M previews and honestly think it could go higher. 

[abracadabra1998]

Madame Web on sale! I’m sure there will be very calm and non-ironic analysis going on today throughout this forum and Reddit