The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

On 7/16/2024 at 11:05 PM, Flip said:

Twisters Friday (T-3)

 

27 showtimes/237 tix sold (+42)

 

1.17x Twisters Previews (T-3) [???]

.25x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [12.7m]

 

The same thing happened for Friday that happened with previews: Tuesday sales were weaker than Monday which makes me think something must’ve boosted sales yesterday but I have no idea what it was.

Twisters Friday (T-2)

 

27 showtimes/347 tix sold (+110)

 

1.40x Twisters Previews (T-2) [???]

.28x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-2) [14.15m]

 

Much better compared to how previews sold today. I’m expecting anywhere between 170 and 185 tickets sold by T-1.

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-22, Day 1):

Day: T-22, T-21	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	60	51	51	6121	0.83
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	9	36	36	946	3.81
TOTALS:	69	87	87	7067	1.23

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		9	9	17.65
Other chains:		42	42	82.35

 

Day 1 Comps (THU + EA):

0.75x Challengers (w/ EA): $1.61 Million

0.71x Civil War (w/ EA): $2.28 Million

1.71x The Creator (w/ EA): $2.74 Million

 

Decent start

 

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

It would just be nice to have something not a superhero or animated franchise hit, especially given the forum has been down on it for so long. I'm sick of being told how much Deadpool is gonna destroy it next week.

 

Last year people were ready to put a toe tag on Pixar and Marvel.

 

We recently had Apes, Bad Boys, AQP3 and even a surprise, Daddy Long Legs.  Twisters looks to open around the first 3.

 

Not anyone's fault if it happens except Universal's  They should have swapped Twisters and DM4  or moved it to a near dead August.

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

07/18/24

Twisters - 157 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Twisters

0.84x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($8.40M)

1.25x of Civil War ($3.61M)

1.29x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($6.04M)

1.29x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($7.56M)

1.31x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($4.58M)

1.96x of The Fall Guy ($4.61M)

AVERAGE: $5.74M

 

To walkup or not to walkup tis the question on this Twisters preview eve. But nah seriously, Twisters did do pretty solid in my market and exceeded my earlier conservative expectations. Last week of pace in other markets is pretty exceptional, and it does appear to somewhat be bucking the trend of more white skewing movies struggling to finish strong. I do find it interesting that the more white skewing movies like Civil War, Furiosa, and The Fall Guy are spitting out weaker comps in the $3.5-4.5M range, while more Latino heavy walkup giants like GxK and Bad Boys have extremely strong comps in the $7.5-8.5M range. Which path it goes down tomorrow could make all the difference, or it could play more like Ghostbusters in the middle with just average decent walkups. I lean towards that outcome. Predicting $5.5-6.0M THU and a $52-57M OW.

[DAJK]

I can definitely see It Ends With Us being a modest hit. Im not the target demo, but it’s the only remaining movie of 2024 that my mom wants to see, and she hasn’t even read the book. 
 

Also, love her work or hate it, Hoover is one of the biggest names in the online “book community” right now. It Ends With Us, even before the movie, has always been the only Hoover book I know by name. Has to count for something.

 

I don’t know actual book sales, but I definitely think awareness for this can at least match that for Crawdads. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if this opens close to 20M and legs it out to 70+.

[Ryan C]

7 minutes ago, Relevation said:

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

07/18/24

Twisters - 157 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Twisters

0.84x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($8.40M)

1.25x of Civil War ($3.61M)

1.29x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($6.04M)

1.29x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($7.56M)

1.31x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($4.58M)

1.96x of The Fall Guy ($4.61M)

AVERAGE: $5.74M

 

To walkup or not to walkup tis the question on this Twisters preview eve. But nah seriously, Twisters did do pretty solid in my market and exceeded my earlier conservative expectations. Last week of pace in other markets is pretty exceptional, and it does appear to somewhat be bucking the trend of more white skewing movies struggling to finish strong. I do find it interesting that the more white skewing movies like Civil War, Furiosa, and The Fall Guy are spitting out weaker comps in the $3.5-4.5M range, while more Latino heavy walkup giants like GxK and Bad Boys have extremely strong comps in the $7.5-8.5M range. Which path it goes down tomorrow could make all the difference, or it could play more like Ghostbusters in the middle with just average decent walkups. I lean towards that outcome. Predicting $5.5-6.0M THU and a $52-57M OW.

 

I'm assuming that none of this includes EA showings?

[AniNate]

58 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Last year people were ready to put a toe tag on Pixar and Marvel.

 

We recently had Apes, Bad Boys, AQP3 and even a surprise, Daddy Long Legs.  Twisters looks to open around the first 3.

 

Not anyone's fault if it happens except Universal's  They should have swapped Twisters and DM4  or moved it to a near dead August.

 

Point I was aiming to make is everyone is assuming that it will be when I'm not sure that will actually be the case. It's just not many people really care to entertain that theory. Realistically I don't imagine Jason Bourne's legs would've been that much better even if it didn't face Suicide Squad the week after, and Twisters seems to have a better audience/critical reception.

 

If Twisters does manage to benefit as Deadpool spillover/counterprogramming next week then Uni will look like geniuses for keeping that date 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 18 by AniNate

[Rorschach]

On 7/16/2024 at 11:34 PM, Rorschach said:

Twisters (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 151/3,307 (4.6% sold) [+33]

4 IMAX showings: 28/1,552

3 XD showings: 13/714

12 2D showings: 110/1,041

 

Comps:

Apes: $9.56M

Furiosa: $7.89M

Avg: $8.73M

 

Friday: 242/4,519 (5.4% sold) [+59]

5 IMAX showings: 55/1,940

5 XD showings: 41/1,190

15 2D showings: 146/1,389

 

Comps:

Apes: $30.38M

Furiosa: $19.52M

Avg: $24.95M

 

Thurs + Fri: 393/7,826 (5% sold) [+92]

 

Comps:

Apes: $39.82M

Furiosa: $26.78M

Avg: $33.3M

Twisters (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 239/3,307 (7.2% sold) [+88]

4 IMAX showings: 40/1,552

3 XD showings: 25/714

12 2D showings: 174/1,041

 

Comps:

Apes: $11.83M

Furiosa: $9.4M

Avg: $10.62M

 

Friday: 363/4,519 (8% sold) [+121]

5 IMAX showings: 86/1,940

5 XD showings: 68/1,190

15 2D showings: 209/1,389

 

Comps:

Apes: $33.44M

Furiosa: $24.89M

Avg: $29.17M

 

Thurs + Fri: 602/7,826 (5% sold) [+209]

 

Comps:

Apes: $45.86M

Furiosa: $32.99M

Avg: $39.43M

 

 

Stupidly insanely great day today. Looking like it's gonna be an absolute F5-sized monster here. Not even gonna bother predicting final ranges tomorrow because these numbers are probably stratospheric compared to how it'll actually perform nationwide. Still, far and above what I expected from it.

 

Just... WOW!!!

[AniNate]

Would certainly be nice if it didn't end up needing to rely on great legs ofc

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 251914/1341418 4561872.18 8344 shows +7081

Friday - 139892/1506010 2577098.83 8379 shows +5694

 

Good day for sure. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-8) - 259665/1362894 4692515.53 8510 shows +7751

Friday - 146416/1508736 2687896.97 8402 shows +6524

 

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

6 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

I'd do a few eyeball checks. If you've tracked the area enough, your judgement and experience counts for a lot.

 

We're data nerds, so hard data is always the ideal, but experience based intuition always has a role in this type of stuff.

I’ve done a quick check for my theater and yeah… it’s massively over indexing. I only saw three showings that were empty out of quite a lot. So… yeah definitely doing well near me

[Grebacio]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

What's the last movie?

[AniNate]

Longlegs. Yes, those are other non animated sequel/superhero hits and I want more of them.

 

 

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, Ryan C said:

sorry but it just can't just be specific franchise/IP and the occasional original horror film that work in theaters, there's gotta be more and if Twisters doesn't do well, it's gonna prevent studios from taking risks on more disaster movies or just "old-school blockbusters" in general. 

All Hollywood is gonna take from Twisters is that legacy sequels to old movies can do good numbers as long as you have those “old-school vibes”, it’s not gonna ignite this push to take more risks on ambitious projects nor is it this paragon of originality and freshness in the industry 

 

Which is fine btw, everything I said there is also true about Top Gun: Maverick and that was still a very good movie  

[Ryan C]

49 minutes ago, Relevation said:

All Hollywood is gonna take from Twisters is that legacy sequels to old movies can do good numbers as long as you have those “old-school vibes”, it’s not gonna ignite this push to take more risks on ambitious projects nor is it this paragon of originality and freshness in the industry 

 

Which is fine btw, everything I said there is also true about Top Gun: Maverick and that was still a very good movie  

 

I guess I should expect Hollywood to take the wrong lesson. 

 

Still, I just hope this movie's success shows Hollywood that disaster movies are still a theatrically viable genre. Obviously, it's not a perfect example of originality in the film industry, but hopefully it will inspire Hollywood to make more of these kinds of summer blockbusters. 

[CIDMoosa]

How is It Ends With Us tracking? Can it open above 20m+?

[charlie Jatinder]

It Ends with Us MiniTC2 T-22 Days

 

EA - 155/1513 (10 showings)
Previews - 143/17424 (97 showings)

 

Amazing start to sales.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/12/2024 at 1:24 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Previews - 12537/86875 (334 showings)
Friday - 8796/135810 (543 showings)
Saturday - 6985/137672 (544 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $38.5M

Thor 4 - $36M & $58M

GoTG 3 - $38M & $67M

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-8 Days

 

Previews - 15111/105508 (436 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $36M

Thor 4 - $35M 

GoTG 3 - $36M

 

Comps stabilised since the last couple of days, today they increased.

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-8 Days

 

Previews - 15111/105508 (436 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $36M

Thor 4 - $35M 

GoTG 3 - $36M

 

Comps stabilised since the last couple of days, today they increased.

 

Wow, I think this is the first time where I've seen a bunch of comps line up almost perfectly with each other. Pretty impressive. 

 

Still patiently waiting for the final week of this to go in full accelerate mode and potentially reach $40M+. 

[thajdikt]

Just now, Ryan C said:

 

Wow, I think this is the first time where I've seen a bunch of comps line up almost perfectly with each other. Pretty impressive. 

 

Still patiently waiting for the final week of this to go in full accelerate mode and potentially reach $40M+. 

Brother 40M is not happening no matter what.