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CJohn

Weekend estimates thread TA 103,052,274!!

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Nah. Its not getting anywhere near that mark. Its only major market left to open in is Japan (in August, IIRC). DH2's $1.3b is the last realistic target at this point.

I'm new and aware that next to you I know nothing about box office numbers. With that said, I think you are understimating THE AVENGERS, it does have a shot against AVATAR. :P
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I think its important to remember that these trades like Variety forecast on the conservative end most of the time on purpose. Not sure if that was the case or not this time, but, its generally frowned up in the industry to high-ball box office forecasts. A publication looks way more ridiculous when they over-shoot all of the time than when they under-estimate most of the time.

Very well, but they should at least demonstrate a certain understanding of box office trends and behavior.
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I think its important to remember that these trades like Variety forecast on the conservative end most of the time on purpose. Not sure if that was the case or not this time, but, its generally frowned up in the industry to high-ball box office forecasts. A publication looks way more ridiculous when they over-shoot all of the time than when they under-estimate most of the time.

Yes, but to even imply that a film could maintain it's Fri drop from opening day throughout the weekend, especially in this day and age, that's just immensely poor and flat out lazy journalism.
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Very well, but they should at least demonstrate a certain understanding of box office trends and behavior.

Even just a rudimentary understanding would keep you from that sort of a mistake.
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I can see why people would say that it has a chance. I remember when SM1 opened with its epic numbers everywhere it was going "Titanic will soon sink" Heck they even said that for Matrix 2.

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Speaking of a different movie (yeah I know, how could I do such a thing?!), but I was nearly about to give up on THG for 400M. But... if these estimates hold up, and it is only 13M away at the end of the weekend... my faith has been restored. Go Katniss, go!!! :bravo:

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Does Mothers Day really help? In past years it didn't seem to.

Look at the Sunday drops from last year.

Unfortunately the movie that seems least likely to benefit from it will be The Avengers, if you comp with Fast Five/Thor, however I believe Avengers is playing much more like a family film than either of those. Add to that the sheer volume of demand and I think TA can manage a -25% drop on Sunday.

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Speaking of a different movie (yeah I know, how could I do such a thing?!), but I was nearly about to give up on THG for 400M. But... if these estimates hold up, and it is only 13M away at the end of the weekend... my faith has been restored. Go Katniss, go!!! :bravo:

Sub 20% drop is in range! Incredible! It took a big hit last weekend but it's chugging right along again, thank Merlin.Really, THG has had a fantastic run for a blockbuster not counting the mediocre 2nd/3rd weekends. Edited by rockNrollaDIM
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