The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

Hmm. I guess ATP there could be difference of 1-1.5% due to R rating. Mostly of not much value but could be difference of $39.5M and $40M.

[Cooper Legion]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hmm. I guess ATP there could be difference of 1-1.5% due to R rating. Mostly of not much value but could be difference of $39.5M and $40M.

Dunno how much is R vs just 2 years inflation but the ATP diff at mtc is more like 8% right. Maybe 5%ish inflation 2.5%ish ticket type distribution?

[Cooper Legion]

22 hours ago, Joyous Legion said:

-> 31.3M  

 

T-1 record could fall imo, target is 1961

 

Edit: No wait, nwh is 1961 but L&T has the record with 2246 lol

Gottem 😎

 

Like for like size-adj avg 31.3M -> 32.4M, with NWH included (agree with this btw) closer to 32.45
 

Not exactly sophisticated math here but often each of the final day updates has about as much comp movement as the previous two days avg, so might go to something like 33.6 & then 34.75 final (before atp)

Edited July 25 by Joyous Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

Dunno how much is R vs just 2 years inflation but the ATP diff at mtc is more like 8% right. Maybe 5%ish inflation 2.5%ish ticket type distribution?

I won't care much about it really. Ticket face value doesn't really matter. A ticket sold by membership of chain get a fixed amount.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I won't care much about it really. Ticket face value doesn't really matter. A ticket sold by membership of chain get a fixed amount.

Do we know what % of sales is from members vs nonmembers? I would have thought mostly membership % low so face value still pretty significant.   
 

Also is the membership value provided anywhere? Surely it’s not immune from inflation itself, if it’s gone up 22->24 that could be important

Edited July 25 by Joyous Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

22 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Previews - 26879/161366 (796 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $40M

Thor 4 - $39M 

GoTG 3 - $38M

 

Nearly 4K tix sold today. Should aim for close to 6K+ tomorrow, possibly closer to 7K.

 

Last 5 days sales

 

Deadpool 3 - 11022
DSitMoM - 10421
Thor 4 - 6707
Black Panther 2 - 6256
GoTG 3 - 4873

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Previews - 33797/162772 (812 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $41.6M

Thor 4 - $39M 

GoTG 3 - $38.5M

DSitMoM - $31.5M

 

Sold 6.9K. Great day again. This is the biggest single-day increase not being the first and final day for previews I have tracked. It is also the biggest day of sales for DP3 beating 5.4K on its first day.

 

Should clear 60K+ tomorrow, preferably over 62K+.

 

The above comps are without ATP adjustment. Add 5% over 2022 films, though BP3 probably struck down 10% due to it underindexing here. 

[vafrow]

On 7/22/2024 at 6:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 3566

New Sales since T-6: 364

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per Showtime: 54.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 563/21

Early Evening: 1680/23

Late Evening: 1323/22

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (2802/45)

Regular: 308/17

Dolby: 686/7

IMAX: 1057/4

VIP: 652/14

4DX: 99/3

 

3D (764/21)

Regular: 108/8

Dolby: 353/5

IMAX: 86/2

VIP: 217/6

 

Comps 

4.402x Dune 2 (no EA) for $44.0M

6.245x The Marvels for $41.2M 

 

Average: $42.6M

 

I did the pull last night, but only had a chance to post this morning. I guess I did have time for another update. 

 

Comps are dropping, which speaks to them not being the greatest. It's probably putting it on track for mid 30s, which is where the consensus is.

 

Interestingly, regular showings are now the biggest category of sales. Casual viewers not interested in the premium formats, plus the regular are the most recently added and have the best capacity available.

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 4935

New Sales since T-4: 1369

Growth: 38%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per Showtime: 74.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

Percentage of total MTC4 sales: 5.8%

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 918/21

Early Evening: 2082/23

Late Evening: 1935/22

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (3823/45)

Regular: 806/17

Dolby: 899/7

IMAX: 1147/4

VIP: 855/14

4DX: 116/3

 

3D (1112/21)

Regular: 177/8

Dolby: 539/5

IMAX: 158/2

VIP: 238/6

 

Comps 

4.102x Dune 2 (no EA) for $41.0M

6.898x The Marvels for $44.9M 

2.639x GOTG3 (single theatre comp) for $46.1M

Average: $44.0M

 

There's not too much to say on comps. They're looking good, but larger tracks are more accurate at this stage. 

 

Using Inceptionzq numbers, I can compare against the chain wide numbers, and at only 5.8%, this is actually underperforming compared to other recent films locally. And given the comps are strong, it's a positive sign for Canada as a whole. The MTC4 numbers have been growing faster as well.

 

Trying to look at the breakdown of sales type doesn't yield much insight, other than the popular formats are near capacity and people are buying what's left. Strong sales for matinee and late shows. All the basic showings that were added late are selling well.

[Grand Cine]

No change of prediction for Sacra 19-20K Final. 34-35M

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oh yeah, one other thing.  After the question about NWH from @Grand Cine, I ran some T-0 numbers for all my comps and saw that NWH is... actually a really nice comp for T-0, being somewhere between most of the MCU films I have and The Batman.

 

So I decided to add it to the comp block tonight. And even though ATP differences (both from hikes and MPAA ratings) make it challenging, it's the PSM which matters more,  so maybe the factors are cancelling themselves out.  If not, seeing how it's selling against the (then) 50m movie is probably still instructive for capacity/pace.

Clearly , you did the right thing , when i saw that he plays like MOM , NWH could be a good comp also.

[vafrow]

Borderlands, D1, T-15, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 0.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/5

Early Evening: 3/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 3/15

VIP: 2/4

 

D1 Comps 

1.000x BB:RoD for $5.9M

1.250x KOTPOTA for $6.3M

0.313x Furiosa for $1.5M

0.098x GxK for $1.0M

 

Average: $3.6M

 

I threw a bunch of comps at the wall and see what sticks, but nothing feels like the right match here.

 

[Cooper Legion]

On 7/24/2024 at 2:46 AM, Joyous Legion said:

  Reveal hidden contents

I guess we won’t get mtc1 until morning, so:

T-2
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$33.40	$34.10	$34.80	$35.50	$36.20	$36.90	$37.60	$38.30	$39.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	4.92	$164.33	$167.77	$171.22	$174.66	$178.10	$181.55	$184.99	$188.44	$191.88
	5	$167.00	$170.50	$174.00	$177.50	$181.00	$184.50	$188.00	$191.50	$195.00
	5.08	$169.67	$173.23	$176.78	$180.34	$183.90	$187.45	$191.01	$194.56	$198.12
	5.16	$172.34	$175.96	$179.57	$183.18	$186.79	$190.40	$194.02	$197.63	$201.24
	5.24	$175.02	$178.68	$182.35	$186.02	$189.69	$193.36	$197.02	$200.69	$204.36
	5.32	$177.69	$181.41	$185.14	$188.86	$192.58	$196.31	$200.03	$203.76	$207.48
	5.4	$180.36	$184.14	$187.92	$191.70	$195.48	$199.26	$203.04	$206.82	$210.60
	5.48	$183.03	$186.87	$190.70	$194.54	$198.38	$202.21	$206.05	$209.88	$213.72
	5.56	$185.70	$189.60	$193.49	$197.38	$201.27	$205.16	$209.06	$212.95	$216.84

 

 

Narrowing down, plenty of uncertainty left for final 2 days pace and atp impact but don’t foresee 40 as possible with those reviews (they are fine but stretch goals involve  random variables resolving to notably-better-than-fine)

Previous version above, mtc-1 update required some adjustments 

T-2
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$35.80	$36.40	$37.00	$37.60	$38.20	$38.80	$39.40	$40.00	$40.60
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5	$179.00	$182.00	$185.00	$188.00	$191.00	$194.00	$197.00	$200.00	$203.00
	5.07	$181.51	$184.55	$187.59	$190.63	$193.67	$196.72	$199.76	$202.80	$205.84
	5.14	$184.01	$187.10	$190.18	$193.26	$196.35	$199.43	$202.52	$205.60	$208.68
	5.21	$186.52	$189.64	$192.77	$195.90	$199.02	$202.15	$205.27	$208.40	$211.53
	5.28	$189.02	$192.19	$195.36	$198.53	$201.70	$204.86	$208.03	$211.20	$214.37
	5.35	$191.53	$194.74	$197.95	$201.16	$204.37	$207.58	$210.79	$214.00	$217.21
	5.42	$194.04	$197.29	$200.54	$203.79	$207.04	$210.30	$213.55	$216.80	$220.05
	5.49	$196.54	$199.84	$203.13	$206.42	$209.72	$213.01	$216.31	$219.60	$222.89
	5.56	$199.05	$202.38	$205.72	$209.06	$212.39	$215.73	$219.06	$222.40	$225.74

Final presale grid I guess

T-1
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$36.40	$37.00	$37.60	$38.20	$38.80	$39.40	$40.00	$40.60	$41.20
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.13	$186.73	$189.81	$192.89	$195.97	$199.04	$202.12	$205.20	$208.28	$211.36
	5.2	$189.28	$192.40	$195.52	$198.64	$201.76	$204.88	$208.00	$211.12	$214.24
	5.26	$191.46	$194.62	$197.78	$200.93	$204.09	$207.24	$210.40	$213.56	$216.71
	5.32	$193.65	$196.84	$200.03	$203.22	$206.42	$209.61	$212.80	$215.99	$219.18
	5.38	$195.83	$199.06	$202.29	$205.52	$208.74	$211.97	$215.20	$218.43	$221.66
	5.44	$198.02	$201.28	$204.54	$207.81	$211.07	$214.34	$217.60	$220.86	$224.13
	5.5	$200.20	$203.50	$206.80	$210.10	$213.40	$216.70	$220.00	$223.30	$226.60
	5.56	$202.38	$205.72	$209.06	$212.39	$215.73	$219.06	$222.40	$225.74	$229.07
	5.62	$204.57	$207.94	$211.31	$214.68	$218.06	$221.43	$224.80	$228.17	$231.54

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/24/2024 at 7:06 AM, Menor the Destroyer said:

Deadpool and Wolverine MTC1 T-2

Thu: 388695/1486860 6814215.26 9866 shows +45502

Fri: 276364/1850200 4842263.60 11386 shows (+121628 in 5 days)

 

Another great day, outpacing all 2022 comps and not far behind NWH, which had an Atom deal. Fri ratio is also better than Thor 4.

 

Thu: 450892/1497052 7796982.98 10022 shows  +62197

Sat: 270897/1909938 4538426.28 11563 shows

 

 

Solid day. There was an issue in getting Fri data

Edited July 25 by Menor the Destroyer

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

Final presale grid I guess

T-1
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$36.40	$37.00	$37.60	$38.20	$38.80	$39.40	$40.00	$40.60	$41.20
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.13	$186.73	$189.81	$192.89	$195.97	$199.04	$202.12	$205.20	$208.28	$211.36
	5.2	$189.28	$192.40	$195.52	$198.64	$201.76	$204.88	$208.00	$211.12	$214.24
	5.26	$191.46	$194.62	$197.78	$200.93	$204.09	$207.24	$210.40	$213.56	$216.71
	5.32	$193.65	$196.84	$200.03	$203.22	$206.42	$209.61	$212.80	$215.99	$219.18
	5.38	$195.83	$199.06	$202.29	$205.52	$208.74	$211.97	$215.20	$218.43	$221.66
	5.44	$198.02	$201.28	$204.54	$207.81	$211.07	$214.34	$217.60	$220.86	$224.13
	5.5	$200.20	$203.50	$206.80	$210.10	$213.40	$216.70	$220.00	$223.30	$226.60
	5.56	$202.38	$205.72	$209.06	$212.39	$215.73	$219.06	$222.40	$225.74	$229.07
	5.62	$204.57	$207.94	$211.31	$214.68	$218.06	$221.43	$224.80	$228.17	$231.54

 

 

 

So unless there's a complete unexpected dropoff either today or over the weekend, there's a very good chance at this point that D&W will hit at least $200M this weekend. Awesome!

 

Also, that IM between 5.3 and 5.4 would be slightly leggier than expected, but with this movie assuming it does well with general audiences and the fans (at least 4.5 stars on PostTrak), that wouldn't be impossible to imagine. 

 

I said it before and I'll say it again, tonight is gonna be crazy!

 

 

[thajdikt]

It’s wild that 200M is a possibility. 

[blazera]

10 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

It’s wild that 200M is a possibility. 

As I said countless times. They hype is unreal.  I know presale numbers are quit good, but not sensational. But it is a trend now, that big movies get a huge boost in the last week. Presales were good enough and after the 81 RT score and a lot of praise from fans in the markets its already opend, a 200 million should not surprise at all. This could age really bad but anything under 200 million would surprise me big time. 

 

 

[AniNate]

I was looking at Thursday Twisters sales at Canton and there's 166 for the rest of the day (missed the 9AM show counts). Extrapolating that by the ATP times theater count and that's already close to $8 million. Yes it's a cheaper more Twisters-friendly region but the primetime tickets are still more than $11.23, and it still has a $12 noon XD show with about 40 sales.

 

 

Edited July 25 by AniNate

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Joyous Legion said:

Final presale grid I guess

T-1
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$36.40	$37.00	$37.60	$38.20	$38.80	$39.40	$40.00	$40.60	$41.20
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.13	$186.73	$189.81	$192.89	$195.97	$199.04	$202.12	$205.20	$208.28	$211.36
	5.2	$189.28	$192.40	$195.52	$198.64	$201.76	$204.88	$208.00	$211.12	$214.24
	5.26	$191.46	$194.62	$197.78	$200.93	$204.09	$207.24	$210.40	$213.56	$216.71
	5.32	$193.65	$196.84	$200.03	$203.22	$206.42	$209.61	$212.80	$215.99	$219.18
	5.38	$195.83	$199.06	$202.29	$205.52	$208.74	$211.97	$215.20	$218.43	$221.66
	5.44	$198.02	$201.28	$204.54	$207.81	$211.07	$214.34	$217.60	$220.86	$224.13
	5.5	$200.20	$203.50	$206.80	$210.10	$213.40	$216.70	$220.00	$223.30	$226.60
	5.56	$202.38	$205.72	$209.06	$212.39	$215.73	$219.06	$222.40	$225.74	$229.07
	5.62	$204.57	$207.94	$211.31	$214.68	$218.06	$221.43	$224.80	$228.17	$231.54

 

 

Homecoming.

[Grand Cine]

2 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Thu: 450892/1497052 7796982.98 10022 shows  +62197

Sat: 270897/1909938 4538426.28 11563 shows

 

 

Solid day. There was an issue in getting Fri data

Probably 630-640K total for Thu , Pretty solid for Sat . I think legs for the weekend will be better than Thor 4.

[el sid]

First, a little update of the Alien: Romulus presales in my theaters: 

 

Alien: Romulus had on Monday (= 3 days ago) for Thursday, August 15, very solid 793 sold tickets (with shows in 6 theaters, no shows so far in the AMC in Texas). 

Best presales in the two AMCs in California. 

24 days left.

 

Comps (always counted for Thursday: CW (2.6M from true Thursday previews) had on Monday of the release week 826 sold tickets (= 21 days left for A: R to overtake).

The Fall Guy (2.35M) had also on Monday of the release week 669 sold tickets. 

AQP: Day One (6.8M) had 637 sold tickets with 19 days left (= 5 days left for A: R to increase the margin). 

Indy 5 (7.2M) had 957 sold tickets with also ca. 1 month left. 

And The Creator (1.6M) had with 13 days left (= 11 days left for A: R to increase the margin) 449 sold tickets. 

 

With so different time spans it doesn't make sense to try to give you an average number but as you can see, A: R is doing pretty well in my theaters. I expected (way) lower numbers. 

 

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

I was looking at Thursday Twisters sales at Canton and there's 166 for the rest of the day (missed the 9AM show counts). Extrapolating that by the ATP times theater count and that's already close to $8 million. Yes it's a cheaper more Twisters-friendly region but the primetime tickets are still more than $11.23, and it still has a $12 noon XD show with about 40 sales.

 

 

 

Now post-the 12PM XD (which closed out around 50) it's now at 167 the rest of the day

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Taylor Swift just promoted DW on her Instagram, so be wary of any spike in presales in the next few hours.