The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

A Quiet Place: Day One (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 70/1,672 (4.2% sold) [+10]

3pm XD Fan Event showing: 17/238 (7.1% sold)

3 IMAX showings: 21/1,164 

8 2D showings: 32/737 

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.43 mil

Furiosa: $3.66 mil

Average: $4.05 mil

 

Friday: 107/3,474 (3.1% sold) [+48]

5 IMAX showings: 41/1,940 

16 2D showings: 66/1,534 (4.3% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes: $13.43 mil

Furiosa: $8.63 mil

Average: $11.03 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 177/5,146 (3.4% sold) [+58]

 

Comp:

Apes: $17.93 mil

Furiosa: $12.06 mil

Average: $15 mil

A Quiet Place: Day One (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 96/1,672 (5.7% sold) [+26]

3pm XD Fan Event showing: 17/238

3 IMAX showings: 21/1,164 

8 2D showings: 58/737 

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.75 mil

Furiosa: $3.78 mil

Average: $4.27 mil

 

Friday: 133/3,474 (3.8% sold) [+26]

5 IMAX showings: 45/1,940 

16 2D showings: 88/1,534 

 

Comps:

Apes: $12.25 mil

Furiosa: $9.12 mil

Average: $10.69 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 229/5,146 (4.5% sold) [+52]

 

Comps:

Apes: $17.44 mil

Furiosa: $12.55 mil

Average: $15 mil

 

 

Mediocre hold for Friday, but I suppose that doesn't really mean much right now. Thursday comps trending upward is good to see. Will report preview numbers at 2 pm CST tomorrow.

[Inceptionzq]

A Quiet Place Day One Denver Thursday

1675/12574 in 9 theaters

 

Adjusted FNAF T-1: 6.42M

Adjusted Dune Part 2 T-1: 3.81M

Adjusted Across the Spider-Verse T-1: 4.73M

Adjusted Guardians 3 T-1: 4.79M

 

Don't have good comps for this, but it is what it is

[keysersoze123]

FNAF had crazy presales. So it under indexed big time in Denver. None of the rest are also great comps. You did not track Zilla or Ape 😞 Look for any movie that hit 5-6m previews range. 

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 24/438 (5.5% sold) [+5]

 

Comp:

The Bikeriders: $2.18 mil

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 85/594 (14.3% sold) [+20]

 

Comp: 

The Bikeriders: $7.8 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 109/1,032 (10.6% sold) [+25]

 

Comp: 

The Bikeriders: $9.96 mil

Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 34/438 (7.8% sold) [+10]

 

Comp:

The Bikeriders: $1.64 mil

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 108/594 (18.2% sold) [+23]

 

Comp: 

The Bikeriders: $7.01 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 142/1,032 (10.6% sold) [+33]

 

Comp: 

The Bikeriders: $8.22 mil

 

 

I expected this would come down to Earth from its Monday and Tuesday highs, given that Bikeriders started blowing up here this day last week, whereas this film already had a relatively solid starting base before the week. Still, very solid numbers, though, especially for Friday. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Probably 280 seats per a loc here. Don't think those showings are wide enough to really move the needle much past an extra $1m or so. I don't have national data so maybe Keyser or Jat know. 

281 at Disney Springs. It has sold out. I am not sure you count Altamonte Mall. 165 seats and sold out. 

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

06/27/24

A Quiet Place: Day One - 98 tickets sold

Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter One - 27 tickets sold

Kinds of Kindness - 16 tickets sold

Blue Lock: The Movie - Episode Nagi - 9 tickets sold

 

COMPS

A Quiet Place: Day One

0.52x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($5.24M)

0.80x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($4.72M)

1.36x of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($6.81M)

2.72x of The Strangers: Chapter 1 ($3.27M)

4.67x of Abigail ($4.67M)

AVERAGE: $4.94M

 

Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter One

0.07x of Dune: Part Two ($686K)

0.21x of Civil War ($621K)

0.23x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($788K)

0.52x of Argylle ($883K)

0.71x of The Bikeriders ($1.03M)

1.08x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($918K)

AVERAGE: $821K

 

Kinds of Kindness

0.13x of Civil War ($368K)

0.31x of Challengers ($492K)

0.73x of Drive-Away Dolls ($327K)

1.33x of The Book of Clarence ($380K)

AVERAGE: $392K

 

Blue Lock: The Movie - Episode Nagi

0.07x of Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle ($54K)

0.09x of Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training ($169K)

0.12x of Spy x Family Code: White ($83K)

AVERAGE: $102K

 

Small movie weekends are certainly quite interesting for gathering data, but man is tracking 3 sub-$1M movies and coming up with comp sets for each a tedious task. Anyways for the movies themselves, A Quiet Place has finally broken the horror under index curse at my theaters in full force, posting a solid $5M average against the mix of GA action and horror comps I chose. Based on my theaters consistently underselling horror, I'm gonna shoot higher in my prediction with $5.5-6M THU and a $47-51M OW. Horizon tanked pretty hard here which is surprising given the demos of the upper midwest, but it was getting shoved onto the tiniest screens with barely any showings. Bikeriders was the only comp pointing north of a million (and that was using the EA boosted figure), and recent male adult skewing prestige summer IMs like Bikeriders and Elvis make me think Horizon is headed to an ugly number on Sunday morning. $850-950K THU and a $6-8.5M OW. Not even sure if Kinds of Kindness reports preview numbers, but hey it did something at least. Clearly not a Poor Things level breakout but also not a non-entity. Probably eyeing something like $400K THU (if it's reported) and a $2.5-3.5M OW. Blue Lock did basically nothing here despite anime way over indexing in my market, barely eeking past $100K in comps. Anime summer IMs are completely dead and I expect no different with this, $100K THU and a $250-300K OW.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/25/2024 at 7:49 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Horizon Chapter 1 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 6176/117124 73807.62 1126 shows +1138

Friday - 8846/192133 104803.46 1831 shows +2483

 

Not convinced its going to hit 1m previews. Friday is looking better but I may have to reduce expectations even with MTC1 expected to under index. 

Horizon Chapter 1 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 7594/117697 90067.16 1136 shows +1418

Friday - 11903/195145 140717.75 1861 shows +3057

 

I dont remember tracking any movie that sold so few tickets for T-1 🙂 Let us see how walkups go. low double digits from a 1m or tad below previews.  

 

FYI Quiet Place update wont happen tonight as I am getting it now. Will update in the morning. Its looking way more promising though Volde is too high in his expectations there. it aint hitting 60m. That is too much of a stretch from where it is and its under performing in many markets. 

[JD Asencio]

3 hours ago, Insomnia said:

Una pregunta para ustedes, pensé que este era el mejor lugar para ponerla:

 

¿Qué sitio es más preciso para los números mundiales de todos los tiempos, BOM o The Numbers? Algunas de estas cifras son drásticamente diferentes. 

BOM, yes, sometimes they make mistakes in the totals of the re-releases

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28047	33625	5578	16.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-30 Comp

%

Sold T-30

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

111.20

161

5016

1/294

32006/37022

13.55%

16800

33.20%

31.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1192/12925  [9.22% sold]
Matinee:    302/4469  [6.76% | 5.41% of all tickets sold]
3D:             595/6801  [8.75% | 10.67% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2913/11535  [25.25% | 52.22% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV       55 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    55 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28031	33625	5594	16.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

16

 

T-29 Comp

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	82.89		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	26.49%		29.84m
BP2	111.52		161	5016		1/294	32006/37022	13.55%		16800	33.30%		31.23m
AM3	182.93		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	53.40%		32.01m
GOTG3	237.94		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	52.04%		41.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1200/12925  [9.28% sold]
Matinee:     307/4469  [6.87% | 5.49% of all tickets sold]
3D:              597/6801  [8.78% | 10.67% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2924/11535  [25.35% | 52.27% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        14 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    14 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

Okay, I'll go ahead and stipulate that Sacramento definitely under-performed today.

 

More seriously, decided to add all relevant MCU comps, even with GOTG3 being unrepresentative at the moment.

 

As for other films, won't do it for quite a while, but probably gonna add The Batman, Dune 2, and Avatar 2 to the comp blocks at some point (likely before I add John Wick 4 [if I ever add JW4]). Basically looking for films that had a higher PSM* out of Sacramento in an attempt to adjust for fewer kids tickets than are normally sold for MCU films locally (the rationale for The Batman is that DCU films historically under-performed here relative to MCU flicks, so perhaps it can be a case of 'errors canceling'). Not exactly sure when, but it might be different days for different movies. 

* reasonably sure I'm using the correct terminology here by saying 'higher PSM'

 

I know that some might raise an eyebrow on Batsy due to it having all those PLF EA showtimes, but here is what a The Batman comp would have predicted for bigger MCU flicks:

 

MoM:      38.87m [36m]

L&T:        31.16m  [29m]

BP2:        30.87m [28m]

GOTG3:  19.75m  [17.5m]

 

I dunno.  Maybe in the ballpark? FWIW, Batsy didn't have 3D plus ATP hikes since then, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty A Quiet Place: Day One Sacramento Report [T-2]

1630/21885 (7.45% sold) 152 showtimes.

 

1.05229x Nope at T-2               [6.73m]

0.91522x Scream VI at T-2      [5.21m]

1.03822x Bad Boys 4 at T-2    [6.13m]

 

====

 

Doing monster IO2 and DP3 tracks side-by-side gave me a minor case of burnout so I let both AQPD1 and Twisters fall by the wayside on my home sheets but literally (lit-er-a-ly) at the last moment tonight decided to revive my AQPD1 track.  No info from yesterday, but... yeah, this is doing very well. 

 

Threw comps together, again at the last moment, so might have better ones tomorrow when I have time to collect them/think them over.

 

Quick and Dirty A Quiet Place: Day One Sacramento Report [T-1]

2209/22213 (9.94% sold) [+579 tickets] 155 showtimes.

 

2.72044x  M3GAN at T-1    [7.48m]
0.97787x  Nope at T-1         [6.26m]
0.96928x Scream VI at T-1 [5.52m]

0.42868x FNAF at T-1         [4.42m]
----

1.31959x  Aqua 2 at T-1       [5.94m]
1.90760x  Furiosa at T-1      [6.68m]
2.10984x  Fall Guy at T-1     [6.65m]

1.40701x  Bad Boys 4 at T-1 [8.30m]

 

====

 

I mean, I'm not sure I get the concern from some folks today.  Looks fine to me.  But maybe I wasn't expecting all that much.

 

Ignoring the lol comps of M3GAN and especially BB4 (and FNAF in the other direction), looks kinda like 5m to 6m to me.  Of course, horror/thriller are ultra-dependent on day-of sales, so who knows.  But as I said, "looks fine" for a T-1 update.

Edited Thursday at 09:27 AM by Porthos

[vafrow]

20 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-2, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 110

New Sales: 19

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 62/6

Late Evening: 27/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 33/7

IMAX: 36/5

4DX: 22/2

 

Comps

0.655x KOTPOTA for $3.3M

 0.573x Furiosa for $2.0M

0.331x KFP4 for $1.3M

 

Average: $2.3M

 

A couple of noteworthy trends. This is staying flat/falling against comps when I thought it would be increasing, which is not great.

 

However, it's also losing pace against @Inceptionzqchain wide track, indicating that it might be more of a local issue. I'm hard pressed to come up with a theory why though.

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-1, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 151

New Sales: 41

Growth: 37%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 10.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 8/2

Early Evening: 96/6

Late Evening: 47/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 64/7

IMAX: 64/5

4DX: 23/2

 

Comps

0.657x KOTPOTA for $3.3M

 0.637x Furiosa for $2.2M

0.359x KFP4 for $1.4M

 

Average: $2.3M

 

Not a great final day. My hope at the beginning of the week was that it would slowly gain against comps over the week, as it's been lagging. But it's only held steady. 

Edited Thursday at 10:30 AM by vafrow

[vafrow]

20 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-8 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 187

New Sales: 32

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 63

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.0

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 27/13

Early Afternoon: 36/13

Late Afternoon: 25/13

Early Evening: 95/12

Late Evening: 4/13

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 12/18

Regular 3D: 11/15

Dolby: 127/17

Dolby 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 30/10

 

Comps

2.338x Inside Out 2 for $30.4M

2.055x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.9M

2.968x GB:FE for $11.0M

4.065x Wonka for $14.2M

23.375x IF for $40.9M

Average: $21.3M

 

Full showtimes have been added, making this update a bit of a mess. They're really going hard on this one. It's surprising, as Inside Out will still be going strong. Thats a lot of screens for animated films, but it's also full school closures from this Friday.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-7 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 224

New Sales: 37

Growth: 20%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 63

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.6

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 39/13

Early Afternoon: 40/13

Late Afternoon: 30/13

Early Evening: 111/12

Late Evening: 4/13

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 16/18

Regular 3D: 11/15

Dolby: 155/17

Dolby 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 35/10

 

Comps

2.545x Inside Out 2 for $33.1M

1.982x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.5M

3.446x GB:FE for $12.8M

4.226x Wonka for $14.8M

28.000x IF for $49.0M

Average: $21.3M

 

Still staying steady.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/26/2024 at 1:35 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-8 Days

 

Wednesday - 1627/101414 (392 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 - $40.2M

 

Inside Out 2 - $25M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $29M

 

Edit: It seems some shows might have been missed.

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-7 Days

 

Wednesday - 2060/101206 (391 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 ~ $42M

 

Inside Out 2 - $27M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $29.5M

[filmlover]

Horizon's sales are looking much stronger over the weekend than for today. Still not even close to enough to making these movies hits at the combined budget they carry though.

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Horizon	T-1	Jax	5	15	-	117	1,403	8.34%
		Phx	6	17	-	68	1,921	3.54%
		Ral	8	18	-	89	1,428	6.23%
	Total		19	50	-	274	4,752	5.77%
Quiet Place 3	T-1	Jax	6	58	389	459	9,722	4.72%
		Phx	7	53	386	486	8,309	5.85%
		Ral	9	59	311	353	7,967	4.43%
	Total		22	170	1,086	1,298	25,998	4.99%

*AQP3 new since T-24

 

Horizon T-1 adjusted comps

 - Civil War - .54x (1.28m)

 - Stillwater - 5.83x (1.73m)

 - Arthur the King - 2.54x (2.1m)

 - Uncharted - .293x (911k)

 - Monkey Man - 1.06x (1.24m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 1.39x (929k)

 

Size adjusted comp average - 1.24m

 

(Never heard of this movie so I'm not sure if any of these comps are good.)

 

Quiet Place 3 T-1 adjusted comps

 - Nope - .95x (6.23m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.218x (6.73m)

 - Halloween Kills - .919x (4.91m)

 - Scream VI - .862x (5.21m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1x (6.6m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.16x (5.09m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.72m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Horizon	T-0	Jax	5	15	19	136	1,403	9.69%
		Phx	6	17	11	79	1,921	4.11%
		Ral	8	18	13	102	1,428	7.14%
	Total		19	50	43	317	4,752	6.67%
Quiet Place 3	T-0	Jax	6	58	179	638	9,722	6.56%
		Phx	7	53	232	718	8,309	8.64%
		Ral	9	59	147	500	7,967	6.28%
	Total		22	170	558	1,856	25,998	7.14%

*One Phx theater is down today and has all shows marked as sold out.  It's a pretty good theater for presales so numbers will be slightly depressed

 

Horizon T-0 adjusted comps

 - Civil War - .45x (1.08m)

 - Stillwater - 4.73x (1.4m)

 - Arthur the King - 2.19x (1.8m)

 - Uncharted - .252x (783k)

 - Monkey Man - .817x (961k)

 - Last Night in Soho - 1.37x (916k)

 

Size adjusted comp average - 1.1m

 

Likely will finish around 1m

 

Quiet Place 3 T-0 adjusted comps

 - Nope - .935x (6.13m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.293x (7.15m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.024x (5.48m)

 - Scream VI - .97x (5.86m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.14x (7.52m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.215x (5.35m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.99m

 

Hard to say where this will end up with only tracking this a couple days, but this was a good day.  I'm expecting around 6.2m but there's still a pretty wide range

[Cmasterclay]

A Quiet Place? More like quite a pace am I right fellas?

[Cmasterclay]

EDIT double post

Edited Thursday at 01:34 PM by Cmasterclay

[VanillaSkies]

A Quiet Place comes roaring out of the gates with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hopefully that helps move the needle a bit, but I can’t help but wonder why they didn’t let reviews out earlier. Clearly they knew they had a good film in their hands, why not get the word out sooner?!?

Edited Thursday at 01:39 PM by VanillaSkies

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

A Quiet Place comes roaring out of the gates with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hopefully that helps move the needle a bit, but I can’t help but wonder why they didn’t let reviews out earlier. Clearly they knew they had a good film in their hands, why not get the word out sooner?!?

Potential spoiler leaks, probably.

[THUNDER BIRD]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Potential spoiler leaks, probably.

It's A Quiet Place, not A vengers.