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Weekend Thread | Argylle 1.7 Previews

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1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Remember when Batman v Superman was seen as a special event because of just how bad its word of mouth was? Good times. Now we get a sea of BvS'es all year round. The deterioration of Hollywood this decade will be one for the history books.

That's karma for how people treated BVS as a failure when it actually was a commercial success. Exhibitors should have been more supportive of that phase of the DCEU. I don't feel sorry for movie theaters at all. While we're seeing so many franchise movies getting similar critical reception and cinemascore, none of them are selling the number of tickets DC was selling back then.

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8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird this site is not loading on my computer but working on my phone.

 

Walkups today was much better. Sole almost 80k tickets at MTC1. But it's over indexing big time. Still should hit low teens OW.

 

They took down the site so we didn't find out who the real agent argylle was. 

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15 hours ago, M37 said:

Somewhat off topic, but this weekend is boring, so how about looking ahead? Went to see Boys in the Boat today (good movie, and yeah I'm behind), and had some thoughts on the trailers. FWIW, I'm someone who believes strongly in trailers as a predictive measure, as a clue to what story the studio is trying to tell, and whether - and which - potential audiences will be receptive (or at least on the fence)

 

In order of release date:

  • Ghostbusters Frozen Empire - Got the teaser, but even the full trailer seems kinda ... uninspiring? Lots of stars/cameos, filled with one liners, but sure seems to tugging on the nostalgia string rather than building a compelling story. Definitely concerned reviews aren't great and it falls off quickly after what OW the brand can muster
  • Challengers - Um, yeah ... clearly I'm not the target audience for this, but a dark and sexy drama/suspense centered around ::checks notes:: tennis? I'm not sure who is tbh, and maybe star power carries it to a decent opening/total, like No Hard Feelings, but I'm skeptical
  • Godzilla X Kong - Many have asked, what does this movie offer that the last one didn't? How about instead of seeing a showdown of heavyweights, the two team up to fight a common enemy (for more than a twist ending); so not BvS but Justice League, but throw in a Baby Kong too, and on the heels of a revitalized interest in Godzilla thanks to G-1? Yeah, this has some solid potential, won't be at all shocked if it gives Dune II a run for its money as top March release
  • Kingdom of POTA - As someone who hasn't watched any of the current franchise, and has been bearish on the prospect (of Disney giving up on it), I found it ... kind of interesting? Problem is, appears to somewhat of a less ... uh, aggressive tone/focus shift, which may turn off current fans but also fail to bring in newbies, leaving not much left
  • Fall Guy - Saw it before, do think there is some sneaky potential here, but it has to hit the right comedy/action tone, in vein of Lost City and Free Guy (ie have good reviews) or could be just another forgettable release

 

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire - I had some moderate hopes for this one as my kid enjoyed the last one, but, he's shown little interest in this one. It has me thinking it's going to struggle, barring some really good word of mouth.

 

Challengers - I'm intrigued by this one personally, but I'm a guy who follows tennis even at the Challenger tournament level. The studio seems like they're pretty confident in this though, that they can sell it around Zendaya. I imagine that expectations are still modest though, and $50M would be a huge win domestically.

 

Fall Guy - I think the release date is a big factor here. I feel it gives the film a solid floor at around $150M domestic. Gosling should be riding high from his Barbie hype, and, the trailer is fun. I'm tempted to say in the $200M range, but, I'm reluctant to predict much landing in that range because few films do, and under $200M is more likely than over $300M.

 

POTA - I love these films, but their appeal is limited. And things like Furiosa and Civil War coming out around the same time targets the same audience. $160-70M is my guess.

 

Godzilla X Kong - I don't think I've seen the trailer, but I'm not too optimistic here. We ordered the last one because my kid was excited to see it, but this one hasn't been talked about in our household. $100-120M is my guess.

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The blah numbers for Argylle are hardly a surprise after the terrible reviews. Believe there still is an audience for a star-studded comedic spy thriller, but a Metacritic score in the Red zone isn't going to excite anyone. At least all those fine actors presumably were paid very nicely for it, at least.

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Down 11% from last Friday. Was hoping for one more increase since it nearly doubled its theater count, but it's still on track for a $6M+ total, which is still a pretty great number for a non-English language film as...esoteric as this. 

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1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Godzilla X Kong - I don't think I've seen the trailer, but I'm not too optimistic here. We ordered the last one because my kid was excited to see it, but this one hasn't been talked about in our household. $100-120M is my guess.

I was pretty meh on it by name only, but it’s a good trailer, and I could see it hitting the right notes with audiences and doing much better than my on paper expectations 

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28 minutes ago, M37 said:

I was pretty meh on it by name only, but it’s a good trailer, and I could see it hitting the right notes with audiences and doing much better than my on paper expectations 

 

I just checked out the trailers, and, it didn't do much for me. Nor could my kids be bothered to watch. 

 

Maybe it's resonating with others, and, it's hard to know if the success of Godzilla Minus One will help or hurt this.

 

But, it offers a fun popcorn movie when there isn't much else similar, so, I can't write it off, but I remain luke warm on it.

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The Beekeper hold! - 28% only. 🐝

 

Aquaman is passing 120M this weekend

 

No number for ABY yet on The Numbers but fongers crossed for amazing hold again.

 

Poor Things already slashing number of theaters WTF didn it it increase the number just last week?

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7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

The Beekeper hold! - 28% only. 🐝

 

Aquaman is passing 120M this weekend

 

No number for ABY yet on The Numbers but fongers crossed for amazing hold again.

 

Poor Things already slashing number of theaters WTF didn it it increase the number just last week?

 

 

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2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire - I had some moderate hopes for this one as my kid enjoyed the last one, but, he's shown little interest in this one. It has me thinking it's going to struggle, barring some really good word of mouth.

 

Challengers - I'm intrigued by this one personally, but I'm a guy who follows tennis even at the Challenger tournament level. The studio seems like they're pretty confident in this though, that they can sell it around Zendaya. I imagine that expectations are still modest though, and $50M would be a huge win domestically.

 

Fall Guy - I think the release date is a big factor here. I feel it gives the film a solid floor at around $150M domestic. Gosling should be riding high from his Barbie hype, and, the trailer is fun. I'm tempted to say in the $200M range, but, I'm reluctant to predict much landing in that range because few films do, and under $200M is more likely than over $300M.

 

POTA - I love these films, but their appeal is limited. And things like Furiosa and Civil War coming out around the same time targets the same audience. $160-70M is my guess.

 

Godzilla X Kong - I don't think I've seen the trailer, but I'm not too optimistic here. We ordered the last one because my kid was excited to see it, but this one hasn't been talked about in our household. $100-120M is my guess.

Ghostsbusters: FE- Yeah I am looking forward to it but have a hard time seeing it get even close to Afterlife's numbers unless it is really good and has great WOM.                                                                                                                                                                                     Challengers- Have no interest. Not in my wheelhouse. Could see it being a mini breakout with the audience it appeals to though.        Fall Guy- I have been personally and BO wise really high on this. If it is as good as the industry buzz is saying then I think this will be a big hit. Yeah the floor should be around 150 m the question is what the ceiling could be. If this hits with both genders and WOM is great then i think easily over 200 m.                                                                                                                                                                             KPOTA-  love these films also but yeah another franchise that the GA is probably over if they were ever into it that much anyway. 160 m would be better than WOPOTA did. Fingers crossed.                                                                                                                                             Godzilla v Kong- Personally looking forward to it but like Apes and Ghostbusters will the GA care enough if the reviews and WOM are not there. Probably not.                                                                                                                                                                   

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https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-argylle-1235812281/

 

Quote

1.) Argylle (App/Uni) 3,605 theaters, Fri $6.5M 3-day $16.5M/ Wk 1

 

2.) The Beekeeper (AMZ MGM) 3,277 (-60) theaters, Fri $1.3M (-28%) 3-day $5.1M (-22%), Total $49.3M/Wk 4

 

3.) Wonka (WB) 2,901 (-113) theaters, Fri $1M (-24%) 3-day $4.7M (-18%), Total $201M/Wk 8

 

4.) Migration (Ill/Uni) 2,830 (-140) Fri $840K (-19%) 3-day $4.2M (-14%), Total $106.2M/ Wk 7

 

5.) Mean Girls (Par) 3,107 (-437) theaters, Fri $1M (-47%) 3-day $3.85M (-44%), Total $66.2M/Wk 4

 

6.) Anyone But You (Sony) 2,619 (-266) (-43) Fri $1M (-29%) 3-day $3.27M (-29%),Total $76M/Wk 7

 

7.) The Chosen (Fath) Fri $1.75M, 3-day $3.25M/Total $4.7M/Wk 1

 

8.) American Fiction (AMZ MGM) 1,902 (+200) theaters, $615K (-21%) 3-day $2.189M (-16%), Total $14.9M/Wk 8

 

9.) Poor Things (Sea) 1,950 (-350) Fri $592K (-30%) 3-day $2.1M (-28%)/Total $28.1M/Wk 9

 

10.) Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (WB) 1,742 (-376) theaters, Fri $440K (-33%) 3-day $1.8M (-31%) /Total $120.6M/Wk 7

 

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Tells you how bad it has got for Argyle that I am surprised with that number. I thought it would do only 5- 5,5 or so. It will crash after this but once again people were interested and if it had been good and well marketed than it may have broken out in this dead marketplace. 

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Lack of competition is indeed helping some movies have really nice legs, as expected, but next weekend with no wide release and the Super Bowl is going to cause meltdowns how low things get. Madame Web ain't doing shit either. Bout to have a February where One Love is the only 50m grosser, and even that not by a ton.

 

Fortunately, I'm optimistic to varying degrees about all four big releases in March plus a couple of the smaller ones too.

Edited by Cmasterclay
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On 2/2/2024 at 11:18 AM, BadOlCatSylvester said:

oppenheimer-071723-2-b381da3f9c314ca7b23

The lowest regular opening weekend ever for a $200M+ movie. I have no words.

Argylle did not cost $200M to make, Apple bought the rights to the movie for that much. 

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11 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Lack of competition is indeed helping some movies have really nice legs, as expected, but next weekend with no wide release and the Super Bowl is going to cause meltdowns how low things get. Madame Web ain't doing shit either. Bout to have a February where One Love is the only 50m grosser, and even that not by a ton.

 

Fortunately, I'm optimistic to varying degrees about all four big releases in March plus a couple of the smaller ones too.

Lisa Frankenstein opens in 3000 plus theaters next weekend and Im not sure One Love gets to 50m.  

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3 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Lisa Frankenstein opens in 3000 plus theaters next weekend and Im not sure One Love gets to 50m.  

Oops! Goes to show what my predictions are for that one!

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