Weekend Thread (11/17-19) | Early Deadline #s - Songbirds 5.75-6M Previews, Trolls 2M

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, Sckathian said:

The big question for Apes is does it retain its existing audience which I think is a big ask considering the time between films but also the third simply failed to achieve that.

 

The tone can be all the more audience friendly as they like but the numbers are pretty tight from 3 already. I think they will have a mountain to climb due to fan response to the third one - you’ve got to knock out a banger to get them onboard for an additional trilogy.

 

Does the 4th Apes actually require you to know what happened in the earlier trilogy?  B/c if it does, mark that one down as another probable miss for 2024.  The under 25 set is gonna pass, and there's not enough over 25 to make the movie go that high...

[elothar]

12 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Just got out of Hunger Games. I don't understand the mixed reviews at all! It's easily the best of the franchise. It is so good. Zegler's performance reminded me why I fell in love with her in West Side Story to begin with.

 

It is shot beautifully, I think there's a lot of really nice editing choices, I thought the music was beautiful, I liked that it wasn't cliche YA crap like the shit in the original movies.

 

I really gotta say I'm dumbfounded why this was received the way it was.

3rd act is far from great and it's unfortunately the last thing you saw. First 2 are incredible though !

[Torontofan]

13 hours ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Newer movie stars in general really lack charisma. Hollywood and casting agents are dropping the ball big time. 

 

 

100% also older actors more can seperate their movie personas from their Personal selves.

 

Today actor dont do that as much.. whatever they feel personally is how the want to act like in movies. 

Pretty much method acting is going out the window. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Torontofan

[Sckathian]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Does the 4th Apes actually require you to know what happened in the earlier trilogy?  B/c if it does, mark that one down as another probable miss for 2024.  The under 25 set is gonna pass, and there's not enough over 25 to make the movie go that high...

They are selling it as a new trilogy and most of the films can be enjoyed as stand alone so suspect it will be fine but there are characters/story lines which go throughout.

[Grebacio]

19 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Fine some bad news now 

 

 

 

 

[M37]

17 hours ago, M37 said:

Interestingly, I actually looked at exactly this data point, the 50th highest grossing film of each year, a while back, using the year of release. It was steadily in the ~$50-$70M range pre-COVID, though with the box office becoming more top heavy in the 2010s, the market share of that film was steadily in decline for nearly a decade, down to about 0.50%. As the top movies got bigger, that lower middle tier did not grow similarly

 

 

POST-COVID 50th Films

2021 - Green Knight $17.2M (0.38%)

2022 - Marry Me $22.4M (0.30%)

2023 - Currently 65 $32.1 (0.40%)

 

The value of that 50th slot will change over the rest of the year (starting Monday when Trolls jumps over that mark), but so will the total gross market share.  Something like $43M (Creator or Venice) would be my guess, but probably pretty close to that 0.50% market share. Which means the 50th place film for 2023 is still performing in line with the overall box office of the 5 years pre-COVID ... its just that the domestic market has reduced from $11B+ to somewhere around $8 billion annually.

This post generated far more attention that I expected, so wanted to do a follow-up. First, given there are 52 weeks in a year, and at least 1-2 usually not having a major/wide release, I chose the 50th place films as an approximation for an average/the median wide release film

Cleaned up the presentation of the original chart a bit, and adding a line for the rolling 3-year average for the market share.  With that, it becomes far more clear that after holding steady at ~0.625% (1/160) through 2014, the share begins to dip and falls all the way to 0.50% (1/200) by 2019. My ballpark estimates for rest of the years expects that the final value for 2023 will land in that same 0.50% range

 

 

So what changed? Disney blew up, as 2015 saw them kick off both their Star Wars run with Force Awakens, and the first of their Live Action remakes in Cinderella.  Can see below how over the last 5 years pre-pandemic when the overall domestic box office grew to well over $11 Billion, that was entirely driven by Disney's success with the MCU, Star Wars, and their family product (LA, Pixar & WDAS). The non-Disney box office portion actually declined from a peak in 2009-2013 of just over $9B, down to a 3-year average of $8.35B and a just $7.62B for calendar year 2019 (where Disney had 7 of the top 8 grossing films, with an assist on #7)

 

Note: Disney share shown does NOT include titles listed as Fox, though they are under the Disney umbrella

 

Tl;dr - Disney's success appears to have covered up a general weakness in the box office, and now that Star Wars is on hiatus, their family product has fallen off, and the MCU is no longer a juggernaut - plus the whole pandemic thing - that overall weakness is becoming more apparent.  [Particularly when converting to admissions instead of ATP-inflated grosses]

 

The good news is that we've seen a few unlikely candidates fill that void - TGM, Mario, Barbie - but still have some work to do, especially as the strike delays limit potential over the next year. Probably won't be until 2025 that we can a "true" sense of the state of the box office (if its not too late by then ...)

[PlatnumRoyce]

dumb question: how do you include original screenshots in posts in the vein of @M37's various great stuff?

[M37]

1 minute ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

dumb question: how do you include original screenshots in posts in the vein of @M37's various great stuff?

I use Imgur, where you can upload and generate a link to use in these threads (or ImgBB if I’m doing something quick from my phone) 

 

I’ve always been a visual leaner, and find it easier to communicate in graphics rather than just words 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Probably won't be until 2025 that we can a "true" sense of the state of the box office (if its not too late by then ...)

Unless SAG members decide to vote 'no' on the new contract and go back on strike at the beginning of 2024.

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Unless SAG members decide to vote 'no' on the new contract and go back on strike at the beginning of 2024.

They won't. Don't worry. 

[Torontofan]

One thing I noticed how few films reach the 200-300 million lately vs before....

 

.

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, Torontofan said:

One thing I noticed how few films reach the 200-300 million lately vs before....

 

.

Everything is either a mega bomb or mega hit these days. People are saving their money for the must see films.

[Torontofan]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Everything is either a mega bomb or mega hit these days. People are saving their money for the must see films.

 

Make sense just not Hollywood.

 

Bollywood had 3 films break the domestic box office collection record this year but tons of big films bombed too.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Dragoncaine]

20 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

That's disappointing if it pans out. Caught Thanksgiving last night, and while the 3rd act is far from perfect, the movie as a whole is still a totally self-aware, funny blast with creative kills and occasionally sly commentary.

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, Dragoncaine said:

That's disappointing if it pans out. Caught Thanksgiving last night, and while the 3rd act is far from perfect, the movie as a whole is still a totally self-aware, funny blast with creative kills and occasionally sly commentary.

That tweet to me reads like the actuals will have The Marvels way down and behind Thanksgiving, though... Which would not surprise me one bit.

[Dragoncaine]

13 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

That tweet to me reads like the actuals will have The Marvels way down and behind Thanksgiving, though... Which would not surprise me one bit.

Oh damn, yeah I glossed over "estimates", maybe they'll flip the script

[Krissykins]

Yeh Thanksgiving was great. Hoping it stays above $10m with accruals. 

[eeetooki]

6 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I think Thor 4 used it, but I'm not fully sure.

I swear somewhere in my mind I have an imagery of long haired Thor saying that line.

[YachtyLogs]