The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[fmpro]

DOM really has to carry Twisters. Its also doing poorly here in Denmark. The original did great back in the days

[abracadabra1998]

15 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	285	415	1865	41468	4.5
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	22	565	1665	4844	34.37
TOTALS:	307	980	3530	46312	7.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1134	252	60.8
MTC1:		813	140	43.59
Other chains:		1052	275	56.41

 

Thursday Comps:

1.94x Quiet Place Day One: $13.18 Million

1.25x Furiosa: $4.36 Million

1.95x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.73 Million

3.61x Fall Guy: $8.49 Million

1.37x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $6.43 Million (17 theaters)

2x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $9.03 Million (17 theaters)

2.33x Wonka: $8.16 Million (17 theaters)

0.75x Indy 5: $5.41 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $8.1 Million

 

Most comps went up, but taking into account what @M37 (whom I have absolute trust on), if Indy is indeed the best comp, seems like it does point to the numbers others are seeing, ~5.5-6 Million. I will have T-1 Hour numbers tomorrow.

 

EA Comps:

3.33x Fall Guy: $2.66 Million

4.81x Challengers: $2.65 Million

1.14x Dune Part 2: $2.28 Million

1.31x MI7: $2.62 Million

 

Average: $2.55 Million

 

Sure, I'll go with $2.5 Million for EA, why not?

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	285	783	2648	41468	6.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1559	425	58.87
MTC1:		1012	199	38.22
Other chains:		1636	584	61.78

 

Thursday Comps:

1.65x Quiet Place Day One: $11.23 Million

2.95x Fall Guy: $6.93 Million

4.8x Monkey Man: $6.72 Million

3.53x Argyle: $5.99 Million (17 theaters)

0.76x Indy 5: $5.51 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.28 Million

 

Most of you know by now that my T-1 Hour updates are pretty inconsistent, so I have a pretty limited set of comps to choose from. Meh last update to be honest; Indy stayed flat, Quiet Place (expectedly) and Fall Guy (not super expectedly) dropped dramatically. The optimistic view is that it's just catching "down" to other markets, while others will catch up with better walk-ups hopefully. My final prediction will be $5.9 Million, +/-0.4, with my EA numbers from yesterday showing something around $2.5 Million, for a total of $8.4 Million, +/- 0.4.

 

I will just say this was a fun one to track here, always fun when some movies overindex in your market  

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-1 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 229

New Sales : 106

Growth: 89%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 10.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA final sales: 422 (97% jump)

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 24/7

Early Evening: 171/7

Late Evening: 34/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 116/8

IMAX: 68/6

4DX: 41/3

 

Previews Comps

2.899x Fall Guy for $6.8M

0.996x KOTPOTA for $5.0M

1.032x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $6.1M

0.544x HG: BoSS for $3.1M

0.966x Furiosa for $3.4M

 

This was a fantastic day, and one that I don't have anything that really compares to it in my data.

 

Bad Boys was considered something that finished strong, and that had a final day of 47%.

 

Sales have gone up 5.5 times since Sunday. A week ago, this was still on pace with Fall Guy. It's now triple that.

 

And all signs point to strong walk ups. Yesterday doubled, and thats a reasonable target here.

 

This is a film that seems subject to regional fluctuations, but still, there's little reason for this to outperform the rest of North America. I'm a demographically diverse suburb area of the GTA. This is middle America focused.

 

We did have horrendous flooding this week in the area, so maybe that triggered people to seek out a weather based disaster movie? That's the best explanation I have.

 

I think realistically though, this is just doing really well down the stretch, and there's reason for optimism for this to hit upward end of the ranges.

 

As of 3:15, sales have gone up 60% today. MTC4 is difficult to track walk ups as info disappears once showtimes start. But that's a solid pace. I expect total growth to be about 100-150% for the day if I had to guess. I probably won't get updated info for the late matinee shows, but I'll aim to count the evening shows later tonight. That's where the bulk of walk ups will be sold.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
349	764	65921	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

(0.526x) of Bad Boys $3.10M

 

*Breakout alert*

Can't think of any comps, but yeah this is really good

[TheFlatLannister]

51 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	285	783	2648	41468	6.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1559	425	58.87
MTC1:		1012	199	38.22
Other chains:		1636	584	61.78

 

Thursday Comps:

1.65x Quiet Place Day One: $11.23 Million

2.95x Fall Guy: $6.93 Million

4.8x Monkey Man: $6.72 Million

3.53x Argyle: $5.99 Million (17 theaters)

0.76x Indy 5: $5.51 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.28 Million

 

Most of you know by now that my T-1 Hour updates are pretty inconsistent, so I have a pretty limited set of comps to choose from. Meh last update to be honest; Indy stayed flat, Quiet Place (expectedly) and Fall Guy (not super expectedly) dropped dramatically. The optimistic view is that it's just catching "down" to other markets, while others will catch up with better walk-ups hopefully. My final prediction will be $5.9 Million, +/-0.4, with my EA numbers from yesterday showing something around $2.5 Million, for a total of $8.4 Million, +/- 0.4.

 

I will just say this was a fun one to track here, always fun when some movies overindex in your market  

Drop Quiet place and i think your comp avg is on point

[abracadabra1998]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Drop Quiet place and i think your comp avg is on point

Yeah… you’re probably right.
 

Honestly, the more I track, the more I think an average is mostly useless because it’s so dependent on what the comps that are chosen are… been pondering just removing averages altogether. I feel like individual comps, with the appropriate target audiences and ratios of pre-sales to walk-ups (this is guesswork of course, but most of the times we can make educated guesses) are much more useful 

[abracadabra1998]

I should say this mostly applies to smaller markets like mine. Since you’re tracking at such a wide range @TheFlatLannister I’m sure an average is more useful 

[keysersoze123]

16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows Final - 40735/104687 835834.35 428 shows +14210

Previews(T-1) - 58915/719176 1074590.83 3979 shows +11000

Friday - 64710/1144290 1140345.38 6361 shows +13340

 

MTC2 Early shows Final - 25025/43124 406554.36 274 shows

 

Thinking it can do 2.25m for early shows and may be 8m for previews including early shows. I think low 60s OW is possible.  

its up to 82746/720129 1447668.58 at this point. That is solid. I am thinking 110K finish and 6m ish thursday only gross as MTC1 will not over index for this movie for sure. 

[Firepower]

So what's up with Alien: Romulus? For a movie with 30-40 mln predictions and some passionate support here, not a single person cared about posting any numbers since its pre-sales started.

[Relevation]

16 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Yeah… you’re probably right.
 

Honestly, the more I track, the more I think an average is mostly useless because it’s so dependent on what the comps that are chosen are… been pondering just removing averages altogether. I feel like individual comps, with the appropriate target audiences and ratios of pre-sales to walk-ups (this is guesswork of course, but most of the times we can make educated guesses) are much more useful 

This is why I try to be really selective with the comps I put together, focusing less on genre and more on how I think the last day walkups will pan out or what the demos of the movie are. My goal in the end is to have a correct average, hence I want to put in comps that together yield an average that makes sense. Like as an example with Twisters, I tried to balance out my average by putting in lower walkup and whiter comps like Furiosa and Civil War, combined with more Latino heavy big walkup finishers like GxK and Bad Boys, since I thought Twisters would finish somewhere in between those two outcomes and I wanted a comp average that reflected that. I didn’t put in comps like A Quiet Place and Apes because I knew they would massively inflate the average given how much they underindexed (they were spitting out $10.9M in comps), and I didn’t put in super low skewing comps like Dune because I knew they would deflate the average too much. For me, putting together an accurate average is as much an overall read of your market data as it is just a prediction for how you think the movie will do, hence I try to be selective with the comps I use, in order to get a balance that looks about right.

 

(now of course this is easier for me because I only track T-1 so I know how the movie I’m tracking had played out in pace for the last few weeks, so getting an accurate balance is harder in the initial stages of presales)

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	109	186	186	18127	1.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		153	153	82.26
MTC1:		144	144	77.42
Other chains:		42	42	22.58

 

Comps:

0.78x Twisters (w/ EA): ?? (if $8 Million combined --> $6.25 Million)

0.83x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $5.5 Million

1.03x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $3.26 Million

1.36x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.11 Million (17 theaters)

3.08x Exorcist Believer: $8.77 Million (17 theaters)

 

Ask and you shall receive @Firepower (although... maybe not your intention, but no need to be rude! @katnisscinnaplex had posted numbers for this already, and it's not like none of us get paid here )

 

Anyways, really good start honestly! Theaters seem pretty skittish though... low number of showings and some of the smaller chains haven't given this PLF screens yet. Think Apes is probably the comp I'll keep a closest eye on 

[Claire of Themyscira]

7 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Ask and you shall receive @Firepower (although... maybe not your intention, but no need to be rude! @katnisscinnaplex had posted numbers for this already, and it's not like none of us get paid here )

Get them again! Get them for me.

[AniNate]

15 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	109	186	186	18127	1.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		153	153	82.26
MTC1:		144	144	77.42
Other chains:		42	42	22.58

 

Comps:

0.78x Twisters (w/ EA): ?? (if $8 Million combined --> $6.25 Million)

0.83x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $5.5 Million

1.03x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $3.26 Million

1.36x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.11 Million (17 theaters)

3.08x Exorcist Believer: $8.77 Million (17 theaters)

 

Ask and you shall receive @Firepower (although... maybe not your intention, but no need to be rude! @katnisscinnaplex had posted numbers for this already, and it's not like none of us get paid here )

 

Anyways, really good start honestly! Theaters seem pretty skittish though... low number of showings and some of the smaller chains haven't given this PLF screens yet. Think Apes is probably the comp I'll keep a closest eye on 

 

Burned by Furiosa I'm sure. That's a reason I'm wary of reading into impressive initial presales here, and personally not all that inclined to devote energy to counting it up yet.

 

 

Edited July 18 by AniNate

[vafrow]

40 minutes ago, Firepower said:

So what's up with Alien: Romulus? For a movie with 30-40 mln predictions and some passionate support here, not a single person cared about posting any numbers since its pre-sales started.

 

I posted some numbers earlier this week around D3/4. I believe others did on opening day or so. The thread is pretty busy these days so easy to miss updates.

[Firepower]

16 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	109	186	186	18127	1.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		153	153	82.26
MTC1:		144	144	77.42
Other chains:		42	42	22.58

 

Comps:

0.78x Twisters (w/ EA): ?? (if $8 Million combined --> $6.25 Million)

0.83x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $5.5 Million

1.03x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $3.26 Million

1.36x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.11 Million (17 theaters)

3.08x Exorcist Believer: $8.77 Million (17 theaters)

 

Ask and you shall receive @Firepower (although... maybe not your intention, but no need to be rude! @katnisscinnaplex had posted numbers for this already, and it's not like none of us get paid here )

 

Anyways, really good start honestly! Theaters seem pretty skittish though... low number of showings and some of the smaller chains haven't given this PLF screens yet. Think Apes is probably the comp I'll keep a closest eye on 

Thanks

[Firepower]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I posted some numbers earlier this week around D3/4. I believe others did on opening day or so. The thread is pretty busy these days so easy to miss updates.

Yeah, I might've missed it I guess, never saw a single post about it since pre-sales start.

[Kon]

15 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Burned by Furiosa I'm sure. That's a reason I'm wary of reading into impressive initial presales here, and personally not all that inclined to devote energy to counting it up yet.

 

 

Were Furiosa initial sales pretty impressive? That would make me wary too.

[Maggie]

So, is 50M OW for Twisters a sure bet?

[Grand Cine]

Good thing that August slate seems good because last year we have Ninja Turtles which was pretty good in US but the rest of the slate wasn't ( Meg 2 and especially Blue Beetle-Gran Turismo) . If Trap, Alien and It End with Us can breakout with D&W, Twister , DM4 and IO2 continuation it could be a stable August vs last year.

 

With a last third of the year probably much stronger than last year . 2024 could be a little better than analysts anticipated .

[efialtes76]

14 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So, is 50M OW for Twisters a sure bet?

100%