The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/12/2024 at 4:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
887	8	1353	65.56%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

444

1794

24.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

386

1388

27.81%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1806	60	18719	9.65%	13	91

 

1.534	Oppenheimer T-17	16.11M
2.656	Indiana Jones T-17	19.12M

0.888

Batman T-17*

19.19M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 5 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
992	105	1353	73.32%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

507

1794

28.26%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

458

1951

23.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 5 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2190	384	19298	11.35%	13	94

 

2.738

Indiana Jones T-12

19.71M

0.818	Avatar 2 T-12	13.90M
0.443	Thor L&T T-12	12.85M

2.352

Dune Part 1 T-12

12.00M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/12/2024 at 4:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-17 Thursday

175 Showings

7715

+203

25893

ATP:

18.35

2.030	Oppenheimer T-17	21.32M
1.830	Indiana Jones T-17	13.18M

1.082

Batman T-17*

19.04M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-18 Friday

253 Showings

8667

+245

37718

ATP:

17.91

2.278	Oppenheimer T-18	51.30M
2.424	Indiana Jones T-18	40.73M

1.285

Batman T-18

45.09M

 

T-19 Saturday

261 Showings

10292

+278

39076

ATP:

17.36

2.194	Oppenheimer T-19	58.26M
2.921	Indiana Jones T-19	54.28M

1.813

Batman T-19

78.43M

 

T-20 Sunday

238 Showings

6167

+248

35376

ATP:

17.53

2.111	Oppenheimer T-20	48.94M
3.287	Indiana Jones T-20	59.50M

2.691

Batman T-20

91.86M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2 [+5 days of sales]

T-12 Thursday

177 Showings

9059

+1344

26129

ATP:

18.08

1.864

Indiana Jones T-12

13.42M

2.117	Avatar T-12	35.98M
0.744	Thor L&T T-12	21.58M

 

T-13 Friday

257 Showings

10373

+1706

38139

ATP:

17.69

2.417

Indiana Jones T-13

40.60M

1.905	Avatar T-13	68.96M
1.049	Thor L&T T-13	42.53M

 

T-14 Saturday

269 Showings

12138

+1846

39924

ATP:

17.20

2.947

Indiana Jones T-14

54.75M

1.935	Avatar T-14	85.78M
1.309	Thor L&T T-14	55.12M

 

T-15 Sunday

243 Showings

7846

+1679

35912

ATP:

17.29

3.402

Indiana Jones T-15

61.58M

2.141	Avatar T-15	78.31M
1.551	Thor L&T T-15	50.39M

 

It's really overperforming here... might add Barbie as a comp tomorrow just for fun

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/12/2024 at 4:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-17 Thursday

104 Showings

978

+54

17358

1.309	Oppenheimer T-17	13.75M
1.143	Indiana Jones T-17	8.23M

 

T-18 Friday

162 Showings

1198

+45

27352

2.037	Oppenheimer T-18	45.88M
3.003	Indiana Jones T-18	50.44M

 

T-19 Saturday

168 Showings

1093

+45

28395

2.767	Oppenheimer T-19	72.64M
4.651	Indiana Jones T-19	86.42M

 

T-20 Sunday

162 Showings

348

+19

27624

1.766	Oppenheimer T-20	40.97M
3.910	Indiana Jones T-20	70.77M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2 [+5 days of sales]

T-12 Thursday

103 Showings

1318

+340

17440

1.341

Indiana Jones T-12

9.65M

 

T-13 Friday

162 Showings

1758

+560

27695

2.940

Indiana Jones T-13

49.39M

 

T-14 Saturday

168 Showings

1639

+546

28840

4.982

Indiana Jones T-14

92.56M

 

T-15 Sunday

162 Showings

553

+205

27960

3.894

Indiana Jones T-15

70.49M

[iEnri]

Many users were saying Dune would decrease with time, but this isnt happening and growth is solid. If this continues, I am starting to think 90M+ opening is possible

Edited February 17 by iEnri

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	5313	106182	5.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

246

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2147

*41 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.477x) of Oppenheimer $15.50M 

(0.914x) of Flash $8.87M 

(2.426x) of Wonka $8.49M 

(2.241x) of Aquaman 2 $10.08M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.74M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	5500	106182	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

187

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2231

*84 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(1.448x) of Oppenheimer $15.20M 

(0.690x) of Barbie $15.50M 

(0.915x) of Flash $8.87M 

(2.460x) of Wonka $8.61M 

(2.281x) of Aquaman 2 $10.27M 

 

Comps AVG: $11.69M

 

Added Barbie comp cause why not!!

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, iEnri said:

Many users were saying Dune would decrease with time, but this isnt happening and growth is solid. If this continues, I am starting to think 90M+ opening is possible

I'm not sure about other markets, but for Orlando, Dune has been steadily decreasing vs Oppy 

 

I also don't think Barbie or Oppy are even good comps considering Dune 2 is a sequel and Barbie and Oppy are original films that exploded later into their runs  

[Derpity]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'm not sure about other markets, but for Orlando, Dune has been steadily decreasing vs Oppy 

 

I also don't think Barbie or Oppy are even good comps considering Dune 2 is a sequel and Barbie and Oppy are original films that exploded later into their runs  

Barbie not sure, but Oppenheimer I think is a decent match, think there's a ton of overlap in the audience excited for both films, and they're likely going to be on similar critical footing. Oppenheimer obv had it's own thing with Barbenheimer but I don't think it's that far off, in an overall sense.

 

These boring CBMs with mediocre reviews from directors you've never heard of aren't exactly perfect comps either.

[jeffthehat]

On 2/15/2024 at 6:44 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	-14	730	9684	54	+21.1%
Fri	-15	1086	22401	129	+15.7%

 

Thursday Comp

1.36x The Marvels T-14 (10 theaters) = $9.00m

 

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-12	797	9684	54	+9.4%
Fri	T-13	1172	22401	129	+7.9%

 

Thursday Comp

1.39x The Marvels T-12 (10 theaters) = $9.17m

Edited February 18 by jeffthehat

[ando]

Dune: Part Two

 

Toronto's Scotiabank theatre is really chugging along. 3301 admissions just for the IMAX screen over opening wknd. 

 

Thurs- 670     Fri- 829      Sat- 982     Sun- 820 

 

Feb 25th EA show now fully sold out (408 seats)

 

Even the Tuesday March 5th evening show is around 65% sold out. 

Edited February 18 by ando

[M37]

49 minutes ago, Derpity said:

These boring CBMs with mediocre reviews from directors you've never heard of aren't exactly perfect comps either.

Being reluctant to rely on Oppy as a comp isn't a value judgement on the quality of the respective films, but rather a forecast of when people already have or will buy tickets

 

49 minutes ago, Derpity said:

Barbie not sure, but Oppenheimer I think is a decent match, think there's a ton of overlap in the audience excited for both films, and they're likely going to be on similar critical footing. Oppenheimer obv had it's own thing with Barbenheimer but I don't think it's that far off, in an overall sense.

Of the major releases for which there is MTC1 data, Oppy had the 4th highest growth rate from T-14 through T-1, nearly tripling sales over that time period: Behind only Barbie, Mermaid (a naturally later buy family film) and a smidge below ATSV. [As a comparison point, GOTG3 just barely doubled over that same time frame]

Now that higher late growth was partly driven by sales being somewhat depressed during the 4th of July holiday week and playing catch-up, as well as the Barbenheimer phenomenon of course, while ASTV (and a few others, like notorious walk-up monster JWD) did pull ahead (% wise) on the final day. But also keep in mind Oppy was seat limited by opening against Barbie, holding down the final day sales, while Dune II should have no issue with capacity beyond PLF screens.

 

In other words, if you want to use for Oppy as a comp, might as well just argue for ATSV or Mermaid instead, because that's approximately the same trajectory; or even looking at Sacto, would also be similar to Scream VI and fairly close to John Wick 4 ... and none of those feel like applicable comps to me

Edited February 18 by M37

[iEnri]

Sure, Dune isnt going to have a late surge as big as Oppenheimer, but it doesn't have to. Just having a good late surge is enough to open to at least close to 90M. Movies having late surges are not that uncommon, it isnt an overly special thing.

[Bob Train]

Could FNAF be a good comp for Dune 2? Volume is similar, and it also had a weaker finish which is expected for Dune 2. Although maybe being a day and date release makes it a bad comp.

[iEnri]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

Could FNAF be a good comp for Dune 2? Volume is similar, and it also had a weaker finish which is expected for Dune 2. Although maybe being a day and date release makes it a bad comp.

FNAF had bad reviews and streaming release, so no. You should not expect dune to finish weaker.

[Speedorito]

Dune must be a really annoying film to track because you get people telling you you’re not tracking well because the numbers aren’t as big they want them to be yet (not talking about honest suggestions).

 

 Like, chill people. The film isn’t going to flop.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Could FNAF be a good comp for Dune 2? Volume is similar, and it also had a weaker finish which is expected for Dune 2. Although maybe being a day and date release makes it a bad comp.

 

Low ATP vs High ATP makes it very unsuitable, unfortunately.

 

Best bet, IMO, is something like Avatar 2.  Pretty high ATP + holiday buying patterns depressed the final days a bit.  Problem here is the length of pre-sales of the two films but that'll start sorting itself out soon-ish

[keysersoze123]

On 2/12/2024 at 12:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 3670/306190 53459.98 2009 shows +732

Friday - 3403/448696 48694.69 2811 shows

 

2.5 days later and I want to see how Friday sales are. Feels like Elemental to me.  

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040

Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002

 

5 days plus few hours later. Meh pace as expected. 

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040

Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002

 

5 days plus few hours later. Meh pace as expected. 

It’s a cartoon.

It’s 20 days until release.

 

Sales are ahead of what Elemental had T-13 and Trolls T-7

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It’s a cartoon.

It’s 20 days until release.

 

Sales are ahead of what Elemental had T-13 and Trolls T-7

This is a sequel to once a big opener. For example I expect Inside Out 2 to have good adult appeal and so should show that with its presales. 

 

That said I had low expectations and so this is expected. 

[keysersoze123]

On 2/16/2024 at 10:28 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 28064/55706 559158.60 182 shows +1010

Previews(T-13) - 57916/517312 1143427.70 2584 shows +3107

Friday - 54543/796148 1075662.81 4010 shows +4303

Saturday -  55582/837530 1050059.90 4223 shows +4388

 

Its day and few hours and so the pace has to be adjusted down for sure. Still its moving along as we approach the final stretch. Next week's reviews should hopefully take it to next level. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 28966/55455 575508.04 181 shows +902

Previews(T-12) - 59551/517356 1172478.59 2589 shows +1635

Friday - 57294/795628 1126218.40 4010 shows +2751

Saturday -  59050/838107 1111007.90 4227 shows +3468

 

Weird day but yesterday was around 28 hrs or so of data and it was boosted due to full day of reviews. 

Edited February 18 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

 

On 2/16/2024 at 11:45 PM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	174	22847	25187	2340	9.29%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	453
Total Seats Sold Today	125

 

T-13 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.20		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	19.90%		13.48m
Thor 4	34.34		265	6814		0/228	24786/31600	21.56%		16962	13.80%		9.96m
BP2	32.28		190	7250		2/296	29904/37154	19.51%		16800	13.93%		9.04m
AM3	47.85		123	4890		0/238	27904/32794	14.91%		10475	22.34%		8.37m
GOTG3	63.64		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		10750	21.77%		11.14m
TGM	54.22		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	20.39%		10.44m
JWD	86.44		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		2915	80.27%		15.56m
Ava 2	79.40		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	26.04%		13.50m
Wick 4	190.09		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	42.95%		16.92m
Fast X	212.92		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	56.77%		15.97m
TLM	144.09		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	7.15%		6561	35.67%		14.84m
Indy 5	177.68		59	1317		0/128	18924/20241	6.51%		4767	49.09%		12.79m
Dune	362.23		34	646		0/75	11185/11831	5.46%		2915	80.27%		18.47m
Oppy	195.00		68	1200		0/57	7688/8888	13.50%		10750	21.77%		20.48m
Bats Tue EA T-9	100.15		0	663		0/3	152/815	81.35%		743	87.62%		2.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:      642/8313  [7.72% sold]
Matinee:    85/2840  [2.99% | 3.63% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         664/814  [81.57% sold] [+13 tickets]
Thr:    1676/24373  [6.88% sold] [+112 tickets]
PLF:      1911/9825  [19.45% | 81.67% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

That is much more like it.  That is more or less what I was expecting to see last night, if somewhat less thanks to half-a-day post social media embargo lift.  Guess having a full day plus to percolate and get the word out was in fact a difference maker after all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Wasn't even that tilted to group sales/Esquire IMAX as even without counting the TrueIMAX location's sales the region still sold 100 tickets on the nose today.  Just decent sales up and down the region.

 

Another thing to note:  Thanks to the boost from social, the Sun EA showings have now passed The Batman's IMAX EA showings at the equivalent distance from release.  Okay by *one* ticket, but still notable.

 

Anywho, see how long this bounce lasts and what it'll settle down to before the review lift in a few days.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	174	22757	25187	2430	9.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

90

 

T-12 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	56.02		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	20.67%		13.68m
Thor 4	34.80		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	14.33%		10.09m
BP2	32.77		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	14.46%		9.17m
AM3	48.45		125	5015		0/238	27779/32794	15.29%		10475	23.20%		8.48m
GOTG3	64.42		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	22.60%		11.27m
TGM	52.68		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	21.18%		10.15m
JWD	86.42		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	22.16%		15.55m
Ava 2	77.54		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	27.04%		13.18m
Wick 4	189.25		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	44.60%		16.84m
Fast X	208.05		69	1168		0/178	26545/27713	4.21%		4122	58.95%		15.60m
TLM	140.14		110	1734		0/154	20987/22721	7.63%		6561	37.04%		14.43m
Indy 5	179.60		36	1353		0/128	18888/20241	6.68%		4767	50.98%		12.93m
Dune	346.65		55	701		0/75	11130/11831	5.93%		2915	83.36%		17.68m
Oppy	183.67		123	1323		0/57	7511/8834	14.98%		4621	52.59%		19.29m
Bats Tue EA T-8	101.96		-1	662		0/3	153/815	81.23%		743	89.37%		2.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       674/8313  [8.11% sold]
Matinee:    92/2840  [3.24% | 3.79% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          675/814  [82.92% sold] [+11 tickets]
Thr:    1755/24373  [7.20% sold] [+79 tickets]
PLF:     1973/9825  [20.08% | 81.19% of all tickets sold]

Edited February 19 by Porthos