The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 20238/319428 299114.64 2001 shows

Friday - 4282/360785 63476.64 2168 shows

 

its pace for VD is very good. If it can accelerate over next 10 days, I think high single digits OD can happen. But Friday sales are dire. So not feeling the movie overall. 

wow it’s shocking OL on Friday has only 22% of VDay numbers. I think fans are trying to make like one single big day as a homage.

Edited February 4 by leoh

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23195	24729	1534	6.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

38

 

T-27 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.54		22	1589		0/171	22195/23784	6.68%		2915	52.62%		17.38m
BP2	28.43		116	5396		1/294	31623/37019	14.58%		16800	9.13%		7.96m
GOTG3	59.99		94	2557		0/206	27114/29671	8.62%		10750	14.27%		10.50m
Fast X	214.55		4	715		0/182	26985/27700	2.58%		4122	37.21%		16.09m
Indy 5	203.72		24	753		0/124	18774/19527	3.86%		4767	32.18%		14.67m
Oppy	205.08		22	748		0/53	7502/8250	9.07%		10750	14.27%		21.53m
AM3	44.84		136	3421		0/235	29108/32529	10.52%		10475	14.64%		7.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       416/8153  [5.10% sold]
Matinee:    33/2762  [1.19% | 2.15% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:        598/814  [73.46% sold] [+2 tickets]
Thr:    936/23915  [3.91% sold] [+36 tickets]
PLF:    1313/9813  [13.38% | 85.59% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Sample made at normal time last night but not posted due to BOT being flaky.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23152	24729	1577	6.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

43

 

T-26 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.75		41	1630		0/171	22154/23784	6.85%		2915	54.10%		17.41m
BP2	28.68		102	5498		1/294	31521/37019	14.85%		16800	9.39%		8.03m
GOTG3	59.62		88	2645		0/206	27026/29671	8.91%		10750	14.67%		10.43m
Fast X	218.12		8	723		0/182	26977/27700	2.61%		4122	38.26%		16.36m
Indy 5	202.18		27	780		0/124	18747/19527	3.99%		4767	33.08%		14.56m
Oppy	211.11		-1	747		0/53	7503/8250	9.05%		10750	14.67%		22.17m
AM3	44.70		107	3528		0/235	29016/32544	10.84%		10475	15.05%		7.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     428/8153   [5.25% sold]
Matinee:    33/2762  [1.19% | 2.09% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:    606/814     [74.45% sold] [+8 tickets]
Thr:    971/23915  [4.06% sold] [+35 tickets]
PLF:    1345/9813  [13.71% | 85.29% of all tickets sold]

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-27 Thursday previews and T-23 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 229

New Sales: 20

Growth: 9.6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 173/9

Late Evening: 51/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 46/7

IMAX: 138/4

VIP: 42/5

4dx: 4/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 340

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 5

Growth: 1.5%

 

A good growth day for previews. Not as much for the EA. 

 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-26 Thursday previews and T-22 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 241

New Sales: 12

Growth: 5.2%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 13.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 186/9

Late Evening: 50/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 47/7

IMAX: 141/4

VIP: 49/5

4dx: 4/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 346

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 6

Growth: 1.8%

 

Not particularly strong, but weekend updates this far out don't carry much in the way of expectations.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-13

 

Previews

Total Sales: 59

New Sales: 14

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.5

Thursday Sales: 22

Friday Sales: 30

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 38/6

Late Evening: 12/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 24/5

IMAX: 33/7

VIP: 2/1

 

T-13 Comps

2.034x Aquaman 2 for $9.1M

0.500x HG:BoSS for $2.9M

0.165x of The Marvels for $1.1M

Avg: $4.4M

 

Good growth. It's averaged 35% daily growth since it started. I'm not sure how long it can keep it up, but staying above double digits at this stage is going to see it improve against comps.

 

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-13

 

Previews

Total Sales: 64

New Sales: 5

Growth: 8.5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.9

Thursday Sales: 24

Friday Sales: 30

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 40/6

Late Evening: 15/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 26/5

IMAX: 34/7

VIP: 4/1

 

T-13 Comps

1.684x Aquaman 2 for $7.8M

0.485x HG:BoSS for $2.9M

0.176x of The Marvels for $1.2M

Avg: $3.8M

 

After saying that growth has averaged really high, it's now dropped to under 10% today, and pushed it's comps down. Weekend updates tend to be lower, but still, not great. As mentioned in another post yesterday, this is the only film available for sale for Valentine's Day, which might be giving it a boost. It loses that on Tuesday when the next week showtimes go up, and could take a hit.

[Tinalera]

Dune 2

Thurs Feb 29 and Fri Mar 1 (T-26 Thur, T-27Fri)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	25	841	4797	5638	0.1491
Fri	4	32	1031	6630	7661	0.1345
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	16	789	3327	4116	0.1916
Fri	4	28	763	9023	9786	0.0779

 

Probably buisiest Ive seen Montreal in awhile. 

[Derpity]

I'm not quite following the logic that we should have lower expectations for Dune 2 because the data is not very good. The pre-sales seem pretty darn good to me...?

[leoh]

39 minutes ago, Derpity said:

I'm not quite following the logic that we should have lower expectations for Dune 2 because the data is not very good. The pre-sales seem pretty darn good to me...?

Pre-sales are darn good for Dube only in IMAX halls. Here in NY AMC theaters Dune has also increased this week sales for Dolby Cinema halls.

 

However things don’t look that great for Dune if you look at non-PLFs formats.
 

This is why there’s an increasing skepticism on considering it a huge deal like Oppenheimer.

 

Be that as it may we are 25 days away from Dune release. Things can get better for Dune, but right now it seems to be making Wonka numbers (and this is a good thing) instead of being a 1 billion ish hit like Oppenheimer.

 

Edited February 4 by leoh

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Derpity said:

I'm not quite following the logic that we should have lower expectations for Dune 2 because the data is not very good. The pre-sales seem pretty darn good to me...?

 

Who is saying "the data is not very good"???

 

What people are saying is that we simply do not know, and IMO can not know yet, how much appeal Dune: Part Two will have with the GA/Teh Casuals.

 

So far D2 is performing pretty much exactly like a well-regarded sequel, with fan rush and everything.  What we don't know is how it's gonna finish. GA/casual appeal is much of what fuels the ending push of pre-sales, and fairly or not, Dune does have something of a — stigma?  Let's go with stigma — stigma attached to it about not being the most GA/walkup friendly type of property.  At least compared to other films that had strong fan rushes.

 

The thing is... That stigma can *VERY EASILY BE WRONG*.  There's enough data out there to suggest that the stigma is in fact overblown to some degree.  But there's also evidence out there suggesting it might be a factor on some level.

 

In short, Dune: Part Two has a pretty high floor.  What we don't know, and won't for a bit, is what its ceiling is.  Has D2 already tapped into a large part of the pool of interested movie goers?  Probably not.  Has it tapped into more of its pool than other films would have at this stage in pre-sales?

 

Unanswerable.  And, really, that's the debate right now:  How much of D2's pool has already been tapped.

 

FWIW, I think our Next Big Tell might be whatever Super Bowl Bounce it gets.  Then again, that still doesn't answer the question about the size of the overall pool of interest for Dune: Part Two, and sadly enough that won't be known for certain until much closer to release.

 

NB: In some respects this is a repeat of the arguments surrounding Avatar: The Way of Water, if on a much smaller scale.   Of course, that film had a near 3b WW predecessor and this one... doesn't.  But some of the arguments about Not Knowing Overall Pool Of Interest are in fact similar enough to provide something of a roadmap of what to look for when it comes to signs of overall GA/casual interest.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Dune 2

Thurs Feb 29 and Fri Mar 1 (T-26 Thur, T-27Fri)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	25	841	4797	5638	0.1491
Fri	4	32	1031	6630	7661	0.1345
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	16	789	3327	4116	0.1916
Fri	4	28	763	9023	9786	0.0779

 

Probably buisiest Ive seen Montreal in awhile. 

 

I'm guessing you've got a high amount of IMAX theatres in your samples. Although, your figures appear to be doing even better than mine per showtime, even just isolating my IMAX screens. Id venture to say that we're seeing a pretty big urban/suburban skew.

 

Other random question, since you're a manual counter as well. How do you accurately capture counts for these heavy sale IMAX showings? I found that I need to break it into sections to not lose count. Do you calculate capacity and work backwards? Or count ground up.

 

I really miss the old app that just gave me totals. But, I don't think the chain was thinking of ticket trackers when launching their app.

[Tinalera]

25 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I'm guessing you've got a high amount of IMAX theatres in your samples. Although, your figures appear to be doing even better than mine per showtime, even just isolating my IMAX screens. Id venture to say that we're seeing a pretty big urban/suburban skew.

 

Other random question, since you're a manual counter as well. How do you accurately capture counts for these heavy sale IMAX showings? I found that I need to break it into sections to not lose count. Do you calculate capacity and work backwards? Or count ground up.

 

I really miss the old app that just gave me totals. But, I don't think the chain was thinking of ticket trackers when launching their app.

The Imaxes are definitely bigger counts. For Dune I can show separately Imax themselves in addtion to the counts if that would help at all. 

 

How I keep track.......

 

In all seriousness. Ive basically had to try and find collections of groups that I can multiply (IE 8 rows by 6 rows) and then add the other ones. I kind of do both as far as the counts. If the seat counts are low, they I simply subtract the low count number from the the total. For high seat counts, esp when they start getting more filled than unfilled, then I count the unsold seats and in do it that way. But yea its fun trying to count an Imax theatre that is approximately 65 percent or more filled. Thankfully the theatres I have are (mostly) set for their various locations and capacities, which I already have in the chart, its just doing the minusing, but yea the counting can get brutal lol

 

Also note- this is why Im sticking to a max of 4 theatres per city, even if (Toronto) has more. It was easier with the seats sold/total seat number, but now? I really cannot do like 10 theatres in Toronto by manual counting, my brain just kind of....breaks lol

I too miss the seats sold/total. For our theatre (we are calling MTC 4 I believe?) they pretty much dont have much competition. Its not like counts would give adventage to a big competing chain, so why cut those numbers? 

 

 

Edited February 4 by Tinalera

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3639	104695	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1546

 

COMPS

T-26

 

(1.457x) of Oppenheimer $15.30M 

(0.959x) of Indy 5 $6.91M 

(2.431x) of Wonka $8.51M 

(2.215x) of Aquaman 2 $9.97M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.17M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3715	104695	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

76

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1560

*14 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(1.456x) of Oppenheimer $15.29M 

(0.960x) of Indy 5 $6.91M 

(2.287x) of Wonka $8.00M 

(2.161x) of Aquaman 2 $9.72M 

 

Comps AVG: $9.98M

 

Pace is behaving more like a CBM than say Wonka or Oppy. The floor is already pretty high though 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2667	93918	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

746

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.878x) of Blue Beetle $2.90M 

(0.744x) of AquaMan 2 $3.35M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.13M

 

Couldn't update last night. BOT wasn't loading for me 

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2835	93918	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

168

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

793

*47 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.913x) of Blue Beetle $3.01M 

(0.776x) of AquaMan 2 $3.49M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.25M

 

Pace is actually pretty good, but this isn't previews so not exactly a clear picture...

[leoh]

40 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3715	104695	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

76

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1560

*14 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(1.456x) of Oppenheimer $15.29M 

(0.960x) of Indy 5 $6.91M 

(2.287x) of Wonka $8.00M 

(2.161x) of Aquaman 2 $9.72M 

 

Comps AVG: $9.98M

 

Pace is behaving more like a CBM than say Wonka or Oppy. The floor is already pretty high though 

 When you say Dune pre sales “pace is behaving more like a CBM” you mean Dune might be very front loaded, right? 

 

@Shawn Robbins mentioned this as a possible risky factor for Dune a couple of days ago. 

 

Here in AMC NY theaters what I have noticed since Tuesday was a decent increase in sales for Dolby Cinema. But still in non-PLFs formats things are not good for Dune.

 

Idk perhaps Duna marketing focusing too much on “you have to watch it in IMAX” may be leading people into “if I can’t watch it in IMAX, I am not watching it at all”… and IMAX theaters are packed rn

Edited February 4 by leoh

[SpiderByte]

3 hours ago, Derpity said:

I'm not quite following the logic that we should have lower expectations for Dune 2 because the data is not very good. The pre-sales seem pretty darn good to me...?

It's doing good relative to the first Dune, but it's not gonna be like Oppenheimer or Top Gun type deal. A reasonably more successful sequel to the first.

 

Basically what it means is the first probably wasn't hit as hard by COVID as initially thought.

[Speedorito]

20 minutes ago, leoh said:

 When you say Dune pre sales “pace is behaving more like a CBM” you mean Dune might be very front loaded, right? 

 

@Shawn Robbins mentioned this as a possible risky factor for Dune a couple of days ago. 

 

Here in AMC NY theaters what I have noticed since Tuesday was a decent increase in sales for Dolby Cinema. But still in non-PLFs formats things are not good for Dune.

 

Idk perhaps Duna marketing focusing too much on “you have to watch it in IMAX” may be leading people into “if I can’t watch it in IMAX, I am not watching it at all”… and IMAX theaters are packed rn

I’ve been seeing that too. The Fan First Early Access screening (in IMAX) is selling very well and the IMAX showings on opening weekend are selling well, but the standard showings have sold very few tickets.

 

I don’t think it’s the marketing though. I think Denis Villeneuve and Dune’s fanbases just skew very heavily to IMAX (just like Nolan and Oppenheimer) but they’re not attracting the general audience, who don’t know/care about the best format, as strongly.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Tinalera said:

The Imaxes are definitely bigger counts. For Dune I can show separately Imax themselves in addtion to the counts if that would help at all. 

 

How I keep track.......

 

In all seriousness. Ive basically had to try and find collections of groups that I can multiply (IE 8 rows by 6 rows) and then add the other ones. I kind of do both as far as the counts. If the seat counts are low, they I simply subtract the low count number from the the total. For high seat counts, esp when they start getting more filled than unfilled, then I count the unsold seats and in do it that way. But yea its fun trying to count an Imax theatre that is approximately 65 percent or more filled. Thankfully the theatres I have are (mostly) set for their various locations and capacities, which I already have in the chart, its just doing the minusing, but yea the counting can get brutal lol

 

Also note- this is why Im sticking to a max of 4 theatres per city, even if (Toronto) has more. It was easier with the seats sold/total seat number, but now? I really cannot do like 10 theatres in Toronto by manual counting, my brain just kind of....breaks lol

I too miss the seats sold/total. For our theatre (we are calling MTC 4 I believe?) they pretty much dont have much competition. Its not like counts would give adventage to a big competing chain, so why cut those numbers? 

 

 

 

I've been sticking with a sample of 5, which includes a few different types of theatres: big 24 screen multiplex, a couple of smaller ones focusing on VIP recliners and just an older mid size. I've got two IMAX in my sample as well.

 

I find I like to do daily counts or close to it, so, I really can't afford to bite off more than I can chew, and want to avoid tracking more than two films at a given time. Dune starting early was a bit annoying, but there's not much else on the horizon, so it should be manageable.

[leoh]

9 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I’ve been seeing that too. The Fan First Early Access screening (in IMAX) is selling very well and the IMAX showings on opening weekend are selling well, but the standard showings have sold very few tickets.

 

I don’t think it’s the marketing though. I think Denis Villeneuve and Dune’s fanbases just skew very heavily to IMAX (just like Nolan and Oppenheimer) but they’re not attracting the general audience, who don’t know/care about the best format, as strongly.

“though. I think Denis Villeneuve and Dune’s fanbases just skew very heavily to IMAX”

 

agree!!!!! The fact that Oppenheimer started with no fanbase may have helped him, general audience was more curious to watch it because it was a Nolan Movie, the star was Nolan not the movie itself so it was ok to watch it in conventional non-PLFa halls.

 

Meanwhile, idk but the over hype on IMAX thing (boosted by Dune fans themselves) might be showing its side effects.
 

[lorddemaxus]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Who is saying "the data is not very good"???

There's a new user on this thread who seems really inexperienced with this kind of stuff and just making bold and terrible statements based on the data being presented here (and their own skim through of what I assume is the AMC Lincoln).

[leoh]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

It's doing good relative to the first Dune, but it's not gonna be like Oppenheimer or Top Gun type deal. A reasonably more successful sequel to the first.

 

Basically what it means is the first probably wasn't hit as hard by COVID as initially thought.

Agreed

 

It’s more and more likely by all the tracks we are seeing on BOT that Dune won’t get even close Oppenheimer 1 billion ish  box office. Top Gun is out of question I guess.

 

Yet it’s also pretty clear that Dune 2 will get a way bigger box office than first Dune movie.

 

@Shawn Robbins is projecting it to increase up to ~50% compared to first Dune movie domestically. If apply the same rate to international box office, it’s pretty reasonable to project it to get around 600M ww box office. Then we’d def have a another sequel to this masterpiece. Hope it’s as good as the first one.

Edited February 5 by leoh

[dallas]

Lisa Frankenstein

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-4

16 tickets sold (+1)

 

Comps:

(0.190x) of Lisa Frankenstein - $0.62 Million

 

Really blah pace. Don't think this does well at all.