The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

26 minutes ago, DInky said:

Really feels like Dune has a hard ceiling when it comes to interest from the general audience.

I have a friend who has already watched it, and he told me that Dune 2 (although stunning) carries on with the very same Dune 1 “problem” that may prevent it from being a mega popular movie like Barbie or Oppenheimer.

Edited February 24 by leoh

[emoviefan]

21 minutes ago, DInky said:

Really feels like Dune has a hard ceiling when it comes to interest from the general audience.

I know we all hoped and wanted this to break out big with the GA but that was probably never going to happen. Maybe the casuals will come on board next week in the final days but not holding my breath for that to happen. 

[Speedorito]

31 minutes ago, leoh said:

I have a friend who has already watched it, and he told me that Dune 2 (although stunning) carries on with the very same Dune 1 “problem” that may prevent it from being a mega popular movie like Barbie or Oppenheimer.

What problem is that?

[MysteryMovieMogul]

50 minutes ago, DInky said:

Really feels like Dune has a hard ceiling when it comes to interest from the general audience.

I'm been trying to say this!

 

This is literally the first showing at my local theater on Preview Thursday. It's a Dolby UDC theater at 4:00 pm.

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I'm been trying to say this!

 

This is literally the first showing at my local theater on Preview Thursday. It's a Dolby UDC theater at 4:00 pm.

What if I told you one screening of a movie on one day is *not* necessarily representative of a market with 380 million people?

[Speedorito]

5 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I'm been trying to say this!

 

This is literally the first showing at my local theater on Preview Thursday. It's a Dolby UDC theater at 4:00 pm.

I don’t know dude, that’s late afternoon. My local theater is half full on Thursday for a 3pm IMAX showing. It just varies.

 

The only thing I’ve noticed is that tickets skew very heavily towards IMAX screenings. They’re mostly full while regular showings are half full at best.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

What if I told you one screening of a movie on one day is *not* necessarily representative of a market with 380 million people?

All I'm trying to say is there's a ceiling! I could take a screenshot of every showing over the weekend, and none of them would be over half-full.

 

I'm not trying to claim the film will do poorly. It's going to do really well, but I'm just trying to ground some of y'all. At least Domestically, I think this film will trend more John Wick 4 than Oppenheimer. Both are still good, though.

[noobmaster69]

19 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

What problem is that?

Most ga think Denis's film very slow and boring.

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

All I'm trying to say is there's a ceiling! I could take a screenshot of every showing over the weekend, and none of them would be over half-full.

 

I'm not trying to claim the film will do poorly. It's going to do really well, but I'm just trying to ground some of y'all. At least Domestically, I think this film will trend more John Wick 4 than Oppenheimer. Both are still good, though.

John Wick and Oppenheimer opened literally 10 million apart.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

John Wick and Oppenheimer opened literally 10 million apart.

And, domestically, their runs ended $140 million apart, so what's your point?

[JustLurking]

10 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

And, domestically, their runs ended $140 million apart, so what's your point?

But all your examples are for thursday previews. Your arguments all till now have been trying to say this will fall short of Oppenheimer thu (even though final # will be more or less the same). I simply do not understand why posting a half empty thu preview show would be an indicator of worse legs (??), especially when we already know from all tracking that Dune PS is very spread out through the weekend.

 

FWIW: this isn't me saying you're necessarily wrong (I have long said Villeneuve's slow and contemplative style is too much for a portion of the GA), it's me saying your examples stink.

 

Also, just so we're clear, if you gave Oppenheimer all the shows and premiums that Dune2 has with much less competition, you would also see it have a lot more half-empty shows than it did. That's just what happens if a 10ishM previews film gets way more shows than necessary because theaters have nothing else to give them to.

Edited February 24 by JustLurking

[M37]

11 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

John Wick and Oppenheimer opened literally 10 million apart.

But one was summer, one was March. The fist full week was 35% higher for Oppy

 

27 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

What if I told you one screening of a movie on one day is *not* necessarily representative of a market with 380 million people?

It’s not, but that also doesn’t mean it’s not relevant data. This goes to the comment I made in the T-7 update about not having a good view of the mid and lower tier markets. Two films can have similar numbers in major metros and draw very differently outside of those, and a sci-fi epic sequel like Dune is one that could potentially struggle there, dragging down the total number 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

13 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

But all your examples are for thursday previews. Your arguments all till now have been trying to say this will fall short of Oppenheimer thu (even though final # will be more or less the same). I simply do not understand why posting a half empty thu preview show would be an indicator of worse legs (??), especially when we already know from all tracking that Dune PS is very spread out through the weekend.

 

FWIW: this isn't me saying you're necessarily wrong (I have long said Villeneuve's slow and contemplative style is too much for a portion of the GA), it's me saying your examples stink.

Okay, fine, the same time (EDIT: Not same time as Thursday Previews) in the same theaters on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (7:00 pm; Dolby UDC):

 

EDIT: Also, by the looks of it, 6 seats are blocked off (because they're broken) and unable to buy tickets for.

Edited February 24 by MysteryMovieMogul

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Okay, fine, the same time (EDIT: Not same time as Thursday Previews) in the same theaters on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (7:00 pm; Dolby UDC):

Look, I added the edit just because I knew you were going to post this. I'll repeat it here:

 

Also, just so we're clear, if you gave Oppenheimer all the shows and premiums that Dune2 has with much less competition, you would also see it have a lot more half-empty shows than it did. That's just what happens if a 10ishM previews film gets way more shows than necessary because theaters have nothing else to give them to.

 

I don't understand what you're doing here. If Oppenheimer has to give most of its shows including premiums with Dolby to Barbie, no shit it will fill up more in percentage. Start slashing all the showtimes Dune doesn't need for a 70-80M OW and suddenly its shows look a lot more full.

 

If Oppenheimer has shows to open to 90M max and opens to 80, it will look more full than if it has shows to open to like 180M and opens to 80. (these numbers are made up, I'm just trying to get my point across here)

 

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

But one was summer, one was March. The fist full week was 35% higher for Oppy

Of course, and I don't even disagree with the overall point that Dune2 won't have Oppenheimer's legs. What I'm trying to say is just that posting half-empty OW shows while screeching about legs is a pointless endeavor.

[PrinceRico]

Did the general audience even like the first Dune? Seems like it was just fans raving about and if so there is no reason to think they would be on board for part 2.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Of course, and I don't even disagree with the overall point that Dune2 won't have Oppenheimer's legs. What I'm trying to say is just that posting half-empty OW shows while screeching about legs is a pointless endeavor.

Dune is a known quantity. It had a Part 1 that was on streaming from day one, even though you could also see the film in theaters.

 

Is there a chance is breaks out like another sequel, Across the Spider-Verse? Yeah, it's possible, but that opened at $120 million. It also was a colorful, imaginative, fun, all ages Spider-Man film.

 

I'd love to see Dune Part 2 pull something miraculous in such a dead year, though.

 

 

[misterpepp]

Love Lies Bleeding tix on sale March 1.

 

Remake of Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead opens April 12, tickets on sale Feb 27.

[JustLurking]

Just now, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Dune is a known quantity. It had a Part 1 that was on streaming from day one, even though you could also see the film in theaters.

 

Is there a chance is breaks out like another sequel, Across the Spider-Verse? Yeah, it's possible, but that opened at $120 million. It also was a colorful, imaginative, fun, all ages Spider-Man film.

 

I'd love to see Dune Part 2 pull something miraculous in such a dead year, though.

 

 

Alright, fine, keep moving the goalpost. As long as you stop clogging the thread with those pointless half-empty pics I'll just consider it a win and move on.

[ThomasNicole]

I don’t know, i really don’t see much difference at current data to change any predictions tbh. 
 

It would need to kinda crumble to be under 70M at this point and need to kinda explode to get +90 as well. 
 

Both feels unlikely imo so previews seems to be heading exactly as expected (10-ish THU + EA) with very solid presales across the weekend which shows it won’t be super frontloaded, maybe 7.5-7.75 multiplier.
 

I think 80M is still the most likely outcome, which is pretty much what most people are thinking since early days of data. It’s just not turning into a billionaire franchise, neither seems to be staying niche.
 

 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 37886/55706 741067.76 182 shows +2623

Previews(T-7) - 73605/549587 1431062.97 2772 shows +3726

Friday - 76594/802204 1479210.24 4042 shows +5170

Saturday - 78717/844114 1454411.87 4255 shows +5072

 

Just Ok after the day with review boost. Sunday early shows are definitely taking away some of the pace from previews. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 40690/55706 792917.22 182 shows +2804

Previews(T-6) - 76692/551793 1487194.52 2787 shows +3087

Friday - 82183/804949 1579019.53 4060 shows +5589

Saturday - 84191/845099 1548432.15 +5474 

 

Sunday shows are definitely taking away thursday sales for now. Anyway Its looking at around 50K tickets/~950K at MTC1 for Sunday. That should be around half of rest of US as its also playing in many museum imax along with multiplexes. Including Canada based on Charlie's numbers I would say 2m early shows.