The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Now thinking 500K is possible for early shows. @katnisscinnaplex do you have show count for tomorrow?

I think all the shows are MTC 1. Only 20 shows non MTC1 in last check.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think all the shows are MTC 1. Only 20 shows non MTC1 in last check.

 

re: Civil War EA

 

FWIW playing at MTC3, as I have exactly one locally.

Edited April 8 by Porthos

[Boxofficerules]

BOM have Sting down as a wide release this weekend, is that true? I thought it was limited.

[el sid]

4 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

BOM have Sting down as a wide release this weekend, is that true? I thought it was limited.

I think it's a limited release. It has (so far) no showtimes e.g. in the AMCs Fresh Meadows or Universal Cinema but e.g. in the AMC Burbank 16.

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

BOM have Sting down as a wide release this weekend, is that true? I thought it was limited.

 

13 minutes ago, el sid said:

I think it's a limited release. It has (so far) no showtimes e.g. in the AMCs Fresh Meadows or Universal Cinema but e.g. in the AMC Burbank 16.

It was too small to pick up in my showtime report on Friday (I think it was around 300).  Just checked again and there are close to 400 theaters listed now.  Only four tickets sold in the regions I track so expectations are pretty low here.

[el sid]

Because the "weak" April got so much talking I looked at the presales of Civil War and The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare on Friday = 3 days ago. I decided to count the Friday because the Thursday presales could be less informative due to the EA shows. And I was surprised how different they look:

 

Warfare had for Friday, April 19 = with 14 days left combined only 30 sold tickets in 6 theaters (no showtimes in the AMC Lakeline in Texas). Ok, it's still early.

 

Whereas Civil War had also for Friday, April 12 = with 7 days left in the same 6 theaters 825 sold tickets combined.

Comp: That's on par with e.g. Monkey Man on its Wednesday for Friday = 5 days left for Civil War to increase the margin.

So a very good number for Civil War, especially for Friday. But after the disappointment which Monkey Man was to me I will stay way more careful and conservative this week. Civil War could overperform (I saw that other reports here look quite promising too) but it could also be the next presales hit with sparse walk-ups. 

 

Still, quite interesting. Will post new numbers later today.

Edited April 8 by el sid

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-4	Jax	6	40	13	102	6,947	1.47%
		Phx	6	20	9	84	4,163	2.02%
		Ral	8	19	2	67	2,513	2.67%
	Total		20	79	24	253	13,623	1.86%
Suga	T-3	Jax	3	7	2	149	1,574	9.47%
		Phx	4	5	3	188	992	18.95%
		Ral	5	7	0	149	1,127	13.22%
	Total		12	19	5	486	3,693	13.16%

 

Civil War T-4 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .203x (1.33m)

 - Elvis - missed

 - Equalizer 3 - .788x (3m)

 - Free Guy - .91x (2.08m)

 - M:I 7 - .162x (1.43m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.35x (4.56m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 3m

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-3 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.171x (1.09m)

 - One Piece - .799x (1.39m)

 - Left Behind - 1.855x (1.34m)

 - Dragon Ball - .432x (1.9m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .307x (1.53m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-3	Jax	6	40	14	116	6,947	1.67%
		Phx	6	20	20	104	4,163	2.50%
		Ral	8	19	11	78	2,513	3.10%
	Total		20	79	45	298	13,623	2.19%
Sting	T-3	Jax	4	5	3	3	313	0.96%
		Phx	4	5	1	1	365	0.27%
		Ral	2	3	0	0	166	0.00%
	Total		10	13	4	4	844	0.47%
Suga	T-2	Jax	3	7	7	156	1,574	9.91%
		Phx	4	5	1	189	992	19.05%
		Ral	5	6	0	149	846	17.61%
	Total		12	18	8	494	3,412	14.48%

 

Civil War T-3 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - Elvis - missed

 - Equalizer 3 - .799x (3.04m)

 - Free Guy - .977x (2.23m)

 - M:I 7 - .165x (1.46m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.34x (4.53m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.15m

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-2 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.105x (1.03m)

 - One Piece - .709x (1.23m)

 - Left Behind - 1.563x (1.13m)

 - Dragon Ball - .401x (1.77m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .264x (1.31m)

 

No comps small enough for Sting

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-11	Jax	5	16	3	8	2,149	0.37%
		Phx	6	15	0	7	2,900	0.24%
		Ral	6	13	1	11	1,651	0.67%
	Total		17	44	4	26	6,700	0.39%
Spy x Family	T-11	Jax	5	18	3	58	1,938	2.99%
		Phx	6	17	1	49	3,774	1.30%
		Ral	7	18	8	44	1,616	2.72%
	Total		18	53	12	151	7,328	2.06%
Ungentlemanly	T-11	Jax	5	11	0	6	1,214	0.49%
		Phx	6	11	0	12	1,268	0.95%
		Ral	6	9	2	7	1,102	0.64%
	Total		17	31	2	25	3,584	0.70%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-6	Jax	2	3	3	95	320	29.69%
		Phx	4	5	3	57	602	9.47%
		Ral	4	4	11	96	467	20.56%
	Total		10	12	17	248	1,389	17.85%

 

Spy x Family T-11 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .221x (974k)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .182x (907k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-6 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - 1.272x (1.48m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .207x (799k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .415x (457k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .589x (580k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .582x (1.02m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.03m

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-11 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .862x (1.05m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .214x (666k)

 - Turtles - .113x (383k)

 

Abigail T-11 comps

 - Talk to Me - 1x (1.245m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .329x (1.65m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-10	Jax	5	17	0	8	2,346	0.34%
		Phx	6	15	0	7	2,900	0.24%
		Ral	7	15	0	11	1,887	0.58%
	Total		18	47	0	26	7,133	0.36%
Spy x Family	T-10	Jax	5	18	2	60	1,938	3.10%
		Phx	6	17	7	56	3,774	1.48%
		Ral	8	22	6	50	2,036	2.46%
	Total		19	57	15	166	7,748	2.14%
Ungentlemanly	T-10	Jax	5	12	1	7	1,274	0.55%
		Phx	6	11	3	15	1,268	1.18%
		Ral	7	10	0	7	1,150	0.61%
	Total		18	33	4	29	3,692	0.79%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	3	4	99	320	30.94%
		Phx	4	5	5	62	602	10.30%
		Ral	4	4	4	100	467	21.41%
	Total		10	12	13	261	1,389	18.79%

 

Spy x Family T-10 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .227x (999k)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .184x (917k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-5 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .194x (749k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .426x (468k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .564x (555k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .557x (974k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .546x (819k)

 

Size adjusted average - 696k

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-10 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .806x (980k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .212x (660k)

 - Turtles - .122x (413k)

 

Abigail T-10 comps

 - Talk to Me - .897x (1.12m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .31x (1.55m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

18 hours ago, joselowe said:

Anyone have tracking for Challengers?

 

it seems like tickets are on sale in a few cities near me

 

https://tickets.fandango.com/mobileexpress/seatselection?row_count=445689221&tid=AAXCM&a=11584&mid=228201&chainCode=REGL&sdate=2024-04-25+19%3A15&wssaffid=11584_GoogleOneBox(DeskandMobile)&wssac=90&route=map-seat-map
 

https://tickets.fandango.com/mobileexpress/seatselection?row_count=446495903&tid=AANHG&a=11584&mid=228201&chainCode=REGL&sdate=2024-04-25+19%3A10&wssaffid=11584_GoogleOneBox(DeskandMobile)&wssac=90&route=map-seat-map

 

https://tickets.fandango.com/mobileexpress/seatselection?row_count=446472459&tid=AAFTL&a=11584&mid=228201&chainCode=REGL&sdate=2024-04-25 17%3A45&wssaffid=11584_GoogleOneBox(DeskandMobile)&wssac=90

I'm not sure if someone jumped the gun or what happened, but I don't think these should be available yet.   Very few theaters have even posted showtimes yet and @misterpepp has 4/12 as sales start date.  Five theaters in the regions I track have opened showtimes but no tickets sold yet. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 8104/15392 186110.96 52 shows

Previews(T-4) - 21758/350298 430581.70 1758 shows +2158

Friday - 17096/575346 331903.44 2804 shows +2075

 

Now thinking 500K is possible for early shows. @katnisscinnaplex do you have show count for tomorrow?

 

Preview sales have picked up today. Let us see how final 4 days goes.  

 

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think all the shows are MTC 1. Only 20 shows non MTC1 in last check.

 

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

re: Civil War EA

 

FWIW playing at MTC3, as I have exactly one locally.

 

On 4/5/2024 at 11:55 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Civil War EA Track

TC - 54

Shows - 57

MTC1 - 5,829/11,026  34 shows  $139,734

MTC2 - 96/674  2 shows  $1,820

MTC3 - 784/3,020  10 shows  $17,421

Other - 975/3,276  8 shows  $19,411

 

Total - 7,694/17,996  $178,386

Civil War EA Track

TC - 54

Shows - 62

 

MTC1 - 7,739/12,469  42 shows  $183,639

MTC2 - 130/674  2 shows  $2,484

MTC3 - 1,244/3,020  10 shows  $27,532

Other - 1,315/3,276  8 shows  $26,108

 

Total - 10,428/19,439  $239,764

 

Using full price adult ticket prices for all tickets

[Relevation]

Looks like standard tickets are now on sale for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

[kayumanggi]

 

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Sight T-46: 12.48%

Borderlands T-123: 31.36%

Blink Twice T-137: 12.06%

The Wild Robot T-165: 17.21%

 

Civil War T-4: 32.72% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 26% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-32: 60.6% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

 

Abigail T-11: 30.03% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-11: 20.44% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Back to Black T-39: 25% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 15% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

IF T-39: 35.21% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 81% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 13% chance of 40M

Animation/Family Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M

[ChipDerby]

That Planet of the Apes Quorum number is wild.

[abracadabra1998]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Civil War T-3 adjusted comps

 

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - Elvis - missed

 - Equalizer 3 - .799x (3.04m)

 - Free Guy - .977x (2.23m)

 - M:I 7 - .165x (1.46m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.34x (4.53m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.15m

With these numbers and my Minne ones I feel this is showing some real strength in the so called Middle America that gets thrown around here sometimes. A good MTC1 ratio as well in my last update, at this point I’m feeling somewhat optimistic for a previews number at least around the 2.5 range (not even counting EA)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/7/2024 at 6:49 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
416	2004	83395	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.471x) of Ghostbusters $2.21M  

(0.974x) of Argylle $1.66M

Comps average: $1.94M 

 

Not much movement over these past few days. Still looks like O/U $2M

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
448	2223	89753	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

219

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

32

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.470x) of Ghostbusters $2.21M  

(0.979x) of Argylle $1.66M

(1.778x) of Monkey Man $2.49M

Comps average: $2.12M 

 

$2.5M perhaps by T-0

[el sid]

I see that almost nobody cares today so I'll post the rest tomorrow 😉.

 

Ungentlemanly Warfare had today 56 sold tickets today for Friday  = 11 days to go. So an improvement but still a pretty poor number and I will wait a few days till the next count.

Comps (not easy to find good comps IMO; both films counted for Friday): Amsterdam (550k from previews/2.05 true Friday/6.5M OW) had on Monday of its release week 121 sold tickets.

Operation Fortune (220k/780k true Friday/3.1M OW) had 98 sold tickets on Wednesday of its release week.

Seems meager for Warfare but that also could change quickly.

Edited April 8 by el sid

[Cmasterclay]

Quorum is really a choose your own adventure tool - I find it helpful, it's better for comparing among similar films than for comparing anything with remote name value to even the best marketed original, because any established IP always overindexes there bigly.

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Civil War (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	81	131	441	14403	3.06
Monday April 8 EA: 1 theater	1	22	143	212	67.45
TOTALS:	82	153	584	14615	4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		388	111	87.98
MTC1:		262	74	59.41
Alamo:		74	21	16.78
Other chains:		105	36	23.81

 

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

2.06x Monkey Man: $2.89 Million 

1.04x Napoleon (TUE): $3.13 Million (17 theaters)

1.75x The Creator (THU): $2.36 Million (17 theaters)

0.34x MI7 (TUE): $2.35 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.68 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.12x Barbie EA: $135k

Dune Part 2 EA: Missed

 

Updating daily from now on, I'll get a T-1 hour update for its EA as well

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Civil War (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	90	83	524	15596	3.36

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		459	71	87.6
MTC1:		316	54	60.31
Alamo:		81	7	15.46
Other chains:		127	22	24.24

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (Thursday only:

1.87x Monkey Man: $2.62 Million

4.02x Iron Claw: $2.7 Million (17 theaters)

Napoleon (TUE): Missed

1.69x The Creator (THU): $2.47 Million (17 theaters)

0.35x MI7 (TUE): $2.35 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.54 Million

 

Missed out on the T-1 hour EA sadly but it seems like others are tracking that pretty well

 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 8104/15392 186110.96 52 shows

Previews(T-4) - 21758/350298 430581.70 1758 shows +2158

Friday - 17096/575346 331903.44 2804 shows +2075

 

Now thinking 500K is possible for early shows. @katnisscinnaplex do you have show count for tomorrow?

 

Preview sales have picked up today. Let us see how final 4 days goes.  

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows Final - 9304/15392 211793.46 52 shows 

Previews(T-3) - 25368/372819 497887.18 1918 shows +3610

Friday - 20349/622796 391428.55 3081 shows +3253 

 

Early shows looks like ~325K based on show count posted by @katnisscinnaplex.

 

Definite growth again for previews. Also this is playing better at most places than say Monkey Man last week. So I am going to bump up thursday alone at 2.5m+ at this point.