spizzer Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Oh you're right. I forgot about Dead Man's Chest. It still should end up in that clump of THG, SM1, DH2, and NM that all around the same.Yeah. Once we get the dynamics of the weekend breakdown we'll be able to make a better estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 I would not be shocked to see this reach $73-75 million today. But I also don't think we should extrapolate too much from the midnight number.Either way, I still see the record going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 I will be satisfied if it beats TDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 I think he meant relative to it getting to 280-320m. Which of course is correct.Hey, I predicted 163m, so I thought its total would be "in line" with TDK, and I hate to extrapolate from Midnights, but for it to make the same midnight number as TDK during this time of the year, indicates it's probably going higher. And his implication was that this would perform like TDK over the rest of the weekend. That implies similar dailies to me.Maybe I'm just being overly critical, but saying that right after a ridiculous extrapolation from IM2...I dunno, I just don't like that article much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Nothing changed. I expected 20m and 163m OW, so it's still in line with my prediction. Of course the record can go down, but the jury is still out. It's going to be decided by its Saturday and Sunday gross, so even a 70m+ Friday wouldn't seal it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted May 4, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted May 4, 2012 Ray's article?Yea, I was a bit surprised that he even made that extrapolation. I get his ultimate reasoning, I think, but it just seemed unnecessary to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Let's say it hits 70M flat18.7M Midnights51.3M Friday 53.1M Saturday (+3.5%)38.5M Sunday (-27.5%)161.6M OWTBH that Friday number would look pretty weak to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted May 4, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted May 4, 2012 It looks like TA sold about 30-35% more tickets than SM3 did at midnight. Granted, SM3 didn't have quite as wide a midnight release (IIRC). I still see a similar weekend performance. Saturday is going to be huge for this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 I agree Shawn. I think Saturday will top 60M.Which, due to massive inflation, still falls well short of the attendance record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 TA doing a huge OW only makes me think TDKR will do even better than I previously thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 So the admissions talk begins even TA hasnt broken the record yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 TA won't sniff any admissions records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 I still see ~70M as most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 So the admissions talk begins even TA hasnt broken the record yet?What's wrong with it? From SM1 to DMC to SM3 to TDK, the opening revenue record used to translate into opening admissions records. Potter 8 broke that trend and now it looks like that will become the norm going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 That one is at a huge disadvantage without 3D. And ghost, do you really think people aren't willing to pay the premium to see a movie they've been waiting for on opening weekend? Opening weekends are all about anticipation and hype. People are willing to pay the premium. Hell, the studios could stick a movie on 100% 3D screens and people would still pay to see it no matter what.But a movie has to be good or at least popular to warrant that kind of dedication.and if a movie motivates more people to pay higher premiums the records it breaks are fair game. Not just any movie can achieve that with higher prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 But a movie has to be good or at least popular to warrant that kind of dedication.and if a movie motivates more people to pay higher premiums the records it breaks are fair game. Not just any movie can achieve that with higher prices.When we're talking about movies that sold tickets in the same neighborhood as SM1, TDK, SM3, and DMC, we're talking about movies that had some of the biggest demand ever on opening weekend. They definitely would have benefited in the same way from the 3D premiums just like DH2 and Avengers are benefiting from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 This will be my first and only post for a while, as I just got back from my second viewing of Avengers in 9 hours. So I have to take a nap..lol.....but my theater was insane today. My 10:30 IMAX was about 90% full. The Imax after that had sold out and the 7 and 10:30 IMAX were already sold out. The 3D's were selling "well" and the 2D has one sell out for 7 tonight. I think this will do 75-80 OD, with midnights. Now some shut eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted May 4, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted May 4, 2012 What's wrong with it? From SM1 to DMC to SM3 to TDK, the opening revenue record used to translate into opening admissions records. Potter 8 broke that trend and now it looks like that will become the norm going forward.Agreed. I've felt for awhile that the dynamic between TDKR and TA will be perfect. TA has a great shot at the gross record, but I still firmly believe TDKR will sell more tickets.Long run, though...who knows. TA's word of mouth is going to be sick and it has little to stand in its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 But a movie has to be good or at least popular to warrant that kind of dedication.and if a movie motivates more people to pay higher premiums the records it breaks are fair game. Not just any movie can achieve that with higher prices.That's true if it has good legs, but if someone's willing to see a 2.5 hour movie at midnight on a weekday then the 3D surcharge is negligible to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 This will be my first and only post for a while, as I just got back from my second viewing of Avengers in 9 hours. So I have to take a nap..lol.....but my theater was insane today. My 10:30 IMAX was about 90% full. The Imax after that had sold out and the 7 and 10:30 IMAX were already sold out. The 3D's were selling "well" and the 2D has one sell out for 7 tonight. I think this will do 75-80 OD, with midnights. Now some shut eye.Night B. And I agree with your range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...