The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I have to say this is aging super well. Could be the new norm 

 

It's telling when every single movie that has done well or at least moderately well this summer (aside from Furiosa) had good to amazing walk-up business. 

 

If there's one thing I'll always remember from this thread is that it taught me just how essential walk-up business is for a movie. I knew it was important before, but being in this thread during a summer like this has really showed me just how much movies make from people who don't buy their tickets a month or two months ahead of release. 

[JonathanMB]

Deadpool 2 currently holds the preview record for R-rated movies at $18.6 million...the idea of Deadpool & Wolverine possibly doubling that, even with a 3pm start in the summer vs. a 7pm start in May, is just bananas.

[AniNate]

17 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

It's telling when every single movie that has done well or at least moderately well this summer (aside from Furiosa) had good to amazing walk-up business. 

 

If there's one thing I'll always remember from this thread is that it taught me just how essential walk-up business is for a movie. I knew it was important before, but being in this thread during a summer like this has really showed me just how much movies make from people who don't buy their tickets a month or two months ahead of release. 

 

People are just casually going to "the movies" again.

[Geo1500]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

NWH first day for me were 29680. It is possible actuals were 30K+ as I was checking things manually so may have missed some shows. The next best first day is 12.1K of DS2 while DP3 did 5.44K.
 

No film I have tracked since then had a 25K single day, even on final day. Maybe NWH did but I couldn't track its final. Thor 4 did 22546 on its final day. Expecting Deadpool 3 to may be break NWH record.

 

It would be an insane achievement if it were to break NWH record and I hope it does. I just feel like the hype and excitement on the ground matches that hence anything can happen between now and in the next 48 hours

Edited July 25 by Geo1500

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

 

People are just casually going to "the movies" again.

 

Yeah, they're just annoyingly specific about what they want to see, but that's still way better than nothing. 

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Florida is absolute chaos. Definitely have never seen anything like this and i tracked Barbenheimer

 

  Hide contents

So this is what it felt like to track NWH

 

Oh it's like that now?

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Deadpool & Wolverine: 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 540 Tickets, 17.00%

Theater 2: 550 Tickets, 22.76%

 

The Marvels: $40.88M

Barbie: $23.97M

GotG3: $41.92M

AMatW:Q: $34.94M

BP:WK: $26.77M

T:L&T: $24.95M

DS:MoM: $23.40M

 

Most comps are rising. If pace continues, we'll go $30M+ for now.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 298 Tickets, 6.26%

Theater 2: 379 Tickets, 13.52%

 

The Marvels: $50.28M

Barbie: $18.63M

GotG3: $47.41M

AMatW:Q: $37.31M

BP:WK: $20.38M

T:L&T: $35.84M

DS:MoM: $20.50M

 

Weird comps. The most sensical are the $35M+ for now. Good news, theater capacity is really low that is more room for walk-ups compared to most comps

Deadpool & Wolverine:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 768 Tickets, 24.18%

Theater 2: 707 Tickets, 29.25%

 

The Marvels: $46.58M

Barbie: $24.70M

GotG3: $47.54M

AMatW:Q: $41.70M

BP:WK: $30.15M

T:L&T: $28.84M

DS:MoM: $29.18M

 

Comps are continuing to grow. Now we just have to see about walk-ups. I'm gonna risk a $35M+

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 406 Tickets, 8.52%

Theater 2: 497 Tickets, 17.72%

 

The Marvels: $56.21M

Barbie: $19.85M

GotG3: $48.47M

AMatW:Q: $42.14M

BP:WK: $22.33M

T:L&T: $39.33M

DS:MoM: $24.39M

 

Good jump in comps. I think pace will continue to grow. I'll say $40M+ now.

[Flip]

On 7/7/2024 at 9:12 PM, Flip said:

Deadpool 3 Friday (T-19)

 

39 showtimes/714 tix sold

 

1.30x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-6) [65.72m]

8.5x Despicable Me 4 OD (T-17) [229.5m]

.52x Deadpool 3 Thursday (T-19) [???]

 

Despicable Me comp will get less crazy closer to release

Deadpool 3 Friday (T-2) 17 days of sales

 

56 showtimes/2600 tix sold (+1886)

 

4.19x Despicable Me 4 OD (T-2) [113.97m]

4.63x Longlegs Friday (T-1*) [32.46m]

 

*unfortunately I missed T-2 for Longlegs

[Flip]

On 7/22/2024 at 11:19 AM, Flip said:

Deadpool 3 (T-4) 2 days of sales

 

42 showtimes/2241 tix sold (+313) 

 

 

 

10.77x Longlegs (T-4) [32.31m]
44.82x Watchers (T-4) [44.82m]

Deadpool 3 (T-1) 3 days of sales (NYC/NJ)

 

49 showtimes/3063 tix sold (+822) 

 

7.40x Longlegs (T-1) [22.2m]
29.74x Watchers (T-1) [29.74m]

6.02x AQP Day One (T-1) [40.94m]

 

 Not great, especially compared to other markets. I won’t be able to do an update tomorrow, but based on these numbers I’ll predict 33-35m

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/23/2024 at 10:58 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	473	2138	12368	62327	19.84

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		5876	675	47.51
MTC1:		4404	543	35.61
Other chains:		7964	1595	64.39

 

Comps:

9.65x Furiosa: $33.77 Million

2.39x Dune Part 2 (THU): $23.9 Million (17 theaters)

5.35x Marvels: $35.33 Million (17 theaters)

1.59x Barbie: $33.77 Million (17 theaters)

 

Wowza, went up against every comp, including Barbie, which is a huge feat in of itself. Very nice review bump, awesome stuff!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	475	2207	14575	62502	23.32

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6539	663	44.86
MTC1:		5134	730	35.22
Other chains:		9441	1477	64.78

 

Comps:

9.74x Furiosa: $34.08 Million

2.49x Dune Part 2 (THU): $24.89 Million (17 theaters)

5.44x Marvels: $35.91 Million (17 theaters)

1.53x Barbie: $32.42 Million (17 theaters)

 

Pretty good final day, couldn't keep up with Barbie but after all very few movies could do that. My comps are pointing to around $35 Million but 1. I have shitty comps and 2. this seems to be running hotter elsewhere. I will have a T-1 Hour update but my comps are even worse for that sadly. 

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

07/25/24

Deadpool & Wolverine - 1413 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Deadpool & Wolverine

3.88x of Dune: Part Two ($38.81M)

11.78x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($41.21M)

AVERAGE: $40.01M

Pro tip for doing Fandango manual megatracks: create big boxes of seats and count using multiplication for sold out showings, that strategy made this track far more painless than it very easily could've been. Anyways, obviously extremely strong showing by Deadpool in my market, nearly double the record for my market of DM4, which was an OD track. Dune and Furiosa clearly aren't the best comps, but the only kinda Marvel comp I have is Madame Web, which comped north of $50M and is an OD number lol. Plus, the average I got looks pretty believable? With how this is pacing in other markets, I think $40M previews is very achievable here and it tracks with the data I have here. Personal prediction is $40M THU and a $205-215M OW. Let's hope that's the biggest track for a while.

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Borderlands (T-15, Day 1):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	64	28	28	9049	0.31

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		14	14	50
MTC1:		2	2	7.14
Other chains:		26	26	92.86

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.37x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.46 Million

0.4x Fall Guy: $1.26 Million

0.39x Civil War: $1.13 Million

0.97x Monkey Man: $1.35 Million

 

Obviously not good at all, but many theaters haven't posted showtimes for this yet, undoubtedly waiting for the Deadpool storm to pass a little bit

[Rorschach]

On 7/24/2024 at 12:08 AM, Rorschach said:

Deadpool and Wolverine (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 1,521/3,714 (41% sold) [+162]

3 IMAX showings: 403/1,164

3 XD showings: 374/714

2 3D showings: 87/213

18 2D showings: 657/1,623

 

Friday: 1,325/5,992 (22.1% sold) [+222]

5 IMAX showings: 229/1,940

5 XD showings: 293/1,190

6 3D showings: 107/596

22 2D showings: 696/2,266

Thurs + Fri: 2,846/9,538 (25.8% sold) [+384]

Deadpool and Wolverine (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 1,811/3,714 (48.8% sold) [+290]

3 IMAX showings: 464/1,164

3 XD showings: 411/714

2 3D showings: 99/213

18 2D showings: 837/1,623

 

Comps:

No Way Home: $35.83M

Multiverse of Madness: $33.14M

Average: $34.49M

 

Friday: 1,453/5,992 (24.2% sold) [+128]

5 IMAX showings: 243/1,940

5 XD showings: 336/1,190

6 3D showings: 119/596

22 2D showings: 755/2,266

 

Comps:

No Way Home: $46.81M

Multiverse of Madness: $51.25M

Average: $49.03M

 

Thurs + Fri: 3,264/9,538 (34.2% sold) [+418]

 

Comps:

No Way Home: $83.62M

Multiverse of Madness: $77.88M

Average: $80.75M

[Ryan C]

On 7/20/2024 at 1:41 AM, Ryan C said:

I'm gonna try and take a shot at this. 

 

Deadpool and Wolverine 

 

T-5 

 

Thursday: 1,987 Seats Sold

Friday: 1,360 Seats Sold

Saturday: 1,033 Seats Sold

Sunday: 495 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 1:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I'm only tracking two of my closest/local theaters (both are AMC) as far as tickets sold. I would literally be here all night if I were to track every single theater in my area and I just wanted to started off small and maybe gradually track more cinemas as we get closer to the weekend.  Though don't expect me to track every single film going forward. 

 

Anyways, this data might not do much in the grand scheme of things, but from the looks of it, it seems to indicate that this will easily be the most frontloaded Marvel movie in terms of previews-to-weekend multipliers. 

 

P.S. This does include one "Fan Event" showing and it's nearly sold out. 

 

Deadpool and Wolverine

 

T-0

 

Theater 1: 4,011 Seats Sold Between Thursday to Sunday

Theater 2: 4,775 Seats Sold Between Thursday to Sunday

 

= 8,786 Seats Sold (80% Increase From 4,875 Seats Sold Last Time)

 

Taken as of 2:30 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Apologies if this might be confusing/different compared to last time, but I just tracked my two local theaters again and added all the tickets sold between Thursday to Sunday instead of counting up all the tickets sold at these two theaters on individual days. 

 

Also thought it would be helpful to add how much higher it is from last time in terms of percentage. The fact that it increased by 80% compared to last Saturday is just amazing and clearly shows that the acceleration of ticket sales ain't slowing down anytime soon. Never mind the fact that there were more showtimes added on Thursday and more will probably be added over the weekend to keep up with demand. 

 

Just by looking at all this (and without any comps), $35M in previews is looking really good right now and if it continues at this pace, $40M is not impossible. Though if there's anything this summer has taught us, never underestimate the power of walk-ups. 

Edited July 25 by Ryan C

[Porthos]

[NGGKroze]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

[THUNDER BIRD]

The Juggernaut has gained momentum and will stop only after decimating all records.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	360	29286	42320	13034	30.80%

 

Total Showings Added Today	28
Total Seats Added Today	2149
Total Seats Sold Today	1564

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	78.65		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	61.72%		28.31m
L&T	115.65		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	76.84%		33.54m
BP2	109.28		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	77.58%		30.60m
AM3	169.82		587	7675		0/289	28754/36429	21.07%		10475	124.43%		29.72m
GOTG3	181.30		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	121.25%		31.73m
AtSV	241.24		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	133.76%		41.85m
Bats	164.61		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	110.86%		35.56m
Ava 2	207.88		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	145.05%		35.34m
Wick 4	407.44		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	239.24%		36.26m
Dune 2	294.02		419	4433		0/237	25835/30268	14.65%		6001	217.20%		35.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     3329/13722  [24.26% sold]
Matinee:     976/4629  [21.08% | 7.49% of all tickets sold]
3D:             1678/8151  [20.59% | 12.87% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         4930/11729  [42.03% | 37.82% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     1461 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     1489 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.70204x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [41.46m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

======================

 

DP3: [T-2]

Total Seats Sold Today

1564

 

NWH: [T-2]

Total Seats Sold T-2

1659

 

"NOT A RECORD"

 

 

 

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	359	25967	41392	15425	37.27%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Today	1
Total Net Seats Removed Today	928
Total Net Seats Sold Today	2391

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	61.54		1961	25067		0/373	16985/42052	59.61%		28183	54.73%		30.77m
MoM	84.44		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	73.05%		30.40m
L&T	114.12		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	90.94%		33.10m
BP2	113.24		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	91.82%		31.71m
AM3	178.24		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	147.26%		31.19m
GOTG3	184.44		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	143.49%		32.28m
AtSV	219.26		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	158.30%		38.04m
Bats	161.70		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	131.20%		34.93m
Ava 2	213.02		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	171.66%		36.21m
Wick 4	394.00		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	283.13%		35.07m
Dune 2	307.88		577	5010		0/242	25728/30738	16.30%		6001	257.04%		36.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      4041/12504  [32.32% sold]
Matinee:    1220/4223  [28.89% | 7.91% of all tickets sold]
3D:             2079/7617  [27.29% | 13.48% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         5439/11103  [48.99% | 35.26% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     2236 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     2267 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.75313x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [42.71m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%] [lol]

 

====

 

Who knew the difference between a record breaking day and not was the difference between 81 RT and 79 RT?

 

AND PEOPLE DOUBT THE POWAH OF TOMATO LAW!!1!!

 

---

 

All kidding aside, what is there to say?  Just a monster of a penultimate day.  Mind, it needed a monster day to move some of those comps/keep pace with the more backloaded ones.  But still managed to do it.  Might be enough for me to start eyeing 36m+ as the target locally instead of 35m.

 

Only other thing to note is that this would have been a 2400+ seat sold day, but I had to remove six showings (totaling 19 tickets sold) from a theater which yanked some showtimes.  It's what I would term a "troubled theater" in town and I suspect it's either staffing issues or projector problems or just trying to keep the lights on.  Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but I must admit 24xx probably was a bit more ascetically pleasing than 239x.

 

Now we see just where this plane lands, tomorrow.

Edited July 25 by Porthos

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, NGGKroze said:

 

ngl, as I was doing my track and keeping half-an-eye on the final total and my expected pace based on local patterns, I was hoping for a 2500+ seat sold night. 

 

Alas, will have to "settle" for breaking the local Sacto T-1 record by about 150 seats. 😉 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	61.54		1961	25067		0/373	16985/42052	59.61%		28183	54.73%		30.77m
MoM	84.44		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	73.05%		30.40m
L&T	114.12		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	90.94%		33.10m
BP2	113.24		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	91.82%		31.71m
AM3	178.24		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	147.26%		31.19m
GOTG3	184.44		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	143.49%		32.28m
AtSV	219.26		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	158.30%		38.04m
Bats	161.70		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	131.20%		34.93m
Ava 2	213.02		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	171.66%		36.21m
Wick 4	394.00		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	283.13%		35.07m
Dune 2	307.88		577	5010		0/242	25728/30738	16.30%		6001	257.04%		36.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Oh yeah, one other thing.  After the question about NWH from @Grand Cine, I ran some T-0 numbers for all my comps and saw that NWH is... actually a really nice comp for T-0, being somewhere between most of the MCU films I have and The Batman.

 

So I decided to add it to the comp block tonight. And even though ATP differences (both from hikes and MPAA ratings) make it challenging, it's the PSM which matters more,  so maybe the factors are cancelling themselves out.  If not, seeing how it's selling against the (then) 50m movie is probably still instructive for capacity/pace.