JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

On 5/24/2016 at 2:13 PM, No Prisoners said:

70m floor to 140m

Are you just humoring me?

[cannastop]

11 hours ago, Max said:

I... I have really no idea ^^'. It is even hard for me to accept that Zootopia can reach $80M.

 

But as you mentioned before, it is amazing how word of mouth can be powerful. I have this feeling that word of mouth works better in Asian countries like South Korea, Japan, China, than in Western countries, especially in Europe. My jaw literally dropped when I read that Zotoopia skyrocketed 2 weeks after its launch in Japan, considering that it started in the 2nd place. As @yjs said, they can go batshit crazy lol.

That was due to holidays. Golden Week in Japan.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Weekend Forecast (05/28-29)/2016年05月28日-2016年05月29日
01 (01) ¥428,000,000 ($3.9 million), -15%, ¥5,275,000,000 ($49.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK6
02 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) NEW
03 (02) ¥131,000,000 ($1.1 million), -07%, ¥775,000,000 ($7.1 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) WK3
04 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), The Huntsman: Winter's War (Toho-Towa) NEW
05 (03) ¥91,000,000 ($825,000), -33%, ¥830,000,000 ($7.6 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) WK3
06 (04) ¥90,000,000 ($815,000), -30%, ¥5,875,000,000 ($54.1 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK7
07 (05) ¥85,000,000 ($770,000), -25%, ¥1,200,000,000 ($11.3 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK4
08 (07) ¥70,000,000 ($635,000), -24%, ¥2,525,000,000 ($23.4 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK5
09 (06) ¥67,000,000 ($610,000), -39%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.8 million), After the Storm (Gaga) WK2
10 (08) ¥41,000,000 ($370,000), -50%, ¥2,125,000,000 ($18.3 million), Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) WK28

Zootopia is going to repeat atop the box office once again this weekend; achieving its fourth-consecutive weekend in the #1 position. If its past weekdays, and weekend pre-sales serve as an accurate indicator this week, it does appear the film has begun to cool down just a bit... but only just a bit. Its weekday-to-weekday business was down less than 10%, and its pre-sales for Saturday suggest a sub-20% hold, or possibly a single digit decline as well. It's going to cruise over the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion over the weekend, as it will then begin its journey to see how close it can get to the uber-blockbuster mark of ¥10 billion ($90 million).

Wolf Girl and Black Prince will provide the weekend with a decent opener, which may perhaps be the biggest opener of this year's May (if it beats 64: Part 1's ¥257.2 million from earlier this month). Its pre-sales are almost on par with last year's No Longer Heroine, which opened to ¥262.5 million in September.

The film is the latest live-action shojo adaptation, based on the popular manga of the same name 'Wolf Girl and Black Prince', directed by Hiroki Ryuichi and starring Fumi Nikaido and Kento Yamazaki in the lead roles.

The Huntsman: Winter's War is going to disappoint. The first film was a modest success (grossing ¥1.71 billion), but the sequel appears to be in poor shape. Based on its Friday opening (~¥35 million), it's only going to gross around ¥100 million or so over the weekend frame compared to the original's debut of ¥302 million.

 

[CelestialFairyIX]

Pray to the Box Office gods above that Zootopia has a single digit hold! 

[Murgatroyd]

 

The numbers are a bit lower, but this is like watching Frozen's run all over again.

[cannastop]

18 minutes ago, Murgatroyd said:

 

The numbers are a bit lower, but this is like watching Frozen's run all over again.

Did you join this place to talk about Frozen kind of like how I joined because of Zootopia?

[Mojoguy]

I wonder how well Moana does in Japan. WDAS movies are becoming a huge brand in Japan, even bigger than Pixar.

[cannastop]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

I wonder how well Moana does in Japan. WDAS movies are becoming a huge brand in Japan, even bigger than Pixar.

There's no telling how it will do anywhere, since we have no real trailers for it.

 

Also, I don't think WDAS is really a shining brand in Japan. If it was, Zootopia might have opened a bit bigger than it did.

[CelestialFairyIX]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

There's no telling how it will do anywhere, since we have no real trailers for it.

 

Also, I don't think WDAS is really a shining brand in Japan. If it was, Zootopia might have opened a bit bigger than it did.

Japan is not a front-loaded country in terms of box-office.  Unlike other countries where films dissipate after opening weekend, films usually gain traction and go on to gain phenomenal legs.  Yes, Zootopia's opening was quite low for such a branded and eventful film but keep in mind, Zootopia's opening was in line with the opening weekends of other hit animated films.  Additionally, no other branded animated film has ever opened before Golden Week, so no one (even Corpse) was able to determine any of the factors that would come into play when Zootopia did eventually release.  To add to the already immense bowl of "iffy" factors, Conan had opened to record shattering numbers and due to the highly front-loaded characteristic (one of the few film franchises in Japan that can boast about being front-loaded outside of superhero flicks and that's with a stunning 5x - 6x multiplier) of that particular franchise, no one expected Zootopia to topple the giant anyways.  I don't understand why people were expecting Big Hero 6 opening weekend numbers: Big Hero 6's marketing campaign was much more broad and extensive, the goodwill of Frozen carried very well onto Big Hero 6, and it opened during a very good of the year.  Zootopia on the other hand was slapped onto a time frame no other animated film had opened to, had a weak marketing campaign, and had to deal with the most front-loaded anime franchise.   

 

In terms of opening weekends for Studio Ghibli, Pixar, and other Disney animated films, this is where Zootopia stands:

 

Top Opening Weekends:

 

1. Howl's Moving Castle, $14.0 million

2. Toy Story 3, $11.1 million

3. Arrietty, $10.3 million

4. The Wind Rises, $9.8 million

5. Ponyo, $9.8 million

6. Spirited Away, $8.9 million

7. Finding Nemo, $8.4 million

8. Monsters University, $8.37 million

9. Tales From Earthsea, $7.9 million

10. Frozen, $7.5 million

10. The Incredibles, $7.3 million

11. Up, $7.2 million

12. Princess Mononoke, $6.1 million

13. Big Hero 6, $5.2 million

14. From Up on Poppy Hill, $4.9 million

15. Cars 2, $4.9 million

16. Wall-E, $4.8 million

17. Monsters Inc., $4.5 million

18. Ratatouille, $4.2 million

19. Zootopia, $4.0 million

20. Memories of Marnie, $3.7 million

21. Wreck-It Ralph, $3.7 million

22. The Cat Returns, $3.5 million

23. Cars, $3.5 million

24. Inside Out, $3.3 million

25. The Tale of Princess Kaguya, $2.9 million

26. The Good Dinosaur, $2.1 million

27. Brave, $1.9 million

28. Tangled, $1.7 million

 

Average: $6.1 million

 

However, keep in mind that the average final gross is around $86.9 million but Zootopia is expected to make $90+ million which would put it on track for the Top 10. 

  

[Jason]

On 5/23/2016 at 8:54 PM, No Prisoners said:

@Olive is usually conservative. I'm not if I see something interesting in the numbers.

I think it bumps at least one more time then worst case holds flat. Corpse will call for another 15% drop. I'll lock $100m/$1.05B topping PotC, Olive will say 80m

~snip~

 

So far, Corpse has called for another 15% drop, and Olive's prediction of ¥8.6B works out to roughly $80M.

 

Next prediction that's up for the test is Zootopia's performance this weekend. I'm definitely hoping for another bump.

[cannastop]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11642.html

 

*1　34052　159118　562　227　*78.7%　ズートピア(Zootopia)
*2　22302　166875　517　216　******　オオカミ少女と黒王子 (Wolf Girl and Black Prince)

21.3% drop for Zootopia. We'll see how the evening goes, though.

[POTUS 2020]

Yikes. Those other 2 movies pose any direct competition? Monsoon hitting Japan?

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Yikes. Those other 2 movies pose any direct competition? Monsoon hitting Japan?

There is no yikes once Zootopia passes $1 billion.

 

Anyways, I think Wolf Girl and Black Prince might be taking up the young woman audience.

Edited May 28, 2016 by cannastop

[LMAbacus]

3 hours ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

To add to the already immense bowl of "iffy" factors, Conan had opened to record shattering numbers and due to the highly front-loaded characteristic (one of the few film franchises in Japan that can boast about being front-loaded outside of superhero flicks and that's with a stunning 5x - 6x multiplier) of that particular franchise, no one expected Zootopia to topple the giant anyways.  I don't understand why people were expecting Big Hero 6 opening weekend numbers: Big Hero 6's marketing campaign was much more broad and extensive, the goodwill of Frozen carried very well onto Big Hero 6, and it opened during a very good of the year.  Zootopia on the other hand was slapped onto a time frame no other animated film had opened to, had a weak marketing campaign, and had to deal with the most front-loaded anime franchise. 

 

Conan is not an excuse. Zootopia opened a week after Conan, and Conan only opened to $11.1 million the previous week. Big Hero 6 opened at the same time as Yo-kai Watch, which earned $14.0 million.

[Foul01]

by the way,

 

is anyone keeping tarck of how many days Zootopia has been number 1 in Japan?

[m3racer123]

9 hours ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

Japan is not a front-loaded country in terms of box-office.  Unlike other countries where films dissipate after opening weekend, films usually gain traction and go on to gain phenomenal legs.  

 

I think everyone here already knows that lol!

[Fullbuster]

Finding Dory will beat Zootopia in Japan, at least it's very likely.

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Finding Dory will beat Zootopia in Japan, at least it's very likely.

Seeing Zootopia's drop this Saturday, I guess that's more likely than not.

Still by no means a guarantee, though.

[cannastop]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11656.html

*1　76165　316586　1115　227　*81.5%　ズートピア (Zootopia)
*2　51778　384798　1210　216　******　オオカミ少女と黒王子 (Wolf Girl and Black Prince)

 

Zootopia slightly improved its standing in the evening. The second place movie, Wolf Girl and Black Prince has a terrible rating on yahoo movies japan and Film Marks, so it might fade away quickly.

Edited May 28, 2016 by cannastop

[catlover]

14 hours ago, cannastop said:

There's no telling how it will do anywhere, since we have no real trailers for it.

 

Also, I don't think WDAS is really a shining brand in Japan. If it was, Zootopia might have opened a bit bigger than it did.

 

That's why he/she said it is becoming a huge brand. It might not be there yet, but it's getting there. I mean if Zootopia makes more than 9b yen, then that makes 3 WDAS movies in a row with 9b+ yen total. Not even Pixar could do that. Among all Pixar movies, only 3 made more than that. If that doesn't make WDAS a shining brand, I don't know what does.

Edited May 28, 2016 by catlover