JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Max]

Impressive figures from Japan for Zootopia.

 

I must confess, I never thought until today that the billion mark would be possible but now I revise my judgement. The probability of Zootopia crossing $1B is very high. The Japanese market for sure is a gigantic one.

[Quigley]

Sorry to be a buzzkill but do we have any tracking or r we basing all this on Corpse's prediction?

[Cynosure]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

 

It's up on last saturday. One of the chains has a discount day but it should still be flat or increase for the overall weekend.

[cannastop]

　*1　*98443　ズートピア(Zootopia)

　*2　*45813　殿、利息でござる！(Tono, risoku de gozaru)

　*3　*45313　世界から猫が消えたなら(If Cats Disappeared)

 

It's ambiguous if this is a rise in yen from last week, due to discounts. I don't know if Zootopia is doing unexpectedly well, or if the new movies are unexpectedly weak. Anyways, it's more than doubled its nearest competition. Also, it seems like the Cat movie is doing worse than Corpse thought it would.

[cannastop]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

[Foul01]

tickets sold today according to http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/ is 98443

 

based on cinema breakdown data on the same website, TOHO contributed around 38% of all tickets.

if every cinema outside of TOHO sells at 1350 yen (TOHO is 1100 yen)... the average ticket price is 1242.5 yen

assuming, coverage to be 63% and exchange rate to be 108,

the box office gross in Japan today should be around $1.8M

 

 

 

[Foul01]

I honestly have no idea what to expect on Sunday.

 

Typically, Sunday will see a higher number of tickets sold than Saturday, but this Saturday is a discount day for TOHO.

 

The only comparison I found now is from between April 14 and April 15,

this is when バットマンｖｓスーパーマン ジャスティスの誕生  dropped 8% of tickets sold after TOHO's discount... but April 14 happened on a Thursday in this case... not sure how applicable this is.

 

Assuming the tickets sold drop is the same at 8%, but the average ticket price increased back to 1,350 yen... the estimate box office on Sunday is also around $1.8M 

 

This will bring this weekend's box office to around $3.6M... equal to last weekend, which is a pretty strong hold.

 

This last time that Cinderella managed to have a weekend box office of around that number was on their second weekend ($4.2M... granted it's a $0.6M difference, but their third weekend was only $2.7M)
Cinderella went on to gross another $31M after that weekend.

 

If Zootopia can go on a similar hold as Cinderella after this weekend, we could end up with a final gross in Japan of $64M ($29.4 + $3.6M + $31M = $64M)
it's a very optimistic number, and I estimated many things... we shall see how tomorrow holds first

[Quigley]

Even if makes a bit less than that estimate, $60M can still push it past $1B.

[GOXOG]

so how long it take to get to $1B 

[Foul01]

17 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Even if makes a bit less than that estimate, $60M can still push it past $1B.

 

I just realized there are still two holidays from Golden Week included in after $4.2M weekend... May 4 and May 5

Assuming $2M for each day, deduct both days from gross after Cinderella's weekend of $4.2M and using this as the reference for Zootopia drop from now on:

Zootopia final gross in Japan will be ($29.4M + $3.6M + $31M - $2M -$2M) = $60M

 

still a pretty good number considering Domestic is on its way to $338M, OS-Japan is at $602M now (potentially reaching $612M by the end), Japan will just need to do $50M

[Planodisney]

I think domestic is going to 340.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Foul01 said:

 

I just realized there are still two holidays from Golden Week included in after $4.2M weekend... May 4 and May 5

Assuming $2M for each day, deduct both days from gross after Cinderella's weekend of $4.2M and using this as the reference for Zootopia drop from now on:

Zootopia final gross in Japan will be ($29.4M + $3.6M + $31M - $2M -$2M) = $60M

 

still a pretty good number considering Domestic is on its way to $338M, OS-Japan is at $602M now (potentially reaching $612M by the end), Japan will just need to do $50M

There are 4 holidays in Golden Week. April 29, May 3, May 4 and May 5.

 

I don't know what exactly you're surprised by.

[Foul01]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

There are 4 holidays in Golden Week. April 29, May 3, May 4 and May 5.

 

I don't know what exactly you're surprised by.

 

not surprised, just forgot to take into consideration

[cannastop]

Corpse:

 

Quote

Usual Locations - Saturday Admissions (Two-Thirds of Overall Market)

[Sat., 05/14]
TW (LW) Admissions (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (01) 98,516 (+18%), [227/1,020], Zootopia (Disney) WK4
02 (---) 45,819 (------), [220/1,127], The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) NEW
03 (---) 45,346 (------), [214/1,228], If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) NEW
04 (02) 40,725 (-34%), [219/1,085], 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK2
05 (03) 36,553 (-34%), [221/942], Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK5
06 (04) 30,810 (-31%), [228/977], Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK3
07 (06) 25,618 (+35%), [94/156], Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) WK4
08 (07) 16,320 (-24%), [207/595], I Am a Hero (Toho) WK4
09 (08) 14,035 (-35%), [211/811], Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) WK3
10 (09) 13,496 (-44%), [218/455], Crayon Shin-chan: Fast Asleep! The Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK5
11 (05) 12,728 (-61%), [109/297], Road to High & Low (Shochiku) WK2
12 (---) 8,194 (------), [45/207], HK: Hentai Kamen - The Abnormal Crisis (Toei) NEW
13 (10) 6,348 (-42%), [218/278], The Revenant (Fox) WK4
14 (11) 5,763 (-46%), [220/507], Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) WK3
15 (---) 5,527 (------), [25/100], Hail, Caesar! (Toho-Towa) NEW
16 (---) 3,048 (------), [60190], Macbeth (Yoshimoto Kogyo, Co.) NEW
17 (12) 2,721 (-42%), [46/99], I've Always Liked You: Confession Executive Committee (Aniplex) WK4
18 (--) 2,375 (------), [24/24], Noragami Aragoto - Matsurigoto (Aniplex) NEW
19 (17) 2,192 (-33%), [204/207], Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK9
20 (13) 2,091 (-46%), [30/56], Ajin: Demi-Human - Collision - Part 2 (Toho) WK2
21 (19) 1,841 (-46%), [212/214], Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK8
22 (20) 1,738 (-28%), [29/52], Sound! Euphonium (Shochiku) WK4
23 (18) 1,637 (-41%), [155/179], Scanner (Toei) WK3
24 (14) 1,538 (-61%), [99/177], Maniac Hero (Toei) WK2
25 (16) 1,448 (-50%), [22/30], Spotlight (Long Ride) WK5

Zootopia's fourth Saturday admissions are up 3% compared to its opening day admissions. Incredible. Its fourth Sunday should come in comfortably below its first Sunday, since yesterday was boosted slightly from Toho Cinemas Day, but its fourth weekend won't be too far off its opening weekend. 

Its run has been on a smaller scale in terms of earnings when compared to Frozen and Big Hero 6, but so far it's having almost as impressive of a run as them (at least the latter). If it was only able to draw in a slightly older audience to have similar results on the weekdays, where it's noticeable weaker than its past studio predecessor's, then we could have been looking at an even more special run; it is still somewhat early, though, so let's wait and see what the following weeks hold in store.

The Magnificent Nine and If Cats Disappeared from the World are in a very close race to see which film will claim the second place position, but 64: Part 1 and even Detective Conan trail them closely enough that Sunday could still reward one of them the second place spot, too.

And finally, everyone's favorite pantie-masked forbidden superhero is doing his best at penetrating the Top 10, but he'll ultimately come in a bit shy. The second HK: Hentai Kamen film was very unlikely to make the Top 10 anyway, given the limited release, but it's actually doing somewhat well by achieving a decent 23% capacity for the day.

 

[cannastop]

And yet again, Zootopia beat expectations. I wonder if Corpse saw it coming.

[Max]

May I ask who is Corpse?

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Max said:

May I ask who is Corpse?

He posts on another site called worldofkj.

 

He used to post here, in fact.

[Tower]

Just now, Max said:

May I ask who is Corpse?

 

Someone who is fluent in Japanese and posts on another forum about Japanese box office, so people copy his posts that are full of information to here.

[Arlo245]

Zootopia is killing it! I think it could increase from yesterday as it is only 2pm and already has 2/3 of yesterday's gross. I think WOM is really starting to catch on with audiences.

 

AEON 1:53 PM JST 

    *1　*63307　ズートピア

　*2　*24837　殿、利息でござる！

　*3　*20614　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…

　*4　*19330　６４－ロクヨン－前編

[cannastop]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11427.html

 

With 66,007 sampled admissions at 14:00, this is a 23.9% increase from last week for Zootopia.