Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[M37]

12 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

But this year, we know for a fact that a couple of the top 10 films of the year (now I'm speaking worldwide gross) won't even make enough, or barely will make enough, to cover their budget. Wouldn't having the same market share value only matter if the ratio of gross to budget is the same as those pre-pandemic years?

The point I was making is that the middle range (50th place) film is still grossing on par with the overall market, in line with pre-pandemic trends

 

What that $ value and market share means in terms of ROI (vs budget), and for the future in terms of what films are even made for theatrical release, is a different question (one I'm not optimistic about in the short term)

 

Also doesn't factor in huge ATP increases since pre-pandemic, so actual admissions are down something like 40-50%

 

 

[toutvabien]

Pixar having seemingly a revival after how dirty they were done during COVID while WDAS puts out mediocre bombs feels like nature is healing.

[Bob Train]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

Nah, the real small budget movie are holdovers, saltburn, priscilla. FNAF has a small budget but its branding basically is its cheat code that certainly isn't fooling me into thinking small-scale movie is fighting back. 

2 movies in the DOM top 10 have budgets under 20m, and 2 have budgets over 200m. Seems pretty balanced to me.

 

Priscilla and Saltburn are anti-crowdpleasers and don't seem like they are going to be major awards players, so they aren't expected to dominate the charts. Priscilla making >20m DOM seems pretty good considering the terrible audience scores and the fact that A24 has a hard cap on it due to the lack of traditional marketing.

[AN9815]

I know Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes success probably has nothing to do with Rachel Zegler but I am really happy it is succeeding because she was fantastic as Lucy Gray and totally deserved a win. She has been getting a lot of hate, similar to Brie Larson or Hale Bailey, because of her casting as Snow White and it is totally undeserved (like the other two actresses). It is crazy to me how much hate a certain actor/actress can receive because of a casting choice, an out of context interview or simply being part of a big franchise. 

[M37]

54 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Okay, then I'll go to 100, not 50.

 

The 100th highest grossing film domestically in 2023 is Everything, Everywhere, All At Once (not even a 2023 release) at $7,160,881.

The 100th highest grossing film domestically in 2019 was The Peanut Butter Falcon at $20,457,158.

 

To get to a film that made more than The Peanut Butter Falcon, you have to get to the 61st highest grossing film domestically, which was Strays at $23,988,885.

 

Also, if you couldn't tell, the 2023 list (which I'm getting from the-numbers.com) counts re-releases and films from prior years still in circulation, while the other lists are specific for their year.

Now this is where there HAS been a big shift post-pandemic.  Market share of the 100th grossing release by year

• 2010 = 0.260%
• 2011 = 0.297%
• 2012 = 0.263%
• 2013 = 0.233%
• 2014 = 0.243%
• Five year AVG = 0.259%
• 2015 = 0.190%
• 2016 = 0.207%
• 2017 = 0.191%
• 2018 = 0.187%
• 2019 = 0.195%
• Five Year AVG = 0.194% (-25% from 2014)
• 2023 = ~0.110% (ballpark, assuming ~$9M total for 100th place, that may be a off a bit)

Here we find the same inflection point as the 50th place film (2015), but the drop-off is much quicker for the 100th place film, and post-pandemic, falling way more than the overall box office. Now some of that drop in 2023 is lack of inventory, pandemic delays limiting production and thinning the release calendar, but probably moreso reflective of how streaming has really killed the smaller film market.

 

Probably will have to go up to ~75th place to find that pre-pandemic ~0.2% MS value for this year by the time all the numbers are in

[Mulder]

Hunger Games only dropping 35% is insane. Great numbers for it.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

That feels like a wildcard to me. I think it looks fun, but also, it doesn't look good. And I don't think Sam Rockwell or Bryce Dallas Howard are big enough names to bring people into theaters, even if Henry Cavell is in the film.

 

Although, I remember TikTokers trying to claim Taylor Swift is the film's actual writer because of all the Swift references in the marketing, and we know that's BS, but... what if she's the actual spy who's teased at the end of the trailer? If Taylor Swift is in the film, all bets are off.

I hear you. Matthew Vaughn is the wild card here. Depends on whether we get First Class/Kingsman 1 Vaughn rather than Golden Circle/ The Kings Man Vaughn.  I feel like Apple and Universal might feel they have the former but will see.  Would be nice for a surprise for early in the year.  It's pretty slim pickens otherwise until Dune Part 2. 

[Krissykins]

That’s a shame that Saltburn bombed on expansion. Bad expansion PTA for The Holdovers too. 
 

Nice hold for Thanksgiving, I was thinking it could’ve had a huge drop after the actual day, but people obviously kept festive all weekend. 

[parkerthegreat]

2 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

This year has been an absolute crapshoot for the box office.

 

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2023 is 80 for Brady at $39,330,588.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2019 was Midway at $56,846,802.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2009 was The Final Destination at $66,477,700.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 1999 was Stigmata at $50,041,732.

 

Sure, there were superhits like Barbie, Oppenheimer, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and we can spend time giving Disney shit for their failures this year, but we're all ignoring the fact that most films, individually, are making less than they made 20 years ago.

2023 could conceivably end up in the $50-52mil range for number 50, depending on how December goes. Theoretically Wish, Napoleon, Wonka, Aquaman 2, and Color Purple should all be able to clear $50mil, which would put No Hard Feelings as the 50th highest grosser. Picture looks a little less bleak that way, though still not great. 

[parkerthegreat]

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

That film will be pushed down atleast like 6 spots (assuming no surprises) so it's pretty likely we'll have something like No Hard Feelings at 50.5M as #50, which is not really all that different from 2019, especially with a few strike-related delays (would've been more like 52M range otherwise).

 

FWIW, I do agree the BO is weaker than pre-pandemic, I just think this specific point is pretty weak.

Crap, you beat me to it. Sorry for repeating your point. 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, toutvabien said:

Pixar having seemingly a revival after how dirty they were done during COVID while WDAS puts out mediocre bombs feels like nature is healing.

It’s not WDAS’ fault the execs were asses about that with Pixar. I’d also hold on the “Pixar revival” just yet when they put out their biggest commercial bomb ever last year and one of their worst movies. And I know tons of people here love to gush over Elemental, but the reality is it was just barely profitable at the box office, if at all, and all metric of online reception we have indicate good but not top tier Pixar or anything.

 

That said, they’ve put out 6 films already this decade and 5 of them are varying levels of good to great. They are definitely doing the best for quality this decade of any Disney studio by a long shot. And yes, fuck Disney for devaluing them so much with the D+ treatment when they could possibly be carrying them if they had played it differently. Again, Disney deserves so much of this right now. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

’d also hold on the “Pixar revival” just yet when they put out their biggest commercial bomb ever last year and one of their worst movies.

I was also a bit unsure about being fully back from the impact of their direct to video phase.

 

Good Dinosaur made $432 millions in 2023 dollars at the box office and that was earth shaking bad and by far their worst commercial result ever.

 

Elemental look good because of great legs and relative to their other, but not relative to pre 2020 Pixar.

 

$29m OW was much lower than Onward $39m, which was lower end Pixar.

 

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Barnack

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Barnack said:

I was also a bit unsure about being fully back from the impact of their direct to video phase.

 

Good Dinosaur made $432 millions in 2023 dollars at the box office and that was earth shaking bad and by far their worst commercial result ever.

Yeah but that looks tame next to Lightyear. Barely scrapping 200 WW on a 200 budget… it’s insane for a movie tied to the Toy Story franchise featuring arguably its most popular character and proves what a terrible concept that premise always was. No way it wasn’t a case of exec greed rather than organic ideas. 

[Johnny Tran]

Is Gladiator 2 the working title or is that actually the name of it?   That's a terrible name for a movie of that nature.  

[MovieMan89]

I’m fairly certain the data has shown Buzz action figures to be one of their top selling merch items ever since all the way back to TS1, especially in the boy demo. No way Disney didn’t look at that and greenlight Lightyear based almost entirely on it. They knew they couldn’t have TS5 immediately after 4 since they can’t be so ignorant as to be unaware of the quality expectations with the mainline franchise, and I’m sure the creatives were definitely not in the place for any kind of follow up idea immediately after 4. So Lightyear was probably seen as the next best thing by them. Lol.
 

Disney needs to take a long hard look at Lightyear with this Frozen 3 and 4 mess. If the concept isn’t there to warrant that, they are gonna bomb, I guarantee it. IPs won’t save them anymore, not where they are these days at least. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’m fairly certain the data has shown Buzz action figures to be one of their top selling merch items ever since all the way back to TS1, especially in the boy demo. No way Disney didn’t look at that and greenlight Lightyear based almost entirely on it. They knew they couldn’t have TS5 immediately after 4 since they can’t be so ignorant as to be unaware of the quality expectations with the mainline franchise, and I’m sure the creatives were definitely not in the place for any kind of follow up idea immediately after 4. So Lightyear was probably seen as the next best thing by them. Lol.
 

Disney needs to take a long hard look at Lightyear with this Frozen 3 and 4 mess. If the concept isn’t there to warrant that, they are gonna bomb, I guarantee it. IPs won’t save them anymore, not where they are these days at least. 

Frozen 2 is already a gigantic mess production wise that was saved by decent comedic bits and good soundtrack 

 

There’s a good chance Frozen 3 ended up with disappointing box office if the movie is bad

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Frozen 2 is already a gigantic mess production wise that was saved by decent comedic bits and good soundtrack 

 

There’s a good chance Frozen 3 ended up with disappointing box office if the movie is bad

2 had a well strategized gap in that a ton of toddler aged kids loved the first movie and were still in prime Frozen viewing age when 2 came out, while older kids with 1 likely had some nostalgia already as teenagers. We will see what 3 and 4 looks like with kids now that there won’t be the generational overlap of the kids who made Frozen a sensation. 
 

Moreover, I guarantee audiences are going to collective eye roll if there’s some “cliffhanger” ending with 3 to an already uninspired plot that makes it clear this whole back to back 3 and 4 was all a major cash grab. GA isn’t playing that game with Disney especially anymore. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by MovieMan89

[John Marston]

Lightyear was one of the most mind boggling premises for a movie in ages. Let's make a Buzz Lightyear movie, but recast him and make it about a bunch of people being stuck on a drab planet for the whole movie. No wonder the director (who also came up with the story) got fired

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

Is Gladiator 2 the working title or is that actually the name of it?   That's a terrible name for a movie of that nature.  

Working title, there's no name yet.

[MovieMan89]

16 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Lightyear was one of the most mind boggling premises for a movie in ages. Let's make a Buzz Lightyear movie, but recast him and make it about a bunch of people being stuck on a drab planet for the whole movie. No wonder the director (who also came up with the story) got fired

I still would not be surprised if it was all forced upon the creatives (execs: come up with a buzz spinoff for us and do it fast).