Weekend Thread (5/17-19/2024) | WEEKEND ESTIMATES: $35M for IF, $12M for Strangers, $2.85M for Back to Black, $26M for Apes

[Eric Lasagna]

23 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Strong hold for Apes. Expected high 5s to 6 for Friday 

25m+ weekend.

Let's go 160M+ .

 

And you doubted me 🤪

 

Happy to see this going for about 2.75x or so. Maybe even do something like Dial of Destiny’s 2.9x

[Cmasterclay]

Pretty good for IF honestly, I pegged it for low 20s a month ago. Like The Fall Guy, I'm not gonna go sky is falling on a movie I had much lower expectations than the rest of the board. When the Watchers opens to 12m and Bikeriders does 5m and Horizon does 14m, then I'll have my meltdown.

[Eric Lasagna]

IF is a weird one, because this is opening on the higher end of non-NTCs despite mediocre reviews  and should gross a fine enough total in the end. But when studio tracking had it at 40M+, it’s hard to really commend it as a success. I dunno how to respond if I’m being honest.

[Eric Lasagna]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Pretty good for IF honestly, I pegged it for low 20s a month ago. Like The Fall Guy, I'm not gonna go sky is falling on a movie I had much lower expectations than the rest of the board. When the Watchers opens to 12m and Bikeriders does 5m and Horizon does 14m, then I'll have my meltdown.

So…you’re saying I gotta clean up your mess in a month? Because that’s where I am for all those movies lol 😂 

[AniNate]

It's still a down week overall, so IF opening under tracking just makes it feel more blah, even if the movie will probably be a decent success. Either way Krasinski's going back to the quiet place well after it and it's not something adults are passionately getting behind from an artistic pov, so whatever positive impact it might have for the "original auteur movies" platform will be low key.

[Boxofficerules]

That a good number for Strangers? I feel it may not stick around for very long.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Eric Lasagna]

10 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

That a good number for Strangers? I feel it may not stick around for very long.

Could be worse!

[filmlover]

Tracking threw things off a bit for IF. The opening isn't the worst case scenario given the mediocre reviews.

 

20 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Pretty good for IF honestly, I pegged it for low 20s a month ago. Like The Fall Guy, I'm not gonna go sky is falling on a movie I had much lower expectations than the rest of the board. When the Watchers opens to 12m and Bikeriders does 5m and Horizon does 14m, then I'll have my meltdown.

None of those movies were expected to break out big in the first place (I thought The Watchers had potential when the marketing began but things are not pointing in that direction), so no need.

[emoviefan]

Not bad for IF considering the reviews and such. Will see if WOM leads to legs and if Garfield does not break out next week. Apes held a lot better than I was afraid it was going to. If Sat sees a strong jump and Sunday holds well than 23-26 seems the range for the weekend. Better than War's second weekend.

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Tracking threw things off a bit for IF. The opening isn't the worst case scenario given the mediocre reviews.

 

None of those movies were expected to break out big in the first place (I thought The Watchers had potential when the marketing began but things are not pointing in that direction), so no need.

I don't maybe we should wait until we see how Horizon does at it's Cannes screening tomorrow. If it really reviews well that may give it a boost. Yes I know the Yellowstone audience is not going to get off the couch and go. Esp with the 3 hour runtime. Will see.

[abracadabra1998]

Tbh over at the tracking thread most trackers always were pretty suspicious of that $40 Million number being thrown around. We all were predicting $1.5-2 million previews over the last few days and I personally could never see this getting to that number.

 

Anyways, it’s a good number, likely will break even at the global box office, it’ll probably be a decent moneymaker streaming/VOD film as family movies usually are, and it’s a welcome sign to the BO when it’s outgrossing some other family IP sequels like Trolls 3. 

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, elhassane31 said:

is that good enough for a 400m finish? I believe that's the break even point

There is no break even point

[charlie Jatinder]

$40M felt too big really. $35M will be a very good opening for this IMO. In fact $30M itself be pretty great.

[Krissykins]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Tracking threw things off a bit for IF. The opening isn't the worst case scenario given the mediocre reviews.

 

None of those movies were expected to break out big in the first place (I thought The Watchers had potential when the marketing began but things are not pointing in that direction), so no need.

Remember Shawn confirmed the $40m tracking was put out there by Paramount themselves. 
 

Tracking here indicates high 20s to 30s so only Paramount did the throwing off themselves. 

[Krissykins]

Glad Disney/Fox are fudging The First Omen over $20m with Apes money. +340% Friday increase despite losing more locations lol. Film deserved more, hopefully it does well on digital and Hulu at the end of the month. 

[TwoMisfits]

36 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

That a good number for Strangers? I feel it may not stick around for very long.

 

I also think it will have a short run, but then be rereleased right before the 2nd chapter with both double bills with the sequel and day before sequel arrives viewings...

[wboxoffice]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Amy Winehouse biopic being totally rejected could be seen coming from miles away. The Whitney movie flopping made it evident no one was here for biopics about artists defined more by their declines to the point of premature death than their work (it's up to Michael next year to try and buck that trend).

 

Her downfall was depressing enough to watch while it happened (made even worse by the fact her demons were mostly not taken seriously until it was too late), there definitely wasn't an audience (outside of I guess the UK) willing to endure it all over again so soon.

 

It also has to do with the marketing campaign, both of those movies didn't get anywhere the promotion campaign of Elvis, Bohemian Rhapsody, Bob Marley and Rocketman that were treated like superhero movies with TV Spots and promotion everywhere.  Also the Priscilla movie that featured the Elvis character all over it also barely had promo, I bet 90% of Elvis fans didn't even know that movie exists.  The same for Respect and Judy. These movies really had very limited and targeted promo.  Some people also say that biopics about women usually don't do as well and are not treated the same, and I find this to be somewhat true... 

 

Whitney has sales, fame, streaming/views up there with anyone, and I hear her songs in public every day, but then again she would have been very disappointed in a movie talking about her lesbian relationship, a secret that she took with her to the grave, or her drug problems, so I'm sure she would have wanted the movie to go unnoticed.  Not to mention that there have been many documentaries about her problems leading up to that biopic so people had enough.  Maybe in 30 years they can do another movie cause now it was too soon but hopefully one day they will remaster a concert of hers from her prime and put it on the big screen, that would be more appropriate and a better tribute....

Edited May 18 by wboxoffice

[ChipDerby]

Wildly impressive for a live action, original family film.

 

Can anyone even name another one? Heck, it's going to almost out gross Paddington 2 in one weekend...

[Krissykins]

45 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

That a good number for Strangers? I feel it may not stick around for very long.

I’d say it’s a win. Especially for Lionsgate. 
 

$8.5m budget and opening to more than the previous film can be seen as a win.
 

Hope it’s over $12m for the weekend. Haven’t seen it yet though, but at 13% lower than Tarot, Imaginary and Night Swim my expectations are on the floor lol. 

Edited May 18 by Krissykins