The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ThomasNicole]

Curious trajectory for Madame Web

 

Press tour for this has been hilarious because it’s so messy, and it’s constantly getting viral on social media because the interviews are cringe or corny

 

Would be funny if people just decides to see it and ironically support it, kinda like Morbius but with some real effect

 

Let’s see if it happens, data has been more promising than expected 

[HummingLemon496]

I'm unironcially glad about this Madame Web stuff

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Curious trajectory for Madame Web

 

Press tour for this has been hilarious because it’s so messy, and it’s constantly getting viral on social media because the interviews are cringe or corny

 

Would be funny if people just decides to see it and ironically support it, kinda like Morbius but with some real effect

 

Let’s see if it happens, data has been more promising than expected 

Tbh I seriously believe Morbius had some legit impact because that was the point where meme-ing movies got very popular. And in some cases (Barbenheimer) people are laughing with it instead of at it. Like the phrase "Barbie makes Barbillion" would not exist if it weren't for Morbius (Morbillion).

Edited February 11 by HummingLemon496

[iEnri]

People are believing too much in Madame Web here. Tracking is still not great and even it was good this movie will crush and burn once reviews are out anyway

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, iEnri said:

People are believing too much in Madame Web here. Tracking is still not great and even it was good this movie will crush and burn once reviews are out anyway

Yes, you're definitely right. But it is funny how it's not 100.00% DOA like I thought it was gonna be

[leoh]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Curious trajectory for Madame Web

 

Press tour for this has been hilarious because it’s so messy, and it’s constantly getting viral on social media because the interviews are cringe or corny

 

Would be funny if people just decides to see it and ironically support it, kinda like Morbius but with some real effect

 

Let’s see if it happens, data has been more promising than expected 

Dakota Johnson iconic press tour proves she def knows how to make people keep talking about her movie, yesterday there was even an earthquake during her interview in California hahahahaha

Edited February 11 by leoh

[leoh]

32 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I'm unironcially glad about this Madame Web stuff

it is really good specially for theaters, theaters are def going to have a way better VDay than they were predicting a couple of weeks ago. I have friends who their jobs are directly linked to theaters and this year projections were threatening the existence of many theaters. This is why this year I’m always cheering for the success of movies. I feel like people who keep trying to put hate and negativity towards movies coming out this year don’t have a clue of how many theaters would be closed if early projections for this were true (2023 didn’t even get a full recovery). I hope from now on we keep getting good surprises and films keep exceeding expectations

Edited February 11 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

On 2/9/2024 at 8:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 55415/453958 836857.61 2912 shows +7252

Friday - 8832/384880 135658.22 2296 shows +902

 

Weird the pace went down a bit today. May be the reviews actually boosted the number yesterday or bad reviews brought the pace down today. Still solid number overall for VD. 

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 63125/456969 954568.59 2940 shows +7710

Friday - 9898/386515 152702.86 2304 shows +1066

 

Pace seems flat but at a high level for VD. It will not hit the number I expected yesterday by tomorrow night. Still I will stick to what I predicted earlier. 

[keysersoze123]

On 2/9/2024 at 9:45 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 24973/602338 414877.6 2969 shows +2787

Friday - 9324/586940 158712.20 2735 shows +669

 

Interesting this movie increased today compared to yesterday's pace 🙂

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 27555/602978 456471.09 2973 shows +2582

Friday - 10057/587876 171096.55 2739 shows +734

 

Wait where is this 30m prediction coming for this movie. I am seeing around 20m till president's day. Its presales skew VD and that is pacing < 1/3rd of Marley. Not sure if its even hitting 4m OD. Needs strong finish and we have not seen any acceleration so far. 

 

 

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 27555/602978 456471.09 2973 shows +2582

Friday - 10057/587876 171096.55 2739 shows +734

 

Wait where is this 30m prediction coming for this movie. I am seeing around 20m till president's day. Its presales skew VD and that is pacing < 1/3rd of Marley. Not sure if its even hitting 4m OD. Needs strong finish and we have not seen any acceleration so far. 

Never mind, you're right 30M+ definitely not happening. And reviews/word of mouth will probably lead to a piss poor multiplier throughout the weekend

[JustLurking]

Not sure where talk of exceeding expectations is even coming from? Deadline's initial projections were for 25M over the 6-day frame, numbers so far don't really seem to be predicting a result any better than that.

[HummingLemon496]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Not sure where talk of exceeding expectations is even coming from? Deadline's initial projections were for 25M over the 6-day frame, numbers so far don't really seem to be predicting a result any better than that.

Yup this movie is DOA

[TheTom]

36 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Never mind, you're right 30M+ definitely not happening. And reviews/word of mouth will probably lead to a piss poor multiplier throughout the weekend

WoM can be good and boost  the box office, most of tracks are showing a good increase for Madame Web towards 5M+ on Valentine’s Day, keysersoze123 tracking is the only one which is questioning even 4M. So different tracks, different results and different interpretation. Who is closer to the truth we’ll only know on Wednesday. For now, trackers are doing their best of course.
 

WoM nowadays pretty much defines how much successful a Movie will be, that’s why The Color Purple OD was 3x Anyone But You opening WEEKEND and even so now Anyone But You is projected to end its run with almost 2x TCP total. So it’s all a matter of waiting the WoM.

Edited February 11 by TheTom

[WorkingonaName]

Just wait til Madme Web gets those Titanic legs. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 63125/456969 954568.59 2940 shows +7710

Friday - 9898/386515 152702.86 2304 shows +1066

 

Pace seems flat but at a high level for VD. It will not hit the number I expected yesterday by tomorrow night. Still I will stick to what I predicted earlier. 

Generally, it would have dropped yesterday being Saturday, an increase from an already huge pace is insane. I know something gonna/gotta go wrong for this eventually but this is kind of annoying.

 

I don't know why you aren't impressed by pace though. 7.7K is insanity. Barbie had 11K on SAT before release.

Edited February 11 by charlie Jatinder

[emoviefan]

This Madame Web back and forth is hilarious. It's gonna exceed expectations. Wait no it's not. Wait yes it is. 

[leoh]

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Generally, it would have dropped yesterday being Saturday, an increase from an already huge pace is insane. I know something gonna/gotta go wrong for this eventually but this is kind of annoying.

 

I don't know why you aren't impressed by pace though. 7.7K is insanity. Barbie had 11K on SAT before release.

idk what you mean exactly by “go wrong” but OL  got only 35% from critics on Rotten Tomatoes and ~3 stars on letterbox…..

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bob_marley_one_love

 

 

About Barbie comparison, keep in mind @keysersoze123 numbers are a local sample, it’s not a nationwide number. So it can just be over performing in this @keysersoze123 location while Barbie probably was just underperforming there. Barbie first day (previews) was 22M, and I don’t think any movie have a chance to get this at least till the summer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 11 by leoh

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

idk what you mean by “go wrong” but OL  got only 35% from critics on Rotten Tomatoes and ~3 starts on letterbox…..

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bob_marley_one_love

 

 

About Barbie comparison, keep in mind @keysersoze123 numbers are only a local sample, it’s not a nationwide number. So it can just be over performing in this @keysersoze123 location and Barbie probably was just underperforming there. Barbie OD was 22M, and I don’t think any movie have a change to get this at least till the summer.

[leoh]

14 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

This summer there are some big franchises releasing their sequels…..

[leoh]

4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	134	204	549	23609	2.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		342	110	62.3
MTC1:		287	98	52.28
Marcus:		94	28	17.12
Alamo:		46	16	8.38
Other chains:		122	62	22.22

 

Comps:

1.28x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.76 Million

1.5x Wonka: $5.25 Million

0.52x BoSS: $3 Million

2.33x Blue Beetle: $7.68 Million

0.41x MI7 (TUE): $2.84 Million

 

Average: $4.91 Million

 

Really really good update, but it's a funky T-7 to T-4 update compared to other movies that had previews on Thursday, hence me adding the MI7 comp. Tomorrow should balance it out since people will be busy watching the Superbowl. Also, like @Porthos mentioned, slightly higher portion of matinee tickets (but not as much as you'd think, since it's not a holiday). Pretty positive update though, no way around it

yeah it’s a good increase indeed, this also matches what @TheFlatLannisterreported earlier about its performance in Florida/Orlando.

 

Btw, it’s really interesting how well BoSS seems to have done in Saint Paul area, surprisingly close to MI7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 11 by leoh