The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Insomnia]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

Everyone was saying 2025 would be the big rocking year until reality set in and they realized there actually weren't all that many big things scheduled, so I'm not looking that far ahead right now. Still want 2024 to save face.

 

Hope Moon and Longlegs do a lot better than those Deadline numbers otherwise I'm not really gonna be able to push back against the doomers next week.

 

 

I think 2025 just looks good and refreshing in terms of volume. It's nice to see a full, healthy schedule from the big studios, rather than weekends being filled out here and there by cheap little Roadside Attractions or IFC movies that nobody cares about or even knows about until they see it on the box office chart.

 

Now 2026 will have that PLUS heavy hitters. It's a gradual build up to a pre Covid industry, or at least as close as possible to it.

[misterpepp]

Fabulous Four on sale July 12

[Cmasterclay]

Shawn's numbers have been right near that Deadline number for Longlegs. Maybe the sales are just only in certain markets or times like Maxxxine? 

[AniNate]

I wouldn't have expected Canton, Ohio to be a huge Thursday preview draw but I can see it being similarly frontloaded as Maxxxine. Maybe word of mouth will work in its favor better, though.

 

 

Edited July 9 by AniNate

[Grand Cine]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Longlegs MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 21724/83431 326677.23 812 shows +5989

Friday - 18144/187102 263351.86 1897 shows +5951

 

 

3m+ previews and low 20s OW. I am expecting big growth in shows tomorrow. This includes shows impacted by hurricane but the amount of the shows is limited in that region for it so far. So difference is couple of % only. 

I have data for Black Phone at T-1 :

 

Thursday Previews - 16872/181417 245307.62 1426 shows

Friday Previews - 18413/374537 257150.85 2904 shows

 

It's crazy that Longlegs has much better data even with more limited shows.

[ThomasNicole]

19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Shawn's numbers have been right near that Deadline number for Longlegs. Maybe the sales are just only in certain markets or times like Maxxxine? 

I think the problem is the the sales are much, much higher than Maxxxine. Even if it is frontloaded, 9M seems a bit too low atp.

[AniNate]

LONGLEGS

 

Thursday - 84
Friday - 70
Saturday - 50

 

FLY ME TO THE MOON

 

Thursday - 13
Friday - 4
Saturday - 8

 

Yep

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	77	19	43	7911	0.54

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		34	14	79.07
Other chains:		9	5	20.93

 

Thursday Comps:

Challengers: Missed

0.98x Arthur the King: $805k (17 theaters)

0.39x Anyone But You: $470k (17 theaters)

0.49x Big Fat Greek Wedding: $270k (17 theaters)

0.47x No Hard Feelings: $1 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $635k

 

Accelerated a bit, really needs to grow now.

 

Longlegs (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	33	166	558	2687	20.77

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		310	73	55.56
Other chains:		248	93	44.44

 

Comps:

1.06x Civil War: $3.09 Million

0.7x KoFM: $1.83 Million (17 theaters)

2.86x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $3.43 Million (17 theaters)

2.3x Asteroid City: $2.53 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $2.72 Million

 

Lmao wtf is going on here. Absurdly high capacity rate right now at 20%, but still tiny number of seats and showings

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	86	18	61	9194	0.66

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		44	10	72.13
Other chains:		17	8	27.87

 

Thursday Comps:

0.27x Challengers: $430k

1.19x Arthur the King: $985k (17 theaters)

0.41x Anyone But You: $500k (17 theaters)

0.33x Joy Ride: $360k (17 theaters)

0.55x No Hard Feelings: $1.17 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $690k

 

Still pretty bad, but maybe (unlikely) it will have a NHF-type of path with a great surge these last two days.

 

Longlegs (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	53	213	771	4656	16.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		406	96	52.66
Other chains:		365	117	47.34

 

Comps:

0.91x Maxxxine (w/ EA): $2.9 Million

1.24x Civil War: $3.58 Million

2.47x Monkey Man: $3.46 Million

0.8x KoFM: $2.09 Million (17 theaters)

1.69x The Creator (w/ EA): $2.7 Million (17 theaters)

3.15x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $3.79 Million (17 theaters)

3.96x Talk to Me (w/ EA): $4.93 Million (17 theaters)

1.2x Don't Worry Darling: $3.71 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $3.4 Million

 

Just chucked absolutely everything at it. Still don't think that normal horror comps don't make much sense (they would point to something in the 5-6 Million range, but capacity isn't there yet and I think this will be way more front loaded), but I feel better after seeing everyone else's numbers also pointing to something crazy (I thought I was way overindexing first). Let's see what the last two days look like because theaters are indeed adding more showtimes.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Longlegs may add some more preview shows, but don't expect too many.  This is pretty normal for movies with previews starting at 7pm.  Only so many times available at night.

[emoviefan]

I still can not see Longlegs opening over 20 this week and being number two ahead of IO 2. That would be insane esp for a Neon release. And I know the weekend thread is going to use Moon as Iron Clad proof that Adult non tentpole moviegoing is dead but maybe the movie just did not ever look that good and the reviews while decent  are not good enough in this streaming era to get them off the couch. It looks like a streaming movie, was made to be one  and it probably should have stayed one. It sucks but these are the times we live in. 

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

LONGLEGS 

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
319	1942	65417	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(2.778x) of Watchers $2.78M

(1.793x) of Night Swim $2.69M

Comps AVG: $2.74M 

 

It's doing pretty good. Not seeing anything crazy, probably underindexing here

[misterpepp]

Trap on sale July 16

[Flip]

On 7/8/2024 at 10:19 PM, Flip said:

Longlegs (T-3)

 

5 showtimes/252 tickets sold (+40)

3.45x Watchers (T-3) [3.45m]

.76x AQP Day One (T-3) [5.17m]

 

Show count is still very low (only one 11pm show has been added), and there’s definitely a fair amount overindexing. Hopefully tomorrow it can gain 35 more seats sold, but it will be at the limit of the current capacity

Longlegs (T-2)

 

7 showtimes/327 tickets sold (+75)

3.72x Watchers (T-2) [3.72m]

.77x AQP Day One (T-2) [5.24m]

 

More than doubled my goal, mainly due to two more shows being added. The only problem is that these shows are later in the night, so growth + walkups shouldn’t be that strong. Tomorrow hopefully 1 or 2 more shows will be added (to at least equal Watchers) and at least 80 tickets sold

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-17) - 215510/1284186 3946155.54 7894 shows +2870

 

This includes data from theaters impacted by hurricane. Otherwise I am getting drop in ticket sales 🙂 My assumption is these theaters would be back online soon and tickets sold would count for sure. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-16) - 218905/1285059 4003715.95 7907 shows +3395

 

FYI impacted shows(4668/30692 80786.92 200 shows). I have added those to above as I mentioned yesterday. 9 days/56K to hit the 275K that Charlie is expecting. 

[Flip]

Longlegs Friday  (T-3)

 

12 showtimes/325 tickets sold 

 

1.29x Longlegs Previews (T-3) [???]
.34x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [17.19m]

The IO2 comp is going to plummet (plus I think it underindexed a fair amount for me) but it’s encouraging that it’s not very frontloaded. However, there is the same problem Thursday has where there isn’t much space for growth in the current shows; more need to be added.

[excel1]

10 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Trap on sale July 16

 

the posters being a close up of josh's face w/ m night name is huge letters is a smart move 

[JonathanMB]

When it comes to original straight-up horror post-COVID, only three have actually opened above $12M: Nope, Smile, and M3GAN. Then I guess you could arguably add Cocaine Bear, which is more horror-comedy. Would be extremely impressive if NEON can join those four big studio releases

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Longlegs MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 21724/83431 326677.23 812 shows +5989

Friday - 18144/187102 263351.86 1897 shows +5951

3m+ previews and low 20s OW. I am expecting big growth in shows tomorrow. This includes shows impacted by hurricane but the amount of the shows is limited in that region for it so far. So difference is couple of % only. 

Longlegs MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 28705/120977 432291.38 1121 shows +6985

Friday - 26637/264980 386715.87 2454 shows +8493

 

Not a day with major acceleration but pace is still great. I am expecting it to hit 38-39K by tomorrow and 75k ish finish. OD should hit 60k+ by presales end and finish 120K ish. Should be enough for double digit OD with previews even with lower ATP. I will stick with low 20s OW. 

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Fly Me To the Moon: 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets

Theater 2: 7 Tickets 

 

The Fall Guy: $2.45M

Argylle: $2.27M

ABY: $.38M

MBFGW3: $.51M

Strays: $1.46M

NHF: $1.52M

TtP: $.57M

 

Wide variety. No sign yet, but best leaning $1.5M. 

Fly Me To The Moon: 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 10 Tickets 

 

The Fall Guy: $2.65M

Argylle: $2.21M

ABY: $.34M

MBFGW3: $.51M

Strays: $1.23M

NHF: $1.86M

TtP: $.62M

 

Some rises. Not much. Will say $1.5M for now

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets

Theater 2: 2 Tickets 

 

The Fall Guy: $3.26M

Argylle: $4.79M

ABY: $1.37M

MBFGW3: $.62M

Strays: $3.49M

NHF: $10.09M

TtP: $1.41M

 

another set of wide comps. Looking best around $3M-$4M

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Longlegs: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 40 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets

 

Challengers: $4.55M

Civil War: $11.35M

FNAF: $2.58M

Talk to Me: $7.19M

Evil Dead Rise: $4.48M

TBP: $5.72M

The Northman: $4.28M

 

WAYYYY too high with some stellar WOM presales. Current prediction is $4M-$5M, but realistic is dropping down to $2M-$2.5M

Longlegs: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 45 Tickets

Theater 2: 23 Tickets

 

Challengers: $4.14M

Civil War: $10.88M

FNAF: $3.09M

Talk to Me: $8.47M

Evil Dead Rise: $3.86M

TBP: $6.45M

The Northman: $5.60M

 

Comps still too suspiciously high, but Theater 1 ain't climbing as high as normal horror now. Will still say $3M-$4M for now.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 41 Tickets

Theater 2: 22 Tickets

 

MaXXXine: $4.38M

Challengers: $5.97M

Civil War: $29.34M

FNAF: $2.88M

Talk to Me: $31.01M

Evil Dead Rise: $15.95M

TBP: $13.82M

The Northman: $5.57M

 

Some wild comps, but looking somewhere between $4M-$6M