Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Where is Wonka heading?

$200M+ DOM $550M+ WW

[YM!]

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Lee had also doctored the script for the first Wreck-It Ralph which got her the gig to rewrite Frozen and then co-direct the film in the first place. She seems to be much better at revising a pre-existing script than creating something from ground up.

Yeah. A Wrinkle In Time and Wish floundered when coming from an idea of hers and tbh Frozen II had story problems because she couldn’t figure out what to do with it - that’s partially why Frozen 3 is a two-parter.

[Mojoguy]

2 hours ago, YM! said:

Disney is not in the position after this year to bully any sort of screens.

The Marvels is gone, and Wish just made $1.1m last weekend. Disney had an especially catastrophic Nov this year.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

I wonder if they might consider reviving Gigantic now. Can't imagine it doing much worse than Wish did.

Skydance is doing it it seems.

[John2015]

5 hours ago, PenguinHyphy said:

I am guessing that it is a wrap on Heat 2 since Ferrari is shaping up to be a monumental Christmas bomb

 

Neon only paid $15M+ to acquire the "Ferrari"  US rights, and they still have chance to make some profit on the film.

 

The film was actually a streaming film until Neon picked it up.  (STX was going to send the film direct to Showtime.)

https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-migration-color-purple-1235680766/

Edited December 26, 2023 by John2015

[AniNate]

53 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Yeah but it will still be a dire 2024 to face. Still good news.

 

Might not be as much as we feared. Honestly more I think about it, a lot of interesting projects on the docket next year.

[CJohn]

I was hoping Migration would breakout. It is my "theaters are dead" run of December. I seriously thought 200M+ DOM was possible but audiences are just not giving a fuck about it worldwide.

 

Ferrari is a monster bomb as expected. Boys in the Boat will do like 30M or whatever, a nothing run. TCP will do 150M+. Wonka should go above 200M. Aquaman is a major disaster that should end just above 100M. Hopefully Poor Things gains traction this week. Anyone But You is doing way better than I expected and Iron Claw will be another nice 20M+ success for A24.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Yeah but it will still be a dire 2024 to face. Still good news.

 

31 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Might not be as much as we feared. Honestly more I think about it, a lot of interesting projects on the docket next year.

 

You know, I'd be hesitant to be too Doom and Gloom about 2024.

 

Consider if I posted the following in Late Dec 2022:

 

Quote

Rank	Movie	Release Date	Distributor	Genre	2023 Gross
	Spider-Man: Across the Spid…	Jun 2, 2023	Sony Pictures	Adventure	$381,311,319
	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3	May 5, 2023	Walt Disney	Action	$358,995,815
	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quant…	Feb 17, 2023	Walt Disney	Action	$214,506,909
	Indiana Jones and the Dial …	Jun 30, 2023	Walt Disney	Adventure	$174,480,468
	Mission: Impossible Dead Re…	Jul 12, 2023	Paramount Pictures	Action	$172,135,383
	Elemental	Jun 16, 2023	Walt Disney	Adventure	$154,426,697
	The Hunger Games: The Balla…	Nov 17, 2023	Lionsgate	Action	$153,337,500
	The Flash	Jun 16, 2023	Warner Bros.	Action	$108,133,313
	The Marvels	Nov 10, 2023	Walt Disney	Adventure	$84,425,017
	Blue Beetle	Aug 18, 2023	Warner Bros.	Action	$72,488,072
	Haunted Mansion	Jul 28, 2023	Walt Disney	Comedy	$67,653,287
	Killers of the Flower Moon	Oct 20, 2023	Paramount Pictures	Western	$67,235,408
	Wish	Nov 22, 2023	Walt Disney	Adventure	$57,743,376
	Shazam! Fury of the Gods	Mar 17, 2023	Warner Bros.	Action	$57,638,006

 

What do you think the reaction would be?  No need to tell me, as we all lived through it.

 

(yes, I didn't include some films like Fast X or Napoleon as a negative as the above was something of a judgement call — plus I needed something to anchor the top of the list and AtSV and GOTG3 were as good as any for "expectations settings")

 

But I intentionally curated that list to remove massive over-performers (SMB, Barbie, Oppenheimer, FNAF), things that did better than expected/did pretty well after all (TLM, Wick 4, RotB) or COMPLETELY OUT OF EFFIN NOWHERE (TET, Sound of Freedom).  And the book is still being written on things like Wonka and TCP.

 

That is to say, many many many high profile bombs/disappointments.  But quite a few unexpected success stories/films that overcame hurdles as well.  

 

This isn't to say that 2024 is going to follow the same pattern of Unexpected Success.  Might be a terribad year.  But I wouldn't be quite so quick to proclaim it fait accompli. 

 

[joaqs]

This week had all the signs of being terrible but people still showed up. I think 2024 will do just fine, folks will just have to look elsewhere to find worthy movies other than the Disney domination.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

You know, I'd be hesitant to be too Doom and Gloom about 2024.

 

Consider if I posted the following in Late Dec 2022:

 

 

What do you think the reaction would be?  No need to tell me, as we all lived through it.

 

(yes, I didn't include some films like Fast X or Napoleon as a negative as the above was something of a judgement call — plus I needed something to anchor the top of the list and AtSV and GOTG3 were as good as any for "expectations settings")

 

But I intentionally curated that list to remove massive over-performers (SMB, Barbie, Oppenheimer, FNAF), things that did better than expected/did pretty well after all (TLM, Wick 4, RotB) or COMPLETELY OUT OF EFFIN NOWHERE (TET, Sound of Freedom).  And the book is still being written on things like Wonka and TCP.

 

That is to say, many many many high profile bombs/disappointments.  But quite a few unexpected success stories/films that overcame hurdles as well.  

 

This isn't to say that 2024 is going to follow the same pattern of Unexpected Success.  Might be a terribad year.  But I wouldn't be quite so quick to proclaim it fait accompli. 

 

 

To put the above chart in a different light, the GOOD NEWS/WTF version of the chart (minus AtSV/GOTG3 which was in the first one):

 

Quote

Rank	Movie	Release Date	Distributor	Genre	2023 Gross
	Barbie	Jul 21, 2023	Warner Bros.	Comedy	$636,220,453
	The Super Mario Bros. Movie	Apr 5, 2023	Universal	Action	$574,934,330
	Oppenheimer	Jul 21, 2023	Universal	Drama	$326,081,985
	The Little Mermaid	May 26, 2023	Walt Disney	Adventure	$298,172,056
	John Wick: Chapter 4	Mar 24, 2023	Lionsgate	Action	$187,131,806
	Sound of Freedom	Jul 4, 2023	Angel Studios	Thriller/Suspense	$184,178,046
	TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR	Oct 13, 2023	AMC Theatres Dist…	Concert/Perfor…	$179,444,207
	Transformers: Rise of the B…	Jun 9, 2023	Paramount Pictures	Action	$157,066,392
	Creed III	Mar 3, 2023	MGM	Drama	$156,248,615
	Five Nights at Freddy’s	Oct 27, 2023	Universal	Horror	$137,275,620
	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Dec 21, 2022	Universal	Adventure	$124,312,675
	M3GAN	Jan 6, 2023	Universal	Horror	$95,043,350
	Wonka	Dec 15, 2023	Warner Bros.	Musical	$85,853,000
	Jesus Revolution	Feb 24, 2023	Lionsgate	Drama	$52,102,987
	Godzilla Minus One	Dec 1, 2023	Toho International	Action	$41,076,451

 

(I don't have a really good handle on what makes for a success story on horror films, so just mentally add them if you think they're missing)

 

There's a lot of success stories there for 2023.  Even something like FNAF which turned out to be massively frontloaded, was a pretty big win all things considered.  And that's not even getting into true wildcards like The Boy and the Heron (30m+ and rising).

 

(also was debating whether or not to include Jesus Revolution, but it's probably good enough to include it to forestall arguments)

 

Doesn't mean 2024 will have similar Out Of Nowhere success stories.  Doesn't mean it won't, either. 

 

But, then, aren't the Unexpected Success Stories part of the fun of all of this?  Tend to think so. 🙂

[Johnny Tran]

Aquaman 2 is a 'disaster' and yet will not be in the top 3 disasters of 2023.  What does that say? 

[CJohn]

11 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Aquaman 2 is a 'disaster' and yet will not be in the top 3 disasters of 2023.  What does that say? 

We all know what it says: theaters are dead.

 

If Aquaman somehow crawls to 400M+ WW I won't even consider it a flop but instead a victim of the biggest mismanagement of all time.

[Johnny Tran]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

We all know what it says: theaters are dead.

 

If Aquaman somehow crawls to 400M+ WW I won't even consider it a flop but instead a victim of the biggest mismanagement of all time.

 

It's probably going to be more like $250M.  

[dallas]

I think next year's slate is going to do well at the box office. There may not be any $1B grossers, but there will be multiple success stories. 

[HummingLemon496]

11 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

It's probably going to be more like $250M.  

No, it's easily clearing $250M WW, unless it has ~2x legs or lower from the 4-day or something

[M37]

39 minutes ago, CJohn said:

We all know what it says: theaters are dead.

There he is! Glad to see you have escaped your captors 😂

[M37]

26 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

It's probably going to be more like $250M.  

More like $350M give or take. Already over halfway to $250M after 4 days, a whole holiday week to come 

[Mulder]

55 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Aquaman 2 is a 'disaster' and yet will not be in the top 3 disasters of 2023.  What does that say? 

That the superhero genre is dying and that both Disney and WB are having issues adjusting to a changing theatrical and pop culture landscape. It really says nothing about theaters. 

[HummingLemon496]

We need @Legion Again's opinion on where AQM 2 will land WW 

[Speedorito]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

Aquaman 2 is a 'disaster' and yet will not be in the top 3 disasters of 2023.  What does that say? 

I feel like that’s a textbook example of “damning with faint praise”…