MovieMan89 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 This is truly the worst November through February box office slate of all time (I hope I don’t have to keep asterisking things like this with not counting Covid since that should be assumed). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vafrow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: This is truly the worst November through February box office slate of all time (I hope I don’t have to keep asterisking things like this with not counting Covid since that should be assumed). We're coming off one of the biggest labor stoppages in Hollywood history. This isn't the pandemic, but it's a pretty big consideration that's had a sizable impact. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: This is truly the worst November through February box office slate of all time (I hope I don’t have to keep asterisking things like this with not counting Covid since that should be assumed). Honestly, this spring and summer look really lame. Too many sequels to not that exciting movies. Godzilla vs Kong, Planet of the Apes look like surefire flops. Fall looks better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 47 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: This is truly the worst November through February box office slate of all time (I hope I don’t have to keep asterisking things like this with not counting Covid since that should be assumed). November through February Total Gross 2021-22 = $2,200M (NWH = 35% of total) 2022-23 = $2,390M (Avatar 2 = 27.9% of total) 2023-24 = $2,100M est (No film over 10% of total) So a minor drop off from prior two years (~10%), but MUCH more depth to get to that total, not carried by a single tentpole Even if you look by release date and not calendar gross, its $2.27B, $2.39B, and somewhat bigger drop to around $2B (but won't know for sure until legs can be evaluated say around middle of March) This might just the new norm: much weaker Fall and Winter product, unless a tentpole - or two - to save the day, while Summer continues to rival pre-pandemic grosses (even if getting there via higher ATP/lower admits) Edited February 3 by M37 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMC Theaters Enjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 We’re really in the trenches until May at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, M37 said: November through February Total Gross 2021-22 = $2,200M (NWH = 35% of total) 2022-23 = $2,390M (Avatar 2 = 27.9% of total) 2023-24 = $2,100M est (No film over 10% of total) So a minor drop off from prior two years (~10%), but MUCH more depth to get to that total, not carried by a single tentpole Even if you look by release date and not calendar gross, its $2.27B, $2.39B, and somewhat bigger drop to around $2B (but won't know for sure until legs can be evaluated say around middle of March) This might just the new norm: much weaker Fall and Winter product, unless a tentpole - or two - to save the day, while Summer continues to rival pre-pandemic grosses (even if getting there via higher ATP/lower admits) Following up on that final comment, let's throw in those other two Fall Months: September through February Total Gross 2021-22 = $3,191M 2022-23 = $3,182M 2023-24 = $3,125M est How they got there, via tentpoles or more mid-tier films, and in which months those films released are all different, but that's fairly consistent total year to years. Its probably some combination of NFL being king domestically and disfavoring releases during those months, plus a more limited calendar from first COVID delays and now strikes Edited February 4 by M37 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 It really doesn’t need to be said that NWH marks the start of “normalcy” again at the BO at this point does it? That holiday was definitely still impacted by Covid. The massive NWH OW and the start of that new year is when Covid finally started to be a non-entity on BO again. Though still arguably not full out of the picture until that summer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlatnumRoyce Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 how is argylle looking globally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 51 minutes ago, vafrow said: We're coming off one of the biggest labor stoppages in Hollywood history. This isn't the pandemic, but it's a pretty big consideration that's had a sizable impact. Very little impact from that in this stretch outside of the Dune delay. You can make an argument for this holiday feeling it more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just saw the Beekeeper. Pretty good. Better than the average Jason Statham solo star vehicle. I can see why the WOM and legs are better. It feels like it has a John Wick mythology it can expand upon in sequels if they were to make any. As long as they keep the budget in the 35-45 m range with the post covid theatrical changes sequels would not continue to rise ala Wick but I could see staying in that 50-70 m DOM range this will finish with. And if David Ayer keeps making movies like this I will not complain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyB Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 14 minutes ago, M37 said: November through February Total Gross 2021-22 = $2,200M (NWH = 35% of total) 2022-23 = $2,390M (Avatar 2 = 27.9% of total) 2023-24 = $2,100M est (No film over 10% of total) So a minor drop off from prior two years (~10%), but MUCH more depth to get to that total, not carried by a single tentpole Even if you look by release date and not calendar gross, its $2.27B, $2.39B, and somewhat bigger drop to around $2B (but won't know for sure until legs can be evaluated say around middle of March) This might just the new norm: much weaker Fall and Winter product, unless a tentpole - or two - to save the day, while Summer continues to rival pre-pandemic grosses (even if getting there via higher ATP/lower admits) Summer 2022 was $3.391b (2001 numbers) and thats with TGM, Strange 2, Minions, Thor 4 and Jurassic World Dominion all making 300m plus. Summer 2023 was running behind Summer 2022 until Barbenheimer saved the day with TFA like grosses. With that the summer box office hit $4.039b. Summer 2024 will need another Barbenheimer like event without it Im not seeing pre-pandemic like grosses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlatnumRoyce Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: It really doesn’t need to be said that NWH marks the start of “normalcy” again at the BO at this point does it? That holiday was definitely still impacted by Covid. The massive NWH OW and the start of that new year is when Covid finally started to be a non-entity on BO again. Though still arguably not full out of the picture until that summer. I dont love using NWH as an inflection point but I'll also flag that an additional benefit of using it is that covid effects only decreased after that point. For example, according to NRG, audiences were more willing to go to see a film in theaters when Black Widow released than they were when Shang-Chi dropped. I really do think there were covid effects in the first half of 2022 that sort of get memory holed. Not that people's personal losses are forgotten but the general cultural-economic-behavioral history of covid feels like it's downplaying groving plurality of covid responses at that time. Here's content from deadline's NWH OW article Quote According to NRG, moviegoer comfort has declined with the most recent news about Omicron, going from 74% who said that they were very or somewhat comfortable attending a movie theater last week to 69% for the holiday weekend. Of those polled, 34% feel that the situation is “‘getting worse,” which is +7 points from Monday and +13 points from just a week ago. This is similar to what NRG spotted in early August, when “getting worse” grew +12 points to 34% from July 28-Aug. 4. Quote Meanwhile, in the Northeast, “getting worse” has exploded from 27% a week ago to 47% before this weekend. That’s 15 points ahead of any other region, reinforcing how dramatic the situation is in that area. Ten days ago, 21% of vaccinated moviegoers and 20% of non-vaccinated moviegoers said the situation was getting worse. Now, it is 42% for vaccinated and just 23% for non-vaccinated. And in the last week, comfort among vaccinated has dropped -7 to 64%, while non-vaccinated fell just 1% to 72%. At the release of Thor 4, polled comfort was at 80% and I think that's the last time we got a notably visible anecdote. Edited February 3 by PlatnumRoyce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedorito Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, vafrow said: We're coming off one of the biggest labor stoppages in Hollywood history. This isn't the pandemic, but it's a pretty big consideration that's had a sizable impact. It was literally the biggest thing people were talking about here every day for six months. But the moment it ended it was like some people instantly forgot about it somehow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Ariana DeBose - box office curse (West Side Story, Wish, ISS, Argyle. Next Kraven the Hunter) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said: It really doesn’t need to be said that NWH marks the start of “normalcy” again at the BO at this point does it? That holiday was definitely still impacted by Covid. The massive NWH OW and the start of that new year is when Covid finally started to be a non-entity on BO again. Though still arguably not full out of the picture until that summer. 1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said: I dont love using NWH as an inflection point but I'll also flag that an additional benefit of using it is that covid effects only decreased after that point. For example, according to NRG, audiences were more willing to go to see a film in theaters when Black Widow released than they were when Shang-Chi dropped. I would (and have) argued that Batman in March 2022 is when we really flipped the page to the true post-pandemic market, with Memorial Day 2021 (Cruella & Quiet Place 2) through February 2022 being more of a transition phase, worthy of being asterisked in some cases 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kon Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, Speedorito said: It was literally the biggest thing people were talking about here every day for six months. But the moment it ended it was like some people instantly forgot about it somehow. To be fair, the strikes shouldn't have affected a lot of early 2024. The current amount of movies until March wouldn't be so different without the strikes. Edited February 4 by Kon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominic Draper Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, emoviefan said: Just saw the Beekeeper. Pretty good. Better than the average Jason Statham solo star vehicle. I can see why the WOM and legs are better. It feels like it has a John Wick mythology it can expand upon in sequels if they were to make any. As long as they keep the budget in the 35-45 m range with the post covid theatrical changes sequels would not continue to rise ala Wick but I could see staying in that 50-70 m DOM range this will finish with. And if David Ayer keeps making movies like this I will not complain. Seems like he will. Teaming up with Statham again. https://deadline.com/2024/01/jason-statham-david-ayer-sylvester-stallone-amazon-levons-trade-movie-deal-1235805593/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just got out of Zone of Interest - WOW! Jonathan Glazer has such a striking command of the cinematic form, using the tools of the medium in such a deeply affecting way. Shades of Come & See (sonically more so than visually) and ofc Eichmann in Jerusalem. 2023 really did spoil us, so I guess 2024 is gonna be the come down for me to catch up on my other hobbies since the film slate looks so poor 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Post by @kierantriplett View on Threads 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric the Ape Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, grim22 said: Ehh, let these stupid kids enjoy their wrong opinions. They'll grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
