JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Olive]

Umizaru will be huge.

[Corpse]

I'm amazed at the consistency of Pokemon.

It's the second biggest movie franchise in Japan, behind only Harry Potter which it'll eventually overtake (by 2020).

[Corpse]

I forgot an important note in the Weekend Forecast.Umizaru: Brave Hearts is the first local film to ever open before Saturday with the exception of Holidays falling in the middle of the week. Sometimes local films will be released on Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday during Obon Week or New Year Week, but otherwise, they're always released on Saturday. So that makes Umizaru: Brave Hearts the first to break this very, very long release pattern (maybe as long as 50+ years).The usual locations have Umizaru: Brave Hearts on Friday selling 46.1% of the average ticket sales of Umizaru: The Last Message during it's opening weekend (612,000/2 = 306,000 avg., so approx. 141,000). There's many factors to take into consideration (3D, different release periods, the unique Friday release, etc.) so it's hard to project an opening day figure but I'm going to guess its close to 200 million yen ($2.5 million), perhaps 180/190 million yen.If that's accurate, it's about 55% better than MIB 3's opening day (Friday) and 30% better than M:I-4's opening day (Friday). There is of course no local film comparison for Friday, which explains the odd breakdown/comparison that was given. Whatever a film makes on Friday can be multiplied by 5 (varies depending on the genre, time of year, etc) to get a rough opening weekend (Saturday and Sunday) figure which would give Umizaru: Brave Hearts an opening weekend (Saturday and Sunday only) near 900 million yen ($11 million+) or even 1 billion ($12 million+). Such a big opening weekend and then accounting for Friday's gross, and the Holiday Monday could mean a 4-day total of 1.5 billion yen ($20 million) is possible.All of this is mostly speculation though since there's not really a precedent to go on, and it does seem a little too strong and I don't wanna be disappointed if this data is misleading (all the rain could become an issue, too) but I have to assume at least the film is looking very good based on that report.

Edited July 14, 2012 by Corpse

[Olive]

how's the screen count for Brave Hearts?

[Corpse]

Biggest Screen Counts (Local)

Ponyo on a Cliff - 481 screens

Hero - 475 screens

Umizaru: The Last Message - 466 screens (277 3D, 189 2D)

From Kokuriko Hill - 457 screens

Umizaru: Brave Hearts - 449 screens

Howl's Moving Castle - 448 screens

The Borrower Arrietty - 447 screens

Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! - 447 screens

Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie - 446 screens (265 3D, 181 2D)

[Olive]

is this movie in 3D?

[Corpse]

No, but that certainly isn't stopping it from becoming a huge hit. Data coming up in the next post and it's very surprising.

[Corpse]

Toho is reporting that Umizaru: Brave Hearts bested Umizaru: The Last Message by 42%(!) on Saturday, and is now projecting Brave Hearts is on track for 10 billion yen ($125 million).If the 42% holds true for the weekend, then Brave Hearts will be doing over 800,000 admissions and 1 billion yen ($12.5 million) for Saturday and Sunday. The last films to break 800,000 admissions on opening weekend (Saturday and Sunday only) were Alice in Wonderland (828,000) in 2010 and One Piece Film Strong World in 2009 (819,000). Toho is well-known for projecting the maximum totals, so I wouldn't be calling a 10 billion yen ($125 million) total quite yet. If it would happen to make it there, it would be the first film since 2010 to do so (Pirates 4 and Harry Potter 7.2 fell short last year).http://eiga.com/news/20120714/10/I have work in an hour and Saturday data from the usual places will likely be released soon, but I'll have to post any updates later tonight.

[Olive]

That's insane.BTW, corpse, you're not Japanese?

[Corpse]

That's insane.

BTW, corpse, you're not Japanese?

It is likely the maximum potential Umizaru has. Toho always overprojects, and might get one of their projections right each year.

Haha, no, I'm not Japanese. I find it funny so many thought I was.

[Corpse]

It appears there won't be any weekend estimates due to the Holiday tomorrow (today in Japan), but theatre chains have begun updating their weekend results. I'll post those instead this week.

[John Marston]

does Spider-man's current cume include the holiday?

[Corpse]

does Spider-man's current cume include the holiday?

Did THR report a number? What was it?And no, whatever the figure is won't include the holiday.

[John Marston]

27.4M. Seems kind of low. is 50M even possible anymore?

[Corpse]

That sounds about right. I figure it's around 2.1/2.2 billion ($27/28 million) as of Sunday, and probably 2.3/2.4 billion ($29/30 million) with tomorrow's Holiday included. And $50 million is definitely still possible, and more likely to happen than not. You guys are underestimating legs in Japan, especially during Summer and Holidays. Films released in July tend to double their 3-week total (Spider-Man's being $27/28 million), but that might be a little too high for Spider-Man since it had previews. Still, 1.8/1.9 from here is certainly doable which puts it above $50 million. The avg. multiplier for a July release is about 7.5/8.

Edited July 16, 2012 by Corpse

[Corpse]

Toho

(July 14-15, Weekend Ranking)

1 Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) NEW

2 Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) NEW

3 The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) Week 3

4 Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) NEW

5 Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) Week 5

6 Thermae Romae (Toho) Week 12

7 Glow of Fireflies (Toho) Week 6

8 Rinjo: The Movie (TOEI) Week 3

9 Go! Anpanman: Revive Banana Island (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Week 2

10 The Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha (Aniplex) NEW

*Toho is the largest theater chain in the country, accounting for almost 25% of all screens.

Seeing Thermae Romae still so high up is astounding and probably means it saw a very small decrease this weekend, or possibly an increase. Toho will be it's best location, but maybe it's enough to remain the Top 10 for a twelfth week in the National Ranking.

I'll update the other major theater chains (Warner Mycal, Shikoku, and Sunshine) when they update their weekend rankings tonight.

Edited July 16, 2012 by Corpse

[Corpse]

Warner MyCal

(July 14-15, Weekend Ranking)

1 Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) NEW

2 Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) NEW

3 The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) Week 3

4 Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) NEW

5 Go! Anpanman: Revive Banana Island (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Week 2

Shikoku

(July 14-15, Weekend Ranking)

1 Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) NEW

2 Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) NEW

3 Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) NEW

4 The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) Week 3

5 Rinjo: The Movie (TOEI) Week 3

6 Man on a Ledge (Disney) Week 2

7 Go! Anpanman: Revive Banana Island (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Week 2

8 Glow of Fireflies (Toho) Week 6

9 The Life of Guskou Budori (Warner Bros.) Week 2

10 Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) Week 5

Edited July 16, 2012 by Corpse

[Corpse]

July 14-15 ONLY

(Weekend Admission Estimates)

Openers,

Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) 624,000 [337 Theaters, 450 Screens]

Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) 517,000 [347 Theaters, 351 Screens]

Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) 146,000 [203 Theaters]

Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha (Aniplex) 118,000 [50 Theaters]

Drudgery Train (TOEI) 19,000 [73 Theaters]

If the estimate holds for Brave Hearts, it achieved the most admissions on opening weekend this year beating The Amazing Spider-Man (even with it's 195,000 in previews included). It's also the most admissions on opening weekend in the Umizaru franchise, 11,000 more than The Last Message from 2010.

Pokemon is on par with last year's film. Depending on the actual, it'll be either the third or fourth best opening this year in admissions.

Spectacular for Magical Girl Lyrical Nanaho. There seems to be a little dispute over it's admissions though because it's comparison played at 40% less locations which may throw the estimate off.

Pretty crappy for Drudgery Train.

Weekend Figures, which will include Monday's Holiday, will be released in the morning.

Edited July 17, 2012 by Corpse

[Olive]

Umizaru 4day opening admission 1,223,437 :o1.56B yen

[Corpse]

Umizaru 4day opening admission 1,223,437 :o1.56B yen

Indeed. How did you find out? :PI'll have the weekend results up in a minute.