Weekend Thread 7/28-7/30 - Barbenheimer Week 2; Barbie 93M/Oppy 46.2M - Haunted Mansion & Talk to Me OW; Mansion 24.2M, Talk 10M

[MovieMan89]

Pretty insane for Barbie to open to twice Opp, have better weekday holds, and now have a lighter 2nd weekend drop too. All despite Opp having fantastic holds itself. Barbie WOM is definitely incredible. I really have no idea how high it will go. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I like how you've just decided to stan this movie after flopping with your July predictions after going on and on about how you have a perfect prediction record

 

Ummm, okay this is a weird post.

 

Mentioning SoF's gonna be on the top 10 profitable list on the year is reality.  You can't just ignore reality b/c you don't like a movie.  I mean, if we could ignore reality on the boards,, I'd never put Ant Man 3 on the Top 10 DOM revenue list b/c it's horrid and its co-star is an alleged woman abuser, but the reality is that's it's there right now, so it is what it is.  And we talk about Ant Man 3 being in the Top 10 DOM, and don't just ignore it.  Just like we don't ignore SoF going for $200M DOM and being #6 summer DOM (since, it's looking like Barbie, Spidey, GOTG 3, Oppy, Mermaid, and then SoF without a TMNT or other breakout)...

 

And yep, I blew MI...badly.  And Barbie, well, I am in the club of just not going high enough.  Rather than a mini-gentleminions that I suspected 6 months ago, Minions 2 was a Mini-Barbie.  It is and has become an event less about the movie and more about the fashion and fun event, and that's the key to sky high...and it's there.  The sea of pink is wonderful!  And I'm happy to see that can be so dominant this summer (premier concepts winning is my favorite thing about box office:).

 

May and June were my months...July, not so much:).  3's not the charm:)...but you know, in baseball, you're an all star and HoF if you get hits 3 times out of 10.  Movie predicting - maybe it's not baseball, but it's probably close.

 

So, yes, I have got July mostly wrong.  You got what you paid for for my box office predicting:).  

 

PS - I'm not even gonna predict August, except to say I don't expect anything breaking Top 5 DOM summer, nor probably Top 6 (aka, we don't have a $200M breakout coming) - but that's almost just pointing out the obvious, so that's no big deal...

Edited July 30, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

58 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Haunted Mansion never stood a chance OS. The leads are unknown (Owen Wilson is the only name they could sell but he is a side character, and Leto is hidden in a bunch of CGI), the director isn't a name either and the visuals aren't striking or distinctive enough.

 

It also has the issue of not being kid friendly enough for kids and not adult enough for adults. OS auds were always gonna reject it.

 

Yeah, I asked a month ago if this was gonna thread the needle or miss all the audience b/c it wasn't clearly directed at any - it looks like it did the latter...

[Incarnadine]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Pretty insane for Barbie to open to twice Opp, have better weekday holds, and now have a lighter 2nd weekend drop too. All despite Opp having fantastic holds itself. Barbie WOM is definitely incredible. I really have no idea how high it will go. 

Pretty amazing that Barbie opened almost exactly 2:1 over Oppenheimer and that ratio has barely moved after 10 days, it's still just barely over the 2:1 ratio.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Incarnadine

[ThomasNicole]

I’m very happy with Barbie and Oppie, but i still think Elemental run is just as incredible to follow. 
 

At this point it’s safe to say, the movie is quietly coming for +500M WW. I don’t like the L word, but yeah, it’s very close to locked.
 

It made ~31M OS this past week, just a 6% drop. Even with Ninja Turtles coming (which won’t be huge OS), this thing is unstoppable, not even Barbenheimmer killed it.
 

Unless it unusually start to have big drops, with 31M OS this past week, it’s probably going to get another 105-110M in current markets, which already put the movie at 500M. 
 

And it still have 12-15M left DOM and Japan to open (which even if doesn’t overperform can bring at least another 10-15M). 
 

Honestly, depending on Japan, it will actually ended up with +550M. But even now, it’s still hard to project the finish for this movie, is just this fun to follow. The safest bet is that yes, 500M is happening.
 

This is really insane for a movie that had all the headlines calling it the biggest disaster of the year and of the history of Pixar when it opened. Truly an insanely good run.

[Eric is Quiet]

43 minutes ago, Chaz said:

Everybody loves Newman. 

Ehh. I mean "You've Got a Friend in Me" is a classic, but I feel his music might not be everybody's cup of tea.

[redfirebird2008]

Variety said Oppy would need $400M to become profitable. Quite amazing that it got there in 10 days, given the subject matter and lack of action sequences. It’s all icing on the cake for Universal & Nolan moving forward. Hopefully $700+ million in the end. 

[KeepItU25071906]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I’m very happy with Barbie and Oppie, but i still think Elemental run is just as incredible to follow. 

May be, it will help to recover Pixar brand eventually.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

Variety said Oppy would need $400M to become profitable. Quite amazing that it got there in 10 days, given the subject matter and lack of action sequences. It’s all icing on the cake for Universal & Nolan moving forward. Hopefully $700+ million in the end. 

That is too conservative. its taking out Inception WW at this point. Korea PS has already shown its going to be a huge breakout and as Charlie had said, Blockbuster success in India points to similar run in korea/china. 

 

Crazy China(I am not predicting it) run would keep 1B WW in play !!!

[MovieMan89]

RE: TwoMisfits, I’m not sure why some here get so hung up on box office predicting having to be so specific/error proof? It’s not like it is for really any of us. I think it should be far more about how did you nail the overall box office “story” / what were your predictions like vs general expectations. For example, this year I’ve had that A2 would have insane legs starting at Christmas after a bleak first week, that Mario and Barbie would be massive phenomenons way before most thought that was even a fever dream, that Shazam would be a low for CBMs we hadn’t seen in decades, AM3 a low for modern MCU, Flash and Indy as highly likely bombs, etc.

 

I consider all of those huge prediction wins, even if I messed up numbers, got carried away in some instances (I.e. I 100% thought Mario was locked to go over I2 after OW, didn’t see late legs being so awful). My big missed this year are saying GotG3 “couldn’t” go above a 2.6-2.7x multi and that Transformers would be an epic sub 250 bomb. Idk, overall I think I’m doing pretty good this year and I’m not sure why some act like their track record is so spotless. 

[Bob Train]

Elemental is done domestically, only has like 10m more in the tank with Turtles coming up. OS will need to do 95m more to get it to 500m, not sure it will happen. We'll see how it holds next weekend. Even if it doesn't, still a great run.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Bob Train

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Elemental is done domestically, only has like 10m more in the tank with Turtles coming up. OS will need to do 95m more to get it to 500m, not sure it will happen. We'll see how it holds next weekend. Even if it doesn't, still a great run.

Considering for awhile it looked like 200/500 was actually in the cards though, as I mentioned yesterday, I think it was benefiting from no direct comp way more than most want to admit. 

[AniNate]

Elemental's probably gonna get the traditional Labor Day reexpansion which should help it out a bit

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Considering for awhile it looked like 200/500 was actually in the cards though, as I mentioned yesterday, I think it was benefiting from no direct comp way more than most want to admit. 

 

I mean 200m was like the super optimistic domestic prediction, and it does still very much have a shot at 500m worldwide.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

I mean 200m was like the super optimistic domestic prediction, and it does still very much have a shot at 500m worldwide.

It has that much left OS? Seems like a lot this late in 

 

With the holds it was having a few weeks ago, it did kinda look like it was on a path to the 190s or so. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by MovieMan89

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Barbie has a chance at becoming WB’s biggest movie ever and Oppenheimer has a chance at being Nolan’s biggest non-Batman movie ever.

 

After a summer full of disappointments, and with an Uncertain next few months ahead, this is just incredible to see.

[lilmac]

Based solely on this weekend alone here's where the ultimate Domestic grosses are tracking towards:

 

Barbie - $567M

Oppenheimer - $279M

Sound of Freedom - $183M

Mission Impossible 7 - $163M

Dial of Destiny - $177M

Elemental - $153M

Insidious: Red Door - $84M

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse - $382M

[AniNate]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It has that much left OS? Seems like a lot this late in 

 

It hasn't released in Japan yet and only dropped like 14% worldwide the past week. The only question now is if it can withstand Ninja Turtles.

 

And I still think it can get to 160m domestically, it's been holding better on the weekdays recently and honestly has still had a pretty decent hold here given the loss of screens. Even if it might take another major hit this week because of Turtle hype, that's the last competition it really has to deal with for the rest of its run.

Edited July 30, 2023 by AniNate

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It has that much left OS? Seems like a lot this late in 

 

It did 40M globally this week, 31M from OS this week, minimal 6% drop compared to past week. All of this with Barbie being a total juggernaut, something Ninja Turtles won’t be.
 

Another 104M worldwide coming off 40M is not only possible, but very likely. It keeps getting insane small drops OS, still have Japan to open and 10-15M left DOM.

DOM is hurted for sure by lack of screens and showtimes, it didn’t came this far due lack of competition. 
 

But globally yeah 500M is happening, no way to spin this.

[Jiffy]

It is funny how Oppy/Barbie continue to mirror each other, although that OS drop for Oppy is phenomenal.