The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

12 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I'm sure part of that has to do with the Disney Springs location over there. As you would expect, if you release a Disney movie or a Disney adjacent movie, it's gonna overindex at the theater in a Disney Park. 

It's outpacing GOTG in Orlando and GOTG had a pretty great finish and has a ride at EPCOT 

[Ryan C]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

It's outpacing GOTG in Orlando and GOTG had a pretty great finish and has a ride at EPCOT 

 

Nice! 

 

This is why I still think the R-rating won't have that much of an effect on how the movie does. The kids who couldn't see Deadpool in 2016 or 2018 have grown up and will probably go see this one (a major plus). That, and I'm sure parents will make an exception by bringing their kids (at least teenagers) to see it. 

[thajdikt]

What IM is people expecting for Deadpool and Wolverine?

[THUNDER BIRD]

30 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

What IM is people expecting for Deadpool and Wolverine?

They are saving IM for Secret Wars, but there will be other cameos.

[Menor the Destroyer]

34 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

What IM is people expecting for Deadpool and Wolverine?

5ish, perhaps a bit higher depending on reception. Would be surprised with above 5.5

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/18/2024 at 9:47 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
244	11407	46659	24.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

346

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-7

(1.738x) of GOTG 3 $30.42M

(1.536x) of Barbenheimer $48.53M

It's outpacing GOTG which is pretty impressive considering 60+ presales window and more fanboy rush. Barbenheimer comp is coming back down to earth and should be ~$33M by T-0

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
244	12138	46659	26.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

731

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-6

(1.744x) of GOTG 3 $30.52M

(1.482x) of Barbenheimer $46.83M

Still outpacing GOTG at a healthy rate. Safe to say the trailer was a strong accelerating push. Pretty big jump today

[Flip]

On 7/17/2024 at 10:18 PM, Flip said:

Deadpool 3 (T-8) 

 

39 showtimes/1763 tix sold (+69) 

 

14x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [81.9m]

19.8x Twisters (T-8) [???]

8.12x Quiet Place Day One (T-8) [55.22m]

12.24x Longlegs (T-8) [36.72m]

 

throwing everything at the wall here

Deadpool 3 (T-6) 2 days of sales

 

42 showtimes/1928 tix sold (+165) 

 

14.17x Bad Boys 4 (T-6) [81.9m]

18.9x Twisters (T-6) [151.2m]

Missed Quiet Place Day One (T-6) 

Missed Longlegs (T-6) 
41.91x Watchers (T-6) [41.91m]

 

 

Twisters won’t be a good comp, but I’m mainly keeping it for growth comparisons 

[THUNDER BIRD]

3 minutes ago, Flip said:

Deadpool 3 (T-6) 2 days of sales

 

42 showtimes/1928 tix sold (+165) 

 

14.17x Bad Boys 4 (T-6) [81.9m]

18.9x Twisters (T-6) [151.2m]

Missed Quiet Place Day One (T-6) 

Missed Longlegs (T-6) 
41.91x Watchers (T-6) [41.91m]

 

 

Twisters won’t be a good comp, but I’m mainly keeping it for growth comparisons 

151 million previews..... 

[HummingLemon496]

Really impressive how Deadpool is demolishing Guardians despite being R-Rated. If reviews are great and we get a strong late push then it could 2x GOTG 3 previews ($35M).

Edited July 20 by HummingLemon496

[cookieleeann]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
244	12138	46659	26.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

731

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-6

(1.744x) of GOTG 3 $30.52M

(1.482x) of Barbenheimer $46.83M

Still outpacing GOTG at a healthy rate. Safe to say the trailer was a strong accelerating push. Pretty big jump today

 

Wow this makes me wonder how it's doing in the Miami metropolitan area. 

[Ryan C]

I'm gonna try and take a shot at this. 

 

Deadpool and Wolverine 

 

T-5 

 

Thursday: 1,987 Seats Sold

Friday: 1,360 Seats Sold

Saturday: 1,033 Seats Sold

Sunday: 495 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 1:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I'm only tracking two of my closest/local theaters (both are AMC) as far as tickets sold. I would literally be here all night if I were to track every single theater in my area and I just wanted to started off small and maybe gradually track more cinemas as we get closer to the weekend.  Though don't expect me to track every single film going forward. 

 

Anyways, this data might not do much in the grand scheme of things, but from the looks of it, it seems to indicate that this will easily be the most frontloaded Marvel movie in terms of previews-to-weekend multipliers. 

 

P.S. This does include one "Fan Event" showing and it's nearly sold out. 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Really impressive how Deadpool is demolishing Guardians despite being R-Rated. If reviews are great and we get a strong late push then it could 2x GOTG 3 previews ($35M).

 

The thing is, thanks to it being R-rated, it doesn't NEED to be 2x GOTG3 for it to hit mid-30s. The ATP is gonna be naturally higher, due to it being an R-rated film.

 

...

 

The prior being said, don't think I haven't noticed Feige making repeated comments about this being a "wholesome" R-rated film and all but insinuating that it's still relatively family friendly.  

 

That is, I noted a few days ago that Feige was going out of his way to say that it's basically 'just' heavy cursing and ultra-violence (and a shit ton of it) for the R-rating and that if parents think their kids are gonna be okay, then... Well, who is he to tell them not to see it?

 

It's an interesting balancing act where he can't actually say, "Hey, kiddos, badger parents to take you!".  But the insinuations and practically turning to folks and giving a big exaggerated wink are, as I said: telling. 

 

And it's not like he doesn't have a point.  The R-rating does in fact cover a whoooooole lot of ground.  

 

Still gonna depress kids ticket sales and still eat into teenager sales in general (depressing the total, if not the ATP) .  But do think Feige and Reynolds are making a pitch to the "cool parents" out there.

Edited July 20 by Porthos

[THUNDER BIRD]

All the parents should take their kids to see this, it's a cinematic event, likes of which are rarely seen.

 

An opportunity to not miss.

[vafrow]

On 7/13/2024 at 10:20 AM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2550

New Sales since T-20: 337

Growth: 15%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 62.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 358/13

Early Evening: 1292/14

Late Evening: 900/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (2023/21)

Regular: 25/1

Dolby: 540/5

IMAX: 941/4

VIP: 457/8

4DX: 60/3

 

3D (527/20)

Regular: 79/2

Dolby: 221/4

IMAX: 50/2

VIP: 177/6

 

Comps 

2.693x Dune 2 (w/ EA) for $32.3M

0.909x Eras Tour (unadjusted for ATP) for $34.3M

7.328x The Marvels for $48.4M 

 

Average: $38.3M

 

Sales pace picked up, from 1% a day to 2%. We should be on the upswing.

 

Comps still aren't the most useful. The good news is I now have a MCU comp. The bad news is that it's The Marvels.

 

This is the last day I tracked Eras Tour, so that'll drop off for the next update.

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 3202

New Sales since T-13: 652

Growth: 26%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per Showtime: 48.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 503/21

Early Evening: 1547/23

Late Evening: 1152/22

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (2511/45)

Regular: 156/17

Dolby: 635/7

IMAX: 1023/4

VIP: 603/14

4DX: 94/3

 

3D (691/21)

Regular: 95/8

Dolby: 313/5

IMAX: 73/2

VIP: 210/6

 

Comps 

4.889x Dune 2 (no EA) for $48.9M

6.575x The Marvels for $43.4M 

 

Average: $46.1M

 

Sales pace increased as we head to the final stretch as expected. Screen count increased as well, going from 41 shows to 66. 

 

Lacking good comps, it's not telling me much. It'll be helpful for a baseline for future tracks.

 

Dune probably is the closest though, given the overperformance in Canada. Which is why it's continued outpacing there is significant.

 

Dune roughly doubled from its T-6 to T-1 though. If I do one moee pull on this, it'll be T-1, and interesting to see if it can match that pace 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/18/2024 at 1:24 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-8 Days

 

Previews - 15111/105508 (436 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $36M

Thor 4 - $35M 

GoTG 3 - $36M

 

Comps stabilised since the last couple of days, today they increased.

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-6 Days

 

Previews - 17239/108313 (458 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $37M

Thor 4 - $35.5M 

GoTG 3 - $36M

 

And so it begins?

Edited July 20 by charlie Jatinder

[vafrow]

On 7/15/2024 at 8:42 PM, vafrow said:

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, D4, T-31, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 21

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 7

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 3.0

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 3/1

Early Evening: 16/3

Late Evening: 2/3

 

Tickets by Format:

VIP: 12/4

IMAX: 9/3

 

Comps

D4 Comps

1.909x AQP:D1 for $13.0M

1.500x KOTPOTA for $7.5M

0.467x Furiosa for $1.6M

1.105x BB:ROD for $6.5M

 

I thought I'd set this up since it's doing better than anticipated, and I'm curious if it holds steady or not.

 

It's doing well despite only playing in 2 of 5 theatres right now. It also started its sales cycle much earlier than everything else being comped. The only other comps I have with earlier starts are Twisters and Fall Guy, and those will distort worse.

 

I'll probably track daily to see trends, but only post periodically until it gets closer.

 

I'll be curious if anyone else tracks. I haven't paid much attention to this thread, but if this is one of the only tracks of this right now, I caution casual observers to not read too much into a five theatre Canadian sample.

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, D4, T-27, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 38

New Sales since T-31: 17

Growth: 81%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 7

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 5.4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 4/1

Early Evening: 28/3

Late Evening: 6/3

 

Tickets by Format:

VIP: 12/4

IMAX: 26/3

 

Comps (T minus)

2.235x AQP:D1 for $15.2M

2.714x KOTPOTA for $13.6M

 

This did not slow down at all. It may not be the best comps, but it's the ones I have with a long eno sales cycle that are relevant. I can't use something like Twisters for example, because this already is at where Twisters was in it's final week, so it would spit out something ridiculous.

 

And again, this only has showtimes in 2 of 5 theatres. 

 

 

[Porthos]

On 7/19/2024 at 3:04 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	296	29157	37847	8690	22.96%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	248
Total Seats Sold Today	375

 

T-7 Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.20		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	41.15%		24.91m
L&T	105.03		340	8274		0/240	24544/32818	25.21%		16962	51.23%		30.46m
BP2	99.78		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	51.73%		27.94m
AM3	145.22		201	5984		0/237	26674/32658	18.32%		10475	82.96%		25.41m
GOTG3	187.65		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	80.84%		32.84m
Bats	167.70		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	73.91%		36.22m
Ava 2	209.20		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	96.71%		35.56m
Wick 4	498.28		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	159.51%		44.35m
Dune 2	295.68		157	2939		0/181	22782/25721	11.43%		6001	144.81%		35.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2049/13029  [15.73% sold]
Matinee:     576/4466  [12.90% | 6.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:             1021/7488  [13.64% | 11.75% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         3763/11729  [32.08% | 43.30% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]

DP3 sold     343 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     348 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS         
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.6535x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [40.28m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	302	29064	38190	9126	23.90%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	343
Total Seats Sold Today	436

 

T-6 Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.86		506	13063		0/353	29617/42680	30.61%		21117	43.22%		25.15m
L&T	105.30		393	8667		0/249	24865/33532	25.85%		16962	53.80%		30.54m
BP2	100.24		395	9104		2/308	29023/38127	23.88%		16800	54.32%		28.07m
AM3	147.57		200	6184		0/249	27442/33626	18.39%		10475	87.12%		25.83m
GOTG3	184.44		317	4948		0/226	26866/31814	15.55%		10750	84.89%		32.28m
Bats	168.94		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		11757	77.62%		36.49m
Ava 2	207.88		236	4390		0/184	21739/26129	16.80%		8986	101.56%		35.34m
Wick 4	480.82		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	167.51%		42.79m
Dune 2	292.78		178	3117		0/185	23280/26397	11.81%		6001	152.07%		35.13m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2149/13029  [16.49% sold]
Matinee:    611/4466   [13.68% | 6.70% of all tickets sold]
3D:            1073/7731  [13.88% | 11.76% of all tickets sold]
PLF:    3893/11729      [33.19% | 42.66% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     422 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     419 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.65827x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [40.40m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

Edited July 20 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

10 hours ago, cookieleeann said:

 

Wow this makes me wonder how it's doing in the Miami metropolitan area. 

 

should be around 19k tickets sold throughout the Miami-Tampa-Jax-Tallahassee regions (Miami doing the heavy lifting) vs 12k tickets in orlando 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/19/2024 at 9:25 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 269367/1376789 4854370.40 8625 shows +9702

Friday -  154736/1510676 2828629.59  8420 shows +8320

 

MTC2 Previews - 134027/714819 1998898.20 5619 shows 

 

Definite sign of acceleration. Its around 10% ahead of Thor and minus the fan shows on par with it. T-7 Thor pace was 9057 and so its all on par. Now its all about final week surge. This is my final update but there is someone else who might update going forward. Should be a fun final week. I am now thinking 32-34m previews and 160-170m OW. 

 

Previews (T-6) - 283054/1380393 5083272.32 8707 shows +13700ish (slightly more as I took run a bit earlier)

 

Filling in while Keyser is away. Much bigger day than Thor or BP2 aided by final trailer. 

[keysersoze123]

Awesome day.