The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/6/2024 at 9:17 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Still adding shows as they get close to filling up.  In my US sample it's added 300 EA shows since Friday (30% increase).  This includes a few XD shows including two in a Jacksonville theater I track which have sold 137 tickets since those were added over the weekend.  This looks really MTC2 heavy for some reason @keysersoze123

Just ran final shows for EA... it added another 700 shows since this post to finish with over 2k shows in my US sample.  

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

It Ends With Us T-1                                                                                               

Sales	Seats	Shows
2508	19244	149

TC=28, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

1.39x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $6.5m

5.36x Challengers T-1 = $8.6m

2.85x Furiosa T-1 = $10.0m

9.15x Bikeriders T-1 = $11.9m

 

Not as good today, but still doing well overall. This is the fourth highest T-1 value for sales I have this year, running behind D&W and only slightly behind Dune 2 and Inside Out 2. 

 

 

Indiana

It Ends With Us T-0                                                                                               

Sales	Seats	Shows
3212	19550	153

TC=28, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

0.19x Deadpool & Wolverine T-0 = $7.5m

1.02x Twisters T-0 = $8.4m

 

AVG = $7.95m

Adj AVG = $5.96m*

*avg reduced 25% to account for ATP 

 

Deadpool and Twisters also overindexed here a lot, so they're probably my best comps for this. 

[el sid]

Cuckoo, counted today for today, had not so bad 339 sold tickets in 5 of the 7 theaters (no shows in the AMCs in NY and Texas). 

Up modest 26% since yesterday. Best sales by far in the AMCs in California (207 and 63 sold tickets). 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday): In A Violent Nature (410k from previews) had in the same 5 theaters 230 sold tickets = 600k. 

The First Omen (725k) had 184 in 7 = 1.35M. 

The Strangers (1.2M) had 553 in 7 = 750k. 

And The Watchers (1M) had 251 sold tickets in 7 theaters = 1.35M. 

 

Average: 1M. 

 

Well, no bad presales in my theaters but IMO the trailer makes it look way more niche than e.g. Longlegs and it's shown in only 1.5k theaters as I read here. So maybe 700k from previews (I think that it'll have better walk-ups and WOM than In A Violent Nature). 

[Flip]

14 hours ago, Flip said:

It Ends With Us Previews (T-1) 

 

22 showtimes/717 tickets sold (+135)

 

2.21x Trap Previews (T-1) [4.86m]

1.41x Bad Boys 4 (T-1) [7.86m]
6.96x The Watchers (T-1) [6.96m]

 

Selling the exact same as yesterday with such a robust offering of Early Access is very encouraging.

It Ends With Us Previews (T-0) 

 

22 showtimes/977 tickets sold (+260)

 

2.54x Trap Previews (T-0) [5.59m]

1.35x Bad Boys 4 (T-0) [7.53m]
6.60x The Watchers (T-0) [6.60m]
 

Strong final day, especially considering demand was taken away by EA yesterday. Bad Boys comp will be lower due to ATP, so I’ll do a prediction of 6.1-6.4m for Thursday 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited August 8 by kayumanggi

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/31/2024 at 9:53 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA

 

BORDERLANDS

 

Thursday 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
365	913	75829	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-8

(0.628x) of Fall Guy $1.44M

(0.384x) of Furiosa $1.34M

Comps AVG: $1.39M

 

Looks like $1.5M if i had to guess

FLORIDA

 

BORDERLANDS

 

Thursday 

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
429	2466	86574	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

461

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.700x) of Fall Guy $1.61M

(0.483x) of Furiosa $1.69M

Comps AVG: $1.65M

 

Terrible finish, not too shocking. Calling it at $1.6M 

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
546	7188	113007	6.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

995

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-1

(0.992x) of Bad Boys $5.85M

(2.411x) of Fall Guy $5.55M

Comps AVG: $5.70M

 

Would guess $5.5M+ true Thursday. Not the best day 

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
546	9501	113007	8.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2383

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

*3 sellouts

COMPS

T-0

(0.934x) of Bad Boys $5.51M

(2.696x) of Fall Guy $6.20M

Comps AVG: $5.86M

 

Calling it at $5.8M for Thursday. With EA should be reported as $8M+

[kayumanggi]

 

[Flip]

Probably 1.3-1.5m for Borderlands 

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

Borderlands, counted today for today, had surprisingly nice 661 sold tickets (with shows in all 7 theaters). Best sales in the AMC in San Francisco (180) but it's funny, it's doing well in every region and has way more even sales than e.g. Furiosa had back then. 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): Expend4bles (750k from presales, always pure Thursday) had 276 sold tickets = 1.8M. 

TSS (4.1M) had 1.929 = 1.4M. 

Dungeons and Dragons (4.1M) had 1.265 = 2.15M. 

And Furiosa (3.5M) had 2.482 = 0.95M. 

 

Average: 1.575M. 

 

So its presales are way better than what I thought. But how much could the terrible reviews hurt?

[DAJK]

Just a reminder that The Fault in Our Stars (still, I think a good comp for this, maybe not presales wise but just comparing box office runs) did 8.2M Thursday previews, and also had a Wednesday night EA event. Went on to do 26 Friday and 48 weekend. 

 

If It Ends With Us ends up with a similar 8M previews + Wednesday, and true Friday is in the mid-teens (say, 16M) that's 24 Friday and just slightly more frontloaded than Fault, I'd say 45 would be what it's targeting. 

 

Now, Fault went on to finish at around 125, so not quite as frontloaded as its opening weekend would suggest. But it did have summer weekdays that Ends won't benefit from. I'd probably figure that a total around 100-110 where the 50 Shades sequels ended up would be a good target. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Borderlands	T-0	Jax	5	37	59	218	4,992	4.37%
		Phx	7	31	50	192	4,698	4.09%
		Ral	8	33	42	136	2,820	4.82%
	Total		20	101	151	546	12,510	4.36%
Cuckoo	T-0	Jax	5	10	32	67	634	10.57%
		Phx	6	12	35	88	1,056	8.33%
		Ral	6	12	7	36	710	5.07%
	Total		17	34	74	191	2,400	7.96%
It Ends With Us	T-0	Jax	5	45	177	650	4,586	14.17%
		Phx	6	58	176	681	6,121	11.13%
		Ral	7	54	186	987	4,835	20.41%
	Total		18	157	539	2,318	15,542	14.91%

 

It Ends With Us (Thu) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Thu) -2.4x (4.91m)

 - Creed III (Thu) - 1.794x (6.55m)

 - Elvis (Thu) - 2.01x (5.53m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 6.86x (6.33m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 2.22x (6.24m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.63m

Growth model forecast - 5.83m

 

Closing in on 6m still.  Big storm hitting east coast right now so that may affect things.  

 

Borderlands T-0 adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - .434x (1.64m)

 - Free Guy - .953x (2.18m)

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 1.14x (2.68m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .523x (1.79m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Dune - .247x (1.31m)

 - Turtles (Thu) - .48x (1.96m)

 - Meg 2 - .81x (2.75m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .921x (1.92m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.41m

Growth model forecast - 1.81m

 

2m not out of the picture.  Still thinking slightly below at 1.9m

 

Cuckoo T-0 adjusted comps

 - Men - 1.265x (548k)

 - Candyman - .369x (625k)

 - First Omen - 1.785x (1.09m)

 - Talk to Me - .499x (621k)

 - Abigail - .955x (802k)

 - The Strangers - .546x (550k)

 

Size adjusted average - 732k

Growth model forecast - 623k

 

Initial prediction is 650k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Borderlands	1-Hr	Jax	5	37	26	244	4,992	4.89%
		Phx	7	31	4	196	4,698	4.17%
		Ral	8	33	48	184	2,820	6.52%
	Total		20	101	78	624	12,510	4.99%
It Ends With Us	1-Hr	Jax	5	46	264	914	4,649	19.66%
		Phx	6	58	163	844	6,121	13.79%
		Ral	7	54	365	1,352	4,835	27.96%
	Total		18	158	792	3,110	15,605	19.93%

 

It Ends With Us (Thu) T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Thu) -2.4x (4.92m)

 - Creed III (Thu) - 1.452x (5.3m)

 - Elvis (Thu) - 1.95x (5.36m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - missed

 - Bullet Train (Thu - 2.09x (5.88m)

All drama - 5.46m

All R - 6.79m

All movies - 6.29m

 

Size adjusted average - 5.57m

Growth model forecast - 6.34m

 

A little drop final day that lowers my prediction to 5.5m.  Add in the 2mish EA for a 7.5m total.  

 

Borderlands T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Free Guy - .718x (1.64m)

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - .772x (1.81m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .42x (1.44m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Dune - .227x (1.2m)

 - Turtles (Thu) - .4x (1.63m)

 - Meg 2 - .54x (1.83m)

All action - 1.42m

All adventure - 1.61m

All PG-13 - 1.45m

All movies - 1.53m

 

Size adjusted average - 1.98m

Growth model forecast - 1.58m

 

There was a drop here too.  I'll go with 1.6m for my final prediction.

[keysersoze123]

Walkups have been solid today for It ends. That makes me hopeful for better than expected weekend run though it will be frontloaded due to the book fans rushing in to watch it early. But good news is its not dominated by coasts and big cities like most movies are. So its going to under index at MTC1 as well.  I think if west coasts also does well it will cross my targets set yesterday (120K+ and 1.65m+ at MTC1). Should be enough for 6m+ thursday alone. 

[vafrow]

I poked around on Borderlands showings, and isn't looking good. 

[misterpepp]

More dates for smaller titles:

 

Am I Racist on sale Aug 14 (I really want to make a gag here but I try to stay opinion-neutral on these!)

Strange Darling on sale Aug 13

You Gotta Believe on sale Aug 16

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows Final - 46651/106653 679524.73 906 shows  +14710

Previews(T-1) - 64260/389344 874403.32 3131 shows + 13916

Friday - 87246/629919 1174334.83 4551 shows +16943

 

Early shows did not hit what the benchmark I had set for it(50K) but its $ finish was close. Early BO around 1.8-2m range. 

 

Previews did sell well considering early shows were so wide. I think 120K is possible. 6m thursday seems likely. 

 

Friday is now looking like 120k ish finish with presales. So probably mid teens TF than late teens.  45m ish OW. 

It ends with us MTC1

Previews Final - 120232/397005 1624681.19 3226 shows +55972

Friday - 120585/638026 1613932.14 4643 shows +33339

 

It did finish strong today. MTC2 should also cross my targets(no numbers until morning). Definitely above 6m in previews as its MTC1 light due to lack of PLF plus not skewing big cities. I think if they report it together with early shows I could > 8m reported tomorrow. 25m OD with previews and mid to high 40s OW. 

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Previews Final - 120232/397005 1624681.19 3226 shows +55972

Friday - 120585/638026 1613932.14 4643 shows +33339

 

It did finish strong today. MTC2 should also cross my targets(no numbers until morning). Definitely above 6m in previews as its MTC1 light due to lack of PLF plus not skewing big cities. I think if they report it together with early shows I could > 8m reported tomorrow. 25m OD with previews and mid to high 40s OW. 

 

A $45M opening with a $25M Friday? I know this includes previews and we should expect some level of frontloadedness, but didn't you say that walk-up business was relatively strong? I feel like that would guarantee a much higher opening, unless this becomes as frontloaded as something like The Fault in Our Stars. 

[keysersoze123]

On 8/7/2024 at 12:13 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Alien: Romulus MTC1 Previews - 36765/422302 701049.47 2086 shows // includes fan show BO of 13923/31956 277056.97 171 shows

 

+5 days of update. 

Alien: Romulus MTC1

Previews - 40232/424197 763083.30 2093 shows // includes fan show BO of 14705/31956 291977.25 171 shows

Friday - 22861/598631 431669.21 2886 shows

 

Frontloaded for sure. But the fan shows are skewing the thursday number. Otherwise its not bad. I think it looks good for 40m+ OW. 

[Rorschach]

On 8/7/2024 at 11:32 PM, Rorschach said:

Borderlands (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 34/1,704 (2% sold) [+6]

3 IMAX showings: 4/1,164 

4 2D showings: 30/540 

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $1.34M

 

Friday: 67/1,586 (4.2% sold) [+16]

2 IMAX showings: 3/776

6 2D showings: 64/810

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $4.59M

 

Thurs + Fri: 101/3,290 (3.1% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $5.53M

Borderlands (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 98/1,586 (6.2% sold) [+31]

2 IMAX showings: 5/776

6 2D showings: 93/810

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $5.17M