2025 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Eric the Marxist]

Anecdotal, but I've had two different people at work today come up to me and talk to me about how excited they were for the new live-action Lilo and Stitch. It's also got massive views and likes on Instagram and TikTok. Way more than for Mufasa and Snow White (they aren't slouches either!) Don't know if I think it will win the summer or not just yet, but it's going to be in the top three easily. Only Jurassic World or Superman seem like the only potential upsetters.

 

Won't win domestically though. Right now, I'm thinking it's either Zootopia or Avatar.

[Torontofan]

Avatar will win International and Worldwide for sure...

 

I think it may decline from Way of Water but China will do well so thinking it still do 2 billion as it may increase by 100-200 million there alone. 

 

 

[Mr Roark]

Avatar is a very leggy franchise so everything depends on the quality of the film. If Cameron delivers and WOM start to spread that the new film feels different and fresh from the previous two it may very well explode and I mean $700M+ DOM. A new super cool fire tribe, a new badass villain crueler than Quaritch and higher emotional stakes are pretty nice indicators that Cameron may be onto something here. Let’s not forget anyway that WoW was widely well received and the common feeling among the ones that didn’t loved the first one is that the sequel is better…

[HummingLemon496]

If we get lucky in some areas, I think the 2025 top 3 can roughly mirror the 2019 top 3. Here me out

 

2019 top 3:

 

1. Avengers: Endgame - $2.797B

2. The Lion King - $1.657B

3. Frozen II - $1.450B

 

Avatar 3 = Avengers: Endgame (Avatar 2 with a non-COVID China would've done around $2.7B+ so it's not that unreasonable)

Zootopia 2 = The Lion King (this is where Inside Out 2 will end up roughly)

Minecraft = Frozen II (it's a coinflip between the next Barbie and the next Detective Pikchu)

Edited August 13 by HummingLemon496

[DAJK]

I’m definitely in the minority but I don’t think Zootopia 2 will be the phenomenon that many think. The first is well-liked, but I feel like Inside Out had far more “cultural impact” and is more widely-remembered than Zootopia. While it’s got it’s online fans, a lot of what I hear irl (anecdotal, sure) about Zootopia is “that kids movie about animals… it was pretty good, wasn’t it?”

 

I’m going with 400-450M for now, at least until I see Moana numbers this fall.

[kayumanggi]

new title: BENEATH THE STORM

release: August 01, 2025

[kayumanggi]

[filmnerdjamie]

Right or wrong. Fuck it.

 

1. Zootopia 2 wins worldwide.

2. No $1B grossers next summer.

3. Superman wins next summer domestically.

4. Jurassic World: Rebirth wins next summer worldwide. Albeit continuing with diminishing returns.

5. Flowervale Street is the Bridesmaids to Jurassic World's The Hangover Part II next summer. The latter makes more but the former walks away with all the buzz/good audience reactions.

6. Michael is #3 top-earner worldwide behind Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash.

[Bob Train]

1. Avatar 3 $2.3b 

2. Minecraft $1.3b

3. Michael $1.2b

4. Zootopia 2 $1.1b

5. JW:R $1b

6. Passion 2 $900m

7. Superman $800m

8. F4 $750m

9. HTTYD $650m

10. MI8 $600m

Edited August 18 by Bob Train

[HummingLemon496]

40 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

1. Avatar 3 $2.3b 

2. Minecraft $1.3b

3. Michael $1.2b

4. Zootopia 2 $1.1b

5. JW:R $1b

6. Passion 2 $900m

7. Superman $800m

8. F4 $750m

9. HTTYD $650m

10. MI8 $600m

Why would Superman make more than The Batman?

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Why would Superman make more than The Batman?

Possibly because it will be a brighter more uplifting movie that families can go see. The Batman was kind of dark and not exactly a feel good all audience movie. 

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Possibly because it will be a brighter more uplifting movie that families can go see. The Batman was kind of dark and not exactly a feel good all audience movie. 

Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) made more than The Batman so I guess Superman could

[justnumbers]

Michael is being overpredicted to shit

[marveldcfox]

4 hours ago, justnumbers said:

Michael is being overpredicted to shit

I see 500M WW if it turns out to be good. I don't trust lionsgate's marketing department. 

[DAJK]

I do think if anything is going to hold Michael back, it’s Lionsgate. If this was Universal, I’d have no problem predicting 300M DOM 1B WW. But something just gives me the feeling that they’re going to do something stupid like sell it to a streamer in Canada/OS (Prime Video) and release it in 2250 locations in the US for a 2-week run. It just feels like they hate money at this point.

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

I do think if anything is going to hold Michael back, it’s Lionsgate. If this was Universal, I’d have no problem predicting 300M DOM 1B WW. But something just gives me the feeling that they’re going to do something stupid like sell it to a streamer in Canada/OS (Prime Video) and release it in 2250 locations in the US for a 2-week run. It just feels like they hate money at this point.

Universal is distributing overseas

[Reed121]

Michael is being underestimated if anything. There’s a reason why it has a budget over 150m and why Universal are distributing everywhere overseas except Japan. You’ll have an idea of how big it will be when the teaser drops.

[AnthonyJPHer]

I’ve been extremely focused on 2024 predictions (mostly trying to predict Joker 2, Moana 2 and Mufasa), but I thought I should throw my predictions out there for 2025. For both domestic and OS and WW.

 

Top Five DOMESTIC 2025 -

1: Avatar: Fire and Ash - 145m OW / 750m DOM (5.2x legs)

 

2: Zootopia 2 - 125m OW / 568m DOM (4.55x legs assuming same legs as original. Inside Out 2 had better legs than Inside Out 1 so it isn’t impossible)

 

3: Jurassic World: Rebirth - 140m OW/ 400m DOM (I think this movie will be better received than Dominion and benefit from good WOM. These movies are always monsters domestically. Dominion was awful and still made 375m DOM)

 

4: Minecraft - 100m OW / 385m DOM

 

5: Michael - 95m OW / 350m DOM (similar legs to Aladdin. Good opening but not huge but crazy good legs)

 

Top Five OVERSEAS 2025 -

1: Avatar: Fire and Ash - 1.7B OS

2: Zootopia 2 - 800m OS

 

3: Minecraft - 680m OS

 

4: Jurassic World: Rebirth - 650m OS

 

5: Michael - 600m OS

 

Top Five WORLDWIDE 2025 - 

1: Avatar: Fire and Ash - 2.45B

 

2: Zootopia 2 - 1.36B

 

3: Minecraft - 1.065B

 

4: Jurassic World: Rebirth - 1.05B

 

5: Michael - 950m

 

Just a note, I’m a little iffy on 2025. The only guarantee on this list is Avatar: Fire and Ash and possibly Zootopia but that’s also a little bit of a wildcard right now. It’s a very unpredictable year other than the number one film. Avatar 3 will easily win DOM, OS, and WW. It won’t even be a contest honestly. The only film that beat Avatar 2  domestically in 2022 was Top Gun Maverick and that was a once in a life time phenomenon that I didn’t think any film in 2025 can replicate. Avatar 2 did easily win OS and WW but Avatar 3 should win the triple crown 

Edited August 20 by AnthonyJPHer

[Jaxon5]

On 8/12/2024 at 10:05 PM, Mr Roark said:

Avatar is a very leggy franchise so everything depends on the quality of the film. If Cameron delivers and WOM start to spread that the new film feels different and fresh from the previous two it may very well explode and I mean $700M+ DOM. A new super cool fire tribe, a new badass villain crueler than Quaritch and higher emotional stakes are pretty nice indicators that Cameron may be onto something here. Let’s not forget anyway that WoW was widely well received and the common feeling among the ones that didn’t loved the first one is that the sequel is better…

I've met no-one who thinks this. 

[thajdikt]

9 minutes ago, Jaxon5 said:

I've met no-one who thinks this. 

I think this. Avatar 1 is mid. Avatar 2 is Fantastic