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By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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emoviefan Box Office Gold

emoviefan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, John Marston said:

two movies that could have benefitted from coming out now than when they were released 

 

MV5BNTdiYmVkM2YtM2RhMi00Nzc4LWE0ODQtNWE4

 

 

MV5BNzI5OTE3M2QtOWZhZi00NjQ3LWI0ZmMtNzUy

 

 

 

This would have been a great weekend to rerelease and market DR Part 1 get a little extra money but Paramount gonna Paramount and it's out of theaters completely. 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/22/2023 at 6:36 PM, John Marston said:

two movies that could have benefitted from coming out now than when they were released 

 

MV5BNTdiYmVkM2YtM2RhMi00Nzc4LWE0ODQtNWE4

 

 

MV5BNzI5OTE3M2QtOWZhZi00NjQ3LWI0ZmMtNzUy

 

I understand this sentiment, but there is a reason why September and October are usually devoid of big releases: the Fall weekdays are terrible and really cut down overall grossing potential, plus major eyeball competition with America's Sport (football) on the weekends. The count of $150M grossing films to have ever released in September stands at FOUR* - one of which was Shang-Chi, only getting that slot because of the pandemic schedule shuffling - and only 6 have ever reached even $130M. That's not an accident

 

Oh, but the competition is soft, so legs are better! Ok, a couple of Examples of legs:

  • IT = $158.7M OWeek / $327.5M total = 2.06x
  • Shang-Chi = $109.8M OWeek / $224.5M total = 2.04x
  • Kingsman 3 = $49.7M OWeek / $100.2M total = 2.02x

 

So in theory, if MI7 had the same OWeek gross as it did in July ($91.1M), with those kind of limited competition legs, would have been expected to make ~$185M, or (only) ~$10M more

... BUT, without those sweet summer weekdays, it probably opens a bit softer, ~$85M or so for the first week and ends up pretty much exactly where it is now!

 

Did Oppenheimer cut into MI7's its legs? Absolutely. But this film just didn't have $200M worth of demand no matter what date is was released, and its well past time to just accept that reality. Same with D&D, which netted a 1.95x OWeek from its March release, and maybe in the weaker Fall squeaks over $100M, but likely not much more than that

 

*Correction: its actually 6 over $150M all-time, but the two initially missed opened to under $10M back in 1986 (Crocodile Dundee) and 1987 (Fatal Attraction), which is not really relevant to the modern box office

Edited by M37
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Arlborn Global Phenomenon

Arlborn

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, M37 said:

I understand this sentiment, but there is a reason why September and October are usually devoid of big releases: the Fall weekdays are terrible and really cut down overall grossing potential, plus major eyeball competition with America's Sport (football) on the weekends. The count of $150M grossing films to have ever released in September stands at FOUR - one of which was Shang-Chi, only getting that slot because of the pandemic schedule shuffling - and only 6 have ever reached even $130M. That's not an accident

 

Oh, but the competition is soft, so legs are better! Ok, a couple of Examples of legs:

  • IT = $158.7M OWeek / $327.5M total = 2.06x
  • Shang-Chi = $109.8M OWeek / $224.5M total = 2.04x
  • Kingsman 3 = $49.7M OWeek / $100.2M total = 2.02x

 

So in theory, if MI7 had the same OWeek gross as it did in July ($91.1M), with those kind of limited competition legs, would have been expected to make ~$185M, or (only) ~$10M more

... BUT, without those sweet summer weekdays, it probably opens a bit softer, ~$85M or so for the first week and ends up pretty much exactly where it is now!

 

Did Oppenheimer cut into MI7's its legs? Absolutely. But this film just didn't have $200M worth of demand no matter what date is was released, and its well past time to just accept that reality. Same with D&D, which netted a 1.95x OWeek from its March release, and maybe in the weaker Fall squeaks over $100M, but likely not much more than that

I mean, I’m yeah, but I really wanted 100M for D&D… It feels like precisely the kind of arbitrary cut off number that talent can go to the executives and say: “see? This did over 100M! It has potential, green light a sequel and marketed right it can really explode!”

 

Chris Pine Im Saying GIF by Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

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