JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Corpse]

Weekend Forecast [07/05-06]

 

 

01 (--) ¥680 million ($6.6 million), 0, Maleficent (Disney) NEW

02 (--) ¥230 million ($2.2 million), 0, ¥310 million ($3.0 million), Edge of Tomorrow (Warner Bros.) NEW

03 (01) ¥209 million ($2.0 million), -24%, ¥24.65 billion ($241.9 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 17

04 (02) ¥133 million ($1.2 million), -22%, ¥890 million ($8.7 million), Mission Impossible: Samurai (Shochiku) Week 3

05 (--) ¥90 million ($880,000), 0, ¥120 million ($1.1 million), Documentary of AKB48: The Time Has Come (Toho Video Division) NEW

06 (04) ¥82 million ($800,000), -27%, ¥340 million ($3.3 million), Thirst (Gaga) Week 2

07 (--) ¥75 million ($730,000), 0, Anpanman: The Apple Boy and Everyone's Wishes! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW

08 (03) ¥70 million ($680,000), -41%, ¥320 million ($3.1 million), Transcendence (Shochiku/Pony Canyon) Week 2

09 (05) ¥64 million ($620,000), -35%, ¥1.24 billion ($12.1 million), Noah (Paramount) Week 4

10 (06) ¥43 million ($410,000), -49%, ¥200 million ($1.9 million), The Grudge: The Beginning of the End (Showgate) Week 2

 

And after 16-consecutive weeks or 4-straight months, we will finally get a new #1 film at the box-office!  Congrats to Frozen for its incredible, record tying run atop the box-office.

 

>Maleficent looks poised to breakout (at least a a bit above expectations) with strong pre-sales and robust morning/afternoon ticket sales as well.  If it opens to ¥600/700 million ($6-7 million), then it could get it to ¥4.5-5 billion ($45-50 million).  

 

So, depending on where its run ends up in China and Mexico, Japan looks like it could be Angelina Jolie's best market once again (last 3 being Changeling, The Tourist, and Salt) since both of those markets look to finish below $50 million.

 

>Edge of Tomorrow is struggling somewhat out of the gate with a Friday that indicates a weekend of ¥200-250 million.  Last weekend's previews looked solid, and they were widespread, so they could be causing a deflated opening.  If its total is over ¥400 million ($4 million) after including Friday and last weekend's previews, I wouldn't be too worried about the "low" debut. It could still be a ¥2 billion ($20 million) contender, which would improve upon Oblivion by 50%.  Tom Cruise's star power in Japan does seem to be fading, however.  

Edited July 5, 2014 by Corpse

[jj99]

Yesss. Japan Better Stan for the Dame

[Cynosure]

That would be great for 'Maleficient'. That forecast would give it the third highest opening of the year only behind Frozen and Conan and the second highest gross only behind Frozen (well fourth and third once 'When Marnie Was There' starts its run).

[Ajbg]

Weekend Forecast [07/05-06]

01 (--) ¥680 million ($6.6 million), 0, Maleficent (Disney) NEW

02 (--) ¥230 million ($2.2 million), 0, ¥310 million ($3.0 million), Edge of Tomorrow (Warner Bros.) NEW

03 (01) ¥209 million ($2.0 million), -24%, ¥24.65 billion ($241.9 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 17

04 (02) ¥133 million ($1.2 million), -22%, ¥890 million ($8.7 million), Mission Impossible: Samurai (Shochiku) Week 3

05 (--) ¥90 million ($880,000), 0, ¥120 million ($1.1 million), Documentary of AKB48: The Time Has Come (Toho Video Division) NEW

06 (04) ¥82 million ($800,000), -27%, ¥340 million ($3.3 million), Thirst (Gaga) Week 2

07 (--) ¥75 million ($730,000), 0, Anpanman: The Apple Boy and Everyone's Wishes! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW

08 (03) ¥70 million ($680,000), -41%, ¥320 million ($3.1 million), Transcendence (Shochiku/Pony Canyon) Week 2

09 (05) ¥64 million ($620,000), -35%, ¥1.24 billion ($12.1 million), Noah (Paramount) Week 4

10 (06) ¥43 million ($410,000), -49%, ¥200 million ($1.9 million), The Grudge: The Beginning of the End (Showgate) Week 2

And after 16-consecutive weeks or 4-straight months, we will finally get a new #1 film at the box-office! Congrats to Frozen for its incredible, record tying run atop the box-office.

>Maleficent looks poised to breakout (at least a a bit above expectations) with strong pre-sales and robust morning/afternoon ticket sales as well. If it opens to ¥600/700 million ($6-7 million), then it could get it to ¥4.5-5 billion ($45-50 million).

So, depending on where its run ends up in China and Mexico, Japan looks like it could be Angelina Jolie's best market once again (last 3 being Changeling, The Tourist, and Salt) since both of those markets look to finish below $50 million.

>Edge of Tomorrow is struggling somewhat out of the gate with a Friday that indicates a weekend of ¥200-250 million. Last weekend's previews looked solid, and they were widespread, so they could be causing a deflated opening. If its total is over ¥400 million ($4 million) after including Friday and last weekend's previews, I wouldn't be too worried about the "low" debut. It could still be a ¥2 billion ($20 million) contender, which would improve upon Oblivion by 50%. Tom Cruise's star power in Japan does seem to be fading, however.

Is this based in actual saturday sales?

Now, it seems good.

Edited July 5, 2014 by Ajbg

[Dingdong123]

$6.6M!!! Amazing!! I think with that number $50M is doable and 700M WW might just be reached.

[Corpse]

Is this based in actual saturday sales?Now, it seems good.

Pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales compared to several films at the same point in time since 2010.

[Ajbg]

With 50 million in Japan, Maleficent will be Jolie's biggest, including animated (it'll pass Kung Fu Panda 2).And it'll do close to 700 million.

[Mojoguy]

6.6m? Great news for Maleficent! It's quite fitting that it will be a Disney fairy tale movie that takes the top spot from Frozen in Japan.

[Ajbg]

I went to BOM and saw Alice's numbers. It had 14 million first weekend.But I think that in 2010 Japan market was bigger.

[rockNrollaDIM]

La Jolie:worthy:

[Corpse]

I went to BOM and saw Alice's numbers. It had 14 million first weekend.But I think that in 2010 Japan market was bigger.

No, the Japanese box-office has been pretty much the same size since the early 2000s.  

 

Alice in Wonderland just had Tim Burton, and Johnny Depp at his peak plus 80%+ 3D share.  The Alice in Wonderland property is also really, really popular in Japan.  Alice in Wonderland is referenced in a lot of local material. I wouldn't expect too much of a drop for Alice in Wonderland 2 in 2 years. 

[Dingdong123]

I went to BOM and saw Alice's numbers. It had 14 million first weekend.But I think that in 2010 Japan market was bigger.

And Oz made just $18M total. LOL.

[lab276]

No, the Japanese box-office has been pretty much the same size since the early 2000s.

The drop in 2011 was huge, can it be completely explained by the tsunami?

[Hilderic]

And Oz made just $18M total. LOL.

Isn't Oz mostly popular in America (and to a lesser, though still large, extent the Commonwealth)?

[Ajbg]

No, the Japanese box-office has been pretty much the same size since the early 2000s. Alice in Wonderland just had Tim Burton, and Johnny Depp at his peak plus 80%+ 3D share.  The Alice in Wonderland property is also really, really popular in Japan.  Alice in Wonderland is referenced in a lot of local material. I wouldn't expect too much of a drop for Alice in Wonderland 2 in 2 years.

I forgot about the 3D fever. It was the second 3D movie (after Avatar), and made 1 billion worldwide because of the fever.

[Mojoguy]

The drop in 2011 was huge, can it be completely explained by the tsunami?

Tangled boxoffice run in Japan was hit hard by the earthquake. I imagine it would have made way more if it the disaster hadn't happened.

[Mojoguy]

And Oz made just $18M total. LOL.

Japan doesn't give a crap about Oz.

[Hilderic]

All-Time Top-Grossing Films (USD)01 :: $249.0 million - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: $237.9 million - Frozen (2014) [108 Days in Release]03 :: $212.0 million - Titanic (1997)

Are the numbers for Spirited Away (whether $244m or $249m rather than $229m) found in any official report/ box office tracking website? Or do they come from box office analysis of the chart run by independent users on forums?

[BobbyJohn]

 

Maleficent looks poised to breakout (at least a a bit above expectations) with strong pre-sales and robust morning/afternoon ticket sales as well.  If it opens to ¥600/700 million ($6-7 million), then it could get it to ¥4.5-5 billion ($45-50 million).  

 

So, depending on where its run ends up in China and Mexico, Japan looks like it could be Angelina Jolie's best market once again (last 3 being Changeling, The Tourist, and Salt) since both of those markets look to finish below $50 million.

$50m is defnitely needed from Japan for 700m WW. In China, $50m is the absolute roof, more likely 45-47.

Edited July 5, 2014 by BobbyJohn

[Corpse]

Are the numbers for Spirited Away (whether $244m or $249m rather than $229m) found in any official report/ box office tracking website? Or do they come from box office analysis of the chart run by independent users on forums?

The latter.  And that's why I never bold USD totals.  It is certain it made over $229 million though, there's no disputing this fact.  A lot of websites just go to BOM for their numbers, too, and Spirited Away's weekly performance at BOM is messy (and that's putting it very, very kindly).  

 

Just look at THIS: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=JP&id=spiritedaway.htm

 

That's not right in any world. LOL.  It's total goes up and down (peaking in week 33...), and its increase in total is less than it made for just the weekend fame for most of those weeks BOM has tracked.

 

Never use BOM for figures if there's any detailed analysis provided by someone else, even if it's a forum member like you or me.  BOM has a lot of wrong numbers.