The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

On 2/10/2024 at 1:30 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22847	24716	1869	7.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-20 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	57.77		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	15.90%		14.11m
TGM	71.75		306	2605		0/257	33617/36222	7.19%		11474	16.29%		13.82m
JWD	94.35		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		2915	64.12%		16.98m
Thor 4	33.83		234	5525		0/228	26075/31600	17.48%		16962	11.02%		9.81m
BP2	30.09		114	6212		1/294	30810/37022	16.78%		16800	11.13%		8.42m
Ava 2	87.83		98	2128		0/142	19210/21338	9.97%		8986	20.80%		14.93m
Wick 4	257.79		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	34.31%		22.94m
AM3	45.24		63	4131		0/235	28425/32556	12.69%		10475	17.84%		7.92m
GOTG3	58.72		76	3183		0/206	26483/29666	10.73%		10750	17.39%		10.28m
Fast X	233.63		15	800		0/182	26910/27710	2.89%		4122	45.34%		17.52m
Indy 5	191.69		43	975		0/124	18546/19521	4.99%		4767	39.21%		13.80m
Oppy	212.87		18	878		0/53	7372/8250	10.64%		10750	17.39%		22.35m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      508/8153  [6.23% sold]
Matinee:    67/2762  [2.43% | 3.58% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:           617/814  [75.80% sold] [+1 tickets]
Thr:    1252/23902  [5.24% sold] [+40 tickets]
PLF:      1569/9813  [15.99% | 83.95% of all tickets sold]

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22828	24716	1888	7.64%

 

Total Net Seats Sold Today

19*

*NOTE: A suspect DBOX sellout from a few days ago was finally reversed tonight.  If that is backdated, the actual total tickets sold today was 39.  See below for a fuller explanation.

 

T-19 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.66		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	16.06%		13.59m
TGM	66.08		252	2857		0/257	33363/36220	7.89%		11474	16.45%		12.73m
JWD	91.34		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		2915	64.77%		16.44m
Thor 4	33.24		155	5680		0/228	25920/31600	17.97%		16962	11.13%		9.64m
BP2	29.90		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	11.24%		8.37m
Ava 2	83.17		142	2270		0/142	19068/21338	10.64%		8986	21.01%		14.14m
Wick 4	244.56		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	34.65%		21.77m
AM3	45.25		41	4172		0/235	28384/32556	12.81%		10475	18.02%		7.92m
GOTG3	57.74		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		10750	17.56%		10.10m
Fast X	232.80		11	811		0/182	26899/27710	2.93%		4122	45.80%		17.46m
Indy 5	184.56		48	1023		0/124	18498/19521	5.24%		4767	39.61%		13.29m
Oppy	208.39		28	906		0/53	7344/8250	10.98%		10750	17.56%		21.88m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       527/8153  [6.46% sold]
Matinee:    67/2762  [2.43% | 3.55% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          617/814  [75.80% sold] [+0 tickets]
Thr:    1271/23902  [5.32% sold] [+19 tickets]
PLF:      1577/9813  [16.07% | 83.53% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Once again, a couple of notes.

 

First off, if folks didn't see my post from earlier, turns out that Dune: Part Two isn't going to have any sort of Super Bowl preference.  I made my initial (and subsequent) posts on the subject off a mention in one of the Trades about films that were expected to have SB trailers, with D2 being one of them.  But when I went to confirm it this afternoon, I found out that WB looks to be completely punting the SB.

 

As such, I fully expect some pretty terribad numbers locally tomorrow as this entire region is gonna be football mad tomorrow.

 

Secondly, a few days ago, I noted a suspect DBOX sellout worth 20 tickets.  Wasn't reversed until tonight.  I will in fact adjust it on my historical sheets, but for those keeping track the numbers go like this:

 

T-22: 56 tickets sold [-20 from reported total]

T-21:  55 tickets sold

T-20:  41 tickets sold

T-19:  39 tickets sold [+20 from reported total]

 

Which, honestly looks more likely anyway.

Edited February 18 by Porthos

[Krissykins]

5 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I'm unironcially glad about this Madame Web stuff

 

3 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yup this movie is DOA

It’s a rollercoaster then lol.

 

Interesting that some have it at 5, some have it struggling to 4. Least it’s not a very predictable one. 

[vafrow]

On 2/10/2024 at 5:07 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-20 Thursday previews and T-16 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 326

New Sales: 12

Growth: 3.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 18.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 254/9

Late Evening: 65/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 67/7

IMAX: 188/4

VIP: 63/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.150 of Marvels for $7.6M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 380

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 1

Growth: 0.3%

 

Slow growth, but, I finally have a comp. 

 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-19 Thursday previews and T-15 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 342

New Sales: 16

Growth: 4.9%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 18.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 268/9

Late Evening: 67/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 75/7

IMAX: 192/4

VIP: 65/5

4dx: 10/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.213 of Marvels for $8.0M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 382

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 2

Growth: 0.5%

 

While growth isn't terribly high, it's enough to outpace Marvels right now.

[vafrow]

On 2/10/2024 at 5:14 AM, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-5

 

Previews

Total Sales: 232

New Sales: 36

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 11/4

Early Evening: 169/7

Late Evening: 52/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 116/7

IMAX: 48/6

VIP: 66/5

Regular: 2/2

 

Comps

1.917x Aquaman 2 for $8.6M

0.932x HG:BoSS for $5.4M

0.589x of The Marvels for $3.9M

Avg: $6.0M

 

A couple of days ago, I thought this might land at $6.0M as it's final number. We're there at T-5.

 

Given other markets aren't showing this type of performance, my best theory is that Valentine's Day is just a stronger day up here for whatever reason. I believe Jat has mentioned before that weekdays are generally stronger in Canada, and that can be an influence.

 

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-4

 

Previews

Total Sales: 287

New Sales: 55

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/2

Late Afternoon: 13/4

Early Evening: 203/7

Late Evening: 69/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 134/7

IMAX: 63/6

VIP: 86/5

Regular: 4/2

 

Comps

2.110x Aquaman 2 for $9.5M

0.980x HG:BoSS for $5.6M

0.709x of The Marvels for $4.7M

Avg: $6.6M

 

I continues to show no sign of aligning to the consensus. At this stage, it's about to overtake HGBoSS. It's gained well against Marvels, that it might catch it. 

[vafrow]

On 2/10/2024 at 5:24 AM, vafrow said:

 

One Love, T-5, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

 

Total Sales: 539

New Sales: 104

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 27.0

 

Comps

0.907x of FNAF for $9.3M

2.323 of Madame Web for ($13.8M)*

*Using estimate based on comps

 

Hear me out on the FNAF comp. They're selling in a similar range, both over a very short sales cycle in Canada. Both have bad reviews, which might have a slowdown impact in the final days.

 

As for sales, there's lots of showings where you can see tickets bought in pairings for Valentine's Day, but there are other showings almost sold out, that went so quickly between day 7 and 6 that it might be group sales. 

 

One Love, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

 

Total Sales: 641

New Sales: 102

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 32.0

 

Comps

0.879x of FNAF for $9.1M

2.233 of Madame Web for ($14.7M)*

2.188x HG:BoSS for $12.6M

*Using estimate based on comps

Average: $12.1M

Still using an active track as a comp because the outselling of MW is still the most interesting element. I threw in HG as a quick comp, as it's probably the most relevant of my othrr options based on sales curve.

 

I still thought using FNAF as a comp would be more controversial.

[iEnri]

Dune growth will start to grow very soon I think. Feb 12th is the movie premiere in Paris, then in 15th the embargo will be lifted and there is also be the UK premiere in that day. Dune's marketing about to hit its peak very soon

[abracadabra1998]

Valentine’s Day is also making it so that both of these films are indexing less at MTC1, compared to other blockbusters (both Aquaman and BB here were at around 70% MTC1 at T-4, while Web is near 50%). Something to take into account

[vafrow]

44 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Valentine’s Day is also making it so that both of these films are indexing less at MTC1, compared to other blockbusters (both Aquaman and BB here were at around 70% MTC1 at T-4, while Web is near 50%). Something to take into account

 

Interesting. Do you have a theory as to why? 

 

In Canada, with the market dominated by one chain, I don't have a grasp on the dynamics down there for this type of stuff. 

[HummingLemon496]

5 hours ago, Krissykins said:

It’s a rollercoaster then lol.

 

Interesting that some have it at 5, some have it struggling to 4. Least it’s not a very predictable one. 

Well yeah, it's DOA because reviews/WOM will probably tank it, but I'm glad it's actually showing some signs of life 

[abracadabra1998]

28 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Interesting. Do you have a theory as to why? 

 

In Canada, with the market dominated by one chain, I don't have a grasp on the dynamics down there for this type of stuff. 

More casual audience, like the kind VD brings about —> higher % sales in smaller chains or local theaters. While MTC1/Alamo is more A-List/cinephile heavy (no MTC2 in my market so I can’t speak for that)

 

Like Jat said though, T-4 being on a Saturday also messes with comps since that’s different than most other comps being used. Super Bowl being today also will mean less sales, but I imagine that’ll bounce back tomorrow after the trailers being played. So I don’t know, it’s all a bit messy and people shouldn’t overreact. This is the Internet after all though…

[TheFlatLannister]

11 hours ago, iEnri said:

People are believing too much in Madame Web here. Tracking is still not great and even it was good this movie will crush and burn once reviews are out anyway

But it’s not DOA like many thought it would be. I wasn’t even sure this was making $10M+ in its OW a few months ago, now we are talking about a possible $30M opening 

[iEnri]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

But it’s not DOA like many thought it would be. I wasn’t even sure this was making $10M+ in its OW a few months ago, now we are talking about a possible $30M opening 

You are right, I am just pointing out some overly optimistism from a few accounts. Dakota Johnson promotion was going a bit viral, this has to be the reason lol

[ViewerAnon]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

I continues to show no sign of aligning to the consensus. At this stage, it's about to overtake HGBoSS. It's gained well against Marvels, that it might catch it. 

 

omg if I turn on Twitter ad revenue can I say "Current data shows DUNE 2 opening lower than THE MARVELS"? My engagement will be through the roof and I can move to a tropical island.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

omg if I turn on Twitter ad revenue can I say "Current data shows DUNE 2 opening lower than THE MARVELS"? My engagement will be through the roof and I can move to a tropical island.

no

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

omg if I turn on Twitter ad revenue can I say "Current data shows DUNE 2 opening lower than THE MARVELS"? My engagement will be through the roof and I can move to a tropical island.

...the post you quoted is about madame web?

[TheTom]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

...the post you quoted is about madame web?

He’s just joking around about how people get engagement on internet I guess lol

Edited February 11 by TheTom

[ViewerAnon]

I need the engagement, it feeds me, it doesn't matter if the information is accurate or not. Cliiiiiiiiiicks.

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/9/2024 at 6:09 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-27, Day 1 taken at 6 PM):

Day: T-27	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	63	26	26	9083	0.29

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	4	15.38
MTC1:		22	22	84.62
Marcus:		4	4	15.38
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.55x Wonka: $1.94 Million

1.08x Trolls Band Together (w/ EA): $2.68 Million

 

Average: $2.31 Million

 

I will add Wish at T-25 and Haunted Mansion at T-21 as comps, but obviously not the best start, as others have pointed out. It's animation though and will skew young, and I didn't really expect a crazy rush from adults (versus something like say, Shrek or even a Pixar flick). We shall see

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	66	21	47	9739	0.48

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	0	8.51
MTC1:		38	16	80.85
Marcus:		4	0	8.51
Alamo:		5	5	10.64
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

0.51x Wonka: $1.79 Million

0.82x Wish (w/ EA): $1.9 Million

0.26x Trolls Band Together (w/ EA): $630k*

 

*Trolls EA absolutely exploded here, considering taking it off this comps list after today until past its EA date and then just comparing it with THU previews

 

Average: $1.44 Million

 

Trolls is bringing it down a bit but even so, not great 😕 

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Opening Day:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 4-6 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	28	210	210	2580	8.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		84	84	40
Marcus:		62	62	29.52
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		64	64	30.48

 

Comps:

0.39x The Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $565k

1.24x After Death: $495k

1.63x The Shift: $605k

 

Average: $555k

 

Interesting that it's selling so much worse than the first few "episodes" but in truth I know almost nothing about these "movies" so I can't really tell you why

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/8/2024 at 10:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	76	178	1455	14835	9.81
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	28	639	1082	59.06
TOTALS:	80	206	2094	15917	13.16

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1323	160	90.93
MTC1:		800	94	54.98
Marcus:		164	11	11.27
Alamo:		241	33	16.56
Other chains:		250	40	17.18

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.52x Oppy: $16 Million

1.79x The Marvels: $11.78 Million

2.09x MI7 (w/ EA): $18.79 Million

 

Comps (w/ EA):

2.19x Oppy: $23.02 Million

2.57x The Marvels: $16.96 Million

3.37x MI7: $30.29 Million

 

Comps (average EA and THU):

1.85x Oppy: $19.51 Million

2.18x The Marvels: $14.37 Million

2.73x Mi7: $24.54 Million

 

Mandatory warning to not take comps seriously, especially this MI7 comp that was just added. That will be going down a LOT

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-14	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	76	142	1597	14835	10.77
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	41	680	1082	62.85
TOTALS:	80	183	2277	15917	14.31

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.47x Oppy: $15.45 Million

1.8x The Marvels: $11.86 Million

MI7: Missed

 

Comps (w/ EA):

2.1x Oppy: $22.04 Million

2.56x The Marvels: $16.9 Million

MI7: Missed

 

Comps (average EA and THU):

1.79x Oppy: $18.75 Million

2.18x The Marvels: $14.38 Million

MI7: Missed

 

I'll be adding Indy and Barbie comps in the next update, and I will likely stop doing the EA and EA-average comps unless folks really feel strongly otherwise. With only 4 screens in town, I feel like it's just muddying the waters a bit too much