JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Noctis]

 

Out of reach. <3

[mfantin65]

There was discussion in the other thread that they make more money by releasing the dvd when its hot and forego 10m or more in BO. There is no argument here. Can they even sell a million dvds in japan? The summer bo rev will be greater than the dvd sales. The dvd sales mite even be greater with a no 1 status down the road. They are just releasing it roboticly as if the run is over like WIR or tangled. OMG. Here is what I wrote to the investors email. Hopefully someone will review the numbers and have an epiphany.Hello,I track box office as a "brain teaser" hobby so to speak. I have been doing so since I was a kid tracking Jaws. I have never quite seen a run like Frozen has had in Japan. With less screens per movie and a delayed DVD release, a popular film runs like they did pre-1985(VCR)in the US and I tell you it's weekly numbers are holding better than Jaws, Star Wars or E.T.&nbsp; A table comparison can be viewed on this page of a box office forum. You'll see it's weekly drops are averaging just 3% after spring break is over at week 5.http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/3478-japan-box-office-elsa-reigns/page-315#entry1438791The reason I write is that my family trust owns a great deal of Disney stock and I believe that at least $100,000,000 in box office receipts will be lost by releasing Frozen on DVD in July. Also the DVD sales will be diminished by releasing it early because you won't be able to market it as the #1 all-time movie in Japan's history for revenue and attendance, as it will fall short of Spirited Away. Films of this caliber run for nine months in Japan like they used to in the US. Take a look at Avatar's Japan run here.http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&amp;country=JP&amp;id=avatar.htmSummer starts on July 16th and I estimate that it could still be raking in $7- 9m more per week, then there is the Obon holiday in August that will further boost sales. Like Avatar and Spirited Away, I believe it will continue to draw well for nine months, through to December.I believe it could get to $400,000,000 matching the domestic haul. However, just $260,000,000 with your DVD release date. I assume half of that missed revenue is Disneys and it is all profit as the production and marketing have already been paid for.&nbsp; $70,000,000 in earnings adds 4.2 cent per share to the 1.73 billion shares outstanding and adds greater than 1% to current earning of $3.90 per share. That's 88 cents in added stock value at your current P/E of 21 or 1.52 billion in market cap.Please take this under consideration and perhaps delay the DVD as the numbers above are quite considerable.Thank YouMichaelInvestor

Edited May 29, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[catlover]

DOFP is getting released in Japan today yes?

 

If by "today" you mean Friday then yes, it is.

[Queen Elsa Arendelle]

Yeah, Disney usually releases their movies in mid july, but frozen is not a normal Disney movie, there are always exceptions, and this movie should be one of them because it is still doing amazing box office  numbers and it has  a wonderful chance to challenge spirit away for the top spot!!! so why not wait a little longer? do they have a contract or something in japan to release it in that especific date! Oh, come on!

[catlover]

There was discussion in the other thread that they make more money by releasing the dvd when its hot and forego 10m or more in BO. There is no argument here. Can they even sell a million dvds in japan? The summer bo rev will be greater than the dvd sales. The dvd sales mite even be greater with a no 1 status down the road.

 

Yes, they can. Especially movies like Frozen. Data is incomplete, but there are at least 12 titles with DVD sales more than 1 million copies. Spirited Away sold more than 2 million, Finding Nemo more than 1.5 million. DVD sales are down but now we have BluRay sales to cover that. Having said that, I agree, with the early DVD release there will probably be at least a $50m loss from the box office, while the DVD/BluRay sales won't be that much different whether it's summer or winter release.

[Incarnadine]

Yeah, Disney usually releases their movies in mid july, but frozen is not a normal Disney movie, there are always exceptions, and this movie should be one of them because it is still doing amazing box office  numbers and it has  a wonderful chance to challenge spirit away for the top spot!!! so why not wait a little longer? do they have a contract or something in japan to release it in that especific date! Oh, come on!

Yeah, this definitely isn't the same situation as the domestic boxoffice where the DVD release probably only cost $10m in the theatrical run and was more than made up for by selling the DVD while the movie was red hot. The Japanese DVD release will easily cost 50-100m in boxoffice while I doubt DVD sales will even total that much (I have no idea how physical DVD sales are in Japan though).

[mfantin65]

;

Yes, they can. Especially movies like Frozen. Data is incomplete, but there are at least 12 titles with DVD sales more than 1 million copies. Spirited Away sold more than 2 million, Finding Nemo more than 1.5 million. DVD sales are down but now we have BluRay sales to cover that. Having said that, I agree, with the early DVD release there will probably be at least a $50m loss from the box office, while the DVD/BluRay sales won't be that much different whether it's summer or winter release.

If that were to play out, that's still a loss of 25m, their cut, and equates to a penny and a half per share which is huge on wall st. That make a big difference in a fiscal quarter. It is absolute foolishness.1.5m in sales x $30 maybe? Wow that's a huge loss of bo for less rev in dvd. And as we agree, they'll get those same dvd sales down the road. Edited May 29, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Ray]

Is there a precedence of any movie(s) continuing to play in theaters in Japan after the home video release?

[Quigley]

I am so glad Wreck-It Ralph wasn't a musical.

 

In other unrelated news, talking about being relaxed and all, you guys don't seem to be capable of relaxing either. It is just a movie into which you built too high expectations. Decrease your expectations and you might be surprised.

[mfantin65]

The bigger corporations are the dumber they get. They dont look at micro situations. When I lived in Florida it was hard to find a fan in december. Home depot, Lowe's and a few other stores dont carry them in winter. It was 80 dgrees out and 15m people live in florida, larger than dozens of warm countries but that was their national store policy. Banks lent money to people in jail for a house worth half the purchase price because they were clueless about the neighborhood or due diligence.. I can go on and on with these corporate stories. Now disney is clueless of a potentially huge japanese run.I read a book on the soviet union collapse. The larger an entity becomes and governed from the center, a greater likelyhood a collapse of the system occurs. The USSR disintegrated.so did our banking system.Corporation have taken everything over and are getting to be bigger and wealthier than nations. We're doomed!

[Murgatroyd]

Given the DVD release date, my projections put the final gross somewhere in the 25-27B yen range.

[Kalel009Shel]

In USD Avatar grossed $188.7M. it will be passed by frozen during next week. In yen (¥15.60 billion) and admissions (10.10 million) it was passed long ago. 

Frozen doesnt  deserve to beat Avatar I, no worries Juggernaut 2 is going to blow Frozen away bigtime...Im expecting 250-300+M in JApan and over 450M in CHina for  Juggernaut 2016. Lets see Frozen or Frozen 2 hang with that

[Kalel009Shel]

 

Out of reach. <3

Hah hah ,  glad too.. Frozen also doesnt deserve to beat HP7 part 2 either WW ..Go Harry Potter... Avengers  was also way betr than Frozen I. I hope part 2 has a far better story, dont know if they can match that let it go song's superiority though with the sequel.

 

You all ready for Frozen 2, I think the young sister will develop powers too.

[BadAtGender]

Frozen doesnt  deserve to beat Avatar I, no worries Juggernaut 2 is going to blow Frozen away bigtime...Im expecting 250-300+M in JApan and over 450M in CHina for  Juggernaut 2016. Lets see Frozen or Frozen 2 hang with that

 

Avatar 2 isn't going to come close to Frozen's Japan gross.

[Cynosure]

Frozen doesnt  deserve to beat Avatar I, no worries Juggernaut 2 is going to blow Frozen away bigtime...Im expecting 250-300+M in JApan and over 450M in CHina for  Juggernaut 2016. Lets see Frozen or Frozen 2 hang with that

 

No way. I would even be surprised if Avatar 2 did as well as Avatar in Japan. It likely won't have both the favorable exchange rate and the very high 3D share (3D has declined in Japan since then) that the first one had. 

Edited May 29, 2014 by Cynosure

[Incarnadine]

Frozen doesnt  deserve to beat Avatar I, no worries Juggernaut 2 is going to blow Frozen away bigtime...Im expecting 250-300+M in JApan and over 450M in CHina for  Juggernaut 2016. Lets see Frozen or Frozen 2 hang with that

 

If you think Avatar 2 will challenge or surpass Frozen numbers for Japan I suggest you lay off the

[Boxx93]

Disney sure likes to ejaculate prematurely... fucking idiots 

[mfantin65]

If they dont move back the sales date there is no point in tracking it anymore or owning the stock.I cant deal with sheer stupidity.

[edroger3]

All of us here are disappointed after knows the japanese DVD release date of Frozen, but I think we must know also the numbers in play. For example in North America in the week of Frozen DVD/BR release home video market generate a gross of 241M$ and Frozen had 70% of market share, so it grossed about 170M$, non counting digital download, VOD and rentals , so we have an estimate total over 200M$ only in first week and only in North America! Sources tell that at the end of the year Frozen could gross more in home cinema sales than in theatres.(Frozen is the highest grossing movie ever in digital download)

 

North America 2014 theatre gross vs home cinema gross (non counting digital download, VOD and rentals)

 

Wk  Theatre   Home Cinema   %

01  $190.086.612 $  126.710.000  66,66%
02  $188.789.877 $ 98.610.000  52,23%
03  $246.827.021 $  106.110.000  42,99%
04  $154.647.771 $   96.170.000  62,19%
05  $114.148.109 $  118.530.000 103,84%
06  $192.936.205 $  117.080.000  60,68%
07  $241.315.409 $  155.640.000  64,50%
08  $142.095.461 $  127.220.000  89,53%
09  $159.663.128 $  155.390.000  97,32%
10  $193.711.975 $  165.480.000  85,43%
11  $149.629.476 $  145.680.000  97,36%
12  $188.107.195 $  241.500.000 128,38% Frozen dvd release
13  $181.732.793 $  141.530.000  77,88%
14  $212.540.016 $  136.350.000  64,15%
15  $203.320.119 $  176.280.000  86,70%
16  $181.223.196 $ 89.690.000  49,49%
17  $151.087.596 $ 88.490.000  58,57%
18  $192.997.866 $ 91.350.000  47,33%
  $3.284.859.825 $2.377.810.000  72,39%

Edited May 29, 2014 by edroger

[Quigley]

I really hope all these predictions come true, but it will only take ONE SINGLE FILM that will overperform in the next 2 months to ruin everything. It's a lot to hope for.

 

Lol, I did believe this was gonna happen, but I never realised that this "one single film" would actually be itself.