The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

Monkey Man, counted today for today, had 1.111 sold tickets (with showtimes in 7 theaters).

Up 19% since yesterday (so it did beat Argylle by 1% ).

 

Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): Uncharted had 1.294 sold tickets = 3.2M.

Argylle had 997 = 1.9M.

Expendables 4 had 276 = 3M.

The Creator had 1.120 = 1.6M.

Silent Night had 150 = 1.85M.

BT had 1.508 = 3.4M.

And Dungeons & Dragons had 1.265 sold tickets = 3.6M.

Average: 2.65M. 

A pretty wide range (1.6M - 3.6M). But because I doubt that MM will have worse walk-ups than Argylle or Silent Night I go with 2M+ from previews. And who knows, maybe they will surprise us.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Monkey Man

Previews - 100/3078

Fri - 116/6163

 

Previews comps

 - Ambulance - 2.778x (1.94m)

 - Beast - 1.266x (1.17m)

 - Bullet Train - .217x (727k)

 

First Omen

Previews - 109/2802

Friday - 76/6665

 

Previews comps

 - Smile - .686x (1.17m)

 - Northman - .472x (637k)

 - M3GAN - .251x (689k)

[abracadabra1998]

17 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	70	94	406	7709	5.27

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		215	27	52.96
MTC1:		276	47	67.98
Alamo:		33	8	8.13
Other chains:		97	39	23.89

 

Comps:

1.07x Argylle: $1.83 Million (17 theaters)

2.13x The Iron Claw: $1.43 Million (17 theaters)

0.44x Napoleon (TUE): $1.32 Million (17 theaters)

0.18x MI7 (TUE): $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.46 Million

 

Sadly I did not track The Creator after T-2, so I slotted in MI7 as a comp there. Taking into account the Tuesday discounts I would say this is leaning towards 1.6-1.9 Million previews, but I will give my final prediction tomorrow since I'll actually be able to do a T-0 track for once, yay!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-1 hour):

Day: T-1 hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	70	146	552	7709	7.16

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		266	51	48.19
MTC1:		337	61	61.05
Alamo:		41	8	7.43
Other chains:		174	77	31.52

 

Comps:

0.91x Argylle: $1.54 Million (17 theaters)

0.35x KOFM: $920k (17 theaters)

0.66x Blue Beetle: $2.19 Million (17 theaters)

0.16x MI7 (TUE): $1.13 Million (17 theaters)

0.2x Indy 5: $1.42 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.44 Million

 

My T-0 comps aren't great for this, but the one that mattered most (Argylle) petered off pretty badly from yesterday to today. MI7 is perennially tainted by the Tuesday discount so I'll go with a final prediction of $1.5 Million, +/- 0.2

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-0	Jax	5	15	13	26	1,815	1.43%
		Phx	6	13	11	45	1,850	2.43%
		Ral	8	16	19	36	1,702	2.12%
	Total		19	44	43	107	5,367	1.99%
Monkey Man	T-0	Jax	6	25	26	91	3,274	2.78%
		Phx	6	19	66	183	2,035	8.99%
		Ral	8	23	37	114	2,424	4.70%
	Total		20	67	129	388	7,733	5.02%

 

Monkey Man T-0 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.459x (1.64m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .654x (1.31m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .48x (1.49m)

 - Strays - 1.702x (1.4m)

 - Black Phone - .574x (1.53m)

 - Bullet Train - .372x (1.045m)

 - Green Knight - 1.093x (869k)

 - Beast - 1.68x (1.59m)

 - 65 - 1.087x (1.33m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.37m

Growth model forecast - 1.16m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Monkey Man	147.13%	37.58%	25.51%	49.81%
Violent Night	133.33%	-	-	40.00%
Cocaine Bear	144.03%	32.92%	9.82%	41.87%
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%
Strays	121.36%	32.04%	20.00%	49.02%
Black Phone	-	-	26.67%	57.58%
Bullet Train	140.55%	26.50%	24.45%	40.89%
The Green Knight	308.05%	42.53%	54.00%	53.02%
Beast	192.41%	37.97%	46.94%	39.16%
65	210.43%	40.00%	-	63.01%

 

I removed EA from comps and switched to previews only.  +49.8% is right in line with comps.  I think this will likely be reported as 1.5m, but may come up short.  

 

First Omen T-0 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .279x (348k)

 - Last Voyage - .421x (316k)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - .626x (640k)

 - Forever Purge - .482x (679k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .433x (551k)

 - Immaculate - 1.019x (560k)

 - Antlers - .907x (356k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 507k

Growth model forecast - 390k

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
First Omen	224.24%	33.33%	-	67.19%
Talk to Me	275.49%	47.06%	42.59%	55.69%
Last Voyage	146.60%	46.60%	52.73%	46.82%
Dont Breathe 2	470.00%	40.00%	44.44%	96.55%
The Forever Purge	241.54%	78.46%	-	64.44%
Escape Room 2	233.78%	60.81%	51.72%	64.67%
Immaculate	238.71%	77.42%	-	50.00%
Antlers	195.00%	-	-	61.64%

 

Pretty good day yesterday to make up for veryy slow start.  Daily and 3-day are tracking close to Forever Purge and Escape Room 2 which are among the higher end of the range.  I think there's still hope for 700k, but it'll need a great day today.  For now I think 600k is a safer bet.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	1-Hr	Jax	5	15	50	76	1,815	4.19%
		Phx	6	13	29	74	1,850	4.00%
		Ral	8	16	33	69	1,702	4.05%
	Total		19	44	112	219	5,367	4.08%
Monkey Man	1-Hr	Jax	6	25	65	156	3,274	4.76%
		Phx	6	19	43	226	2,035	11.11%
		Ral	8	23	73	187	2,424	7.71%
	Total		20	67	181	569	7,733	7.36%

 

Monkey Man T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.345x (1.51m)

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Equalizer 3 - .372x (1.16m)

 - Strays - 1.63x (1.345m)

 - Black Phone - .494x (1.316m)

 - Bullet Train - .383x (1.076m)

 - Green Knight - 1.022x (812k)

 - Beast - 1.44x (1.37m)

 - 65 - 1.036x (1.27m)

All thriller - 1.26m

All R movies - 1.3m

All movies - 1.18m

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.25m

Growth model forecast - 1.28m

 

I think 1.3m is a safe bet.  Probably will get reported at 1.5m or 2m even though

 

First Omen T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .341x (424k)

 - Last Voyage - missed

 - Don't Breathe 2 - .582x (596k)

 - Forever Purge - .545x (768k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .482x (614k)

 - Immaculate - 1.197x (658k)

 - Antlers - 1.153x (452k)

All horror - 550k

All R-rated horror - 535k

All R movies - 502k

All movies - 456k

 

Size adjusted comps - 564k

Growth model forecast - 529k

 

A lot of the adjusted comps are coming in higher than the overall.  Gonna go with the averages though and take 550k for previews.

[DAJK]

Weirdly both openers are not having previews at a couple locations I usually track, and instead start shows tomorrow.

 

At the theaters that ARE playing them, Omen is a non-starter for sure. Monkey Man however is having some pretty great walkups, after some solid presales. If it weren’t for my better judgement saying that this is just an outlier, I’d be thinking this could hit 3-3.5M previews.

[Eric Furiosa]

Quorum Updates

Unsung Hero T-22: 18.56%

The Fall Guy T-29: 37.9%

Furiosa T-50: 27.54%

The Garfield Movie T-50: 42.78%

The Watchers T-71: 26.97%

Cuckoo T-127: 16.33%

 

The First Omen T-1: 41.00% Awareness

Final Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 46% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M

 

Monkey Man T-1: 37.5% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

 

Civil War T-8: 31.63% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-64: 47.67% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 35% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M, 20% chance of 90M, 15% chance of 100M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 100M

[Flopped]

What are people thinking for Omen this weekend? 

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/31/2024 at 11:09 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-32):

Day: T-32, T-31	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	N/A	85	13674	0.62
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	N/A	81	5090	1.59
TOTALS:	98	N/A	166	18764	0.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		73	N/A	85.88
MTC1:		70	N/A	82.35
Alamo:		10	N/A	11.76
Other chains:		5	N/A	5.88

 

Comps:

0.15x Oppy: $1.57 Million (12 theaters)

 

I hope I don't have to outline the myriad of reasons that Oppy is a terrible comp, it's just the only one I have at the moment.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-27	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	4	89	13674	0.65
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	10	91	5090	1.79
TOTALS:	98	14	180	18764	0.96

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		77	4	86.52
MTC1:		70	0	78.65
Alamo:		13	3	14.61
Other chains:		6	1	6.74

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps:

0.14x Oppy: $1.5 Million (12 theaters)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-35):

Day: T-35, T-34	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 7 theaters	21	11	49	4568	1.07
Wednesday May 8 EA: 18 theaters	22	23	60	5010	1.2
TOTALS:	43	34	109	9578	1.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		49	13	100
MTC1:		43	7	87.76
Alamo:		6	4	12.24
Other chains:		0	0	0

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Still a bunch of blocked off showtimes for Thursday previews, super weird release

 

Comps:

0.14x Oppy: $1.52 Million (12 theaters)

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/31/2024 at 11:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Civil War (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-8	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	81	N/A	200	14403	1.39
Monday April 8 EA: 1 theater	1	N/A	97	212	45.75
TOTALS:	82	N/A	297	14615	2.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		187	N/A	93.5
MTC1:		116	N/A	58
Alamo:		46	N/A	23
Other chains:		38	N/A	19

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (including EA at this point):

2.16x Monkey Man: ?? (17 theaters)

1.7x The Creator: $2.71 Million (17 theaters)

0.74x KoFM: $1.93 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.32 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Civil War (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	81	110	310	14403	2.15
Monday April 8 EA: 1 theater	1	24	121	212	57.08
TOTALS:	82	134	431	14615	2.95

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		277	90	89.35
MTC1:		188	72	60.65
Alamo:		53	7	17.1
Other chains:		69	31	22.26

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

Monkey Man: Missed 

1.08x Napoleon (TUE): $3.24 Million (17 theaters)

1.4x The Creator: $2.24 Million (17 theaters)

0.35x MI7 (TUE): $2.46 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.65 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.11x Barbie EA: $120k

0.13x Dune Part 2 EA: $255k

 

Went with EA comps that had limited walk-ups due to capacity, but with how limited this is those comps aren't super useful. Thursday is just chugging along, this is doing pretty well at this point!

Edited April 5 by abracadabra1998

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-27	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	4	89	13674	0.65
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	10	91	5090	1.79
TOTALS:	98	14	180	18764	0.96

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		77	4	86.52
MTC1:		70	0	78.65
Alamo:		13	3	14.61
Other chains:		6	1	6.74

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps:

0.14x Oppy: $1.5 Million (12 theaters)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-35):

Day: T-35, T-34	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 7 theaters	21	11	49	4568	1.07
Wednesday May 8 EA: 18 theaters	22	23	60	5010	1.2
TOTALS:	43	34	109	9578	1.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		49	13	100
MTC1:		43	7	87.76
Alamo:		6	4	12.24
Other chains:		0	0	0

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Still a bunch of blocked off showtimes for Thursday previews, super weird release

 

Comps:

0.14x Oppy: $1.52 Million (12 theaters)

Oppenheimer does not seem like a good comp for either one of these but not that many good comps for movies 4 and 5 weeks out I assume. 

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-9	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	34	9	9	3631	0.25
Saturday April 13 EA: 17 theaters	17	180	180	1880	9.57
TOTALS:	51	189	189	5511	3.43

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2	2	22.22
MTC1:		7	7	77.78
Alamo:		1	1	11.11
Other chains:		1	1	11.11

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Thursday comp:

0.25x Trolls: $325k

 

EA Comp:

0.78x Trolls Sat EA: $915k

 

No, this is NOT a joke, there are too many similarities with Trolls Band Together (Saturday EA, EA exploding while Thursday sells barely anything) for me to not use it as a comp. After the EA I will switch to genre comps because I get this is not a family flick, but for now this will be what I use to gauge the EA

 

Abigail (T-14, Day 1):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	43	13	13	5118	0.25

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		5	5	38.46
Alamo:		6	6	46.15
Other chains:		2	2	15.38

 

Day 1 Comps:

1.1x Imaginary: $800k

0.79x Lisa Frankenstein: $550k

0.35x Thanksgiving: $355k

 

We shall see where it goes from here

[abracadabra1998]

8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Oppenheimer does not seem like a good comp for either one of these but not that many good comps for movies 4 and 5 weeks out I assume. 

 

Yep, I'm riding out Oppy until ~ T-21 and then I will switch it out for better comps

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 22232/196626 394375.72 1416 shows +3823 

Friday - 19324/436224 332178.78 3035 shows +4115

 

Dont thing its going to do enough to hit 2m previews now. Probably around 1.5-1.7m previews. but weekend has tons more shows and so it should still hit low teens OW. 

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews Final - 35377/197065 597056.59 1420 shows +13145

Friday - 26879/438943 452438.41 3060 shows +7555

 

Its final day walkups were inline with expectations. Not great but its not terrible either. I am thinking 1.7m previews with around 35% MTC1 ratio. Friday PS growth is just ok but it should do low teens OW I think. I am expecting stronger walkups over the weekend.  

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews Final - 35377/197065 597056.59 1420 shows +13145

Friday - 26879/438943 452438.41 3060 shows +7555

 

Its final day walkups were inline with expectations. Not great but its not terrible either. I am thinking 1.7m previews with around 35% MTC1 ratio. Friday PS growth is just ok but it should do low teens OW I think. I am expecting stronger walkups over the weekend.  

Wonder if it could be 40%.

[charlie Jatinder]

Monkey Man MiniTC Final

 

Previews - 1393/14702 (70 showings) $16K

 

Very low numbers and walkups were meh. Was thinking 2K was possible but fell way under.

Would normally mean $800K ish previews but since MTC1 is much better, should be better than that. I will guess MTC2 is around $175-200K from MiniTC2 numbers, coupled with MTC1 that shall give $1.5M ish.

[charlie Jatinder]

First Omen MiniTC2 Final

 

Previews - 1063/10331 (61 showings) $13K

 

Also low. Would normally mean $650-700K previews.

[keysersoze123]

On 4/3/2024 at 9:52 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 4389/9257 99053.61 29 shows

Previews(T-8) - 15140/335883 305793.02 1655 shows +1261

Friday - 11010/556174 217388.84 2674 shows +1062

 

 

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 4646/9257 104485.54 29 shows 

Previews(T-7) - 16509/335010 331715.83 1652 shows +1369

Friday - 12257/571757 241054.31 2779 shows +1247

 

Still no signs of acceleration.

[keysersoze123]

52 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wonder if it could be 40%.

I dont think so. smaller TC dont matter for these movies. They are driven by large urban markets. I expect larger MTC to do well for this movie. 

[vafrow]

To @DAJK @Tinaleraor any other Canadian trackers, is anyone else having issues with seat previews in Cineplex? It's happening for me mainly for early access shows for Fall Guy and POTA. But generally, things have been glitchy.

 

I thought it was just temporary issues that would resolve, but it's been going on for a few days now. I'm not sure if it's my end or not.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-7	Jax	6	34	17	47	6,236	0.75%
		Phx	6	20	5	58	4,163	1.39%
		Ral	8	19	13	58	2,513	2.31%
	Total		20	73	35	163	12,912	1.26%
Suga	T-6	Jax	3	7	2	136	1,574	8.64%
		Phx	4	5	1	183	992	18.45%
		Ral	5	6	6	146	846	17.26%
	Total		12	18	9	465	3,412	13.63%

 

Civil War T-7 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .185x (1.46m)

 - Elvis - .467x (1.81m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .738x (2.8m)

 - Free Guy - 1.02x (2.33m)

 - M:I 7 - .148x (1.53m)

 - Meg 2 - 2.3x (7.79m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-6 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - missed

 - One Piece - .919x (1.6m)

 - Left Behind - 2.422x (1.74m)

 - Dragon Ball - .488x (2.15m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .388x (1.93m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-6	Jax	6	40	17	64	6,947	0.92%
		Phx	6	20	12	70	4,163	1.68%
		Ral	8	19	2	60	2,513	2.39%
	Total		20	79	31	194	13,623	1.42%
Suga	T-5	Jax	3	7	10	146	1,574	9.28%
		Phx	4	5	2	185	992	18.65%
		Ral	5	7	2	148	1,127	13.13%
	Total		12	19	14	479	3,693	12.97%

 

Civil War T-6 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - Elvis - .534x (2.066m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .77x (2.93m)

 - Free Guy - .956x (2.18m)

 - M:I 7 - .162x (1.43m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.85x (6.27m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .819x (2.97m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-5 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.195x (1.11m)

 - One Piece - .874x (1.52m)

 - Left Behind - missed

 - Dragon Ball - .488x (2.15m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - missed