The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

Twisters MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

EA - 2315/4508 (14 showings) $37K

 

Previews - 3025/64144 (242 showings)

Friday - 4841/145107 (592 showings)

 

Comps - (inc EA) & Friday

Transformers 6 - $7.3M & $16.7M

Apes - $8.6M & $18M

 

I have an Oklahoma location, which is overindexing. Generally, it is low on pre-sales and does better in walkups. For Friday it has 250 sales which is more than one California locs that is normally among the top 3 locs of the chain.

 

In comparison, for Deadpool 3 Friday OK locs has 54 sales while California one has 1584.

Edited July 18 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Brother 40M is not happening no matter what. 

I won't be too sure of that. Final week ramp has been common this year so far, especially in summer.

[thajdikt]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I won't be too sure of that. Final week ramp has been common this year so far, especially in summer.

If it does, then I will happily eat my words. 

[Porthos]

On 7/17/2024 at 2:37 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	289	29259	37280	8021	21.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	112
Total Seats Sold Today	246

 

T-9 Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.60		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	37.98%		24.69m
L&T	104.85		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	47.29%		30.41m
BP2	98.82		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	47.74%		27.67m
AM3	143.85		257	5576		0/238	27218/32794	17.00%		10475	76.57%		25.17m
GOTG3	189.22		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	74.61%		33.11m
Bats	167.07		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	68.22%		36.09m
Ava 2	219.09		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	89.26%		37.25m
Dune 2	302.34		76	2653		0/172	22260/24913	10.65%		6001	133.66%		36.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

GOTG3 NOTE:  The T-9 sold is in fact correct, but the Total Sold jumped up slightly as this is the point in the track when I discovered a GOTG Marathon showing which added 79 tickets to the total amount sold.

 

Regal:      1828/13029  [14.03% sold]
Matinee:     527/4466  [11.80% | 6.57% of all tickets sold]
3D:             945/7488  [12.62% | 11.78% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         3617/11729  [30.84% | 45.09% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     222 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     236 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS

———    

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.6268x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [39.63m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	293	29284	37599	8315	22.11%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	319
Total Seats Sold Today	294

 

T-8 Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.78		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	39.38%		24.76m
L&T	104.80		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	49.02%		30.39m
BP2	99.18		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	49.49%		27.77m
AM3	143.78		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	79.38%		25.16m
GOTG3	188.59		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	77.35%		33.00m
Bats	167.10		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	70.72%		36.09m
Ava 2	212.01		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	92.53%		36.04m
Dune 2	298.89		129	2782		0/172	22131/24913	11.17%		6001	138.56%		35.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1931/13029  [14.82% sold]
Matinee:    551/4466  [12.34% | 6.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:             979/7488  [13.07% | 11.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3659/11729  [31.20% | 44.00% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     275 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     292 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.64709x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-8 [40.12m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

[Porthos]

On 7/17/2024 at 2:38 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Twisters Sacramento Report [T-2]

1786/32624 (5.47% sold) [+341 tickets] 242 showtimes

[EA: 950/3697 (25.70% sold) [+146] - 17 showtimes | Stan:  836/28927 (2.89% sold) [+195] 225 showtimes]

 

0.71383x  RotB at T-2              [6.28m]
2.76043x  Fall Guy at T-2        [8.70m]
0.77720x  GxK at T-2               [7.77m]
0.94248x KPotA at T-2            [6.22m]
1.94553x  Furiosa at T-2         [6.81m]
----

1.13541x   BOSS at T-2           [6.53m]
1.74585x  Wonka at T-2         [6.11m]
1.40852x  Aquabro 2 at T-2   [6.34m]
1.48462x  GBFE at T-2           [6.98m]

 

====

 

Meh.  No real movement to speak of; still looking like 6.5m-ish combined out of Sacramento.  Strong performance in the Midwest might indeed pull it over 7m though.  

 

Not loving that the RotB comp went slightly down, if I'm honest.  Just have to see how EA does tomorrow, I suppose.

 

(also?  Absolutely no reason whatsoever for there to be soooooo many showtimes for this movie.  I blame @Shawn Robbins, personally)

((j/k, Shawn 😉))

(((mostly 😛)))

 

Quick and Dirty Twisters Sacramento Report [T-1]

2661/33369 (7.97% sold) [+875 tickets] 252 showtimes

[EA: 1396/3553 (39.29% sold) [+446] - 17 showtimes | Stan:  1265/29816 (4.24% sold) [+429] 225 showtimes]

 

0.77535x  RotB at T-1           [6.82m]
2.54155x  Fall Guy at T-1      [8.01m]
0.81005x  GxK at T-1             [8.10m]
2.29793x  Furiosa at T-1       [8.04m]
----

1.35627    BOSS  at T-1        [7.80m]
2.10190    Wonka  at T-1       [7.36m]
1.58961    Aquabro 2 at T-1  [7.15m]
1.75876    GBFE at T-1           [8.27m]

------

0.77370x  KPotA [THURSDAY ONLY] [5.11m]
 

========

 

That's more like it.  Now looking somewhere in the 7s combined, locally; perhaps even 8.  The one open question then is: Just how much demand was burnt off today and how much will that impact Thur sales. 

 

No clue.  Find out soon enough.

[AniNate]

Ok I believe the ends with us hype. Close to 50 Thursday sales at Canton

 

Trap has only sold 4 so far. Would've expected more M Night fan turnout at the start if this was gonna do something big.

 

 

Edited July 18 by AniNate

[Grand Cine]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	293	29284	37599	8315	22.11%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	319
Total Seats Sold Today	294

 

T-8 Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.78		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	39.38%		24.76m
L&T	104.80		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	49.02%		30.39m
BP2	99.18		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	49.49%		27.77m
AM3	143.78		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	79.38%		25.16m
GOTG3	188.59		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	77.35%		33.00m
Bats	167.10		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	70.72%		36.09m
Ava 2	212.01		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	92.53%		36.04m
Dune 2	298.89		129	2782		0/172	22131/24913	11.17%		6001	138.56%		35.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1931/13029  [14.82% sold]
Matinee:    551/4466  [12.34% | 6.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:             979/7488  [13.07% | 11.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3659/11729  [31.20% | 44.00% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     275 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     292 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.64709x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-8 [40.12m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

With a total of how many seats CM and TROS finished @Porthosbecause he continues to play exactly like them.

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

With a total of how many seats CM and TROS finished @Porthosbecause he continues to play exactly like them.

 

On 7/4/2024 at 1:30 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

That's not what those columns are saying.  It's saying that those are the DP3 sales at the theaters I tracked for Captain Marvel and the theaters I tracked for TROS.  I suppose it could be clearer, but it's for the people who already have the daily sales info for CM and TROS and want to do their own compare/contrasts.

 

[vafrow]

On 7/17/2024 at 4:10 AM, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-2 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 123

New Sales : 31

Growth: 34%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 214 (50% jump)

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 12/7

Early Evening: 103/7

Late Evening: 8/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 57/8

IMAX: 43/6

4DX: 23/3

 

Previews Comps

2.016x Fall Guy for $4.7M

0.732x KOTPOTA for $3.7M

0.804x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $4.7M

0.337x HG: BoSS for $1.9M

0.641x Furiosa for $2.2M

 

EA Comp

3.292x Fall Guy for $2.6M

 

Growth for previews slipped a bit, but it still grew against comps pretty well. 

 

But it's the 50% growth in EA sales that's the most impressive. I stopped combining EA and previews for comp comparisons, but those numbers ere spitting out comps around $10M.

 

My sample over indexes on EA locations, but it feels like an EA number of at least $2M is possible. When comparing to Fall Guy, it's pointing higher.

 

I also think we'll see a big jump on previews tomorrow when EA isn't there to consume demand. 

 

Twisters, T-1 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 229

New Sales : 106

Growth: 89%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 10.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA final sales: 422 (97% jump)

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 24/7

Early Evening: 171/7

Late Evening: 34/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 116/8

IMAX: 68/6

4DX: 41/3

 

Previews Comps

2.899x Fall Guy for $6.8M

0.996x KOTPOTA for $5.0M

1.032x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $6.1M

0.544x HG: BoSS for $3.1M

0.966x Furiosa for $3.4M

 

This was a fantastic day, and one that I don't have anything that really compares to it in my data.

 

Bad Boys was considered something that finished strong, and that had a final day of 47%.

 

Sales have gone up 5.5 times since Sunday. A week ago, this was still on pace with Fall Guy. It's now triple that.

 

And all signs point to strong walk ups. Yesterday doubled, and thats a reasonable target here.

 

This is a film that seems subject to regional fluctuations, but still, there's little reason for this to outperform the rest of North America. I'm a demographically diverse suburb area of the GTA. This is middle America focused.

 

We did have horrendous flooding this week in the area, so maybe that triggered people to seek out a weather based disaster movie? That's the best explanation I have.

 

I think realistically though, this is just doing really well down the stretch, and there's reason for optimism for this to hit upward end of the ranges.

[AniNate]

Twisters now over 300 sales for Thursday. Seems promising given the walkup patterns

[Cooper Legion]

FWIW, CM was at 4494 T-8 before totaling 10553, so +135% growth or so. TROS was at 15099 before totaling 19541 — mere +30%. The adj CM comp provided suggest that DP3 is currently 7402 at same sources, which would suggest that it would be a bit higher for the TROS comp, maybe 7750ish giving ~24M adj comp.

 

Final vs T-8 growth for:

DS2 — +75%

THOR — +114%

BP2 — +100%

GOTG3 — +144%   
 

accounting for stuff like seasonality, reception, reaction timing etc a *crude* guess might be for DPW to grow 120%ish for a finish ~ 18300 (17100 vs TROS, 16300 vs CM). If that were to come to pass final comps (atp adjusted for the 2019 but still take with a  lot of uncertainty):

CM 37.5

TROS 41

DS2 31

L&T 31

BP2 30.5

Bats 33.5

 

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Twisters

T-1 Thursday: 9550/356155

T-2 Friday: 5332/357987

T-3 Saturday: 2042/355395

T-4 Sunday: 566/352077

 

That's a massive Thursday number, especially compared to my sub sample.

 

My five MTC4 theatre sample has been outperforming the general population based on your numbers. For example, on AQP:D1, my T-1 numbers were 6.2% of yours. For Despicable Me 4, it was 8.1%. My sample only makes up 3.2% of MTC4 locations.

 

Figures for Twisters for my sample is 2.4% of the national total, making mine below average for the chain.

 

I don't have too many data points comparing to the national level, but Jat has weighed in before stating that a GTA sample usually comfortably outperforms the national.

 

My two theories would be that the middle America appeal is also working on small town Canada. The other is that my sample had all five theatres get EA shows. The smaller locations likely didn't, and saw that demand get pulled into Thursday.

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It Ends with Us MiniTC2 T-22 Days

 

EA - 155/1513 (10 showings)
Previews - 143/17424 (97 showings)

 

Amazing start to sales.

For context, better start than all but DP3, Dune 2 and GxK this year.

[TheFlatLannister]

5 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Brother 40M is not happening no matter what. 

why not? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/17/2024 at 8:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-1	Jax	5	93	92	401	13,012	3.08%
		Phx	7	73	102	354	12,402	2.85%
		Ral	8	81	103	413	9,841	4.20%
	Total		20	247	297	1,168	35,255	3.31%

 

Twisters (Thu) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.616x (8.5m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .592x (5.34m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.363x (6.81m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.042x (4.58m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .768x (4.91m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .207x (3.11m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - missed

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.576x (5.406m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.36m

 

Jumped 34% yesterday, only behind Bullet Train of the comps.  Hoping for at least +50% today which should put it around 5.5m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-0	Jax	5	102	204	605	15,007	4.03%
		Phx	7	73	150	504	12,402	4.06%
		Ral	8	81	255	668	9,841	6.79%
	Total		20	256	609	1,777	37,250	4.77%

 

Twisters (Thu) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.71x (8.72m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .655x (5.91m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.496x (7.48m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - .79x (4.27m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.164x (5.12m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .785x (5.02m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .263x (3.96m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - missed

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.702x (5.84m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.58m

Growth model forecast - 5.75m

 

I was hoping for 50% and ended up with +52%.  I think 6m is likely for true previews and there's plenty of room to grow today.  

 

Pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Twisters	157.54%	33.91%	22.15%	52.14%
Fall Guy	122.79%	32.09%	22.60%	48.30%
Godzilla x Kong	112.13%	31.14%	25.23%	37.40%
Kingdom of Apes	117.18%	37.84%	22.65%	38.62%
Ghostbusters: FE	107.19%	32.70%	19.96%	36.22%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
Top Gun 2	70.31%	28.66%	17.93%	19.44%
Bullet Train	140.55%	26.50%	24.45%	40.89%

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/16/2024 at 9:52 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Deadpool Wolverine	T-9	Jax	5	136	225	2,586	18,957	13.64%
		Phx	7	157	40	2,278	22,949	9.93%
		Ral	8	147	184	2,191	16,447	13.32%
	Total		20	440	449	7,055	58,353	12.09%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Deadpool Wolverine T-9 adjusted comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .641x (23.61m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.1x (32.66m)

 - Batman (Total) - 1.318x (29.73m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.632x (28.56m)

 - No Way Home - .363x (19.25m)

 - Black Panther 2 - .988x (28.33m)

 

Size adjusted average - 27.49m

 

**There were quite a few shows in MTC1 in Phx that wouldn't load today, maybe 30 or so.  I tried on both corporate site and Fandango and got the same result.  Numbers could be slightly higher as I was forced to use Sat numbers for those shows.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Deadpool Wolverine	T-7	Jax	5	136	204	2,790	18,957	14.72%
		Phx	7	160	374	2,652	23,146	11.46%
		Ral	8	152	212	2,403	17,295	13.89%
	Total		20	448	790	7,845	59,398	13.21%

*New sales since Tuesday

 

Deadpool Wolverine T-7 adjusted comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .655x (24.13m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.123x (33.34m)

 - Batman (Total) - 1.352x (30.49m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.65x (28.88m)

 - No Way Home - .379x (20.1m)

 - Black Panther 2 - .998x (28.6m)

 

Size adjusted average - 27.89m

 

[AniNate]

Just getting an idea of what international legs might be, looks like Twisters is still doing pretty solid business this weekend at the Sydney IMAX.

[JustLurking]

59 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

why not? 

Not to say it is impossible since we've seen crazier things, but I don't really see which sample is pointing to 40 as a possibility except for Charlie's, and even that requires a pretty crazy late acceleration?

[vale9001]

I told you about It end with us months ago. Most popular book since Hunger Games upon young women. Could go even in the 50M+ territory. 

Edited July 18 by vale9001

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/17/2024 at 9:12 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Twisters EA - 844/1,486 (6 shows)

Twisters Thu - 1,268/22,031 (140 shows)

 

EA comps

 - Top Gun EA - .615x (2.83m)

 - Barbie EA - 1.64x (1.806m)

 

Thu comps

 - Indiana Jones - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .82x (4.92m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .55x (5.06m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .307x (4.51m)

 - Oppenheimer - .68x (7.14m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 2.22x (11.1m)

 - Morbius - .889x (5.07m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Twisters - 2,214/22,031 (140 shows)

 

T-0 comps

 - Indiana Jones - 1.867x (13.44m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.1x (6.59m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .684x (6.29m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .433x (6.36m)

 - Oppenheimer - .966x (10.14m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 2.21x (11.04m)

 - Morbius - 1.124x (6.41m)

 - Avatar 2 - .394x (6.7m)

 

Looking like some convergence around 6.5m without EA