9/29-10/1 Weekend Thread

[Roxanne]

Woman King hit 19M off 1.7M previews at 3PM (11.2x IM) around this time last year and Venice just did 11.9x. Creator can still hit 20M. It's probably over for Saw X though, that's gonna play exactly like Jigsaw did and I shouldn't have gotten my hopes up there.

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, Eric the Creator said:

Cap brought up a good point earlier this week where having the movie being about protecting and saving an AI robot feels a little out of touch when so many of us are worried about AI replacing writers and actors and other sectors and industries. Which like…I don’t think that’s the main culprit, but it does kind of feel a tad awkward in hindsight, especially when the best, most successful sci-fi is designed to either be escapist or politically forward. Or in some cases both.

A.I is a big issue but frankly the goose is already cooked. People can order their bullshit on Amazon and get a pizza on UberEats and watch the boob tube on streaming without ever leaving their house. The only things that will survive are the things that people can't get at home (yet) - concerts, escape rooms, axe throwing, etc. You think movie theaters are a failure? Wait until you see what happens to every shopping plaza and mall taking up space in America. I actually disagree with the common "humans are social creatures" thing people say - I just don't know if people quite understand how significantly generations younger than me (30) have been socialized for this to be normal. We are going to be a in a very, very bad place soon.

 

Ted Clayzynski in the house.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Eric is Quiet]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Frankly, I don't think you or even I are pessimistic enough. I'd say cascading series of collapse in theater industry due to inability to turn a profit is going to happen, and once the big structural dominoes fall, there won't be any coming back. I'd say around early next year we get an announcement of mass closures of 200+ AMC and Regals, which leads to a run on stock and then a total bankruptcy and collapse of the movie theater industry. That's my honest prediction for sometime in the near future - though I won't make any promises on exactly when.

Okay let’s not go that far. There have been a few theater closures here and there, but the big chains are still doing fine enough with the big events. And even bombs like Indy or M:I or Transformers still made 170M, which is still a good amount of revenue for theaters that don’t get impacted by these overinflated studio budgets. Theatrical might not be as big as it was before, but there’s not gonna be any epic collapse.

 

And coming from a fellow doomer and gloomer, that says a lot right there.

[Jsmitty]

Creator wise. Ad Astra did 1.5 previews and 19 OW as a comp. 50 million domestic.

 

Slightly less here?

 

Like wise Saw X, Jigsaw did 16.6 OW on 1.6 previews and 38 domestic. So 20 OW/45 possible it seems. 
 

I still Think Paw Patrol takes the weekend by the narrowest of margins….

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Eric the Creator said:

Okay let’s not go that far. There have been a few theater closures here and there, but the big chains are still doing fine enough with the big events. And even bombs like Indy or M:I or Transformers still made 170M, which is still a good amount of revenue for theaters that don’t get impacted by these overinflated studio budgets. Theatrical might not be as big as it was before, but there’s not gonna be any epic collapse.

 

And coming from a fellow doomer and gloomer, that says a lot right there.

I absolutely may have been reactionary on the timeline, but whether it is 2024 or 2034, people are becoming more and more conditioned each and every year not to watch movies in theaters. Sure, Indy could make 170 this year. By 2030, it ain't making 70.

[Krissykins]

Saw X could have Jigsaw’s IM which would mean $20.4m, but it’s a few films later and I’m guessing it’ll be even more frontloaded. But maybe with walk ups and the great reviews could help. 
 

Not a good week for The Creator, critically or commercially. 
 

I’m guessing Paw Patrol will be #1. It’s still an interesting weekend, as we still don’t know for sure which film will get the top spot. 

[filmlover]

Original sci-fi has always been a dicey proposition (even some certified classics in the genre like the OG Blade Runner flopped at the box office upon release) so the soft numbers for The Creator don't come across as any surprise. I'm going to see the movie but I dunno...it does look very "been there, done that" aside from the visuals, which will automatically tamper enthusiasm for a movie.

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I don’t know how any sci-fi fan worth their salt isn’t going to see The Creator this weekend. I mean, Christ. 
 

Very depressing preview number. 

 

It's under Disney corporate - I can't remember the last time they got their viewers out to their non-franchise movies.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Not very surprising results for both. The Creator was always a tough sell by the nature of what it was, and the review scores being subpar was the final kiss of death. Funnily enough, I was planning on seeing it today, but the theater I went to requires at least two people in any given screening for them to actually go through with one, and since no one else bought a ticket beforehand, the screening I was aiming for never happened. It's a stupid policy, but I'll see it in another theater near me tomorrow instead. But yeah, Gareth Edwards will probably be heading into director's jail when all is said and done.

 

Saw X is just good old franchise fatigue. Plain and simple. Jigsaw and Spiral poisoned the well quite badly, and the franchise already went out on a bad note with Saw 3D back in 2010. Though if it weren't for all the failed soft reboots, then I imagine this one would be huge given the raves from those who have seen it. But as we've seen with Indy 5, audiences remember and hold grudges, and the last bad movie was only a couple of years ago. Saw is likely done in theaters, and it'll probably rebooted as a shitty Starz series in around 5 years.

[Maggie]

MI:DR should have released this weekend

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Saw X could have Jigsaw’s IM which would mean $20.4m, but it’s a few films later and I’m guessing it’ll be even more frontloaded. But maybe with walk ups and the great reviews could help. 
 

Not a good week for The Creator, critically or commercially. 
 

I’m guessing Paw Patrol will be #1. It’s still an interesting weekend, as we still don’t know for sure which film will get the top spot. 

 

I'm thinking Saw X has the Halloween season boost...and it's been a few weeks since another horror opened, so it may win by default for being seasonal, having a Thursday preview, and charging adult tickets for almost all its seats.

 

So, I'd put Saw X over Paw Patrol in a squeaker...

Edited September 29, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Pinacolada]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

MI:DR should have released this weekend

No it should've released in September/October of 2022 as it was originally slated. Would've cleaned the fuck up

Edited September 29, 2023 by Pinacolada

[ChipDerby]

34 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I don’t know how any sci-fi fan worth their salt isn’t going to see The Creator this weekend. I mean, Christ. 
 

Very depressing preview number. 

 

I'll see it eventually, most likely at home. It could've drawn me in with a more interesting lead actor. 

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, Valencia said:

Nobody’s going to take a chance on mid films with 2023 ticket prices and concessions now.

 

You can watch mid movies for free on streaming.

 

If it’s not exceptional you can’t expect GA to turn out.

 

This, 1000%.

[Eric is Quiet]

23 minutes ago, Valencia said:

Nobody’s going to take a chance on mid films with 2023 ticket prices and concessions now.

 

You can watch mid movies for free on streaming.

 

If it’s not exceptional you can’t expect GA to turn out.

The Mario movie made 1.3 billion dollars.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Eric the Creator said:

The Mario movie made 1.3 billion dollars.

That was a brand film.  Which was the point - no one is taking chances on mid, non-branded non-franchise films for $20 ticket/person.

 

Thus, why MTC 1 WILDLY overindexed for the Creator - the folks who weren't paying directly (aka the subscribers) nor paying full price, are mostly all who showed up in the end for The Creator.

Edited September 29, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[ChipDerby]

I'm not going doom and gloom because The freaking Creator looks to be underwhelming at the box office. It had very little going for it at all. Yeah, it's a bummer it's not opening to like $25-30 mil. Ender's Game 10 years ago was based off a huge book, had a killer director, and only opened to $27 mil. I mean, Elysium only opened to $29 mil and that had Matt Damon and was the follow up to District 9!

 

It's not the end of the world.

[WorkingonaName]

MFs really saying cinema is dead right after Barbieheimer.  

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

MFs really saying cinema is dead right after Barbieheimer.  

 

More after having the lowest box office of the entire year this week, and not really recovering much into the weekend...

[CoolioD1]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

More after having the lowest box office of the entire year this week, and not really recovering much into the weekend...

it is not uncommon for september to have "the lowest box office of the entire year."

Edited September 29, 2023 by CoolioD1