Weekend Thread (11/17-19) | Early Deadline #s - Songbirds 5.75-6M Previews, Trolls 2M

[Hatebox]

Maybe I’m old but I still find it impossible to care about audience scores. The only interesting part is how much more they’re talked about now. The nice thing about box office is it tends to have the final word on success. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

 

It's a pretty neolib analysis though. The genre started collapsing before Trump became president.

Yeah, Hunger Games had already fizzled out because of an underwhelming and pointlessly split finale by the time Flamin' Hot came into power.

 

Anyway, color me surprised at the updated Hunger Games and Trolls projections being sizable improvements over the earlier tracking. $50M and $30M respectively aren't bad openings for the aforementioned has-been brands at all.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

5 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Maybe I’m old but I still find it impossible to care about audience scores. The only interesting part is how much more they’re talked about now. The nice thing about box office is it tends to have the final word on success. 

Does it, though?

The Marvels is getting massacred at the Box Office, but in the past week it's been full steam ahead on Fantastic Four and Thunderbolts news.

Death on the Nile didn't makes its money back theatrically, and yet we still got A Haunting in Venice.

[Borobudur]

If that 100m sticks, 50m OW is actually quite a respectable start for HG, and this already the 2nd best OW for Lionsgate post-Covid after JW4.

[George Parr]

1 hour ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Does it, though?

The Marvels is getting massacred at the Box Office, but in the past week it's been full steam ahead on Fantastic Four and Thunderbolts news.

Death on the Nile didn't makes its money back theatrically, and yet we still got A Haunting in Venice.

I think those are two completely seperate topics.

The former is about contradicting people who claim that a movie is badly received by pointing at all the people who went to see it. If it was oh so disliked, the box office would have been a failure. Indicating that a certain bunch of people is trying to push an agenda against a movie. Or the other way round, of course. Basically, the difference in reception between those who talk about the movie and those who don't. The general audience is unlikely to engage much in such debates, which which leaves the debate being driven by minority opinions.

 

The other topic is studios still deciding to release further movies from the same franchise. For that you don't necessarily need the prior installment to have been a big hit.  There can be a whole range of reasons why you would do another one, even if the last installment seemingly didn't do well at the box office.

 

 

I don't think there is much of an issue between the reception among critics and the reception among audiences. Critics - in general- are trying to gauge whether a movie is good or not, for the most part they will be having higher standards than the average movie-goer, who is just looking to have a nice time for two hours or so. This can turn on its head when it comes to hardcore fans in big franchises. There, fans can rage-quit because the creatives dared to do something with the characters the fan doesn't agree with, while a critic will have little issue with that as long as it makes sense. Things get muddied if the critic is a big fan himself though.

[Mulder]

I think trying to use box office or critical reception to justify a movie being good or not is just kind of goofy. Like what you like and if you feel the need to defend a movie's honor, just use your own opinion. Never got people who need to have some kind of objective backbone to this stuff. 

[Torontofan]

You guys have it all wrong

 

The major draw od the hunger games was a movie about a tournament fought to the death by teens and kids 

 

It was spectacle we had not seen in blockbuster cinema.

 

Once that was out the franchise people stopped caring.

[Noctis]

If Mockingjay had been a single film, not only would it have been the highest grossing film of the year, but it would have outgrossed CF.

 

 

[Cap]

4 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Books adaptations being all the rage leads to comic book adaptation being all the rage leads to video game adaptations being all the rage.

 

I think the pattern is less reading

And before books it was plays being all the rage.  I think it’s less reading (also find it insulting that comics is “less reading”) and more what’s popular at the time. 

[Eric is Quiet]

5 hours ago, DAJK said:

Perhaps it’s just me being Canadian and not having lived in America, but this feels like a weird take. YA dystopia being “dated” nowadays really doesn’t seem to be the root of the issue at all as to why the genre fell off.

My case is basically this. I'm mainly using Hunger Games, but you can also apply to this to your Divergents and Maze Runners.

 

YA dystopia is in a bizarre no man’s land in the world of 2023, because there's no real hook or appeal. It doesn’t work as an escapist blockbuster, because its focus on a dystopian hellscape and evil governments hits too close to home when fascism and right-wing hysteria is all over the place. These kinds of stories involve the world being devastated by evil governments taking control and manipulating people and controlling the masses or climate change causing total devastation or some other bad third thing. That is happening right now. So making a fun action blockbuster out of such depressing world events doesn't really resonate when everything is miserable and bad, corrupt politicans and governments are all over the place. The YA dystopia boom largely happened around the time of the Obama years, when it seemed like things were progressing and "Yes We Can" was everywhere.

 

And sure, Star Wars or Avatar do the same story, but at least the space battles and otherworldly locations in their settings can help you divorce yourself from their real world parallels. At least you want to live in those worlds, swing a lightsaber, or become a sexy blue cat person. Nobody wants to live in The Hunger Games' world. So if you want to enjoy this as a turn your brain off, "wouldn't it be cool if I was there" movie, it's kinda hard to do that.

 

But at the same time, Hunger Games is also largely simplistic in its politics and writing, being aimed at teenagers, that it fails to emotionally resonate with the current political situation, which is a lot more nuanced than what these movies achieve. I rewatched the movies over the past few days, and I largely liked them fine. But even if you do like them, it's hard to say they are really Fahrenheit 451-level material or really tackle anything all that in depth about dystopia and how it relates to the real world. Handmaid’s Tale is a stupid show, but its concept is seeped into the current issues within feminism that it helps make it feel like an "important" or "powerful" watch and still feels weirdly grounded enough where it feels like this is a scenario where it could happen.

 

So it’s too sad to watch as an escapist turn your brain off blockbuster, but also too goofy and simple as a "this is the moment" piece of filmmaking. Therefore, you end up with a franchise that has nothing to offer in the current political climate and has no reason to exist. It's like how 24 or The West Wing are products of their time and feel dated today. That's not a bad thing, and it's easy to get enjoyment out of "of their time" media even if you're years past something. But it does mean that their audience is a lot more limited compared to a few years ago and it's not as easy to reboot it for a new generation, unless you really give it a modern spin. And at least judging by the trailers, I don't think Songbirds really did that, though maybe the movie itself is a different story.

 

So yeah...that's what I'm getting at. I also cribbed some of this from a great YouTube video essay about the rise and fall of 2010s YA, which I largely agree with, and I think anybody into this stuff should give a watch.

 

 

[Kon]

2 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Does it, though?

The Marvels is getting massacred at the Box Office, but in the past week it's been full steam ahead on Fantastic Four and Thunderbolts news.

Death on the Nile didn't makes its money back theatrically, and yet we still got A Haunting in Venice.

 

Well, although these movies belong to the same franchise, they would be different from the bomb movies (even different characters). So, the studios are trying something different.

 

Still, the point was the box office tend to indicate whether the movie is a success because a good box office tend to show people are interested on the movie. Not to mention that the good box office make it profitable for the studios.

 

 

PS: That said, we're currently seeing a big bomb in The Marvels, which is the sequel of Captain Marvel (1B box office movie). 

[Torontofan]

7 minutes ago, Eric Gray Baird said:

My case is basically this. I'm mainly using Hunger Games, but you can also apply to this to your Divergents and Maze Runners.

 

YA dystopia is in a bizarre no man’s land in the world of 2023, because there's no real hook or appeal. It doesn’t work as an escapist blockbuster, because its focus on a dystopian hellscape and evil governments hits too close to home when fascism and right-wing hysteria is all over the place. These kinds of stories involve the world being devastated by evil governments taking control and manipulating people and controlling the masses or climate change causing total devastation or some other bad third thing. That is happening right now. So making a fun action blockbuster out of such depressing world events doesn't really resonate when everything is miserable and bad, corrupt politicans and governments are all over the place. The YA dystopia boom largely happened around the time of the Obama years, when it seemed like things were progressing and "Yes We Can" was everywhere.

 

And sure, Star Wars or Avatar do the same story, but at least the space battles and otherworldly locations in their settings can help you divorce yourself from their real world parallels. At least you want to live in those worlds, swing a lightsaber, or become a sexy blue cat person. Nobody wants to live in The Hunger Games' world. So if you want to enjoy this as a turn your brain off, "wouldn't it be cool if I was there" movie, it's kinda hard to do that.

 

But at the same time, Hunger Games is also largely simplistic in its politics and writing, being aimed at teenagers, that it fails to emotionally resonate with the current political situation, which is a lot more nuanced than what these movies achieve. I rewatched the movies over the past few days, and I largely liked them fine. But even if you do like them, it's hard to say they are really Fahrenheit 451-level material or really tackle anything all that in depth about dystopia and how it relates to the real world. Handmaid’s Tale is a stupid show, but its concept is seeped into the current issues within feminism that it helps make it feel like an "important" or "powerful" watch and still feels weirdly grounded enough where it feels like this is a scenario where it could happen.

 

So it’s too sad to watch as an escapist turn your brain off blockbuster, but also too goofy and simple as a "this is the moment" piece of filmmaking. Therefore, you end up with a franchise that has nothing to offer in the current political climate and has no reason to exist. It's like how 24 or The West Wing are products of their time and feel dated today. That's not a bad thing, and it's easy to get enjoyment out of "of their time" media even if you're years past something. But it does mean that their audience is a lot more limited compared to a few years ago and it's not as easy to reboot it for a new generation, unless you really give it a modern spin. And at least judging by the trailers, I don't think Songbirds really did that, though maybe the movie itself is a different story.

 

So yeah...that's what I'm getting at. I also cribbed some of this from a great YouTube video essay about the rise and fall of 2010s YA, which I largely agree with, and I think anybody into this stuff should give a watch.

 

 

 

 

None of the Teen Dystopia films did that well apart from Hunger Games whose hook was Batte Royale with Teens.

 

Once the The Hunger Games films focused on revolution they lost interest with audiences cause that is not really interesting.

 

So I would argue audiences never really cared for the politics of Teenage Dystopia films and more for a hook or spectacle. 

 

I dont really think most audiences are politically minded as yourself.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2023 by Torontofan

[Mulder]

14 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

 

None of the Teen Dystopia films did that well apart from Hunger Games whose hook was Batte Royale with Teens.

 

Once the The Hunger Games films focused on revolution they lost interest with audiences cause that is not really interesting.

 

So I would argue audiences never really cared for the politics of Teenage Dystopia films and more for a hook or spectacle. 

 

I dont really think most audiences are politically minded as yourself.

 

 

 

 

This stuff isn't like actively thought of, but fighting a government and being in a dystopia becomes less fun if that's the mindset the target audience (teenagers) have. Yes nothing was ever quite as big as Hunger Games but quite a few of them did well enough (Divergent for example) and the impact wasn't just movie wise, this genre died in YA books as well. A lot of things cause fatigue, and analyzing how real world events impact audience tastes is one of the most interesting things about looking at box office honestly. Not sure why a lot of people in this thread would rather just view it in a boring conventional lens but.

[Eric is Quiet]

15 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

 

None of the Teen Dystopia films did that well apart from Hunger Games whose hook was Batte Royale with Teens.

 

Once the The Hunger Games films focused on revolution they lost interest with audiences cause that is not really interesting.

 

So I would argue audiences never really cared for the politics of Teenage Dystopia films and more for a hook or spectacle. 

 

I dont really think most audiences are politically minded as yourself.

 

 

 

 

I mean Divergent and Maze Runner still made pretty pennies in their heydays and were successful. Not Hunger Games-level, but that's like saying Daredevil wasn't a hit because Spider-Man grossed more money.

[Torontofan]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

This stuff isn't like actively thought of, but fighting a government and being in a dystopia becomes less fun if that's the mindset the target audience (teenagers) have. Yes nothing was ever quite as big as Hunger Games but quite a few of them did well enough (Divergent for example) and the impact wasn't just movie wise, this genre died in YA books as well. A lot of things cause fatigue, and analyzing how real world events impact audience tastes is one of the most interesting things about looking at box office honestly. Not sure why a lot of people in this thread would rather just view it in a boring conventional lens but.

 

or it could be the audiences it appealed to where no longer teens as well. 

[Torontofan]

6 minutes ago, Eric Gray Baird said:

I mean Divergent and Maze Runner still made pretty pennies in their heydays and were successful. Not Hunger Games-level, but that's like saying Daredevil wasn't a hit because Spider-Man grossed more money.

 

I think the arguement is more Dystopia films had a  limited appeal and its audience grew older and the Hunger Games had mass appeal due to the battle Royale concept. 

 

I feel avg audiences dont really view films politically much. 

Young people love the Nolan Batman movies even though they are very conservative minded. Cause to most of the audience they dont care about that stuff but liked the character story and visuals. 

Edited November 18, 2023 by Torontofan

[Kon]

36 minutes ago, Mulder said:

This stuff isn't like actively thought of, but fighting a government and being in a dystopia becomes less fun if that's the mindset the target audience (teenagers) have. Yes nothing was ever quite as big as Hunger Games but quite a few of them did well enough (Divergent for example) and the impact wasn't just movie wise, this genre died in YA books as well. A lot of things cause fatigue, and analyzing how real world events impact audience tastes is one of the most interesting things about looking at box office honestly. Not sure why a lot of people in this thread would rather just view it in a boring conventional lens but.

 

I think you could notice most YA Dystopian fans don't seem to care so much about the political aspect. The political situation was mainly about putting the protagonist in a complicated situation.

 

I think the spectacle (and romance) was the most popular aspects in the YA Dystopian.

 

 

In Divergent, the factions that teenagers need to choose and the tests to be accepted were likely the most interesting for the audience.

Edited November 18, 2023 by Kon

[Johnny Tran]

in what world would a 74% 2nd weekend drop be considered good?  People sound giddy over the $3.5M number. 

[Torontofan]

10 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm optimistic that as streaming services get pricier and we get further from COVID with inflation dropping, we will see something of a comeback of speciality and adult releases. We already saw some bump this year, and with a few more years of investment, we can build some of that adult audience back. But my lord, look at the big movies! People keep saying these numbers are great for prequels and unecessary animated sequels. Next year's entire slate is fucking prequels and shitty sequels! People can smell a whiff of cynical corporate bullshit on even the hits like IO2 and Deadpool, much less the rest of the crap. The big movies are going to need a major rethinking because the audience clearly has sequelitis and tapped out on current IPs.

You say this but the biggest hits post covid are nostalgia fest like Top Gun and No way Home lol 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

7 hours ago, Blue35 said:

YA fell off because the hunger games books and movies were legitimately good, and then a bunch of mediocre knockoffs came and turned people off of YA.

 

Divergent, which was successful enough for a YA franchise if not at the elite level, got ahead of itself with high budgets and a split finale move that spectacularly backfired. And everyone besides Lionsgate saw it coming...

 

 

7 hours ago, John Marston said:

Still can’t believe the first two Hunger Games outgrossed all the Potter movies domestically. So weird 

With inflation I think the first Harry Potter is up there with The Hunger Games 1 if not Catching Fire. Potter has a massive fanbase but hit a ceiling as a fantasy movie with magic and kid protagonists. They grow up but Harry Potter will forever be "the boy wizard".

 

The Hunger Games had teen leads but played by young adults, it was sci-fi but not "everyone does spells", and the games themselves were appealing to casual fans. But general audience types can move on with time and get the Battle Royale fix from the next big thing.

Edited November 18, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl