JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Corpse]

If TASM had the exchange rate SM3 did it would only be at $20 million or so after 4 weeks instead of the $33.5 total. You still can't compare them though because SM3 opened at the beginning of Golden Week, greatly inflating it's first week of released by having 4 National Holidays in 5 days. TASM is having, and will have, much better late legs. Summer Vacation just began in Japan and Obon Week is just 3 weeks away, too. It's not going to reach $60 million, but $50 million is still attainable.

[Corpse]

Biggest Thirteenth Weekends in the Top 10

Weekend Gross ¥ / $ :: Title :: Weekend Rank :: Gross-to-date

¥270,806,696 / $2.42 :: Spirited Away :: 1 :: ¥23,612,150,400 ($199.81)

¥231,950,087 / $1.74 :: Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone :: 2 :: ¥19,698,694,914 ($146.91)

¥204,969,587 / $2.29 :: Avatar :: 4 :: ¥14,267,117,534 ($157.51)

¥188,530,784 / $1.83 :: Howl's Moving Castle :: 3 :: ¥17,702,727,016 ($171.21)

¥149,353,544 / $1.38 :: The Last Samurai :: 3 :: ¥13,000,276,850 ($119.26)

¥121,237,690 / $1.12 :: Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! :: 6 :: ¥16,531,935,654 ($152.08)

¥94,666,377 / $.787 :: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets :: 4 :: ¥16,664,480,041 ($138.25)

¥68,098,958 / $.644 :: Ponyo :: 9 :: ¥14,915,260,530 ($146.22)

¥52,919,250 / $.479 :: Crying Out Love in the Center of the World :: 8 :: ¥7,827,617,769 ($70.61)

¥40,157,344 / $.369 :: Finding Nemo :: 8 :: ¥10,966,120,230 ($102.42)

¥37,898,949 / $.303 :: Monsters, Inc. :: 9 :: ¥9,229,507,392 ($74.11)

¥31,834,021 / $.281 :: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King :: 9 :: ¥10,600,978,150 ($94.17)

¥19,675,346 / $.251 :: Thermae Romae :: 10 :: ¥5,859,450,202 ($74.86)

Just realized 'Thermae Romae' managed another week in the Top 10, giving it it's thirteenth-consecutive week there. That makes it (funnily enough) the thirteenth film to achieve thirteen-consecutive weeks in the Top 10 since 2001 and places it among the elite company above.

Edited July 25, 2012 by Corpse

[iceroll]

July 21-22

Weekend Ranking

1 (1) Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) Week 2

2 (-) The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Toho) NEW

3 (2) Pokemon BW: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) Week 2

4 (4) Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) Week 2

5 (-) Brave (Disney) NEW

6 (3) The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) Week 4

7 (5) Magical Girl Lyrical Nanaho (Aniplex) Week 2

8 (7) Go Anpanman! Revive Banana Island (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Week 3

9 (8) Rinjo: The Movie (TOEI) Week 4

10 (9) Man on a Ledge (Disney) Week 3

-Umizaru: Brave Hearts claims it's second week on top. After 10 days, the film has grossed over ¥2.5 billion ($31 million) with 2 million admissions.

-The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki debuted on 381 screens to an impressive 276,326 admissions for a gross of ¥365,149,000 ($4.6 million). That's almost 3x as much as Hosoda's last film, 'Summer Wars', on par with Studio Ghibli's 'From Kokuriko Hill', and should lock up a ¥3 billion ($40 million) total with a good short at ¥4 billion ($50 million). Hosoda may indeed become Miyazaki's successor.

-Pokemon BW: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) exceeded ¥1 billion ($12.5 million) and 1 million admissions after 9 days.

-Brave debuted on 563 screens but failed in attracting an audience. The film only opened with 106,271 admissions for a gross of ¥147,806,800 ($1.9 million). 3D accounted for 57% of the weekend gross. This is bomb territory unless it manages extraordinary legs, but as tough as it is to imagine given Pixar's history, 1.5 billion ($20 million) is the absolute limit here. Such an underwhelming opening, and will surely become Pixar's lowest grossing film.. ever.

Dammit man, I thought Pixar films were a shoe-in to do well in Japan, what happened? Is a Scottish warrior princess theme unappealing?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Hollywood pics struggle at Japanese B.O.

Only 3 Hollywood movies (MI4 (because of TC) , MIB3 (because of WS), DS(because of JD ) )did more than 25M this year.

Edited July 26, 2012 by firedeep

[Olive]

Can TDKR break out ?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

doesnt look like so.

[Fullbuster]

Can TDKR break out ?

The Avengers will break out

[Tower]

Hollywood pics struggle at Japanese B.O.

Only 3 Hollywood movies (MI4 (because of TC) , MIB3 (because of WS), DS(because of JD ) )did more than 25M this year.

TASM did too, at the start of the second half.

[Corpse]

In response to questions above:In my opinion, 'Brave' disappointed because: 1. It looked too-dark (titled 'Merida and the Forest of Fear'), 2. Heavy local competition from 'Wolf Children', and to a lesser extent - 'Pokemon' and 'Anpanman', 3. So-so reviews and the follow-up to 'Cars 2', and 4. Families seem to be avoiding 3D when they can, and more than half of 'Brave's screens were 3D.The Dark Knight Rises is expected to do very well, in comparison with other superhero films (except Spider-Man), but that may or may not seem like a breakout to some people. If anyone is expected $40, $50 million or more please don't be disappointed when it doesn't reach those heights.

[Corpse]

July 28-29

Weekend Forecast

1 (1) Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) ¥440 million ($5.5 million), Week 3

2 (-) The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros.) ¥360 million ($4.6 million), NEW

3 (2) The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Toho) ¥290 million ($3.7 million), Week 2

4 (3) Pokemon BW: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) ¥225 million ($2.9 million), Week 3

5 (-) Naruto Shippudden: Road to Ninja (Toho) ¥170 million ($2.1 million), NEW

6 (-) Eight Ranger (Toho) ¥140 million ($1.8 million), NEW

7 (4) Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) ¥130 million ($1.6 million), Week 3

8 (5) Brave (Disney) ¥115 million ($1.5 million), Week 2

9 (6) The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) ¥110 million ($1.4 million), Week 5

10 (8) Go Anpanman! Revive Banana Island (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) ¥30 million ($375,000), Week 4

'Umizaru: Brave Hearts' will likely remain on top for it's third-consecutive weekend. And looking at the upcoming schedule, if it holds off the new 'Kamen Rider' film next weekend, it could stay in first through Obon Week (the middle of August).

'The Dark Knight Rises' is looking at perhaps the best superhero opening of all-time, besides the Spider-Man franchise.

It's predecessor opened in second place with ¥333 million ($3.1 million), but ¥141 million ($1.3 million) in previews were included making it's opening weekend just ¥192 million ($1.8 million). Buzz has been pretty high for 'The Dark Knight Rises' all year though, and it should be able to match or just exceed the ¥333 million figure.

The latest 'Naruto' film has some sort of DVD giveaway promotion happening this weekend and is expected to open higher than the past few films. I'm not going to over-predict though and go with an opening about 40% higher than last year's film. If it does reach ¥200 million or upsets 'Pokemon' in it's third weekend (which it always fails to do each year), I'll be a surprise.

Weekend Milestone Watch:

'Umizaru' will exceed ¥3.5 billion ($45 million) after 17 days.

'Spider-Man' may reach ¥3 billion ($38 million) after 30 days.

'Pokemon' will exceed ¥1.5 billion ($20 million) after 16 days.

'Heruta Skelter' will exceed ¥1 billion ($12.5 million) after 16 days.

'Wolf Children' may reach ¥1 billion ($12.5 million) after 9 days.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Corpse

[RTX]

That's a very optimistic prediction for TDKR. It could hit 30M total with this opening. The last Batman film only made 14M.

[kayumanggi]

Where is BRAVE at now?

[Corpse]

That's a very optimistic prediction for TDKR. It could hit 30M total with this opening. The last Batman film only made 14M.

It's not a fair comparison, comparing USD totals rarely is, because of the exchange rate. The 1.65 billion yen TDK made would be $21 million this year. TDKR is expected to do up to 2 billion yen ($25 million). That would be a 60%+ increase over TDK in USD, but in actuality, it would be a 20-30% increase in yen and admissions. Ticket prices are the same every year, so yen and admissions make for a fair comparison. 'Brave' will probably be close to 500 million yen ($7 million) after Sunday. I don't report what films do on Ladies' Day (every Wednesday), but it made about 70% of it's opening weekend yesterday meaning it has strong female appeal and weekdays will be where the bulk of it's gross will come from. Edited July 27, 2012 by Corpse

[Corpse]

User Reviews

Eiga :: Yahoo! Movies :: goo :: Pia :: Average Score

Openers (Wide)

4.50 :: 4.51 :: 4.00 :: 4.25 :: 4.19 Avg. :: The Dark Knight Rises

4.00 :: 4.18 :: 4.00 :: 4.00 :: 4.05 Avg. :: Naruto Shippuden: Road to Ninja

4.00 :: 3.62 :: 3.50 :: 4.15 :: 3.81 Avg. :: Eight Ranger

Holdovers (Last Week's Top 12)

4.00 :: 4.39 :: 4.25 :: 4.50 :: 4.29 Avg. :: Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha 2nd A's :: July

4.00 :: 4.29 :: 4.00 :: 4.25 :: 4.14 Avg. :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: July

4.00 :: 4.10 :: 4.30 :: 4.00 :: 4.10 Avg. :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: July

4.00 :: 3.63 :: 3.70 :: 3.60 :: 3.73 Avg. :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June

3.50 :: 3.87 :: 3.50 :: 3.75 :: 3.66 Avg. :: Man on a Ledge :: July

3.50 :: 3.65 :: 3.80 :: 3.50 :: 3.61 Avg. :: Thermae Romae :: April

3.50 :: 3.68 :: 4.00 :: 3.15 :: 3.58 Avg. :: Rinjo: The Movie :: June

3.50 :: 3.49 :: 3.50 :: 3.65 :: 3.54 Avg. :: Brave :: July

4.00 :: 3.40 :: 3.00 :: 2.40 :: 3.20 Avg. :: Go Anpanman! Revive Banana Island :: July

4.00 :: 3.10 :: 3.00 :: 2.20 :: 3.08 Avg. :: Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo :: July

3.50 :: 2.76 :: 2.65 :: 3.30 :: 3.05 Avg. :: Glow of Fireflies :: May

2.50 :: 2.79 :: 2.55 :: 3.35 :: 2.80 Avg. :: Heruta Skelter :: July

[Corpse]

Weekend Report

'The Dark Knight Rises' is doing very well, and should easily top it's predecessor's opening weekend. It's going to be in a close race for first place this weekend against 'Umizaru' in it's third weekend. Both pics are aiming for ¥400 million+ / $5.5 million+.

The latest 'Naruto' film is seeing many sell outs due to it's DVD promotion and it was reportedly tracking 89% ahead of last year's film yesterday. With such an incredible increase, ¥250 million / $3 million looks reasonable with a small chance at ¥300 million / $4 million (I suspect it'll drop on Sunday). That will put it in a similar range as 'Wolf Children's' second weekend and Pokemon's third weekend for a three-way contest for third place.

[Olive]

5.5 million is very good, has a shot at 30m finish?

[Corpse]

A $5.5 million opening would actually give it closer to $40 million (assuming the exchange rate doesn't change much over the next couple months). The avg. multiplier is about 6, so $30 million would be the absolute minimum, but during the summer most films get 7 or 8 multipliers resulting in about $40 million or a tad more. I know I said $40 or $50 million wouldn't happen earlier in the week, but it may indeed have a chance based on these reports. I would like to note though that if it happens, it'll be because of the incredibly weak dollar right now. If this was any year before 2010, $30 million would have been the ceiling. TDKR is definitely a breakout Hollywood needed so desperately this year. It could even finish within $10 million of Spider-Man in an unexpected event.Many films are seeing sell outs this weekend, so hopefully we're in for a strong weekend. In the past, this weekend has seen some single digit drops and increases before.

Edited July 29, 2012 by Corpse

[lab276]

Is Umizaru still on-track for ¥10b?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

TDKR beaks out in Japan. A big surprise !

[redfirebird2008]

A $5.5 million opening would actually give it closer to $40 million (assuming the exchange rate doesn't change much over the next couple months). The avg. multiplier is about 6, so $30 million would be the absolute minimum, but during the summer most films get 7 or 8 multipliers resulting in about $40 million or a tad more. I know I said $40 or $50 million wouldn't happen earlier in the week, but it may indeed have a chance based on these reports. I would like to note though that if it happens, it'll be because of the incredibly weak dollar right now. If this was any year before 2010, $30 million would have been the ceiling. TDKR is definitely a breakout Hollywood needed so desperately this year. It could even finish within $10 million of Spider-Man in an unexpected event.Many films are seeing sell outs this weekend, so hopefully we're in for a strong weekend. In the past, this weekend has seen some single digit drops and increases before.

TDK only made $14.6m in Japan and TDKR is looking at $40-50m? That's an awesome increase. :)EDIT: Regarding the exchange rate, it really is a mess around the world right now. In Britain, TDKR could match TDK's admissions and will come up way short in dollar gross because of how bad the exchange rate is right now. So the opposite effect in Japan is good to see for the film. Helps cancel out some of the bad exchange rate markets like Britain. Edited July 29, 2012 by redfirebird2008