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[Corpse]

Marine Day Weekend 3-Day Forecast (07/19-21)

 

01 (--) ¥510 million ($5.0 million), 0, ¥730 million ($7.2 million), Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Toho) NEW

02 (--) ¥460 million ($4.5 million), 0, ¥690 million ($6.8 million), Memories of Marnie (Toho) NEW

03 (01) ¥446 million ($4.4 million), -26%, ¥670 million ($6.6 million), Maleficent (Disney) Week 3

04 (--) ¥220 million ($2.1 million), 0, ¥315 million ($3.1 million), Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! The Golden Fruit Cup (Toei) NEW

05 (--) ¥140 million ($1.3 million), 0, ¥210 million ($2.0 million), Planes: Fire & Rescue (Disney) NEW

06 (02) ¥126 million ($1.2 million), -32%, ¥180 million ($1.7 million), Edge of Tomorrow (Warner Bros.) Week 3

07 (03) ¥105 million ($1.0 million), -34%, ¥145 million ($1.4 million), Say, "I Love You" (Shochiku) Week 2

08 (04) ¥86 million ($840,000), -37%, ¥125 million ($1.2 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 19

09 (05) ¥64 million ($620,000), -23%, ¥95 million ($930,000), Mission Impossible: Samurai (Shochiku) Week 5

10 (07) ¥36 million ($350,000), -30%, ¥50 million ($490,000), Thirst (Gaga) Week 4

 

This is going to be a close weekend between openers Pokemon XY, Memories of Marnie, and Maleficent in its 3rd week of release.

 

Pokemon XY has the best morning ticket sales from all the locations I've tracked, but it'll gradually die down as the day goes on until it comes to a drastic decline in the evening.  Marnie and Maleficent have way more showtimes then (and on the bigger screens) to make up any lost ground they lost during the morning showings.

 

However, none of them appear to be doing well enough this morning/afternoon to be assured over ¥500 million ($5 million) for the weekend frame, but they also look good enough to be over ¥400 million ($4 million).  It looks to be a 3-way battle for the top spot, though if we go by just admissions, Pokemon XY probably  has the slight advantage.  It'll need to beat Marnie and Maleficent by a solid amount though to beat them in gross since its avg. ticket price will be much lower than either of them.  

 

I'm hoping that I'm underpredicting the weekend all together though and end up very wrong.  If nothing breaks the ¥500 million mark over the weekend, then it'll be the first time since.. I'm getting 1992, that no film has done so.  The Marine Day Holiday Weekend is traditionally the strongest weekend at the box-office, so that would be a pretty big blow to the start of the Summer box-office season.  

 

Hopefully, by some chance, Saturday just appears weak right now since there is a 3-day Holiday weekend and Sunday also happens to be a Movix Cinema (4th largest chain) discount day.

Edited July 19, 2014 by Corpse

[Ajbg]

Marine Day Weekend 3-Day Forecast (07/19-21)

 

01 (--) ¥510 million ($5.0 million), 0, ¥730 million ($7.2 million), Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Toho) NEW

02 (--) ¥460 million ($4.5 million), 0, ¥690 million ($6.8 million), Memories of Marnie (Toho) NEW

03 (01) ¥446 million ($4.4 million), -26%, ¥670 million ($6.6 million), Maleficent (Disney) Week 3

04 (--) ¥220 million ($2.1 million), 0, ¥315 million ($3.1 million), Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! The Golden Fruit Cup (Toei) NEW

05 (--) ¥140 million ($1.3 million), 0, ¥210 million ($2.0 million), Planes: Fire & Rescue (Disney) NEW

06 (02) ¥126 million ($1.2 million), -32%, ¥180 million ($1.7 million), Edge of Tomorrow (Warner Bros.) Week 3

07 (03) ¥105 million ($1.0 million), -34%, ¥145 million ($1.4 million), Say, "I Love You" (Shochiku) Week 2

08 (04) ¥86 million ($840,000), -37%, ¥125 million ($1.2 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 19

09 (05) ¥64 million ($620,000), -23%, ¥95 million ($930,000), Mission Impossible: Samurai (Shochiku) Week 5

10 (07) ¥36 million ($350,000), -30%, ¥50 million ($490,000), Thirst (Gaga) Week 4

 

This is going to be a close weekend between openers Pokemon XY, Memories of Marnie, and Maleficent in its 3rd week of release.

 

Pokemon XY has the best morning ticket sales from all the locations I've tracked, but it'll gradually die down as the day goes on until it comes to a drastic decline in the evening.  Marnie and Maleficent have way more showtimes then (and on the bigger screens) to make up any lost ground they lost during the morning showings.

 

However, none of them appear to be doing well enough this morning/afternoon to be assured over ¥500 million ($5 million) for the weekend frame, but they also look good enough to be over ¥400 million ($4 million).  It looks to be a 3-way battle for the top spot, though if we go by just admissions, Pokemon XY probably  has the slight advantage.  It'll need to beat Marnie and Maleficent by a solid amount though to beat them in gross since its avg. ticket price will be much lower than either of them.  

 

I'm hoping that I'm underpredicting the weekend all together though and end up very wrong.  If nothing breaks the ¥500 million mark over the weekend, then it'll be the first time since.. I'm getting 1992, that no film has done so.  The Marine Day Holiday Weekend is traditionally the strongest weekend at the box-office, so that would be a pretty big blow to the start of the Summer box-office season.  

 

Hopefully, by some chance, Saturday just appears weak right now since there is a 3-day Holiday weekend and Sunday also happens to be a Movix Cinema (4th largest chain) discount day.

Corpse, do You have Maleficent total? Last week, it made around 6,7 million monday- friday. Probably 5,5 million this week.

So around 32 million monday (21)? Thank You in advance.

[Corpse]

It was at 2.3 billion ($22.7 million) on Wednesday, so maybe 2.5/2.6 billion ($25/26 million) going into the weekend.  3.1-3.3 billion ($31-33 million) is the likely range after Monday.  

[Cynosure]

The Pokemon franchise has really lost its strengh in Japan in recent years. It's now on par if not below the Doraemon and Detective Conan franchises where as it used to blow them out of the water easily just a few years ago. And neither Doraemon or Detective Conan have the 'new generation' gimmick either.

Edited July 19, 2014 by Cynosure

[Corpse]

The Pokemon franchise has really lost its strengh in Japan in recent years. It's now on par if not below the Doraemon and Detective Conan franchises where as it used to blow them out of the water easily just a few years ago. And neither Doraemon or Detective Conan have the 'new generation' gimmick either.

A lot of people think that the it's failing at attracting new, younger fans to the franchise.  

 

And Youkai Watch is seen as a upcoming major rival and may be taking a lot of potential younger new fans that Pokemon or other franchises could have gotten, if it hasn't already.

 

The newest game just sold over 1.3 million copies on the 3DS this past week.  That's less first week sales than Monster Hunter/Pokemon, but it's certainly catching up fast.  The anime has also been gaining more popularity.

 

The first Youkai Watch movie will be released Dec. 20th of this year.

Edited July 19, 2014 by Corpse

[Blackout]

It was at 2.3 billion ($22.7 million) on Wednesday, so maybe 2.5/2.6 billion ($25/26 million) going into the weekend.  3.1-3.3 billion ($31-33 million) is the likely range after Monday.  

 

50-60m finish?

[Cynosure]

Interesting. 'Youkai Watch' is indeed consistently getting better ratings on tv than Pokemon too (http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-07-02/japan-animation-tv-ranking-june-16-22/.76113 , http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-06-15/japan-animation-tv-ranking-june-2-8/.75599). Maybe 'Toho' will finally get their 4th annual hit franchise.

 

Or it could en up pulling an 'Inazuma Eleven'.

Edited July 19, 2014 by Cynosure

[Murgatroyd]

As the others have shown, it's not quite what you'd expect by the bread description. The Japanese word "pan" (pronounced sorta like "pahn") is a bit more encompassing, and includes a variety of filled buns or  pastries  as well as the traditional loafs you might expect. They're usually filled with a sweet paste, custard, or cream, but it can be savory. The full name will usually include a description of what's inside. Anpan for red bean paste. Kuripan for curry filling (I think, at least. My Japanese is really rusty and was never comprehensive.)

 

I can't quite read the labels of those images, so I'm not sure what flavor Anna and Elsa have.

 

I may need to check out Uwajimaya to see if they're available there.

 

Anna's filling is chocolate cream and "milk whip", which I've never heard of before but I assume is a relative of whipped cream.

Elsa's is raspberry jam and milk whip.

[Corpse]

50-60m finish?

Yeah, that's more or less been the projected range.  It may go a little above $60 million with some luck.

 

Interesting. 'Yokai Watch' is consistently pulling in better ratings on tv than Pokemon too (http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-07-02/japan-animation-tv-ranking-june-16-22/.76113 , http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-06-15/japan-animation-tv-ranking-june-2-8/.75599). Maybe 'Toho' will finally get their 4th annual hit franchise.

 

Yeah, its popularity has been blowing up this past year and I think it's very likely to be the next major franchise (gaming, anime, film, etc. all formats).  It's suppose to make its way to the Western markets soon, too. 

 

The second game sold 1.28 million copies in 4 days this past week.  That's quite huge.  By comparison, Pokemon X/Y sold 1.94 million, and Monster Hunter 4 sold 1.78 million in their first 4 days/week.  

Edited July 19, 2014 by Corpse

[Corpse]

 

It looks cute. (Note: This is a video from the game, not the anime which is 2D animation).  

 

And I'm a sucker for most games focusing on capturing monsters to battle with (Pokemon, Digimon, etc.).  

[lab276]

The Attack on Titan film in November is gonna be big right?

[Corpse]

The Attack on Titan film in November is gonna be big right?

It's the first half a two part film that is basically going to recap the series so far if I'm not mistaken.  I think it's also going to include some new scenes, too.  They'll probably be similar to the animated Death Note movie that recapped the series before the live-action films opened.  I don't think this will actually be that big, but the live-action film planned for sometime next year is one to keep an eye on.  

Edited July 19, 2014 by Corpse

[Incarnadine]

Frozen bluray sold 1.046 mil copies in 3 days

So, it took Frozen just one day to smash the all time Blue Ray Record and 3 days to more than double the record.

I wonder how long it will take for Frozen to beat Spirited Away's record for combined DVD/Blue Ray sales (2.402m)?

 

Out of curiosity, did the other big animated movies in Japan get the same kind of merchandising push Frozen seems to be getting? I mean, bread and ice cream? Elsa, Anna and Olaf alcoholic drinks? It seems Frozen is being marketed across the board vigorously.

[iceroll]

It's the first half a two part film that is basically going to recap the series so far if I'm not mistaken.  I think it's also going to include some new scenes, too.  They'll probably be similar to the animated Death Note movie that recapped the series before the live-action films opened.  I don't think this will actually be that big, but the live-action film planned for sometime next year is one to keep an eye on.  

So is it mostly just clips from the anime then? That's lame.

[Corpse]

So is it mostly just clips from the anime then? That's lame.

They'll surely edits moments of the anime, along with the new clips, to form an actual movie (or movies, considering it's two parts).  But the overall footage will largely be a recap of the series so far.  

 

I know people are worried about the live-action film that's coming next year after the animated recap films, and while the effects won't be near Hollywood level, the Japanese film industry has been improving in recent years.  The Gantz films, Gatchaman, Space Battleship Yamato, The Eternal Zero, and others are big improvements visual wise over films a decade or even 5 years ago.  And a lot of the industry's best are working on the Attack on Titan live-action film.

Edited July 19, 2014 by Corpse

[LABAS]

 

[順位] [販売数] [映画作品タイトル名]

 

　*1　*40900　Pokeman…

　*2　*19421   Marnie

　*3　*17284　Mal

　*4　*15530　劇場版仮面ライダー鎧武 烈車…

　*5　**6756　プレーンズ２ ファイアー＆レ…

　*6　**5808　好きっていいなよ。

　*7　**4150　オール・ユー・ニード・イズ・…

　*8　**3764　Frozen

13:37 Local Time

 

As we can see, Pokemon smashed Marnie in the morning sales.

[BadAtGender]

They'll surely edits moments of the anime, along with the new clips, to form an actual movie (or movies, considering it's two parts).  But the overall footage will largely be a recap of the series so far.  

 

I know people are worried about the live-action film that's coming next year after the animated recap films, and while the effects won't be near Hollywood level, the Japanese film industry has been improving in recent years.  The Gantz films, Gatchaman, Space Battleship Yamato, The Eternal Zero, and others are big improvements visual wise over films a decade or even 5 years ago.  And a lot of the industry's best are working on the Attack on Titan live-action film.

 

Yeah, the visuals for the live action Japanese films I've seen recently do seem to be pretty good. The writing, however, may leave something to be desired. The Rurouni Kenshin film was pretty great (if a little long), but Space Battleship Yamato was a chore to get through. Hopefully Attack on Titan is a bit stronger in that regard.

 

Somewhat related, has anyone seen the 20th Century Boys films? I'm not quite halfway through the manga and really enjoy it, but I'm wondering if the films are worth checking out at some point.

[Corpse]

Toho Cinemas Admissions [As of 02:30PM]:

27,625 - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (NEW)

12,902 - Memories of Marnie (NEW)

12,300 (-36%) - Maleficent (Week 3)

8,504 - Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (NEW)

4,628 - Planes: Fire & Rescue (NEW)

3,205 (-40%) - Say, "I Love You" (Week 2)

2,445 (-41%) - Frozen (Week 19)

2,155 (-46%) - Edge of Tomorrow (Week 3)

1,643 (-31%) - Mission Impossible: Samurai (Week 5)

1,643 (-28%) - Anpanman: The Apple Boy and Everyone's Wishes (Week 3)

 

 

Toho, Movix, 109, Kinezo Combined Admissions [As of 02:40PM]:

48,106 - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (NEW)

25,184 - Memories of Marnie (NEW)

24,195 - Maleficent (Week 3)

17,940 - Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (NEW)

8,012 - Planes: Fire & Rescue (NEW)

7,722 - Say, "I Love You" (Week 2)

5,434 - Edge of Tomorrow (Week 3)

4,690 - Mission Impossible: Samurai (Week 5)

4,385 - Frozen (Week 19)

2,949 - Anpanman: The Apple Boy and Everyone's Wishes (Week 3)

 

Pokemon has a strong lead, but it's tracking 8% behind last year's film at the same point in time at Toho Cinemas, and it only increased its admissions at this point by 29.7% for the rest of the day.  So at Toho Cinemas, it should be headed for 35,000-37,000 admissions for the day.  

 

That'll be really difficult for Marnie or Maleficent to reach, but they will close the gap considerably.  

[keysersoze123]

Underwhelming for marnie. Wasn't it listed as potential 10B grosser. Now it looks like it would be lucky to gross half that number.

 

Also Godzilla has a great chance to win next weekend for sure.

[edroger3]

4.30PM 4 chains, bad news for Marnie.

 

* 1 * 54497 Pokemon* 2 * 35739 Maleficent* 3 * 32699 Marnie