Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[leoh]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadline and Gitesh prob will give 28 est today, if they give. They will be basing that on 20.2 fri

 

so????? was it 28M or 29M today?

 

or will we only be sure on Monday when actuals are officially reported?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 3 by leoh

[leoh]

12 hours ago, dallas said:

Yeah I wasn't trying to call you out in bad faith or anything, apologies if it seemed that way. And I do agree that all this $1B talk is too much. $600M or higher is a fantastic target for a movie like this, it doesn't need $1B to be a success. 

don’t worry.

 

that was really funny, I laughed when I read it ngl hahah

 

but yeah You, Shawn, @TheFlatLannister, @Porthos and some other trackers were always part of the realistic group as well when people were still believing 100M Ow or 1bi ww were “still in cards”. Do you remember? Even @Shawn Robbins was called out because at that time he was projecting that 100M+ was NOT a possibility at all (now we know he was always right about this lol)

 

At least we’re now discussing about an 80M OW, which is a way more realistic discussion than those ones that were popping up on this forum 5 weeks ago hahah

Edited March 3 by leoh

[von Kenni]

12 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

so????? It was 28M or 29M today?

 

or will we only be sure on Monday when actuals are officially reported?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My money is on Charlie. He's saying that they are projecting from the wrong baseline Saturday actuals, i.e. that Friday is $20.2M because the reported previews total was $12M and reported Friday with previews $32.2M (32.2-12=20.2). Charlie and some of the other trackers conclude that the $12M is a rounded number and the exact number is some hundreds of thousands less and true Friday is higher than $20.2M, i.e. Deadline's and Gitesh's expected baselines for Saturday projection. My (amateur) reading of MTC1 is aligned with Charlie's estimates as well and MTC1 was pretty spot on with Dune Part 1 too.

 

As a side note, even with $28M Sat, $80M OW is a slam dunk. Highly unlikely that Part 2 would get around 28-30% Sunday drop based on its weekend performance and presales.

[Daxtreme]

4 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

WTF is everyone on about. Where is this 500M doom and gloom coming from?

 

Dune 1 made 2.6x its OW domestic while being widely available on streaming Day 1. Dune 2 at minimum opens with 75M and 2.6x of that already 200M. I am willing to bet that it hit 3x for like 230M or so. 

 

Dune 1 made 300M OS. This one is opening at least 50% larger in every market, some even doubling. Same legs send it almost 450M OS already. Personally, I see it hitting 500-550M for much better reception.

 

Even at lower end for both DOM and OS, it is making 600M WW, and high end 750M+. That's is blockbuster level for sure, especially with a very reasonable budget of under 190M. 

 

This movie is literally firing on all cylinders from quality to reception of critics and audiences and box office number alike and some of you guys are still like puff this thing flops eck so meh. WHAT???

 

 

"everyone". It's literally just one person, let's stop feeding that one person and poof, the doom and gloom stops.

 

Anyway with this Saturday... it could almost be considered off-topic now      

[Daxtreme]

I literally just finished a game of the board game made for the Dune 2 movie.

 

Next up, the movie. Hype! Going tomorrow, gonna contribute to Sunday legs. There are 8 of us

 

You can thank me later when we get a 21% drop

Edited March 3 by Daxtreme

[Rthmessiah]

Sat had been going with 29

[von Kenni]

15 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

I literally just finished a game of the board game made for the Dune 2 movie.

 

Next up, the movie. Hype! Going tomorrow, gonna contribute to Sunday legs. There are 8 of us

 

You can thank me later when we get a 21% drop

Whaaaat!? There's a board game? And I missed it. Is it any good? E.g. comparing to Settlers of Catan - Cities and Knights?

[HummingLemon496]

Messiah Legion

[JustLurking]

4 hours ago, simoimo19 said:

 

We are so fucking back.

[ando]

My local theatre- Tuesday IMAX (408 seats)

 

2:45 pm- 55% full

6:30 pm- 87% full

10:15 pm- 59% full (I have center seat, best row for this showing)

 

Monday is a bit lower. Both Wednesday and Thursday 6:30 pm shows already quite dang full at 72%. 

 

I imagine by the time each show rolls around, it's just full. 

Edited March 3 by ando

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, Rthmessiah said:

Sat had been going with 29

Yeah this is doing 80M minimum even if SUN drop is bad but there’s no reason to expect this honestly

 

We’ll probably only now how small SUN drop will be on MON, but 85M feels like a reasonable possibility now

 

Very impressive considering the previews ended up being just ~9M. Really not a frontloaded franchise afterall

[vale9001]

In Italy saturday got a +127% jump from Friday.

 

As said It's a 3 hours movie for adults so you shouldn't expect everything to play like It's spider man or hunger games with people having time to see It at the 3pm of a working day.

 

Saying that I hope WOM can involve youngest people with the time. 

Edited March 3 by vale9001

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

So Dune had a lower Thursday than expected, but IM'd better than expected, ending in the expected mid-80s range...

No it had the expected Previews of 12 and expected IM of 7.

 

The Golden Path 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Legion Again said:

No it had the expected Previews of 12 and expected IM of 7.

 

The Golden Path 

If my club works out who's getting the credit?

[vale9001]

With an 82-85M first weekend now becames interesting if second weekend can be >> First weekend of the first movie. 

Edited March 3 by vale9001

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

If my club works out who's getting the credit?

I mean I was OUT at closing time, so

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

I mean I was OUT at closing time, so

[ando]

So Timothee is the lead in the two biggest films since last summer. Pretty crazy moment for him. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

12 minutes ago, ando said:

So Timothee is the lead in the two biggest films since last summer. Pretty crazy moment for him. 

And two drastically different performances too, like completely opposite.

[titanic2187]

 

45 minutes ago, Rthmessiah said:

Sat had been going with 29

The real and sole messiah!

 

So dune will be the first 100m movie of the year, ahead of One love. The best cinemascore in Denis’s filmography means something. In fact, I haven’t felt such an intense and passionate online praise for a movie in a long while. Glad it begin to show some sign the passionate love is spreading to a wider public.