Jump to content

Issac Newton

Weekend Thread | Est. Bob Marley $13.5M, Demon Slayer $11.58M, Ordinary Angels $6.5M, Madame Web $6.0M, Migration $3.0M, Argylle $2.8M, Wonka $2.54M, Drive Away Dolls $2.4M, The Beekeeper $1.96M

By Issac Newton, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts





Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted

This weekend is looking to be super super boring (doubt we'll even get reports on Ordinary Angels/Drive-Away Dolls' previews today), so I'll just spew out my hot takes for the rest of the year. Just so we can have something interesting to argue over.

 

  • I thought Ghostbusters was going sub-100 for the longest time. Felt like there was just no big, exciting hook compared to the last two movies, unless you’re a hardcore Ghostbusters fan. And said fans are generally old white guys who just don’t go to the movies much anymore. But Quorum data and BOP tracking, which I know isn’t everybody’s cup of tea, indicates a potential 40M+ opening. Maybe even 50M+. I guess that checks out since Afterlife was coming out during peak Omicron, which for sure had its impacts. Assuming the budget isn’t that larger, I guess that means we’ll get another one of these.

 

  • Godzilla X Kong meanwhile I think might just scrape to about 110M. Maybe even 105M. That also has the same problem Ghostbusters has where the hook is really only exciting to Monsterverse fans. And while King Kong is obviously a bigger deal, KOTM shows that a bunch of CGI kaiju beasts hitting each other doesn't mean instant big bucks or appeal to the normies. Should still beat out Godzilla vs. Kong thanks to no COVID and no HBO Max, but still not that great.

 

  • Oh, and Kung Fu Panda should easily hit 100M and be second for the month. I don't think that's a hot take, but...yeah.

 

  • Civil War and Challengers should do solid business for the kinds of movies that they are. So like 25M, maybe 30M for Civil War and about 40M for Challengers? Helps that A24 and tennis/Zendaya are bigger than ever. And I guess with recent news, Civil War is topical? Or maybe you could argue its issue is its too inaccurate to the actual events. I dunno. Still pretty bummed that Challengers didn’t launch in September, since its festival buzz and Coco Gauff hype would have probably made 50M+ easier to get to. Weird MGM didn't try to plop Challengers at Berlin or something to get some easy buzz and early good reviews out.

 

  • Monkey Man though? I’m gonna be bold and say it grosses 80M+. Universal gave it Super Bowl treatment, you got Peele’s name attached, John Wick-style action movies are hot, it’s getting a SXSW premiere. There’s a good sense of confidence in this that makes me think it will really break out. Maybe even 100M with such a quiet April?

 

  • Within the summer lineup, I’m seeing about 11 movies crossing 100M. Which sounds low, but it’s only 2 less than what we got last year, so...not the worst? And maybe something sneaks up that we didn’t expect.

 

  • Though if we get a 12th movie this summer reaching it, my money’s on Alien: Romulus. I know the franchise isn’t in a good spot, but there’s a solid director in charge, horror fandom’s very loyal, and it doesn’t seem to be going for the weird BS that Ridley Scott was going for, but just a solid, back to basics survival story, which is really what the fans want IMO. In a dead August like this, it can go a long way. Even Prey’s big success on streaming seems like a good sign both in terms of franchise popularity and fandom reassurance IMO.

 

  • Still gunning for Inside Out 2 to be the biggest movie of the summer and of the year, with at least 400M+. Feel like it, Despicable Me, and Deadpool will be the only 300M+ grossers this summer, with a whole sea of 100/200s. That’s basically what we got last year, so I guess that’s fine.

 

  • Horizon 1 and 2 are also potential 100M+ grossers, but I'm also a little shaky with the whole "only appeals to old white guys" thing. But on the other hand, Yellowstone's the biggest thing on TV, so maybe that's enough to get that audience hyped? Just seems like something where these movies could make 30M or 150M and neither would surprise me.

 

  • I’m not sure how most are feeling over Furiosa, but that sadly feels like it will disappoint from expectations and gross like 110M or something. The trailer came and went and was kind of divisive even among Fury Road fans, and they aren’t really doing much else to advertise it right now (still early though I guess). Plus both Fall Guy and Planet of the Apes will come out prior to serve as solid action competition and both are looking pretty good in terms of online buzz and marketing push. Quorum awareness is also really bad for Furiosa. But in its defense, Dune 2's awareness was really bad up until very recently...but that movie is also coming out at a huge lull for box office. In hindsight, maybe they should have tried to just make a regular Mad Max movie with Tom Hardy again?

 

  • Joker 2’s still going for a gross on par with the first movie IMO. The second the trailer drops and we see Gaga as Harley Quinn, buzz will be through the roof.

 

  • Disney’s very stupid and loves to stick to release dates they really should just leave behind. But if they were smart, they should push Moana 2 up to November 1. Or November 8 if Venom 3 isn’t ready and/or its release date gets replaced by Bad Boys 4. People here are dogging on Wicked and how bad it looks, but it looks no different from most of the Disney remakes, which have been reliable performers, and is direct competition for families and especially Disney Adults. And at this point, even Disney Adults aren't too hot on Disney movies. If Moana really does have the look and feel of a direct-to-video sequel as its weird production seemingly implies, it will get creamed by Wicked. At least by putting it up a few weeks with little to no competition, it can have time to itself and potentially get some IMAX/Dolby, which is the most crucial thing for success in today's market.

 

  • Wicked also would be good as the splashy Christmas musical for the season, but I also understand wanting to follow the Frozen playbook. And thankfully, December looks really strong with Sonic and Lord of the Rings and Karate Kid. Sonic’s gonna hit Wonka numbers thanks to Shadow, which would be mad impressive for this franchise to keep gaining from the last movie. Though yeah, I can’t imagine what else they can do with Sonic 4 afterwards, since Shadow’s the last character you can really push as a big selling point. Mufasa meanwhile will have an Alice 2-style drop, which...I mean, it’s better than a Marvels-style drop.

 

Don’t think I have any other big hot takes to share.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Honestly...I was expecting much lower? Considering the lazyness of the whole thing last year, and the fact that it did get punished for it in Japan. But I guess not the case overseas...

Was that the film last year when they just squeezed some old episodes together or something? Is this the same thing? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-bob-marley-one-love-demon-slayer-madame-web-1235835359/

 

Quote

Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s faith-based Hilary Swank drama Ordinary Angels saw $285K off previews that began at 6PM. While that’s low, there’s hope that this movie could over exceed its $5M-$7M projection given its pretty good reviews of 78% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. We’ll see.

 

Focus Features has the Ethan Coen directed comedy caper Drive-Away Dolls. They moved the movie out of the fall due to the actors strike so that it has a shot at some livelihood. Despite a NYC premiere and reviews at 68% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes — it has none. So much, that the distributor isn’t reporting preview grosses today. That means the movie made less than the $700K they did report for Lisa Frankenstein on its previews, however that included previews outside Thursday. Oy. Industry estimates are figuring around $450K. Lisa Frankenstein with its fresh face cast opened to $3.6M; and Drive-Away Dolls could be lower or about the same. How is that possible? Coen Brother=hip. Margaret Qualley, Beanie Feldstein, Geraldine Viswanathan and Matt Damon=hip. Tracker Quorum reports, “Sadly, Focus struggled to build awareness for the film. Dolls arrives in theaters with only 20% awareness. Of the 17 films over the past two years with awareness of 20% or lower, none opened above $4M. That’s a challenging trend to buck.” 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Issac Newton Global Phenomenon

Issac Newton

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Sony/Crunchyroll’s Demon Slayer Kimetsu no Yaiba -To the Hashira Training had the most action among three wide entries last night in previews with $1.8M from 1,870 locations that started showtimes at 4PM. That was boosted, in standard Crunchyroll fashion, by PLFs and Imax. The movie is only suppose to do in the high single digits this weekend, much lower than other Demon Slayer movies as it’s a TV episode that’s been streamed on Crunchyroll, just shown on the big screen for the first time. In sum, it’s not a movie. 2021’s Demon Slayer movie posted $3.8M in previews.

Edited by Issac Newton
Link to comment
Share on other sites


BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Bad for both Ordinary Angels and Drive Away Dolls. I thought Ordinary Angels would get the religious folks to bump it up but no. 

Everyone knows what's coming next weekend and are wisely keeping their wallets closed for now.

450_1000.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Astonished 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Bad for both Ordinary Angels and Drive Away Dolls. I thought Ordinary Angels would get the religious folks to bump it up but no. 

 

Mother Cabrini is in 2 weeks, and religious GA are like other GA - they aren't gonna spend for movies week after week, and you already have the Chosen episodes around to appeal to them as well.

 

So, it might be a case of too much religious stuff at too high a price...and if it's religious and those folks have to choose, they are gonna go with known quantities vs unknown ones...

 

That said, I have 2 free tickets for Sunday that I got on an Atom deal, so they did try to hype the movie in presales 2 weeks ago to build momentum (b/c if I see free tickets, I always grab them and then decide)...and I still might not go b/c the timing is bad.  So, they did try to even bring folks in with free to get WOM and just knowledge of the movie out there...and it didn't really help b/c there's just too much for that tiny sliver of the market to support - they just don't go to the movies that often.

 

EDIT TO ADD: The free tickets were NOT pay it forward, but just regular free tickets that some low level horror movies also give.  Limited to X amount and only in certain areas (b/c the movies with free tickets don't tend to open at every normal wide location), but totally free.

Edited by TwoMisfits
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Mother Cabrini is in 2 weeks, and religious GA are like other GA - they aren't gonna spend for movies week after week, and you already have the Chosen episodes around to appeal to them as well.

 

So, it might be a case of too much religious stuff at too high a price...and if it's religious and those folks have to choose, they are gonna go with known quantities vs unknown ones...

 

That said, I have 2 free tickets for Sunday that I got on an Atom deal, so they did try to hype the movie in presales 2 weeks ago to build momentum (b/c if I see free tickets, I always grab them and then decide)...and I still might not go b/c the timing is bad.  So, they did try to even bring folks in with free to get WOM and just knowledge of the movie out there...and it didn't really help b/c there's just too much for that tiny sliver of the market to support - they just don't go to the movies that often.

 

EDIT TO ADD: The free tickets were NOT pay it forward, but just regular free tickets that some low level horror movies also give.  Limited to X amount and only in certain areas (b/c the movies with free tickets don't tend to open at every normal wide location), but totally free.

I’m not sure what Mother Cabrini is? But yes it could be competition but the Chosen eps are at a very low level too, so this is still a misfire. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m not sure what Mother Cabrini is? But yes it could be competition but the Chosen eps are at a very low level too, so this is still a misfire. 

 

(Mother) Cabrini is the follow up movie from the director of Sound of Freedom.  Like SoF, it's not 100% religious, but instead is the true story of an Italian Catholic immigrant (Francesca Cabrini) who, after seeing the woeful conditions of the slums of NY, works to persuade the mayor of NYC to provide housing and healthcare for hundreds of orphaned children.  It's being released on International Women's Day.

 

And, for Catholics, she is the 1st American saint.

Edited by TwoMisfits
  • Astonished 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites








TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)

OT: So to be a completionist for all 2023 supers, I watched The Marvels last night.  It had 20 minutes of good movie in it.  Unfortunately, it was a 92 minute movie that felt like 2 hours 15 minutes with the sheer amount of plot dumping (not seen since the Eternals, although I haven't started 2024 supers yet).  I HATED the 1st 20 minutes and I disliked everything from the singing planet onward.  But for that time in between, they had something...but totally lost it.

 

It's bottom tier for the year with Ant Man 3, Flash, and Blue Beetle (which almost squeaks out of the bottom tier b/c of their stellar opening act).  I'd give it a D+...and won't be rewatching.

 

Still no more movies for a top 2023 movie list...not looking like I'll find even 10 worthy to turn in...but Oppy is on my list when I find a full day or 3 nights...which is gonna be rough with 1 week to go...

Edited by TwoMisfits
Link to comment
Share on other sites


filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted

The SAG Awards are tomorrow night so at least something is happening in Hollywood this weekend. 

 

Both openers were dumped unceremoniously after being pivoted from the fall due to the strikes so reasonable to assume they didn't know what to do with these movies. Drive-Away Dolls will find a much bigger audience on streaming I imagine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept