Coco | Pixar / Lee Unkrich | Now playing | #1 all-time in Mexico

[YM!]

Just now, Fancyarcher said:

At best I expect it to be another mid-budgeted mediocre animated film, that Sony tries to sell based off its cast. Likely won't work though. 

Same but if it looked good to audiences, I could’ve seen big things from it. It could’ve be a HT like success if it had attracted both Christians, families and the GA. However it looked like shit and probably is and will likely do Arthur Christmas numbers.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

 

You think Coco will only make $50m DOM? Or that The Star will make $100m+? You can list the similarities between Coco, Kubo and BoL, but that doesn’t mean they’re the same movies. The Pixar name isn’t why I’m interested in this movie, the story and animation is why. Coco gives me an Inside Out vibe, and no I'm not saying it’ll do as well as Inside Out. I just think it’ll do really well with families while The Star seems more niche. 

Before the year, I would have said Coco would have been $130-$140M (Pixar name has a high floor - I know Disney fans) and The Star would have been over that, probably $140-$150M...

 

I still don't know that Coco goes above my number - I still am seeing rotten tomatoes must see numbers woefully low and no one I know talking about taking their kids...but in the comparison, I would say The Star is much less likely to get to my original Jan 17 number...but I won't rule that out, either, until it opens and we see if it catches on or catches cold...

[Fancyarcher]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Same but if it looked good to audiences, I could’ve seen big things from it. It could’ve be a HT like success if it had attracted both Christians, families and the GA. However it looked like shit and probably is and will likely do Arthur Christmas numbers.

I'm expecting around 50m. It could have done much more, but at best it'll get a boost from thanksgiving and that's it. Don't see it doing well as The Emoji movie either (sad), since it has way more competition. 

[Deja23]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

The Star would have been over that, probably $140-$150M...

 

Man...if an animated movie like The Star has potential to get those numbers DOM, no wonder we might be getting an Emoji Movie sequel. 

[YM!]

Here’s my initial predictions for both: ie January 2017

Coco: $65M-$85M 5 Day/$220M-$270M

Star: $30M-$45M OW/$120M-$150M

 

 

Now:

Coco: $65M-$80M 5 Day/$215M-$270M

Star: $10M-$15M OW/$45M-$60M

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

I'm expecting around 50m. It could have done much more, but at best it'll get a boost from thanksgiving and that's it. Don't see it doing well as The Emoji movie either (sad), since it has way more competition. 

This so much. $50M is along the lines of Lost Village and Arthur Christmas. Sony Animation should have a nice rebound in 2018 though.

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

This so much. $50M is along the lines of Lost Village and Arthur Christmas. Sony Animation should have a nice rebound in 2018 though.

I can see Hotel Transylvania 3 doing well (though I think it would have done better in October), and Peter Rabbit doing okay. 

[YM!]

Just now, Fancyarcher said:

I can see Hotel Transylvania 3 doing well (though I think it would have done better in October), and Peter Rabbit doing okay. 

Considering the summer animation slate, and how barren it is I can see it pull an IA3. Rabbit should do $100M but nothing else higher, should be a good alternative to Panther, and Miles Morales can make money.

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, YourMother said:

Considering the summer animation slate, and how barren it is I can see it pull an IA3. Rabbit should do $100M but nothing else higher, should be a good alternative to Panther, and Miles Morales can make money.

I think Hotel Transylvania will make less then the first two, but still do reasonably well. I'm not 100% sold on Rabbit doing $100m, sounds like a bit of a niche concept to me, however I do think that animated Spider-Man movie could do well, and could be quite good as well. 

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Sometimes you don't market a movie, and it still somehow hits...

 

The Passion of the Christ was not marketed (at least money wise) either...http://adage.com/article/special-report-marketing-50/passion-christ/101012/

 

Now, this won't have nearly THAT kinda draw b/c they are dialing down the religiousness for this movie, not dialing it up...but then again, that one went for realism and the suffering of the Lenten season...while Christmas is, and has always had, a more celebratory preparation season...

 

Yes, different movie going season then, too...but as people are pointing out, we've had a dry season for animation since spring, so if Emoji could drag in so many folks on cynicism just b/c the movie had vibrant colors and poop, who knows how many they might pull in when parents say "we gotta celebrate baby Jesus' birthday before Santa can come"...

 

The Passion of the Christ was no typical movie. Anyone who actually was around in February 2004 would know that.

[Jonwo]

28 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Sometimes you don't market a movie, and it still somehow hits...

 

The Passion of the Christ was not marketed (at least money wise) either...http://adage.com/article/special-report-marketing-50/passion-christ/101012/

 

Now, this won't have nearly THAT kinda draw b/c they are dialing down the religiousness for this movie, not dialing it up...but then again, that one went for realism and the suffering of the Lenten season...while Christmas is, and has always had, a more celebratory preparation season...

 

Yes, different movie going season then, too...but as people are pointing out, we've had a dry season for animation since spring, so if Emoji could drag in so many folks on cynicism just b/c the movie had vibrant colors and poop, who knows how many they might pull in when parents say "we gotta celebrate baby Jesus' birthday before Santa can come"...

 

The Emoji Movie has no competition in August, The Star has Coco just a week later and holdovers like DH2. 

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Passion of the Christ was no typical movie. Anyone who actually was around in February 2004 would know that.

I'm sure Christians would be lining up in their droves to see twerking doves instead of JL on the 17th! 

[filmlover]

Just now, Jonwo said:

The Emoji Movie has no competition in August, The Star has Coco just a week later and holdovers like DH2. 

I'm sure Christians would be lining up in their droves to see twerking doves instead of JL on the 17th! 

The Star has Oprah playing a camel. That's reason enough to see it for most bible-thumpers.

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

The Star has Oprah playing a camel. That's reason enough to see it for most bible-thumpers.

With that star power, Coco is doomed 

[Carlangonz]

So yeah, actuals are beating estimates again...

 

$206.14M MXN/$535.37M total

$10.74M USD/$27.91M total

 

Biggest second weekend ever

6th fastest $500M grosser

 

Next weekend will be 

#3 animated all-time

#1 of 2017

#8 all-time

 

[PNF2187]

1 hour ago, Carlangonz said:

So yeah, actuals are beating estimates again...

 

$206.14M MXN/$535.37M total

$10.74M USD/$27.91M total

 

Biggest second weekend ever

6th fastest $500M grosser

 

Next weekend will be 

#3 animated all-time

#1 of 2017

#8 all-time

 

Oh wow, what should we expect as the final gross for this? Is $50M possible?

[meriodejaneiro]

I don't know why people are underestimating Coco that much. I think the movie is attractive enough (visual and thematically) to get InsideOut numbers ... 800M+

[Carlangonz]

22 minutes ago, PNF2187 said:

Oh wow, what should we expect as the final gross for this? Is $50M possible?

Everything depends on people's interest to keep seeing it. It has a shot at dethroning Avengers (#1 All-time, $827M MXN) but still would be $100M away of doing $50M USD.

 

I'd say $40M-$42M is the realistic goal right now.

[filmlover]

Billboards for this are now showing up along I-95 (like they do for all Disney-branded films).

[Carlangonz]

 

Tickets now on sale for US/Canada

[Seth Irskens]

Here's Our Reaction/Review to This Wonderful Final new Trailer for Coco! Hope y'all like it!